Oklahoma: Beyond the Box Score

Oklahoma51-Josey

Confused?  Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

To continue with the "Mizzou Beats ____" theme, I guess I should start calling this "Mizzou Beats Oklahoma: The Stats," eh?  But enough with the jibber jabber -- let's get to the stats!  Fascinating game, this one.

Mizzou 36, Oklahoma 27

Mizzou Oklahoma Mizzou Oklahoma
Close % 100.0% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 53.1% 48.0% Success Rate 57.9% 58.2%
Leverage % 70.4% 73.3% PPP 0.39 0.33
S&P 0.967 0.912
TOTAL
EqPts 27.1 21.2 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 50.6% 49.3% Success Rate 33.3% 25.0%
Close PPP 0.33 0.28 PPP 0.21 0.15
Close S&P 0.841 0.777 S&P 0.540 0.405
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 11.4 6.1 Number 2 3
Close Success Rate 51.3% 54.2% Turnover Pts 8.8 18.1
Close PPP 0.29 0.25 Turnover Pts Margin +9.3 -9.3
Close S&P 0.806 0.796
Line Yards/carry 2.40 3.13 Q1 S&P 0.763 0.942
Q2 S&P 0.899 0.848
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.538 0.784
EqPts 15.7 15.1 Q4 S&P 1.089 0.255
Close Success Rate 50.0% 47.1%
Close PPP 0.37 0.30 1st Down S&P 0.809 0.583
Close S&P 0.873 0.767 2nd Down S&P 1.025 1.109
SD/PD Sack Rate 0.0% / 0.0% 0.0% / 5.9% 3rd Down S&P 0.591 0.572
Projected Pt. Margin: Mizzou +15.2 | Actual Pt. Margin: Mizzou +9

A Game of Inches and Decimal Points

Turnovers aside, it is difficult to find too many instances where Mizzou had an extreme advantage in this game.  In the end, they were just a little better across the board.  They were a bit better in the field position battle, a bit better running the ball, a bit better on standard downs, a bit better on passing downs, and a bit better on second and third downs.  In the end, the Tigers ruled four categories:

  • Passing S&P: Mizzou 0.873, Oklahoma 0.767.  This was fueled mostly by a PPP (explosiveness) advantage.
  • Passing Downs S&P: Mizzou 0.540, Oklahoma 0.405.  The Gabbert-to-Jackson connection bailed Mizzou out repeatedly on their scoring drives, but as a whole the Mizzou offense was only decent on passing downs.  The Mizzou defense, however, was incredible.  Oklahoma was able to run the ball relatively well Saturday night, but anytime Mizzou forced a passing down, they took full advantage of it.
  • 1st Down S&P: Mizzou 0.809, Oklahoma 0.583.  Though Oklahoma faced slightly fewer passing downs (Leverage Rate), this suggests that Mizzou's passing downs were much more manageable, and Mizzou's second down successes (both teams were great on that down for some reason) were coming on second-and-6 instead of second-and-9.
  • Turnover Points: Mizzou won the turnover points battle by 9.3 and the game by 9.  Hmm.

Damn, Blaine.

  • Mizzou's Average Passing S&P+, First Five Games: 122.3.
  • Mizzou's Average Passing S&P+, Last Two Games: 144.5.

Or if you prefer basic stats...

  • Blaine Gabbert, First Five Games: 120-for-180 passing (66.7%), 1230 yards (6.83/pass), 7 TD (3.9% TD%), 3 INT (1.7% INT).
  • Blaine Gabbert, Last Two Games: 61-for-89 passing (68.5%), 669 yards (7.52/pass), 4 TD (4.5% TD%), 0 INT

His completion percentage, yards per pass, touchdown percentage and interception percentage (which was already low) have all improved.  He hasn't fled the pocket into the arms of a pass rusher, he hasn't frozen up after his first read is covered, and he has thrown amazingly accurate balls downfield.  And on Saturday, he even checked down to the running backs frequently and successfully.  He has been incredible.

Since the end of the Colorado game, when everybody was questioning his health, wondering if he was the right fit for the offense, and pining for James Franklin (which was obviously rather ridiculous at the time as well), Gabbert has become the quarterback everybody hoped he would become.  Hopefully he still finds the chip-on-the-shoulder he apparently needs this week even though nobody is really doubting him anymore.  Hopefully Nebraska fans send him some hateful e-mails/phone messages/Twitter responses to get him fired up.

