Know Your Temporary Rival: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
by Bill C. on Nov 27, 2010 11:00 PM CST
in Mizzou Basketball 10-11
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Hey, guess what: Mizzou has a basketball game tomorrow! I know, news to me too! Here's your hastily thrown together preview of the sure-to-be-epic battle between Mizzou and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 0-5
| UAPB |
Opp. | |
| Pace (No. of Possessions) |
69.7 |
|
| Points Per Minute |
1.24 |
1.99 |
| Points Per Possession (PPP) |
0.71 |
1.14 |
| Points Per Shot (PPS) |
0.98 |
1.54 |
| 2-PT FG% | 34.2% |
58.8% |
| 3-PT FG% | 31.3% |
36.9% |
| FT% | 56.3% |
70.1% |
| True Shooting % | 42.4% |
61.7% |
| UAPB | Opp. | |
| Assists/Gm | 8.4 |
14.8 |
| Steals/Gm | 8.4 |
7.2 |
| Turnovers/Gm | 17.2 |
15.0 |
| Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO |
0.98 |
1.47 |
| UAPB | Opp. | |
| Expected Off. Rebounds/Gm | 13.2 |
10.6 |
| Offensive Rebounds/Gm | 6.2 |
8.6 |
| Difference | -7.0 |
-2.0 |
Remember last year, when I tried to sell you on the fact that winless UA-Pine Bluff was a pretty damn good basketball team? Not this year. They can do some interesting things on defense -- they are 58th in Steals% and block out reasonably well (160th in Def. Reb%) -- but they have possibly the worst offense Mizzou will see this year. Scoring 0.71 points per possession is absolutely terrible (which is what happens when you can neither shoot nor grab offensive rebounds), especially considering the best team they have played this season is Northwestern. The Golden Lions had to replace quite a few cogs from last season's SWAC tournament champions, and ... yeah, they're still breaking them in.
Ken Pomeroy Stats
| UAPB Offense vs MU Defense Ranks |
|||
| UAPB Offense | MU Defense | Advantage | |
| Efficiency | 344 |
29 |
MU big |
| Effective FG% | 328 |
166 |
MU big |
| Turnover % | 274 |
6 |
MU big |
| Off. Reb. % | 345 |
49 |
MU big |
| FTA/FGA | 239 |
180 |
MU |
| MU Offense vs Opp. Defense Ranks |
|||
| MU Offense | UAPB Defense | Advantage | |
| Efficiency | 32 |
294 |
MU big |
| Effective FG% | 176 |
335 |
MU big |
| Turnover % | 55 |
153 |
MU |
| Off. Reb. % | 46 |
170 |
MU big |
| FTA/FGA | 298 |
323 |
MU |
Where the Golden Lions are weakest
I'm not sure how to narrow it down. Let's just say that they can't shoot, can't crash the offensive glass, and allow incredible amounts of easy shots. And they foul too much. And never get to the line. And turn the ball over too much.
Where they are best
As I hinted above, they take chances on defense and grab quite a few steals because of it. Plus, you're reasonably likely to be one-and-done if you miss the easy shot they give you in a given possession.
UAPB's Season to Date
- Wins (Team Rank is from KenPom.com)
none - Losses
at No. 66 Northwestern, 45-71
at No. 69 Stanford, 49-92
at No. 73 Nebraska, 40-83
at No. 90 Colorado State, 52-81
at No. 276 Hawaii, 63-70
UAPB has played four teams ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 100, and the average score was Opponent 82, UAPB 47. They almost knocked off Hawaii ... but Hawaii is awful. Ken Pomeroy officially gives them a 0.2% chance of beating Missouri.
