I crashed to an epic degree last night, so my streak of weeks in which I got these picks out before Saturday ends at ... one.
Last Week's Results
|Big 12 Games
|0-5 point spread
After nice progress, last week was a water-treading week of sorts ... an 5-12-2 start doomed me, but a 10-5 finish made things respectable. Most categories hovered right around .500, but the 10-20 point range continued its massacre of my 2010 season. Take the 10-20 point spread out of my results, and I'm sitting at 171-155-8 (.524) ... which, considering my horrible job of phasing out projections and phasing in real numbers, isn't terrible. My struggle in that range tells me I still haven't pinpointed the best way to estimate just how much better Team A is than Team B -- my head-to-head numbers are just fine, but the range is still a struggle. We'll see I'm able to actually figure out in the offseason.
This week's picks after the jump.
- "LOCKS" signify games where the spread and projection are more than 17 points apart. At this point, LOCKS are rare, as Vegas seems to have hacked into my damn computer.
- If there is a "(!)" next to the spread, that means the projection and spread are within 2 points of each other ... and you should probably lay off of these picks if you are the betting type. There are far too many of these this week.
- Verdicts in all caps signify games where the underdog is picked to win straight up.
|11/2||6:00pm||Middle Tennessee at Arkansas St.||Ark. St. by 12.6||Ark. St. -1.5||Ark. St. (W)|
|11/3||6:00pm||Rutgers at S. Florida||S. Fla. by 13.5||S. Fla. -10||Rutgers (L)|
|11/4||6:30pm||Buffalo at Ohio||Ohio by 12.2||Ohio -15.5||Buffalo (L)|
|Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech||Va Tech by 27.5||Va. Tech -13||Va Tech (L)|
|11/5||5:00pm||W. Michigan at C. Michigan||C. Mich by 2.5||C. Mich -3.5 (!)||W. Mich (L)|
|7:00pm||C. Florida at Houston||C. Florida by 9.8||C. Florida -2||C. Florida (W)|
|11/6||11:00am||Iowa at Indiana||Iowa by 31.2||Iowa -17||Iowa|
|Minnesota at Michigan St.||Mich. St. by 31.3||Mich. St. -24||Mich. St.|
|Illinois at Michigan||Michigan by 0.02||Michigan -3||Illinois|
|Virginia at Duke||Duke by 1.9||Duke +1||DUKE|
|Louisville at Syracuse||'Cuse by 6.5||'Cuse -6 (!)||Syracuse|
|N.C. State at Clemson||N.C. St. by 1.8||N.C. St. +3.5||N.C. STATE|
|Air Force at Army||AFA by 2.6||AFA -7||Army|
|Maryland at Miami||Miami by 19.9||Miami -8||Miami|
|Wisconsin at Purdue||Wiscy by 30.2||Wiscy -20||Wisconsin|
|11:21am||Florida at Vanderbilt||Florida by 14.6||Florida -14 (!)||Florida|
|11:30am||Baylor at Oklahoma St.||OSU by 16.0||OSU -7||Okla St.|
|12:00pm||Akron at Ball State||Ball St. by 8.1||Ball St. -13.5||Akron|
|1:00pm||Rice at Tulsa||Tulsa by 18.0||Tulsa -17.5 (!)||Tulsa|
|UNLV at BYU||BYU by 19.1||BYU -18 (!)||BYU|
|Colorado at Kansas||Buffs by 21.0||Buffs -8.5||Colorado|
|Temple at Kent State||Temple by 10.4||Temple -3||Temple|
|2:00pm||New Mexico St. at Utah St.||Utah St. by 27.3||Utah St. -18||Utah State|
|2:30pm||Washington at Oregon||Oregon by 24.1||Oregon -35||Washington|
|N. Carolina at Florida St.||Fla. St. by 9.6||Fla. St. -10.5||N .Carolina|
