So was I. I couldn't figure out what Stanford likely going to the Rose Bowl had to do with us going to the Orange Bowl. So, I wrote it all out. Here's what I came up with:
Why isn't Stanford going to the Rose? I see that ESPN has TCU going there...
There are 10 slots for BCS bids (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, BCS Champ).
One conference can only get two.
If an AQ conference has a team in the top-2, the AQ position goes to at-large team.
Must be in the top-14 (unless <10 teams are eligible, then top-18)
AQ1 - BCS #1
AQ2 - BCS #2
AQ3 - ACC Champ
AQ4 - B12 Champ
AQ5 - Big East Champ
AQ6 - B10 Champ
AQ7 - Pac10 Champ
AQ8 - SEC Champ
AQ9 - Highest ranked non-BCS champ if in top-12 OR top-16 AND higher than at least one AQ Champ.
AQ10 - 3rd BCS team, if not otherwise AQd. If 3rd place team has already Q'd, AQ10 goes to 4th BCS, if eligible
That's 8 spots taken by Automatic Qualifiers.
1. Auburn - AQ1
2. Oregon - AQ2
3. TCU - AQ9
4. Stanford - 2nd Pac 10 team - AQ10
5. Wisconsin - AQ6
6. Ohio State - 2nd Big 10 team
7. Arkansas - 2nd SEC team
8. Michigan State - 3rd Big 10 team
9. Oklahoma - AQ4
10. LSU - 3rd SEC team
11. Boise State
12. Missouri - 2nd Big 12 team
13. Nebraska - 3rd Big 12 team - likely to fall out of top-14 if Oklahoma wins B12 as expected
14. Oklahoma State - 4th Big 12 team
15*. Va Tech - AQ3
NR. UConn - AQ5
* - If Nebraska loses the Big 12 championship game, there is a high probability of them falling 2+ spots in BCS rankings, moving Virginia Tech into the top-14.
So, yeah, from this, it looks as if Missouri is just barely on the outside looking in, thanks to the Big East and ACC.
Of the teams in the top-14 that are NOT Automatic Qualifiers, that leaves 2 spots available for
Ohio State OR Michigan State
Arkansas OR LSU
Missouri OR Oklahoma State
Given this, I'd say the pecking order of At Large candidates is:
Obviously, this changes if Nebraska wins the Big 12 title game. That moves Missouri down to 13th, as OU would have to fall more than 4 spots in BCS rankings to be passed by Missouri. While this is possible, I think we all know what the likelihood of that happening is.
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