Know Your (Temporary) Rival: Western Illinois
by Bill C. on Nov 17, 2010 9:01 AM CST
in Mizzou Basketball 10-11
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PrintThe real basketball games start tomorrow!!! That can only mean one thing: Know Your Rival is back! As part of the Cancun Challenge, Mizzou plays Western Illinois at 7pm on Thursday and North Florida at 3pm on Saturday, then heads to Cancun to play Wyoming on Tuesday and either Providence or La Salle on Wednesday. Let's kick things off with some WIU goodness...
Also, more importantly: LEAVE YOUR TRIFECTA* PICKS IN THE COMMENTS SECTION!! That's right ... the world's least-winnable game is back!
* For newer readers, the Trifecta is your attempt to guess which Mizzou players will finish 1-2-3 in AdjGS points in this game. We attempted this for about half or two-thirds of last season, and one person won. Um, good luck.
Western Illinois Leathernecks: 2-0
| WIU |
Opp. | |
| Pace (No. of Possessions) |
58.8 | |
| Points Per Minute |
1.78 | 1.24 |
| Points Per Possession (PPP) |
1.21 | 0.84 |
| Points Per Shot (PPS) |
1.71 | 1.15 |
| 2-PT FG% | 59.0% | 41.9% |
| 3-PT FG% | 45.5% | 20.8% |
| FT% | 80.0% | 65.3% |
| True Shooting % | 67.6% | 46.0% |
| WIU | Opp. | |
| Assists/Gm | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| Steals/Gm | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Turnovers/Gm | 15.0 | 18.0 |
| Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO |
1.17 | 0.78 |
| WIU | Opp. | |
| Expected Offensive Reb./Gm | 7.5 | 11.0 |
| Offensive Rebounds/Gm | 7.5 | 13.0 |
| Difference | +0.0 | +2.0 |
If the above stats were against real teams, this would be a pretty scary team -- good shooting, good 3-point defense, high number of turnovers forced. Of course, their 2-0 start has come against Savannah State (one of the, um, lesser Division 1 teams) and the St. Francis Saints of Joliet, IL, and the NAIA. They beat Savannah State, 59-52, then laid the wood to the Saints, 83-47. They play sllllllloooowwwww.
Ken Pomeroy Stats (2009-10)
| WIU Offense vs MU Defense Ranks |
|||
| WIU Offense | MU Defense | Advantage | |
| Efficiency | 313 |
13 |
Mizzou Big |
| Effective FG% | 295 |
50 |
Mizzou Big |
| Turnover % | 195 |
3 |
Mizzou Big |
| Off. Reb. % | 329 |
329 |
None |
| FTA/FGA | 113 |
206 |
WIU |
| MU Offense vs WIU Defense Ranks |
|||
| MU Offense | WIU Defense | Advantage | |
| Efficiency | 43 |
170 |
Mizzou Big |
| Effective FG% | 102 |
39 |
WIU |
| Turnover % | 43 |
248 |
Mizzou Big |
| Off. Reb. % | 126 |
163 |
Mizzou |
| FTA/FGA | 269 |
304 |
Mizzou |
Where the Leathernecks are weakest
Well, they committed 30 turnovers in games against Savannah State and St. Francis (IL). That's what we in the business call ... a red flag. Plus, they allowed a higher-than-expected number of offensive rebounds in these games. Last season, one of their best KenPom rankings came in the Defensive Rebounding category; they might be alright there for the long haul, but if you're giving up offensive rebounds, you are failing to take advantage of one of Missouri's bigger weaknesses.
Where they are best
Granted, they have been playing against air, but they have shot very, very well in two games this season. They also played very good FG% defense last season. They milk the hell out of the clock, and they force opponents to get a little impatient. If, somehow, Mizzou is not forcing turnovers and getting into transition, this game will turn into a slog. Mizzou will still almost certainly win no matter what the pace, but it won't be a tremendously pretty win.
WIU's Season to Date
- Wins (Team Rank is from KenPom.com)
#316 Savannah State (59-52)
NR St. Francis (IL) (83-47) - Losses
None!