UAPB Player Stats
| Player | AdjGS*/Gm | GmSc/Min | Line |
| Savalance Townsend (6'2, 160, Jr.) | 15.0 | 0.45 | 33.5 MPG, 12.3 PPG (37.9% 3PT), 1.8 APG, 1.5 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 3.0 TOPG |
| Daniel Broughton (6'8, 220, Fr.) | 13.6 | 0.63 | 21.5 MPG, 10.8 PPG (54.5% FG), 5.3 RPG, 3.3 TOPG |
| Gavin Montgomery (6'6, 200, Jr.) | 13.4 | 0.45 | 30.0 MPG, 9.6 PPG (40.8% FG), 3.8 RPG, 3.2 SPG |
| Dominic Moore (6'10, 205, Sr.) | 8.5 | 0.27 | 31.6 MPG, 5.6 PPG (39.1% FG), 3.6 RPG, 2.0 TOPG |
| Allen Smith (5'10, 170, Sr.) | 8.2 | 0.22 | 37.0 MPG, 10.2 PPG (30.4% FG), 2.4 APG, 1.8 RPG, 2.4 TOPG |
| Terrell Kennedy (6'6, 250, Jr.) | 0.7 | 0.03 | 21.0 MPG, 5.5 PPG (26.7% FG), 5.0 RPG, 2.5 TOPG |
| Keith Ross (6'3, 175, Fr.) | -1.9 | -0.14 | 13.3 MPG, 2.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG |
| Marcel Mosley (5'11, 160, Fr.) | -2.1 | -0.09 | 23.8 MPG, 2.0 PPG (13.0% FG), 3.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 2.8 TOPG |
| Antonio Ootesey (6'1, 180, Sr.) | -2.5 | -0.19 | 13.0 MPG, 0.4 PPG (0.0% FG), 1.4 RPG |
| Anthony Jones (6'6, 240, Fr.) | -2.6 | -0.48 | 5.3 MPG, 0.0 PPG |
* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.
- Of the top seven players from last season (in terms of minutes played), only two returned this year. As I said, they had to figure they were going to take a step backwards while figuring everything out.
- Savalance Townsend was a solid all-around player for last season's team, but he is their go-to guy this year. He really doesn't do much wrong -- I guess he turns the ball over too much -- but he's not particularly amazing at anything either. If or when Mizzou beat UAPB tomorrow, Townsend won't be the reason why.
- Daniel Broughton, a Pine Bluff-Watson Chapel product, has done pretty well for a freshman against superior opposition. He easily has the highest per-minute contribution, and I assume his minutes will increase as the season progresses.
- Gavin Mongtomery is the third solid player on the roster. Like Townsend, he really doesn't take anything off the table, and his three steals per game are very impressive. Given his height and weight, I assume he will be covering Kim English quite a bit ... so expect a couple/few turnovers from Kimmeh.
- The rest of the roster is ... okay. Dominic Moore and Allen Smith, both seniors, are decent but can't shoot, and nobody else in the rotation really makes a positive impact. Do yourself a favor and look at some of those shooting percentages. Yikes.
Keys to the Game
- Show Up. Students probably won't, nor will KC or StL alums, but if the team shows up and plays like they did down the stretch against La Salle ... then let's just say that my wish of seeing John Underwood logging a lot of minutes might begin to come true.
- Protect the Ball. UAPB is truly good at one thing: theft. If Mike Dixon, Phil Pressey and company aren't careful with the ball, then the Lions could hang around a while. It appears the only way they can generate easy points is with turnovers, so ... um, don't turn the ball over.
- Kim English. Like I said in the La Salle Study Hall piece, Kimmeh will maintain a permanent spot in the Keys list until he breaks through with a series of good games. If Mizzou can add "Good Kimmeh" to its list of assets -- with Marcus Denmon's scoring, Ricardo Ratliffe's rebounding, etc. -- then this team could be as good as we hoped it would be. But until then, we're not.
Prediction
Prediction: pain. Or, using real numbers, we'll say Mizzou 94, UA-Pine Bluff 59.
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Random Trifecta
Denmon
Kreklow
Bowers
"Smell the perfume but don't drink it because it might kill you." Erin Andrews recounting advise from Gary Pinkel
Trifecta
Denmon
English
Bowers
I'm tell ya like the bath tub told the toilet stool, " I get as much ass as you but I don't have to take all that shit!"
-Dolemite
My first trifecta of the year!
Bowers
Ratliffe
English
"I was a victim of a series of accidents, as are we all."
twitter @sirensofsilence
by sirensofsilence on Nov 27, 2010 11:18 PM CST reply actions
Dixon
Moore
English
RockMNation.com (@rockmnation on Twitter)
The 2010 Missouri Football Preview - Available Now!
