I crashed to an epic degree last night, so my streak of weeks in which I got these picks out before Saturday ends at ... one.
Last Week's Results
| Week 9 | Season | |||
| Type/Range |
W-L |
Win% |
W-L |
Win% |
| ALL GAMES |
24-26-3 |
.472 |
213-226-9 | .485 |
| Big 12 Games |
3-3 | .500 | 31-36 | .463 |
| Upset Picks |
0-2-1 | .167 | 15-25-2 | .381 |
| "LOCKS" |
0-1 | .000 | 5-7 | .417 |
| "Feeling Safe" |
3-2 | .600 | 23-22 | .511 |
| "Feeling Queasy" |
2-2-1 | .500 | 24-18-1 | .570 |
| 0-5 point spread |
2-5-2 | .333 | 56-55-1 | .504 |
| 5-10 points |
12-11-1 | .521 | 62-68-3 | .477 |
| 10-20 points | 4-8 | .333 | 42-71-1 | .373 |
| 20-30 points |
4-2 |
.667 |
37-25 | .597 |
| 30+ points |
1-1 | .500 | 11-13 | .458 |
After nice progress, last week was a water-treading week of sorts ... an 5-12-2 start doomed me, but a 10-5 finish made things respectable. Most categories hovered right around .500, but the 10-20 point range continued its massacre of my 2010 season. Take the 10-20 point spread out of my results, and I'm sitting at 171-155-8 (.524) ... which, considering my horrible job of phasing out projections and phasing in real numbers, isn't terrible. My struggle in that range tells me I still haven't pinpointed the best way to estimate just how much better Team A is than Team B -- my head-to-head numbers are just fine, but the range is still a struggle. We'll see I'm able to actually figure out in the offseason.
This week's picks after the jump.
Your notes:
- "LOCKS" signify games where the spread and projection are more than 17 points apart. At this point, LOCKS are rare, as Vegas seems to have hacked into my damn computer.
- If there is a "(!)" next to the spread, that means the projection and spread are within 2 points of each other ... and you should probably lay off of these picks if you are the betting type. There are far too many of these this week.
- Verdicts in all caps signify games where the underdog is picked to win straight up.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| 11/2 | 6:00pm | Middle Tennessee at Arkansas St. | Ark. St. by 12.6 | Ark. St. -1.5 | Ark. St. (W) |
| 11/3 | 6:00pm | Rutgers at S. Florida | S. Fla. by 13.5 | S. Fla. -10 | Rutgers (L) |
| 11/4 | 6:30pm | Buffalo at Ohio | Ohio by 12.2 | Ohio -15.5 | Buffalo (L) |
| Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech | Va Tech by 27.5 | Va. Tech -13 | Va Tech (L) | ||
| 11/5 | 5:00pm | W. Michigan at C. Michigan | C. Mich by 2.5 | C. Mich -3.5 (!) | W. Mich (L) |
| 7:00pm | C. Florida at Houston | C. Florida by 9.8 | C. Florida -2 | C. Florida (W) | |
| 11/6 | 11:00am | Iowa at Indiana | Iowa by 31.2 | Iowa -17 | Iowa |
| Minnesota at Michigan St. | Mich. St. by 31.3 | Mich. St. -24 | Mich. St. | ||
| Illinois at Michigan | Michigan by 0.02 | Michigan -3 | Illinois | ||
| Virginia at Duke | Duke by 1.9 | Duke +1 | DUKE | ||
| Louisville at Syracuse | 'Cuse by 6.5 | 'Cuse -6 (!) | Syracuse | ||
| N.C. State at Clemson | N.C. St. by 1.8 | N.C. St. +3.5 | N.C. STATE | ||
| Air Force at Army | AFA by 2.6 | AFA -7 | Army | ||
| Maryland at Miami | Miami by 19.9 | Miami -8 | Miami | ||
| Wisconsin at Purdue | Wiscy by 30.2 | Wiscy -20 | Wisconsin | ||
| 11:21am | Florida at Vanderbilt | Florida by 14.6 | Florida -14 (!) | Florida | |
| 11:30am | Baylor at Oklahoma St. | OSU by 16.0 | OSU -7 | Okla St. | |
| 12:00pm | Akron at Ball State | Ball St. by 8.1 | Ball St. -13.5 | Akron | |
| 1:00pm | Rice at Tulsa | Tulsa by 18.0 | Tulsa -17.5 (!) | Tulsa | |
| UNLV at BYU | BYU by 19.1 | BYU -18 (!) | BYU | ||
| Colorado at Kansas | Buffs by 21.0 | Buffs -8.5 | Colorado | ||