Undefeated, baby!
WIU Player Stats
| Player | AdjGS*/Gm | GmSc/Min | Line |
| Ceola Clark III (6'3, 190, Jr.) |
19.3 |
0.56 |
34.5 MPG, 16.5 PPG (50% 3PT), 5.0 APG, 2 SPG, 2.5 TOPG |
| Matt Lander (6'4, 185, Sr.) |
16.6 |
0.51 |
32.5 MPG, 18.5 PPG (69.5% TS%), 3.0 APG, 1.5 RPG, 3.0 TOPG |
| Jelani Johnson (6'4, 190, So.) |
6.1 |
0.29 |
21.0 MPG, 7.0 PPG (71.4% FG), 1.5 APG, 2.5 TOPG |
| David Gebru (6'10, 235, So.) |
6.0 |
0.37 |
16.0 MPG, 8.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 2.0 TOPG |
| Kalmarr Price (6'8, 235, Jr.) |
5.2 |
0.27 |
19.5 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.0 BPG |
| Emeka Okafor, Jr. (6'7, 210, Jr.) |
3.9 |
0.41 |
9.5 MPG, 1.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.5 APG |
| Jack Houpt (6'7, 210, So.) |
3.7 |
0.14 |
26.5 MPG, 4.5 PPG (37.5% FG), 3.0 RPG |
| Brandon Smith (6'0, 185, Sr.) |
3.3 |
0.39 |
8.5 MPG, 4.5 PPG, 1.5 TOPG |
| Tommie Tyler (6'3, 190, Jr.) |
2.6 |
0.11 |
24.5 MPG, 6.0 PPG (44.4% FG), 1.5 TOPG |
* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.
- Most Touches Per Possession: Clark (4.4), Okafor (4.2, in limited minutes)
- Highest Usage%: Lander (30%), Gebru (29%), Smith (27%)
- Highest Floor%: Clark (50%), Lander (50%), Johnson (45%)
- %Pass: Okafor (76%), Clark (66%), Johnson (56%)
- %Shoot: Gebru (50%), Tyler (42%), Smith (32%)
- %Fouled: Smith (36%), Gebru (28%), Price (27%)
- %TO: Smith (32%), Gebru (22%), Johnson (16%)
First things first: Emeka Okafor, Jr., is not the 'junior' of that Emeka Okafor ... but he is that Emeka's third cousin. (Since I had to look at his WIU bio for that tidbit, I can also tell you that he loves Jay-Z, One Republic, and Kobe Bryant, and he hopes to one day become either a dermatologist or an orthopedic surgeon. The More You Know...)
Basically this team has two good players -- Clark and Lander -- and they both play in the backcourt. Clark is a solid distributor (his %Pass suggests he's the point guard) and shooter. Tommie Tyler probably steals a few too many shots from these two players. They appear to play 3-4 guards a decent amount of the time, and they have not yet settled on a big man rotation. On a per-minute basis, Okafor has been their most effective big(ish) man, but he does not have the pure size of Gebru or Price. Houpt is a junior college transfer who is playing major minutes but not really doing a lot.
Keys to the Game
- Show Up. I always hate listing this as a key -- it sounds arrogant -- but under Mike Anderson, Mizzou doesn't lose these games (losing at Oral Roberts last season was the closest thing, and WIU is no ORU), and the only way they will is if they fall asleep at the wheel.
- Challenge Shots. Granted, it was an exhibition, and the backups got major time, but Arkansas-Ft. Smith got a few too many open shots last Friday night considering the level of the opponent. I'm pretty sure UAFS was actually more athletic than WIU (it's the main thing they had going for them), but Mizzou wasn't amazingly sharp in their rotations just yet, and the other way the Leathernecks could stick around is with hot shooting.
- Get Them Moving. WIU does not want to run. They were 338th in Tempo last season (62.6 possessions/game), and even including the blowout win over St. Francis (IL), they're averaging just 58.5 possessions/game. This is one of those "Whose Personality Wins?" games, and while I assume that with better talent and a home crowd, Mizzou will impose their will, it's not a guarantee. They still have to go and do it.
