Look at me! Technically getting this post out before Saturday!
Last Week's Results
|Big 12 Games
|0-5 point spread
At some point soon, I'm going to put up a graph of my week-to-week win percentages for this season. I was a complete and total disaster as the preseason projections were being phased out and the real data phased in, but this is 3-4 straight high-quality weeks. Hopefully it continues, and I'm actually able to get back to .500 at some point.
This week's picks after the jump.
- "LOCKS" signify games where the spread and projection are more than 17 points apart. At this point, LOCKS are rare, as Vegas seems to have hacked into my damn computer.
- If there is a "(!)" next to the spread, that means the projection and spread are within 2 points of each other ... and you should probably lay off of these picks if you are the betting type. There are far too many of these this week.
- Verdicts in all caps signify games where the underdog is picked to win straight up.
|10/26||7:00pm||Louisiana Tech at Boise State||Boise by 37.4||Boise -38||Louisiana Tech (W)
|10/28||6:30pm||Florida State at N.C. State||N.C. St. by 5.0||N.C. St. -4||NC STATE (T)|
|10/29||7:00pm||West Virginia at Connecticut||WVU by 14.3||WVU -6.5||Wvu (L)
|10/30||11:00am||Northwestern at Indiana||NW'ern by 2.9||NW'ern -3 (!)||Indiana (T)
|Clemson at Boston College||Clemson by 13.4||Clemson -7||Clemson (L)
|Louisville at Pittsburgh||Pitt by 16.6||Pitt -9||Pittsburgh (W)
|Miami at Virginia||Miami by 27.5||Miami -15||Miami (L)
|Purdue at Illinois||Illinois by 27.7||Illinois -17||Illinois (L)|
|Syracuse at Cincinnati||Cincy by 7.7||Cincy -5.5||Cincy (L)|
|Oklahoma State at Kansas State||OSU by 9.6||OSU -5.5||Okla St (W)
|UAB at Southern Miss||So Miss by 4.6||So Miss -10||Uab (W)|
|N. Illinois at W. Michigan||NIU by 8.2||NIU -8.5 (!)||W. Mich (W)|
|11:21am||Tennessee at S. Carolina||S. Caro by 39.0!||S. Caro -17.5||S. Caro (LOCK) (L)|
|12:00pm||Akron at Temple||Temple by 28.4||Temple -29 (!)||Akron (L)|
|1:00pm||Kansas at Iowa State||Iowa St by 23.6||Iowa St -19||Iowa State (L)|
|UL-Lafayette at Ohio||Ohio by 12.9||Ohio -14.5 (!)||UL-Lafayette (W)|
|San Diego St. at Wyoming||SDSU by 17.5||SDSU -10||Sdsu (T)
|1:30pm||Tulsa at Notre Dame||Irish by 15.9||Irish by 8.5||Notre Dame (L)|
|2:00pm||North Texas at W. Kentucky||WKU by 4.1||WKU -5.5 (!)||N. Texas (W)|
|UTEP at Marshall||Marshall by 10.7||Marshall -2.5||Marshall (W)|
|2:30pm||Arizona at UCLA||Arizona by 17.3||Arizona -9||Arizona (L)|
|Florida vs Georgia||Georgia by 6.3||Georgia -3||Georgia (L)|
|Missouri at Nebraska||Nebraska by 0.5||Nebraska -7.5||Mizzou (L)|
|Wake Forest at Maryland||Maryland by 17.5||Maryland -5.5||Maryland (W)|
|California at Oregon State||Ore St by 11.0||Ore St -2.5||Oregon St (W)|
|Texas Tech at Texas A&M||A&M by 8.8||A&M -7 (!)||A&M (W)|
|Miami-OH at Buffalo||Buffalo by 5.5||Buffalo +2.5||BUFFALO (L)|
|E. Carolina at C. Florida||C. Florida by 6.2||C. Florida -7.5 (!)||E. Carolina (L)|