Targets and Catches

Player Targets Catches Catch% Target% Rec. Yds. Yds. Per Target
Jerrell Jackson 11 9 81.8% 26.2% 139 12.6
Michael Egnew 9 7 77.8% 21.4% 8 0.9
Wes Kemp 6 4 66.7% 14.3% 71 11.8
T.J. Moe 6 3 50.0% 14.3% 36 6.0
De'Vion Moore 2 2 100.0% 4.8% 3 1.5
Kendial Lawrence 2 1 50.0% 4.8% 22 11.0
Marcus Lucas 1 1 100.0% 2.4% 11 11.0
Brandon Gerau 1 1 100.0% 2.4% 9 9.0
Henry Josey 1 1 100.0% 2.4% 9 9.0
Marcus Murphy 1 1 100.0% 2.4% 0 0.0
N/A 2 0 0.0% 4.8% 0 0.0
TOTAL 42 30 71.4% 100.0% 308 7.3
TOTAL (WR) 27 18 66.7% 64.3% 266 9.9
TOTAL (RB) 6 5 83.3% 14.3% 34 5.7
TOTAL (TE) 9 7 77.8% 21.4% 8 0.9

In 2007, Mizzou's vanilla defense was burned by Illinois, Ole Miss and Illinois State in non-conference play.  Then it unleashed hell on most conference foes, blitzing twice as much and playing much more aggressive.  Either Gary Pinkel, Matt Eberflus and the rest of the defensive staff were holding something in reserve for conference play, or it just took them a while to figure out what they had.

In 2010, the same thing could almost be said about the offense.  San Diego State game aside, Mizzou spent most of its first five games playing things straight, going horizontal for much of its offensive attack, taking few risks downfield, and throwing a vast majority of its passes to two targets, T.J. Moe and Michael Egnew.  In the last two games, however, things have opened up beautifully.  Likely as a product of both game-planning and opponents' defensive efforts, Wes Kemp and Jerrell Jackson have actually been targeted more (38 times) than Egnew and Moe (37) the last two games, and they have come through in a major way.  Mizzou now has four receivers who have had at least 89 receiving yards in a given game and are on pace for at least 50 catches each.  (All four each have three touchdowns as well, for what that's worth.)

  • Receptions Pace (13-game season): Egnew 104, Moe 98, Kemp 50, Jackson 50
  • Receptions Pace (14-game season): Egnew 112, Moe 106, Kemp 54, Jackson 54

I gave both 13- and 14-game options because ... well, nevermind.

This is exactly the passing attack we hoped we would see this year -- two outstanding possession options in Moe and Egnew, two potentially outstanding downfield options in Kemp and Jackson, and a host of other potential receivers (Gerau, Washington, Lucas) stepping up here and there.

Because It's So Pretty

Here are the fourth-quarter stats from Saturday, submitted without comment:

  • Mizzou: 192 total yards (16 rushes, 97 yards; 8-for-9 passing, 95 yards)
  • Oklahoma: 7 total yards (2 rushes, 7 yards; 0-for-7 passing, 0 yards, 1 INT)

Holy Youth

Nevermind the exciting young players who are either coming into the program (Sheldon Richardson, for instance) or haven't quite made the depth chart yet (Jimmie Hunt, for instance).  Here's what happens if we take the current depth chart (PDF) and project it forward for two years.  We're focused on the present right now -- for very, very obvious reasons -- but I couldn't help myself.

