Rock-M-tology: March 12
by Bill C. on Mar 12, 2010 9:30 AM CST
in Rock-M-tology
56 comments
No extra analysis -- let's get right to the rises and falls.
Biggest Rise
St. Mary's - I was really torn on how to handle them if they lost to Gonzaga in the WCC finals again. I didn't think the committee was going to show them or Utah State a lot of respect in losses, but they took care of that problem by whipping the Zags.
Washington - Amazing what can happen when you just win while everybody else falls apart. The Huskies haven't played anybody even remotely good since losing to Cal on 2/11, but they've won seven of eight and ten of twelve, and they look really good just by not looking terrible.
Cincinnati - They played their way back to the edge of the bubble, but they needed at least one more win to get back to real consideration ... and they dribbled the ball off their legs against WVU instead.
Dayton - How bad have the bubble teams performed this week? Dayton loses five of seven to end the regular season, but by simply beating George Washington on Tuesday, the Flyers crept back into consideration. If Washington and Illinois lose today, they might be right back in the friggin' draw.
Seton Hall - They're technically in right now thanks to their win over Providence, but if Illinois beats Wisconsin today, or if there's any upset conference tourney winner (and there's usually one), then they're probably out. They didn't put up enough of a fight against Notre Dame on Wednesday, but ... they're in by default at the moment.
Biggest Fall
Arizona State - Guys, all you needed to do was not lose to 7-seed Stanford yesterday, and you were probably in. Then you went and got dominated in the second half and lost. NOBODY wants these last few bubble spots.
Memphis - Guys, all you needed to do was not lose to 7-seed Houston yesterday, and you were probably in. Then you went and got dominated in the first half and lost. NOBODY wants these last few bubble spots.
UAB - Guys, all you needed to do was not lose to 6-seed Southern Miss yesterday, and you were probably in. Then you went and got dominated in the first half and lost.. NOBODY wants these last few bubble spots.
Wake Forest - Just in case you thought Mizzou had the least impressive showing of any likely 7-10 seed over the weekend, the Deacs went and lost to 12-seed Miami by 21 yesterday.
In all, any justifiable hand-wringing Mizzou fans were putting themselves through should have gone completely out the window. Thanks to everybody else's own horrific performances, not only is Mizzou nowhere close to the bubble line, they're not even in the Last 8 In. And they only fell one seed!
Last 8 In
Florida
Notre Dame
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
San Diego State
Ole Miss
Washington
Seton Hall
As I said, The Hall's probably not really in when all's said and done, but if Illinois and Dayton both lay eggs today and nobody sneaks in via tourney upset, maybe they're safe. Either way, I'm not happy about it ... was REALLY not wanting to have to draw up a bracket with 9 teams from the same conference, but alas ...
First 8 9 Out
Illinois
Dayton
Memphis
UAB
Cincinnati
Rhode Island
Arizona State
Mississippi State
Seriously, one more win and Cincinnati might have gone from "Definitely out" to "In" in just a couple of days. I do think, though, that if the Illini win today, they're in again.
By Conference
9 - Big East
7 - ACC, Big 12
5 - SEC
4 - Big Ten, Mountain West
3 - Atlantic 10
2 - Pac-10, WCC
Nine. Ugh. Meanwhile, right now the Big East, ACC and Big 12 take up TWENTY-THREE SPOTS in the field. This is Billy Packer's dream bracket come true.