| Temple at Kent State | Temple by 10.4 | Temple -3 | Temple | ||
| 2:00pm | New Mexico St. at Utah St. | Utah St. by 27.3 | Utah St. -18 | Utah State | |
| 2:30pm | Washington at Oregon | Oregon by 24.1 | Oregon -35 | Washington | |
| N. Carolina at Florida St. | Fla. St. by 9.6 | Fla. St. -10.5 | N .Carolina | ||
| Nebraska at Iowa State | Nebraska by 29.4 | Nebraska -18 | Nebraska | ||
| Hawaii at Boise State | Boise St. by 22.3 | Boise St. -21 (!) | Boise St. | ||
| Alabama at LSU | Alabama by 5.4 | Alabama -6.5 (!) | LSU | ||
| Navy at E. Carolina | E. Carolina by 3.8 | E. Carolina -3 (!) | E. Carolina | ||
| Boston College at Wake Forest | BC by 10.3 | BC -3 | BC | ||
| Northwestern at Penn State | Penn St. by 10.5 | Penn St. -6 | Penn State | ||
| TCU at Utah | TCU by 3.9 | TCU -5 (!) | Utah | ||
| Southern Miss at Tulane | So Miss by 4.9 | So Miss -9.5 | Tulane | ||
| 3:00pm | California at Washington State | Cal by 13.3 | Cal -14.5 (!) | Wazzu | |
| Fresno State at Louisiana Tech | La Tech by 4.3 | PICK | La Tech | ||
| 3:15pm | Marshall at UAB | UAB by 14.4 | UAB -9.5 | Uab | |
| 3:30pm | Florida Atlantic at W. Kentucky | FAU by 5.5 | FAU -2.5 | Fla. Atlantic | |
| 4:00pm | Nevada at Idaho | Nevada by 16.5 | Nevada -11 | Nevada | |
| 5:00pm | Wyoming at New Mexico | Wyoming by 9.6 | Wyoming -9 (!) | Wyoming | |
| 6:00pm | Oregon State at UCLA | Oregon St by 15.7 | Oregon St -5 | Ore. St. | |
| UL-Lafayette at Ole Miss | Ole Miss by 21.9 | Ole Miss -28 | UL-Lafayette | ||
| Oklahoma at Texas A&M | OU by 9.4 | OU -3 | Oklahoma | ||
| Troy at North Texas | Troy by 7.9 | Troy -11.5 | N. Texas | ||
| Arkansas at S. Carolina | S. Carolina by 10.9 | S. Carolina -3 | S. Carolina | ||
| 6:30pm | UL-Monroe at Florida Int'l | FIU by 17.1 | FIU -9.5 | Fla Int'l | |
| 7:00pm | Missouri at Texas Tech | Missouri by 21.2 | Missouri -4 | Mizzou (LOCK) | |
| Arizona at Stanford | Stanford by 8.0 | Stanford -9.5 (!) | Arizona | ||
| Tennessee at Memphis | Tennessee by 19.1 | Tennessee -20 (!) | Memphis | ||
| Texas at Kansas State | K-State by 1.8 | K-State +3.5 | K-STATE | ||
| 8:05pm | SMU at UTEP | SMU by 16.9 | SMU -7 | Smu | |
| 9:00pm | Colorado St. at San Diego St. | SDSU by 20.1 | SDSU -17.5 | Sdsu | |
| 9:30pm | Arizona State at USC | USC by 14.4 | USC -5.5 | Usc |
Picks I am Feeling Safest About:
-
BC -3 Wake Forest. No idea why anybody wouldn't be favored by at least 10 over Wake right now.
-
Boise State -21 Hawaii. I like Hawaii a lot, but Boise eventually pulls away.
-
Miami -8 Maryland. I have no idea why, but I think Miami still handles this without Jacory Harris.
-
Oklahoma State -7 Baylor. OSU's offense is good, and their defense is mediocre. Baylor's offense is good, and their defense is god-awful. I'm rooting for Hot Tub Griffin ... but he's going to have to be pretty incredible today.
-
SMU -7 UTEP. UTEP's defense is ... not good enough to keep them close in this one.
Picks I am Feeling Queasiest About:
-
Washington +35 Oregon. Not that Jake Locker is that great, but let's just say I'd be queasy about this pick with Jake Locker playing.
-
Tulane +9.5 Southern Miss. Southern Miss is pretty hot right now, and Tulane's not good enough to stay within 10 unless USM regresses.
-
Washington State +14.5 California. If Cal is better than their opponent, they win by 50. If they are worse, they lose by 50. (Slight exaggeration.) Cal's better than Wazzu, so...
-
Mizzou (LOCK) +4 Texas Tech. I was completely okay with this pick until it reached "LOCK" status. Now I'm petrified.
-
Memphis +20 Tennesse. I mean ... Tennessee's not good ... but Memphis is turrrrible.
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