Week 9 BTBS Picks

Look at me!  Technically getting this post out before Saturday!

Last Week's Results


Week 7 Season
Type/Range
W-L
Win%
W-L
Win%
ALL GAMES
28-23 .549 189-200-6 .486
Big 12 Games
3-3 .500 28-33 .459
Upset Picks
4-4 .500 15-23-1 .397
"LOCKS"
1-0 1.000 5-6 .455
"Feeling Safe"
2-3 .400 20-20 .500
"Feeling Queasy"
4-1 .800 22-16-1 .577
0-5 point spread
5-4 .556 54-50-1 .519
5-10 points
11-8 .579 50-57-2 .468
10-20 points 7-6 .538 38-63-1 .377
20-30 points
4-4 .500 33-23 .589
30+ points
1-1 .500 10-12 .455

At some point soon, I'm going to put up a graph of my week-to-week win percentages for this season.  I was a complete and total disaster as the preseason projections were being phased out and the real data phased in, but this is 3-4 straight high-quality weeks.  Hopefully it continues, and I'm actually able to get back to .500 at some point.

This week's picks after the jump.

Your notes:

  • "LOCKS" signify games where the spread and projection are more than 17 points apart.  At this point, LOCKS are rare, as Vegas seems to have hacked into my damn computer.
  • If there is a "(!)" next to the spread, that means the projection and spread are within 2 points of each other ... and you should probably lay off of these picks if you are the betting type.  There are far too many of these this week.
  • Verdicts in all caps signify games where the underdog is picked to win straight up.
Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
10/26 7:00pm Louisiana Tech at Boise State Boise by 37.4 Boise -38 Louisiana Tech (W)
10/28 6:30pm Florida State at N.C. State N.C. St. by 5.0 N.C. St. -4 NC STATE (T)
10/29 7:00pm West Virginia at Connecticut WVU by 14.3 WVU -6.5 Wvu (L)
10/30 11:00am Northwestern at Indiana NW'ern by 2.9 NW'ern -3 (!) Indiana (T)
Clemson at Boston College Clemson by 13.4 Clemson -7 Clemson (L)
Louisville at Pittsburgh Pitt by 16.6 Pitt -9 Pittsburgh (W)
Miami at Virginia Miami by 27.5 Miami -15 Miami (L)
Purdue at Illinois Illinois by 27.7 Illinois -17 Illinois (L)
Syracuse at Cincinnati Cincy by 7.7 Cincy -5.5 Cincy (L)
Oklahoma State at Kansas State OSU by 9.6 OSU -5.5 Okla St (W)
UAB at Southern Miss So Miss by 4.6 So Miss -10 Uab (W)
N. Illinois at W. Michigan NIU by 8.2 NIU -8.5 (!) W. Mich (W)
11:21am Tennessee at S. Carolina S. Caro by 39.0! S. Caro -17.5 S. Caro (LOCK) (L)
12:00pm Akron at Temple Temple by 28.4 Temple -29 (!) Akron (L)
1:00pm Kansas at Iowa State Iowa St by 23.6 Iowa St -19 Iowa State (L)
UL-Lafayette at Ohio Ohio by 12.9 Ohio -14.5 (!) UL-Lafayette (W)
San Diego St. at Wyoming SDSU by 17.5 SDSU -10 Sdsu (T)
1:30pm Tulsa at Notre Dame Irish by 15.9 Irish by 8.5 Notre Dame (L)
2:00pm North Texas at W. Kentucky WKU by 4.1 WKU -5.5 (!) N. Texas (W)
UTEP at Marshall Marshall by 10.7 Marshall -2.5 Marshall (W)
2:30pm Arizona at UCLA Arizona by 17.3 Arizona -9 Arizona (L)
Florida vs Georgia Georgia by 6.3 Georgia -3 Georgia (L)
Missouri at Nebraska Nebraska by 0.5 Nebraska -7.5 Mizzou (L)
Wake Forest at Maryland Maryland by 17.5 Maryland -5.5 Maryland (W)
California at Oregon State Ore St by 11.0 Ore St -2.5 Oregon St (W)
Texas Tech at Texas A&M A&M by 8.8 A&M -7 (!) A&M (W)
Miami-OH at Buffalo Buffalo by 5.5 Buffalo +2.5 BUFFALO (L)
E. Carolina at C. Florida C. Florida by 6.2 C. Florida -7.5 (!) E. Carolina (L)
Bowling Green at C. Michigan CMU by 9.5 CMU -11.5 Bowling Green (W)
Michigan State at Iowa Iowa by 3.7 Iowa -6.5 Mich State (L)
Ball State at Kent State Kent St by 10.5 Kent St -10 (!) Kent State (W)
Duke at Navy Navy by 21.7 Navy -14 Navy (L)
Troy at UL-Monroe Troy by 19.3 Troy -16.5 Troy (L)
SMU at Tulane SMU by 11.8 SMU -7.5 Smu (W)
3:00pm San Jose St at New Mexico St SJSU by 9.0 SJSU -3.5 Sjsu (L)
Toledo at E. Michigan Toledo by 3.1 Toledo -10.5 E. Michigan (L)
Florida Int'l at Florida Atlantic FIU by 7.5 FIU -4.5 Fla Int'l (L)
5:00pm New Mexico at Colorado State CSU by 12.0 CSU -16 New Mexico (L)
Auburn at Ole Miss Auburn by 22.3 Auburn -7 Auburn (W)
6:00pm Vanderbilt at Arkansas Arkansas by 24.0 Arkansas -20.5 Arkansas (W)
Washington St at Arizona St ASU by 22.7 ASU -21 (!) Arizona St (W)
Houston at Memphis Houston by 14.9 Houston -13.5 (!) Houston (W)
Baylor at Texas Texas by 4.9 Texas -7 Baylor (W)
Stanford at Washington Stanford by 11.0 Stanford -7.5 Stanford (W)
Kentucky at Mississippi State Miss St by 3.0 Miss St -6.5 Kentucky (L)
6:30pm Utah at Air Force Utah by 7.9 Utah -7 (!) Utah (L)
7:00pm Oregon at USC USC by 4.7 USC +7 USC (L)
Ohio State at Minnesota Ohio St by 34.0 Ohio St -25.5 Ohio State (W)
Michigan at Penn State Michigan by 9.1 Michigan -2.5 Michigan (L)
8:15pm Colorado at Oklahoma OU by 20.8 OU -24 Colorado (L)
9:30pm Utah State at Nevada Nevada by 23.9 Nevada -26 Utah State (W)
10:00pm TCU at UNLV TCU by 45.7 TCU -35 Tcu (W)
11:30pm Idaho at Hawaii Hawaii by 26.1 Hawaii -14 Hawaii (W)