|Bowling Green at C. Michigan||CMU by 9.5||CMU -11.5||Bowling Green (W)|
|Michigan State at Iowa||Iowa by 3.7||Iowa -6.5||Mich State (L)|
|Ball State at Kent State||Kent St by 10.5||Kent St -10 (!)||Kent State (W)|
|Duke at Navy||Navy by 21.7||Navy -14||Navy (L)|
|Troy at UL-Monroe||Troy by 19.3||Troy -16.5||Troy (L)|
|SMU at Tulane||SMU by 11.8||SMU -7.5||Smu (W)|
|3:00pm||San Jose St at New Mexico St||SJSU by 9.0||SJSU -3.5||Sjsu (L)|
|Toledo at E. Michigan||Toledo by 3.1||Toledo -10.5||E. Michigan (L)|
|Florida Int'l at Florida Atlantic||FIU by 7.5||FIU -4.5||Fla Int'l (L)|
|5:00pm||New Mexico at Colorado State||CSU by 12.0||CSU -16||New Mexico (L)|
|Auburn at Ole Miss||Auburn by 22.3||Auburn -7||Auburn (W)|
|6:00pm||Vanderbilt at Arkansas||Arkansas by 24.0||Arkansas -20.5||Arkansas (W)|
|Washington St at Arizona St||ASU by 22.7||ASU -21 (!)||Arizona St (W)|
|Houston at Memphis||Houston by 14.9||Houston -13.5 (!)||Houston (W)|
|Baylor at Texas||Texas by 4.9||Texas -7||Baylor (W)|
|Stanford at Washington||Stanford by 11.0||Stanford -7.5||Stanford (W)|
|Kentucky at Mississippi State||Miss St by 3.0||Miss St -6.5||Kentucky (L)|
|6:30pm||Utah at Air Force||Utah by 7.9||Utah -7 (!)||Utah (L)|
|7:00pm||Oregon at USC||USC by 4.7||USC +7||USC (L)|
|Ohio State at Minnesota||Ohio St by 34.0||Ohio St -25.5||Ohio State (W)|
|Michigan at Penn State||Michigan by 9.1||Michigan -2.5||Michigan (L)|
|8:15pm||Colorado at Oklahoma||OU by 20.8||OU -24||Colorado (L)|
|9:30pm||Utah State at Nevada||Nevada by 23.9||Nevada -26||Utah State (W)|
|10:00pm||TCU at UNLV||TCU by 45.7||TCU -35||Tcu (W)|
|11:30pm||Idaho at Hawaii||Hawaii by 26.1||Hawaii -14||Hawaii (W)|
Picks I am Feeling Safest About:
South Carolina -17.5 Tennessee. Tennessee gets a little worse each week, and my numbers love South Carolina.
Miami -15 Virginia. Would have figured this would have been about a 22-23 point line, even in Charlottesville.
Hawaii -14 Idaho. I have no idea why, but Idaho has been getting more love than it deserves from the Vegas lines all year. This should also be 22-23 points.
And yes, I realize I've now picked three games in the deadly "10-20 point line" range. It's like I'm going out of my way to make the "safe" picks suck.
Maryland -5.5 Wake Forest. Really? 5.5 points? At home? Maryland's not great, but ... really?
Ohio State -25.5 Minnesota. Ohio State has just been money on these big lines, and against teams with coaches, much less one without one...
Picks I am Feeling Queasiest About:
Mizzou +7.5 Nebraska. Why mess with tradition?
Indiana +3 Northwestern. I don't love Northwestern, but ... well ... I don't love Indiana, to say the least.
Colorado +24 Oklahoma. Oklahoma's pissed off, and I smell 52-10.
Baylor +7 Texas. I really hope I'm wrong (come on, Hot Tub Griffin III!!!), but I think Pissed Off And Good Texas shows up in this one.
Illinois -17 Purdue. I like Illinois quite a bit this year, but 17's just too high. Purdue's schizo, though, so anything between a Purdue win and Illinois by 25 won't be too surprising.