Prediction
We just do not play enough teams named the Leathernecks, do we? We'll say that Western Illinois successfully junks this game up for 10-12 minutes or so, and the score is something like 14-12 Mizzou before the inevitable run kicks in and Mizzou wins, 84-56.
83 comments
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1 recs |
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Comments
I do love the hopeless futility of the trifecta
Gimme Bowers, Dixon, Denmon.
"I'm a genius, but I'm a misunderstood genius."
"What's misunderstood about you?"
"Nobody thinks I'm a genius."
by Transmogrified Tiger on Nov 17, 2010 9:06 AM CST reply actions
YES! my favorite part of basketball season is back!
these pieces really are fabulous, bill.
bowers
english
ratliffe
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Nov 17, 2010 9:13 AM CST reply actions
Trifecta
Denmon, Bowers, English
And while I know football is more your passion, I really do think these are your best pieces you put out during the year.
Advocating for the "Spreadbone" since 2010
Rock M Nation
Name the players / trifecta
Trifecta: Party Starter / Kimmeh/ Philmajesty
if I pick the trifecta, Philmajesty should stay for Phil Pressey.
Wow, everyone really loves the Party Starter for the Trifecta...
I’ll go with P. Pressey, Bowers…then English, I suppose
Follow me on twitter.com/SteveCusumano
Trifecta
Predator, Laffy, and Ricky Ricardo (the Sleepy…er, sleeper awakens).
Also, a 6’7" bone cutter? Only if his scrub nurse is 5’2".
Finds MvP RoC to be a stellar individual
I'm definitely feeling Moneypox
The trifecta winner (as if…) should get to either a) nickname a previously unnicknamed player, or b) re-name the site in his/her honor until the next game.
Bowers, Dixon, Ratliffe
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Lots of TOs means a good night for the guards
Dixon
Bowers
Phil
by JSco on Nov 17, 2010 10:00 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Self-Replying, I know...
But my brain absolutely had a trifecta-shaped hole in it, and until seeing the disclaimer on this post, I wasn’t even THINKING about it. Oh the futility and ineptness… How I welcome thee back into my life. Thank you, trifecta, for making my Wednesday morning shining and bright anew.
Bet me!
by TigerBartender on Nov 17, 2010 10:06 AM CST up reply actions
What? Emeka Okafor Jr?!
How the hell does Emeka Okafor have a son old enough to play college ball?
/yesIknowthisisnothisactualson
He's not even Dominican...
Bet me!
by TigerBartender on Nov 17, 2010 10:12 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Then his Dad's got some 'splaining to do.
#JooKnowWhatImSayin’
Bet me!
by TigerBartender on Nov 17, 2010 10:19 AM CST up reply actions
Considering the fact that I am spending the semester in the Dominican,
I am reccing this with authority.
by searchyourfeelingsyouknowittobetrue on Nov 17, 2010 6:51 PM CST up reply actions
P.Pressey, English, Bowers
Guards dominate, but Bowers cannot be denied a trifecta appearance.
"I have CDO. It's like OCD, but the letters are in alphabetical order. Like they should be."
O I've missed you guys, the team and Internet friends...
TRI:
Bowers,
Denmon,
Ratliffe
And that Bedtime with Coach piece….amazing.
Trifecta
Party Starter, The Amazing Kreklow* and Cardo.
*Condors are from the vulture family and I am not a fan of birds that eat the remains of dead animals or leathernecks.
"Anderson won't make substitutions. He'll change lines - Tiller, Taylor and English hit the bench while Denmon, Dixon and Paul hop the boards. Welcome to Hockey Night in Columbia. He won't take time outs. He'll take on fuel and tires. Welcome to the Hardwood 400." - Atch
Trifecta
Bowers
Denmon
P. Pressey
"Blaine Gabbert sucks at life, bring in little gabbert, he will do better."
-Girl behind me at a game
trifecta
bowers, d money, lil pressey
Great moments are born from great opportunity.
