Post-GameDay Live Thread and Week 8 BTBS Picks

Top Of Jesse

UPDATE: Looks like a 28-23 record for the week.

Don't have a ton of time to throw this together, but here are the basics.

Last Week's Results

Week 7 Season
29-24-1 .546 161-177-6 .477
Big 12 Games
4-2 .667 25-30 .455
Upset Picks
3-4 .429 11-19-1 .371
0-0 N/A 4-6 .400
"Feeling Safe"
4-1 .800 18-17 .514
"Feeling Queasy"
1-4 .200 18-15-1 .544
0-5 point spread
12-7 .632 49-46-1 .516
5-10 points
4-8 .333 39-49-2 .444
10-20 points 5-8 .385 31-57-1 .354
20-30 points
3-5 .375 29-19 .604
30+ points
2-0 1.000 9-11 .450

Another solid week after a series of awful ones, but something feels off about this week's picks.  We'll see.

This week's picks after the jump.

Your notes:

  • "LOCKS" signify games where the spread and projection are more than 17 points apart.  At this point, LOCKS are rare, as Vegas seems to have hacked into my damn computer.
  • If there is a "(!)" next to the spread, that means the projection and spread are within 2 points of each other ... and you should probably lay off of these picks if you are the betting type.  There are far too many of these this week.
  • Verdicts in all caps signify games where the underdog is picked to win straight up.
Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
10/21 8:00pm UCLA at Oregon Oregon by 20.1 Oregon -22 Ucla (L)
10/22 8:00pm South Florida at Cincinnati Cincinnati by 11.5 Cincinnati -7.5 Cincy (L)
10/23 11:00am Michigan State at Northwestern Mich. St. by 25.3 Mich. St. -6 Mich. St. (LOCK) (W)
Penn State at Minnesota Penn St. by 2.4 Penn St. -9.5 Minnesota (L)
Purdue at Ohio State Ohio St. by 40.8 Ohio St. -24 Ohio State (W)
Rutgers at Pittsburgh Pitt by 18.2 Pitt -13 Pitt (W)
Iowa State at Texas Texas by 27.1 Texas -21 Texas (L)
Duke at Virginia Tech Va Tech by 37.9 Va Tech -26.5 Va Tech (W)
Syracuse at West Virginia WVU by 22.2 WVU -14 WVU (L)
Indiana at Illinois Illinois by 28.8 Illinois -14 Illinois (W)
Temple at Buffalo Temple by 1.0 Temple -7.5 Buffalo (L)
Notre Dame at Navy Notre Dame by 7.5 Notre Dame -7 (!) Notre Dame (L)
11:30am Ole Miss at Arkansas Arkansas by 9.2 Arkansas -9.5 (!) Ole Miss (L)
12:00pm Maryland at Boston College BC by 0.1 BC -4 Maryland (W)
Ohio at Miami (OH) Ohio by 6.5 Ohio -3 Ohio (W)
Florida Atlantic at Arkansas State ASU by 7.9 ASU -7.5 (!) Ark St (W)
1:00pm Wyoming at BYU BYU by 14.5 BYU -10.5 Byu (L)
2:30pm LSU at Auburn Auburn by 9.4 Auburn -6.5 Auburn (W)
Arizona State at California ASU by 3.9 ASU +3.5 ARIZONA ST (L)
Texas Tech at Colorado Colorado by 5.8 Colorado +2.5 COLORADO (L)
Connecticut at Louisville Louisville by 8.5 Louisville +2 LOUISVILLE (W)
Kent State at Bowling Green BGSU by 8.6 BGSU +2 BGSU (L)
Nebraska at Oklahoma State Nebraska by 5.5 Nebraska -6 Okla St (L)
Georgia Tech at Clemson Clemson by 14.8 Clemson -6 Clemson (W)
Kansas State at Baylor Kansas St by 0.8 Kansas St +6 KANSAS ST (W)
Western Michigan at Akron W. Mich by 12.1 W. Mich -7.5 W. Michigan (W)
Rice at Central Florida UCF by 31.8 UCF -22 C. Florida (W)
Wisconsin at Iowa Iowa by 2.7 Iowa -6 Wisconsin (W)
Houston at SMU SMU by 17.0 SMU -7.5 Smu (L)
3:00pm Central Michigan at Northern Illinois NIU by 12.5 NIU -9 N. Illinois (W)
3:15pm Marshall at East Carolina ECU by 18.9 ECU -12.5 E. Carolina (W)
3:30pm UL-Monroe at Middle Tennessee MTSU by 10.4 MTSU -12 UL-Monroe (L)
4:00pm Washington State at Stanford Stanford by 42.6 Stanford -35 Stanford (L)
New Mexico State at Idaho Idaho by 26.9 Idaho -23.5 Idaho (W)
Western Kentucky at UL-Lafayette ULL by 9.8 ULL -6 UL-Lafayette (L)
Hawaii at Utah State Hawaii by 16.7 Hawaii -3 Hawaii (W)
5:00pm Colorado State at Utah Utah by 35.0 Utah -30.5 Utah (W)
Eastern Michigan at Virginia Virginia by 17.3 Virginia -24 E. Michigan (L)
6:00pm South Carolina at Vanderbilt S. Caro. by 29.2 S. Caro -12.5 S. Carolina (W)
UAB at Mississippi State Miss. St. by 22.7 Miss. St. -20 Miss. St. (L)
Texas A&M at Kansas A&M by 29.3 A&M -14 A&M (W)
Alabama at Tennessee 'Bama by 32.1 'Bama -16.5 Alabama (W)
Ball State at Toledo Toledo by 20.7 Toledo -12 Toledo (L)
6:30pm Georgia at Kentucky Kentucky by 4.8 Kentucky +3.5 KENTUCKY (L)
North Carolina at Miami Miami by 9.6 Miami -6.5 Miami (W)
7:00pm Fresno State at San Jose State Fresno by 20.1 Fresno -19.5 (!) Fresno St. (L)
Air Force at TCU TCU by 22.2 TCU -19.5 Tcu (W)
Oklahoma at Missouri Mizzou by 6.5 Mizzou +3 MIZZOU (W)
8:05pm Tulane at UTEP Tulane by 3.9 Tulane +9.5 TULANE (W)
9:00pm San Diego State at New Mexico SDSU by 36.3 SDSU -23.5 Sdsu (L)
9:15pm Washington at Arizona Arizona by 16.5 Arizona -6.5 Arizona (W)

Picks I am Feeling Safest About:

  1. Texas -21 Iowa State.  It's only 21?

  2. Miami -6.5 North Carolina.  No reason why, really.

  3. Utah -30 Colorado State.  Utah's rolling.

  4. WVU -14 Syracuse.  This feels like a 20-pointer to me.

  5. SMU -7.5 Houston.  Houston's reeling, and SMU's fast-paced enough to win by 20 if they get an advantage.

Picks I am Feeling Queasiest About:

  1. Mizzou +3 Oklahoma.  I probably don't need to explain why here.

  2. E. Michigan +24 Virginia.  Not sure they can stay that close to any BCS conference team, even UVa.

  3. Kansas State +6 Baylor.  Baylor can be bowl eligible with a win, so maybe they're in for a letdown ... but the first truly big game in Waco for a while could make for a great(ish) atmosphere.

  4. Stanford -35 Washington State.  Wazzu's defense has been improving, and the pace might not be high enough for 35 points.

  5. Maryland +4 Boston College.  No reason why, really.

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