Trifecta
Ratliffe
M. Pressey
Denmon
"Blaine Gabbert sucks at life, bring in little gabbert, he will do better."
-Girl behind me at a game
Trifecta!
English
Ratliffe
P Pressey
"I'm a genius, but I'm a misunderstood genius."
"What's misunderstood about you?"
"Nobody thinks I'm a genius."
by Transmogrified Tiger on Nov 27, 2010 11:32 PM CST reply actions
Trifectas
Ratliffe
Bowers
Dixon
And
Nwmsu
Mizzou
Chiefs
"Anderson won't make substitutions. He'll change lines - Tiller, Taylor and English hit the bench while Denmon, Dixon and Paul hop the boards. Welcome to Hockey Night in Columbia. He won't take time outs. He'll take on fuel and tires. Welcome to the Hardwood 400." - Atch
by nwtiger1 on Nov 27, 2010 11:39 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Go Mules.
"Alcohol may be man's worst enemy, but the bible says love your enemy." --Frank Sinatra
by Other Side of the Pillow on Nov 28, 2010 8:38 AM CST up reply actions
Johnny come latelys.
Go Bearcats.
"Anderson won't make substitutions. He'll change lines - Tiller, Taylor and English hit the bench while Denmon, Dixon and Paul hop the boards. Welcome to Hockey Night in Columbia. He won't take time outs. He'll take on fuel and tires. Welcome to the Hardwood 400." - Atch
This trifecta is happening.
Matt Pressey
John Underwood
Ricky Kreklow
Chicago White Sox Examiner — Big hat, no cattle
Given the chance,
Underwood will DOMINATE. Just sayin.
"Alcohol may be man's worst enemy, but the bible says love your enemy." --Frank Sinatra
by Other Side of the Pillow on Nov 28, 2010 8:39 AM CST up reply actions
trifecta
dixon
denmon
safford
Great moments are born from great opportunity.
Follow me on Twitter @muwxman
trifecta
Denmon
Bowers
English
"You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain." - Harvey Dent
Do not look directly into this trifecta
Bowers
Ratliffe
Safford
"Alcohol may be man's worst enemy, but the bible says love your enemy." --Frank Sinatra
by Other Side of the Pillow on Nov 28, 2010 8:50 AM CST reply actions
my despairfecta:
bowers
dixon
denmon
"Football players, like prostitutes, are in the business of ruining their bodies for the pleasure of strangers" -Merle Kessler
bowers
denmon
pressey
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Nov 28, 2010 9:27 AM CST reply actions
as we get ready to leave MN
I say Ratliffe
Dixon
Denmon
When asked to name 3 random players, the Tailgate Queen responded:
English
Kreklow
Safford
Advocating for the "Spreadbone" since 2010
Rock M Nation
by The Beef on Nov 28, 2010 9:51 AM CST via mobile reply actions
but did she
cover the spread?
"Football players, like prostitutes, are in the business of ruining their bodies for the pleasure of strangers" -Merle Kessler
by threadkiller on Nov 28, 2010 11:56 AM CST up reply actions
TRI STF
P. Pressey
’Cardo
Kreklow
Steeeeeeeeeve For the Super.
Bet me!
by TigerBartender on Nov 28, 2010 10:33 AM CST reply actions
trifecta
ratliffe
demnon
steeeeeeve
tried to make sure this wasn’t a double up but I’m not gonna lie, the hangover from celebrating after yesterday has my brain working at minimum capacity.
Trifecta
Ratliffe
PPressey
Bowers
by searchyourfeelingsyouknowittobetrue on Nov 28, 2010 10:51 AM CST reply actions
trifecta
Denmon
Ratliffe
Predator
You don't have to come and confess, we lookin' for you, we gon' find you, we gon' find you. So you can run and tell that, Homeboy.
Tri
Ratliffe
Dixon
Denmon
Kimmeh needs a good game today. We probably can’t beat Georgetown without him.
trifecta
English
Philmajesty
Ratliffe
Hopefully kimmeh feels like blowing up
by Monkeypox on Nov 28, 2010 12:48 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Trifecta
Denmon
Bowers
P. Pressey
Try not to take me too seriously
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