Week 7 BTBS Picks

No need for a Saturday morning live thread with the Mizzou game starting so early, so here's a quick, bare-bones post just to get the picks on record.

It was the picks' first good week in a while last week ... but it looked like it was going to be a lot better.  Things started out at an 11-2 clip (.846), and we were still at 24-17-2 until a 1-7 slump brought us back to 25-24-2.  Luckily, a nice four-game win streak ended the week.

Last Week's Results

Week 6 Season
29-24-2 .547 132-153-5 .464
Big 12 Games
3-3 .500 21-28 .429
Upset Picks
1-3 .250 8-15-1 .354
1-0 1.000 4-6 .400
"Feeling Safe"
2-3 .400 14-16 .467
"Feeling Queasy"
5-0 1.000 17-11-1 .603
0-5 point spread
7-8 .467 37-39-1 .487
5-10 points
7-12-2 .381 35-41-2 .462
10-20 points 5-3 .625 26-49-1 .349
20-30 points
7-0 1.000 26-14 .650
30+ points
2-2 .500 7-11 .389

I'm not sure what it is about the 20-30 point range, but the picks in that range continue to do quite well.  And yes, the picks I really didn't like went 5-0 last week.  Of course they did.

This week's picks after the jump.

Your notes:

  • "LOCKS" signify games where the spread and projection are more than 17 points apart.  At this point, LOCKS are rare, as Vegas seems to have hacked into my damn computer.
  • If there is a "(!)" next to the spread, that means the projection and spread are within 2 points of each other ... and you should probably lay off of these picks if you are the betting type.  There are far too many of these this week.
  • Verdicts in all caps signify games where the underdog is picked to win straight up.
Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
10/13 7:00pm Central Florida at Marshall UCF by 8.8 UCF -4.5 C. Florida (W)
10/14 6:30pm S. Florida at W. Virginia WVU by 16.9 WVU -10.5 W. Virginia (W)
Kansas State at Kansas KSU by 14.8 KSU -2.5 Kansas St. (W)
10/15 7:00pm Cincinnati at Louisville Louisville by 2.9 Louisville +3 LOUISVILLE (L)
10/16 11:00am Missouri at Texas A&M Mizzou by 8.1 Mizzou +3.5 MIZZOU
Boston Coll. at Florida St. FSU by 24.5 FSU -21.5 Florida St.
Vanderbilt at Georgia Georgia by 6.9 (?) Georgia -14 Vanderbilt
Arkansas State at Indiana Indiana by 6.4 (?) Indiana -10 Arkansas St.
Illinois at Michigan St. MSU by 6.99 MSU -7 (!) Illinois
N.C. State at E. Carolina N.C. St. by 11 N.C. St. -7.5 N.C. St.
Pittsburgh at Syracuse Pitt by 7.1 Pitt -1 Pittsburgh
Maryland at Clemson Clemson by 16.3 Clemson -14 Clemson
Southern Miss at Memphis So. Miss by 16.7 So. Miss -14.5 So. Miss
Miami-OH at C. Michigan C. Mich. by 12.5 C. Mich. by 13 (!) Miami-OH
Minnesota at Purdue Purdue by 5.2 Purdue -5.5 (!) Minnesota
12:00pm Miami-FL at Duke Miami by 29.0 Miami -19.5 Miami
Bowling Green at Temple Temple by 14.5 Temple -20 Bowl. Green
E. Michigan at Ball State Ball St. by 3.8 Ball St. -15 E. Michigan
1:00pm UNLV at Colorado St. Colo. St. by 1.1 Colo. St. -3 (!) Unlv
Army at Rutgers Rutgers by 8.2 Rutgers -7 (!) Rutgers
Akron at Ohio Ohio by 17.0 Ohio -16.5 (!) Ohio
1:30pm W. Michigan at Notre Dame Irish by 24.5 Irish -24 (!) Notre Dame