|Nebraska at Iowa State||Nebraska by 29.4||Nebraska -18||Nebraska|
|Hawaii at Boise State||Boise St. by 22.3||Boise St. -21 (!)||Boise St.|
|Alabama at LSU||Alabama by 5.4||Alabama -6.5 (!)||LSU|
|Navy at E. Carolina||E. Carolina by 3.8||E. Carolina -3 (!)||E. Carolina|
|Boston College at Wake Forest||BC by 10.3||BC -3||BC|
|Northwestern at Penn State||Penn St. by 10.5||Penn St. -6||Penn State|
|TCU at Utah||TCU by 3.9||TCU -5 (!)||Utah|
|Southern Miss at Tulane||So Miss by 4.9||So Miss -9.5||Tulane|
|3:00pm||California at Washington State||Cal by 13.3||Cal -14.5 (!)||Wazzu|
|Fresno State at Louisiana Tech||La Tech by 4.3||PICK||La Tech|
|3:15pm||Marshall at UAB||UAB by 14.4||UAB -9.5||Uab|
|3:30pm||Florida Atlantic at W. Kentucky||FAU by 5.5||FAU -2.5||Fla. Atlantic|
|4:00pm||Nevada at Idaho||Nevada by 16.5||Nevada -11||Nevada|
|5:00pm||Wyoming at New Mexico||Wyoming by 9.6||Wyoming -9 (!)||Wyoming|
|6:00pm||Oregon State at UCLA||Oregon St by 15.7||Oregon St -5||Ore. St.|
|UL-Lafayette at Ole Miss||Ole Miss by 21.9||Ole Miss -28||UL-Lafayette|
|Oklahoma at Texas A&M||OU by 9.4||OU -3||Oklahoma|
|Troy at North Texas||Troy by 7.9||Troy -11.5||N. Texas|
|Arkansas at S. Carolina||S. Carolina by 10.9||S. Carolina -3||S. Carolina|
|6:30pm||UL-Monroe at Florida Int'l||FIU by 17.1||FIU -9.5||Fla Int'l|
|7:00pm||Missouri at Texas Tech||Missouri by 21.2||Missouri -4||Mizzou (LOCK)|
|Arizona at Stanford||Stanford by 8.0||Stanford -9.5 (!)||Arizona|
|Tennessee at Memphis||Tennessee by 19.1||Tennessee -20 (!)||Memphis|
|Texas at Kansas State||K-State by 1.8||K-State +3.5||K-STATE|
|8:05pm||SMU at UTEP||SMU by 16.9||SMU -7||Smu|
|9:00pm||Colorado St. at San Diego St.||SDSU by 20.1||SDSU -17.5||Sdsu|
|9:30pm||Arizona State at USC||USC by 14.4||USC -5.5||Usc|
Picks I am Feeling Safest About:
BC -3 Wake Forest. No idea why anybody wouldn't be favored by at least 10 over Wake right now.
Boise State -21 Hawaii. I like Hawaii a lot, but Boise eventually pulls away.
Miami -8 Maryland. I have no idea why, but I think Miami still handles this without Jacory Harris.
Oklahoma State -7 Baylor. OSU's offense is good, and their defense is mediocre. Baylor's offense is good, and their defense is god-awful. I'm rooting for Hot Tub Griffin ... but he's going to have to be pretty incredible today.
SMU -7 UTEP. UTEP's defense is ... not good enough to keep them close in this one.
Picks I am Feeling Queasiest About:
Washington +35 Oregon. Not that Jake Locker is that great, but let's just say I'd be queasy about this pick with Jake Locker playing.
Tulane +9.5 Southern Miss. Southern Miss is pretty hot right now, and Tulane's not good enough to stay within 10 unless USM regresses.
Washington State +14.5 California. If Cal is better than their opponent, they win by 50. If they are worse, they lose by 50. (Slight exaggeration.) Cal's better than Wazzu, so...
Mizzou (LOCK) +4 Texas Tech. I was completely okay with this pick until it reached "LOCK" status. Now I'm petrified.
Memphis +20 Tennesse. I mean ... Tennessee's not good ... but Memphis is turrrrible.