2010 2011 2012
OFFENSE (Ret. Starters in bold)
QB Blaine Gabbert (Jr)
James Franklin (Fr)
Blaine Gabbert (Sr*)
James Franklin (So)
James Franklin (Jr)
RB De'Vion Moore (Jr)
Henry Josey (Fr)
Kendial Lawrence (So)
Marcus Murphy (Fr)
De'Vion Moore (Sr)
Henry Josey (So)
Kendial Lawrence (Jr)
Marcus Murphy (So)
Henry Josey (Jr)
Kendial Lawrence (Sr)
Marcus Murphy (Jr)
WR T.J. Moe (So)
Jerrell Jackson (Jr)
Wes Kemp (Jr)
Brandon Gerau (Jr)
Rolandis Woodland (So)
Gahn McGaffie (So)
Marcus Lucas (Fr)
T.J. Moe (Jr)
Jerrell Jackson (Sr)
Wes Kemp (Sr)
Brandon Gerau (Sr)
Rolandis Woodland (Jr)
Gahn McGaffie (Jr)
Marcus Lucas (So)
T.J. Moe (Sr)
Rolandis Woodland (Sr)
Gahn McGaffie (Sr)
Marcus Lucas (Jr)
TE Michael Egnew (Jr)
Andrew Jones (Jr)
Eric Waters (Fr)
Michael Egnew (Sr)
Andrew Jones (Sr)
Eric Waters (So)
Eric Waters (Jr)
OT Dan Hoch (Jr)
Elvis Fisher (Jr)
Jack Meiners (So)
Mark Hill (RSFr)
Dan Hoch (Sr)
Elvis Fisher (Sr)
Jack Meiners (Jr)
Mark Hill (So)
Jack Meiners (Sr)
Mark Hill (Jr)
OG Austin Wuebbels (Jr)
Jayson Palmgren (Jr)
Justin Britt (RSFr)
Kirk Lakebrink (Sr)
Austin Wuebbels (Sr)
Jayson Palmgren (Sr)
Justin Britt (So)
Justin Britt (Jr)
C Tim Barnes (Sr)
Travis Ruth (So)
Travis Ruth (Jr) Travis Ruth (Sr)
DEFENSE
DE Aldon Smith (Jr)
Jacquies Smith (Jr)
Brad Madison (So)
Michael Sam (RSFr)
Marcus Malbrough (So)
Brayden Burnett (RSFr)
Aldon Smith (Sr*)
Jacquies Smith (Sr)
Brad Madison (Jr)
Michael Sam (So)
Marcus Malbrough (Jr)
Brayden Burnett (So)
Brad Madison (Sr)
Michael Sam (Jr)
Marcus Malbrough (Sr)
Brayden Burnett (Jr)
DT Dominique Hamilton (Jr)
Terrell Resonno (Jr)
Jimmy Burge (So)
Brendan Donaldson (Jr)
Marvin Foster (RSFr)
Bart Coslet (Sr)
Dominique Hamilton (Sr)
Terrell Resonno (Sr)
Jimmy Burge (Jr)
Brendan Donaldson (Sr)
Marvin Foster (So)
Jimmy Burge (Sr)
Marvin Foster (Jr)
OLB Zaviar Gooden (So)
Andrew Gachkar (Sr)
Andrew Wilson (RSFr)
Josh Tatum (Jr)
Zaviar Gooden (Jr)
Andrew Wilson (So)
Josh Tatum (Sr)
Donovan Bonner! (So)
Zaviar Gooden (Sr)
Andrew Wilson (Jr)
Donovan Bonner (Jr)
MLB Will Ebner (Jr)
Luke Lambert (Sr)
Jeff Gettys (Sr)
Will Ebner (Sr)
CB Carl Gettis (Sr)
Kevin Rutland (Sr)
Kip Edwards (So)
E.J. Gaines (Fr)
Trey Hobson (Jr)
Robert Steeples (So)
Kip Edwards (Jr)
E.J. Gaines (So)
Trey Hobson (Sr)
Robert Steeples (Jr)
Kip Edwards (Sr)
E.J. Gaines (Jr)
Robert Steeples (Sr)
S Jarrell Harrison (Sr)
Kenji Jackson (Jr)
Jasper Simmons (Sr)
Tavon Bolden (RSFr)
Matt White (RSFr)
Kenji Jackson (Sr)
Tavon Bolden (So)
Matt White (So)
Tavon Bolden (Jr)
Matt White (Jr)
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Grant Ressel (Jr)
Trey Barrow (So)
Grant Ressel (Sr)
Trey Barrow (Jr)
Trey Barrow (Sr)
P Matt Grabner (Sr)
Trey Barrow (So)
Trey Barrow (Jr) Trey Barrow (Sr)
KR Marcus Murphy (Fr)
Wes Kemp (Jr)
Marcus Murphy (So)
Wes Kemp (Sr)
Marcus Murphy (Jr)
PR Carl Gettis (Sr)
Kip Edwards (So)
Marcus Murphy (Fr)
Kip Edwards (Jr)
Marcus Murphy (So)
Kip Edwards (Sr)
Marcus Murphy (Jr)

The (*) is obviously an acknowledgment that Gabbert and/or A. Smith could be gone after this coming April's draft.  But both positions have strong backups already (and in A. Smith's case, Mizzou already got a successful taste of life without him).

I realize I shouldn't be pointing this out right now, but Mizzou is only beginning to rack up the experience.  Nothing's saying 2011 or 2012 will be as good as 2010 has been thus far, but in terms of potential?  Yikes.

Summary

What more is there to say at this point?  Mizzou proved themselves in front of a national audience, Blaine Gabbert has grown by leaps and bounds, the defense lost another cog (Hamilton) but kept right on plugging ahead, and Mizzou is 7-0 for just the second time since the turn of the last century.

And now they've got an even bigger game coming up this Saturday at 2:30.

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