Woohoo, a 6:30 tip-off!! And a golden opportunity to move to six conference wins.
Don't forget to post your Trifecta picks!
Iowa State: 13-10 (2-6)
|Points Per Minute
|Points Per Possession (PPP)
|Points Per Shot (PPS)
|True Shooting %||55.2%||50.1%|
|Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
|Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm||12.3||13.8|
Ken Pomeroy Stats
|ISU Offense vs MU Defense Ranks
|ISU Offense||MU Defense||Advantage|
|Turnover %||141||1||MU Big|
|Off. Reb. %||164||321||ISU Big|
|MU Offense vs ISU Defense Ranks
|MU Offense||ISU Defense||Advantage|
|Turnover %||45||316||MU Big|
|Off. Reb. %||129||117||Push|
Iowa State is a pretty interesting team. They don't really have any bad losses, they have a lot of size, and they are experienced ... but away from Hilton, they are pretty poor, they don't rebound well for their size, and they play the most passive defense Mizzou will see this year. They appear to have more going for them than they apparently do, and here's to hoping they don't handle Mizzou's system any better than they did last year, when they lost by 14 in Ames and 31 in Columbia.
Where the Clones are strongest
Where they are weakest
Marcus Denmon), so it appears they have a choice to make. Either have Gilstrap and Brackins in for scoring and defensive rebounds, but allow for the fact that both of them (Brackins in particular) seem to wander the perimeter a lot, or stick in the backups for second chance points and relinquish any defensive rebounding advantage you have.
The backups do also block shots better than Brackins/Gilstrap -- Dendy averages a damn impressive 0.09 blocks per minute (Laurence Bowers: 0.08) and Jamie Vanderbeken averages 0.07, but Brackins (0.04) and Gilstrap (0.03) are almost non-factors in this regard. So the backups are the hustle guys, Brackins/Gilstrap are the steady guys. Either way, they rank outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive rebounding, which is inexcusable with their size.
and Justin Hamilton) are quite poor on the defensive end (0.13 def. rebs per minute, just a hair better than
ISU's Season to Date
Wins vs KenPom's Top 200
at #85 Nebraska (56-53)
#89 Colorado (64-63)
#91 Houston (82-75, 2OT)
vs #113 St. Louis (65-54)
#144 Bradley (87-68)
#159 Iowa (81-71)
at #173 Drake (90-70)
#1 Kansas (61-84)
vs #2 Duke (65-86)
#9 Kansas State (75-79)
#12 Texas (83-90)
at #16 Baylor (63-84)
at #17 California (63-82)
#48 Northern Iowa (60-63)
vs #62 Northwestern (65-67)
at #82 Texas Tech (71-78)
at #90 Oklahoma (84-89)
You've got to say this for ISU: they don't have any bad losses. They don't have any good wins either, but they have been startlingly consistent. They are 0-8 versus Ken Pomeroy's Top 80, 3-2 versus #80-90, and 10-0 versus everybody below #90. (It should surprise nobody, then, to learn that they rank #87.) They played K-State and Texas well at home, losing by single digits both times, but they have played three KenPom Top 20 teams (Mizzou is #13) away from Hilton Coliseum and have lost by 21, 21, and 19. Being that Mizzou's style tends to inflate blowouts a bit, I don't think it would surprise anybody if Mizzou won by 25+ tomorrow night. That said, they could struggle at Hilton. Hilton's always a tough place to play -- Mizzou has won two of three there, but lost seven in a row before that -- and ISU is certainly a solid team there.
ISU Player Stats
|Craig Brackins (6'10, 230, Jr.)||16.8||0.49||34.5 MPG, 17.0 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.3 BPG, 2.1 TOPG|
|Marquis Gilstrap (6'7, 215, Sr.)||14.0||0.46||30.3 MPG, 14.7 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.2 APG, 2.7 TOPG|
|Diante Garrett (6'4, 190, Jr.)||9.1||0.30||30.1 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 2.5 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 2.6 TOPG|
|LaRon Dendy (6'9, 230, Jr.)||8.1||0.52||15.4 MPG, 7.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG|
|Justin Hamilton (6'11, 260, So.)||7.7||0.39||19.6 MPG, 5.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.1 BPG|
|Scott Christopherson (6'3, 200, So.)||5.3||0.23||23.6 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.3 TOPG|
|Jamie Vanderbeken (6'11, 250, Sr.)||4.9||0.37||13.2 MPG, 4.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG|
|Charles Boozer (6'3, 205, Jr.)||3.4||0.35||9.7 MPG, 3.5 PPG, 1.5 RPG|
|Chris Colvin (6'3, 195, Fr.)||1.4||0.09||14.4 MPG, 3.3 PPG, 2.4 APG, 1.3 RPG, 2.2 TOPG|
|Dominique Buckley (6'2, 200, So.)||1.3||0.19||7.0 MPG, 1.7 PPG, 1.1 APG|
|Alex Door (6'7, 210, Fr.)||0.9||0.35||2.5 MPG, 0.7 PPG|
* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.
- There's one thing in particular that jumps out at me about these stats: they have two non-impact freshmen, two solid sophomores (and a non-impact soph) ... and everybody else is an underclassman. Brackins will almost certainly go pro after this year (says me, anyway), and ISU's size will be further depleted by the departure of Gilstrap and Vanderbeken.
- So their size advantage goes away, and they don't really do much to improve their guard play (they have one 3-star guard commit in the current class). Now, Colvin was a 4-star signee a year ago, so he could blossom into something decent (he's getting decent minutes this year ... he's just not doing anything with them), but ... how do I put this delicately ... Greg McDermott has had an issue with players transferring (hello, Wesley Johnson) or leaving early (Mike Taylor), and Colvin has already been suspended once this season for violations of team rules. I'm not saying he's going to transfer after this season or anything, but I'm just going to say that the suspension and lack of production are both red flags, and while I'm not predicting it, it wouldn't completely surprise me if Colvin's not on the team next year. If he does return, he's going to need to blossom quickly ... because they need the help.
- I like Dendy. He appears to be a very good energy booster off the bench. His per-minute numbers are strong across the board, especially in terms of fouls drawn, offensive rebounds, and blocks. If ISU hangs around in this game, it will be because they utilized their size advantage, especially on the offensive glass, and Dendy appears to be their best hope for doing that.
Keys to the Game
Mizzou's defensive rebounding numbers are just egregious, but if they can hold their own tomorrow night, they win.
Or, you know, they could attack the rim and see what happens.
Mizzou is four wins away from the vaunted nine conference wins that would give them a 99% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. This and the Colorado home game represent the two most likely wins remaining on the schedule. It's not the end of the world if Mizzou blows this one, but ... it would be pretty bad. Really bad.
If ISU wins ... Christopherson made quite a few 3-pointers, Mizzou's bigs got in foul trouble, Brackins scored 20+, Mizzou shot under 30% from 3-point range, and the sometimes fickle Mizzou fans tensed up and turned Mizzou Arena into a ball of anxiety. If all of those things happen (which certainly isn't impossible), ISU will have a very good chance of pulling the upset. If ISU wins, I'm thinking of something in the area of 68-66.
If Mizzou wins ...
I think Mizzou faces a very tough game Saturday in Waco, but I don't think they'll be looking ahead to it or anything. They'll be searching for Mizzou Arena redemption after last week's collapse against ATM, and they'll get it. We'll go with Door #3, an 84-58 Mizzou win.