Follow me on Twitter @muwxman
I have no strategy for the trifecta
and if anybody says they do then they’re either lying or stupid. There is no sense to this game.
Dixon
Bowers
English
Well, there is a "strategy", per se
If you look at how the AdjGS is calculated, you can try to figure out who is likely to get the highest score. That certainly works better than picking at random.
But, anyone who thinks they can predict what’s going to happen that clearly is “either lying or stupid”.
I am going to disagree with you just a little bit
You can look at how the AdjGS is calculated, but in Mike Anderson’s system, it ends up being a total random guess…
Anyone know how many combinations we have this this year?
Great moments are born from great opportunity.
Follow me on Twitter @muwxman
With this squad being deeper than ever
I would guess any one of 10 guys is capable of having a big night and/or coming up in the trifecta. Anybody who wins this year will win by chance for sure.
m. pressey, ratliffe, safford
"Football players, like prostitutes, are in the business of ruining their bodies for the pleasure of strangers" -Merle Kessler
Ratliffe, Moore, Bowers
Trying to go with something no one else has, coupled with the idea this could be a slow game. Though I know nothing about basketball, so my reasoning is full of [redacted].
Dr. Ausgiano schools me in the classroom and on the field of battle
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Nov 17, 2010 12:42 PM CST reply actions
ARE YOU READY?
P.Pressey
R, Kreklow
M. Pressey
Whoever said, 'It's not whether you win or lose that counts,' probably lost.
Martina Navratilova
by tigers and chiefs fan on Nov 17, 2010 12:46 PM CST reply actions
hmmm....the pressey is strong with this entry.
Dr. Ausgiano schools me in the classroom and on the field of battle
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Nov 17, 2010 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
I have a system & I will win this season
Whoever said, 'It's not whether you win or lose that counts,' probably lost.
Martina Navratilova
by tigers and chiefs fan on Nov 17, 2010 8:35 PM CST up reply actions
Bowers, Dixon, Safford
With P. Pressey for the superfecta
I'm sure this is a repeat
But give me
Bowers
P. Pressey
English
Try not to take me too seriously
mr coffee, jesus tyrannosaurus, ramberlamps... hey wait a minute!
time to move on i guess, though i will miss those guys
party starter
dixon
ratliff
I'm so happy we're doing the trifecta again.
Laurence “Justin” Bowers
Kim “He Slept in the Gym” English
Michael “No Longer Predator” Dixon, Jr.
Just saw it, so give me:
Bowers
Phil Pressey
Dixon
by TheHamburglar on Nov 17, 2010 3:43 PM CST up reply actions
TRIFECTA IS BACK!
Bowers
P. Pressey
Denmon
You don't have to come and confess, we lookin' for you, we gon' find you, we gon' find you. So you can run and tell that, Homeboy.
P. Pressey, Safford, Krecklow
There is a God and I'm not it, after that EVERYTHING is subjective. Be careful for what you wish for, you just might GET IT!
newbies dominate
ratliffe
pressey phil
pressey matt
Bowers, P. Pressey and Dixon
It's Time.
by Jason Brynsvold on Nov 17, 2010 5:52 PM CST reply actions
Guaranteed to miss
Ratliffe
English
Dixon
"Alcohol may be man's worst enemy, but the bible says love your enemy." --Frank Sinatra
by Other Side of the Pillow on Nov 17, 2010 6:09 PM CST reply actions
False.
Laurence “Team Coco” Bowers
Kim “The university pays for my apartment, but I don’t actually sleep in it” English
M “I’m not Chris Paul’s cousin” P3
by searchyourfeelingsyouknowittobetrue on Nov 17, 2010 7:05 PM CST reply actions
trifecta
Bowers, Demon, Lil’ Press
What do Tigers dream of when they take a little Tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling Jayhawks, Or Todd Reesing in his sod helmet suit? Don’t you get in a self-loathing funk, We’re gonna start this party with a Lawrence Bowers dunk, And then we’re gonna find Kimmeh’s shot too, And bring a victory back to the Zou! Zou, Zou, oh back to the Zou! But if we keep shooting the three like we have been… Then we’re shit outta luck
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