FanPost

Ken Pomeroy projects 10-6 conference record for Tigers, 23-7 overall

Take a look at the complete schedule here. Keep in mind, the projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions. (In Mizzou's case, it doesn't equal...the individual game projections give the Tigers at 12-4 conference record and 25-5 overall.)

Here's what jumped out to me. Rankings are according to Ken Pomeroy's system.

Key wins

  • 73-71 vs no. 11 Georgetown (Neutral)
  • 77-69 vs no. 38 Vanderbilt (Home)
  • 76-72 vs no. 8 kansas State (Home)
  • 75-72 vs no. 7 Baylor (Home)
  • 74-73 vs no. 3 kansas (Home)

Projections says Mizzou goes undefeated at home, including three wins over top-10 teams.

Key losses

  • 71-70 vs no. 9 Illinois (Neutral) - First loss of the season
  • 71-70 vs no. 35 Texas A&M (Road) - First conference loss
  • 73-70 vs no. 17 Texas (Road) - Really? Could happen, but I like our chances here.
  • 77-70 vs no. 3 kansas (Road)
  • 77-72 vs no. 8 kansas State (Road)

So of our five "projected losses", all are away from home and all are close (three are one-possession games). Three are against top-10 opponents, two of which are on the road.

Pomeroy gives the Tigers 0% chance of finishing undefeated, and 0.03% chance of sweeping the Big 12. (So you're telling me there's a chance...)

The projections give the conference championship to kansas, with Mizzou finishing fifth, I think (loss to Texas gives the Longhorns the tiebreaker and a first-round bye in the Big 12 tournament).

How accurate do you think this is? Would you be happy with this season?

FanPosts may be posted by any RMN member and may not reflect the views of the management staff of Rock M Nation or SB Nation.

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