Picks I am Feeling Safest About:

  1. South Carolina -17.5 Tennessee.  Tennessee gets a little worse each week, and my numbers love South Carolina.

  2. Miami -15 Virginia.  Would have figured this would have been about a 22-23 point line, even in Charlottesville.

  3. Hawaii -14 Idaho.  I have no idea why, but Idaho has been getting more love than it deserves from the Vegas lines all year.  This should also be 22-23 points.

    And yes, I realize I've now picked three games in the deadly "10-20 point line" range.  It's like I'm going out of my way to make the "safe" picks suck.

  4. Maryland -5.5 Wake Forest.  Really?  5.5 points?  At home?  Maryland's not great, but ... really?

  5. Ohio State -25.5 Minnesota.  Ohio State has just been money on these big lines, and against teams with coaches, much less one without one...

Picks I am Feeling Queasiest About:

  1. Mizzou +7.5 Nebraska.  Why mess with tradition?

  2. Indiana +3 Northwestern.  I don't love Northwestern, but ... well ... I don't love Indiana, to say the least.

  3. Colorado +24 Oklahoma.  Oklahoma's pissed off, and I smell 52-10.

  4. Baylor +7 Texas.  I really hope I'm wrong (come on, Hot Tub Griffin III!!!), but I think Pissed Off And Good Texas shows up in this one.

  5. Illinois -17 Purdue.  I like Illinois quite a bit this year, but 17's just too high.  Purdue's schizo, though, so anything between a Purdue win and Illinois by 25 won't be too surprising.
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Rock M Nation

You must be a member of Rock M Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Rock M Nation. You should read them.

Join Rock M Nation

You must be a member of Rock M Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Rock M Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker