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Wondering why Stanford being in the top-4 knocks Missouri out of the BCS conversation?

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So was I.  I couldn't figure out what Stanford likely going to the Rose Bowl had to do with us going to the Orange Bowl.  So, I wrote it all out.  Here's what I came up with:

Why isn't Stanford going to the Rose?  I see that ESPN has TCU going there...

 

 

 

There are 10 slots for BCS bids (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, BCS Champ).  

One conference can only get two.

If an AQ conference has a team in the top-2, the AQ position goes to at-large team.

Must be in the top-14 (unless <10 teams are eligible, then top-18)

AQ1 - BCS #1

AQ2 - BCS #2

AQ3 - ACC Champ

AQ4 - B12 Champ

AQ5 - Big East Champ

AQ6 - B10 Champ

AQ7 - Pac10 Champ

AQ8 - SEC Champ

AQ9 - Highest ranked non-BCS champ if in top-12 OR top-16 AND higher than at least one AQ Champ.

AQ10 - 3rd BCS team, if not otherwise AQd.  If 3rd place team has already Q'd, AQ10 goes to 4th BCS, if eligible

 

That's 8 spots taken by Automatic Qualifiers.

 

 

1. Auburn - AQ1

2. Oregon - AQ2

3. TCU - AQ9

4. Stanford - 2nd Pac 10 team - AQ10

5. Wisconsin - AQ6

6. Ohio State - 2nd Big 10 team

7. Arkansas - 2nd SEC team

8. Michigan State - 3rd Big 10 team

9. Oklahoma - AQ4

10. LSU - 3rd SEC team

11. Boise State

12. Missouri - 2nd Big 12 team

13. Nebraska - 3rd Big 12 team - likely to fall out of top-14 if Oklahoma wins B12 as expected

14. Oklahoma State - 4th Big 12 team 

15*. Va Tech - AQ3

NR. UConn - AQ5

 

* - If Nebraska loses the Big 12 championship game, there is a high probability of them falling 2+ spots in BCS rankings, moving Virginia Tech into the top-14.

 

So, yeah, from this, it looks as if Missouri is just barely on the outside looking in, thanks to the Big East and ACC.

 

Of the teams in the top-14 that are NOT Automatic Qualifiers, that leaves 2 spots available for 

Ohio State OR Michigan State

Arkansas OR LSU

Boise State

Missouri OR Oklahoma State

 

Given this, I'd say the pecking order of At Large candidates is:

Ohio State

LSU

Boise State

Michigan State

Arkansas

Missouri

Oklahoma State

 

Obviously, this changes if Nebraska wins the Big 12 title game.  That moves Missouri down to 13th, as OU would have to fall more than 4 spots in BCS rankings to be passed by Missouri.  While this is possible, I think we all know what the likelihood of that happening is.

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