2:30pm Arkansas at Auburn Auburn by 12.3 Auburn -3.5 Auburn
California at USC Cal by 5.5 Cal +2.5 CALIFORNIA
Middle Tenn. at Ga. Tech Ga. Tech by 18.6 Ga. Tech -19 (!) Mid. Tenn.
Iowa at Michigan Iowa by 2.3 Iowa -3.5 (!) Michigan
Texas at Nebraska Nebraska by 22.4 Nebraska -9.5 Nebraska
Houston at Rice Houston by 12.2 Houston -9.5 Houston
Wake Forest at Va. Tech Va Tech by 30.5 Va Tech -22.5 Va Tech
SMU at Navy Navy by 2.9 Navy -1.5 (!) Navy
Buffalo at N. Illinois NIU by 12.9 NIU -14.5 (!) Buffalo
Oklahoma St. at Tex. Tech OSU by 6.5 OSU +3.5 OSU
3:00pm UTEP at UAB UAB by 8.2 UAB -2.5 Uab
Idaho at La. Tech La Tech by 0.4 La Tech +1.5 LA TECH
BYU at TCU TCU by 32.7 TCU -29.5 Tcu
5:00pm S. Carolina at Kentucky S. Caro. by 14.5 S. Caro. -5.5 S. Carolina
N. Carolina at Virginia UNC by 8.0 UNC -6.5 (!) N. Carolina
Utah at Wyoming Utah by 22.8 Utah -20.5 Utah
6:00pm Baylor at Colorado Colorado by 6.0 Colorado +1.5 COLORADO
Miss. St. at Florida Florida by 6.6 Florida -7.5 (!) Miss. St.
UL-Monroe at W. Kentucky W. Ky. by 2.9 W. Ky. -2 (!) W. Kentucky
Iowa State at Oklahoma OU by 28.0 OU -23 Oklahoma
Tulane at Tulsa Tulsa by 7.7 Tulsa -18.5 Tulane
Ohio State at Wisconsin Ohio St. by 20.9 Ohio St. -4 Ohio State
Kent State at Toledo Toledo by 12.1 Toledo -3.5 Toledo
UL-Lafayette at Troy Troy by 19.6 Troy -20 (!) UL-Lafayette
6:30pm Fla. Int'l at N. Texas Fla. Int'l by 2.2 Fla. Int'l -5.5 N. Texas
Arizona at Washington St. Arizona by 33.4 Arizona -23.5 Arizona
7:00pm Air Force at San Diego St. SDSU by 1.1 SDSU +1 SAN DIEGO ST.
Boise State at San Jose St. Boise by 43.4 Boise -41 Boise State
8:00pm Ole Miss at Alabama Alabama by 23.6 Alabama -20.5 Alabama
9:15pm Oregon St. at Washington Oregon St. by 12.6 Oregon St. +1.5 OREGON ST.
9:30pm New Mex. St. at Fresno St. Fresno by 29.4 Fresno -30.5 (!) Nmsu
10:30pm Nevada at Hawaii Nevada by 5.5 Nevada -6.5 (!) Hawaii

Picks I am Feeling Safest About:

  1. N.C. State -7.5 East Carolina.  I really like N.C. State this season.

  2. Southern Miss -14.5 Memphis.  Memphis is, um, really bad.

  3. La. Tech +1.5 Idaho.  No idea why Idaho is favored in this one.  It's a long trip, and Idaho's just not very good.

  4. UNC -6.5 Virginia.  Apparently the Cavaliers shot their wad a month ago, and UNC is a lot better than I'd have expected with what they lost.

  5. Oklahoma -23 Iowa State.  Needless to say, if Iowa State can lose by 41 at home to Utah ... well ...

Picks I am Feeling Queasiest About:

  1. Vanderbilt +14 Georgia.  If last week wasn't just a one-week blip for Georgia, the Dawgs will win by much more than 14.

  2. Michigan +3.5 Iowa.  I think Iowa is perfectly built to shut Denard Robinson down.  Iowa by 10-14.

  3. S. Carolina -5.5 Kentucky.  5.5 points is such a perfect line for this one with all the letdown potential for South Carolina.

  4. Ohio State +4 Wisconsin.  Just have a feeling about this one ...

  5. New Mexico State +30.5 Fresno State.  Fresno's just as likely to win by 45 as 20 ...
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