The Bracket
Midwest Region (in St. Louis)
1 Kansas vs 16 Lehigh
8 Northern Iowa vs 9 Virginia Tech
in Oklahoma City
5 Georgetown vs 12 Ole Miss
4 Temple vs 13 Washington
in Spokane
6 Butler vs 11 Wake Forest
3 New Mexico vs 14 Montana
in San Jose
7 Oklahoma State vs 10 Utah State
2 Villanova vs 15 Vermont
in Providence
West Region (in Salt Lake City)
1 Kentucky vs 16 East Tennessee St.
8 Gonzaga vs 9 Marquette
in New Orleans
5 Texas A&M vs 12 San Diego State
4 Michigan State vs 13 Wofford
in Spokane
6 Texas vs 11 California
3 Ohio State vs 14 Akron
in Milwaukee
7 Clemson vs 10 Florida
2 West Virginia vs 15 Morgan State
in Buffalo
South Region (in Houston)
1 Syracuse vs 16 Winthrop / UA-Pine Bluff
8 UNLV vs 9 St. Mary's
in Buffalo
5 Maryland vs 12 Siena
4 Tennessee vs 13 Cornell
in Jacksonville
6 Xavier vs 11 UTEP
3 Baylor vs 14 Sam Houston
in New Orleans
7 Florida State vs 10 Notre Dame
2 Purdue vs 15 UC-Santa Barbara
in Milwaukee
East Region (in Syracuse)
1 Duke vs 16 Robert Morris
8 Missouri vs 9 Louisville
in Jacksonville
5 BYU vs 12 Seton Hall
4 Wisconsin vs 13 Murray State
in San Jose
6 Vanderbilt vs 11 Georgia Tech
3 Pittsburgh vs 14 Oakland
in Providence
7 Richmond vs 10 Old Dominion
2 Kansas State vs 15 North Texas
in Oklahoma City
My At-First-Glance Final Four
Kansas, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kansas State
Second glance: Georgetown, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
Missouri's inevitable path to destiny™ (ahem)
Louisville, Duke, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Tennessee, Kansas
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Mizzou. Louisville..
That would be an interesting one.
Annoying You Since 1986
Louisville fits my "crappy 3-point defense" criteria...
…so I’m all for it!
Rock M Nation
I'm on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/billconnelly1
Duke and their #2 3 pt defense...
Not so much.
Annoying You Since 1986
That path to destiny isn't that bad actually..
I mean Illinois won at wisconson, We’ve beaten K State, as far as final fours go Tennesee is not too bad….and I’ll just prey that Kansas has a mental lapse and loses somewhere.
Annoying You Since 1986
That Wake Forest game
made me feel much better about our loss to NU.
"So we finish the 18th and he's gonna stiff me. And I say, 'Hey, Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know".
Yes and No.
Miami was still the 53rd best team according to KenPom…Nebraska is 90th.
Annoying You Since 1986
Not statistical feel good
But it was just nice to have another team lose in a similar situation, but by more points.
"So we finish the 18th and he's gonna stiff me. And I say, 'Hey, Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know".
By the way....
…I had Mizzou at an 8, but I do fully expect them to be a 10 on Sunday. I do think the committee views the Big 12 in lesser regard than I do, and while I actually had Baylor as the highest 3-seed and ATM as a potential 4, I don’t think they (or Texas, or Mizzou) will end up that high.
Rock M Nation
I'm on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/billconnelly1
I believe that Mizzou will be on the 8/9 line as a procedural bump.
K State will get a two. Texas, A&M, and OK State will all be on the 6/7 seed lines. That means Mizzou will be bumped to the other half of the bracket which limits them to 1/4/5/8/9 seeds.
Annoying You Since 1986
OK state as a 6 or 7 seed?
Aren’t they technically going to be the last Big 12 team in. Maybe I’m not reading your statement correctly.
Oklahoma State has
4 wins vs the RPI top 25. And 0 losses outside the top 100. Compared to our 2 and 3 respectively. Yes we beat them, but we have the same # of conference wins now. If you dont believe me, check Lunardi who has them 3 seeds above us.
Annoying You Since 1986
Whole body of work wise,
OSU will and should be ahead of us.
Annoying You Since 1986
And I say "good."
Let’s assume, just for the sake of ease, that Mizzou becomes the 10 seed in the region Bill currently lists them in.
They go from a Louisville-Duke-Wisconsin-Kansas State Path To Destiny…
…to a Richmond-Kansas State-Pitt-Duke Path To Destiny.
Obviously, with conference implications, that wouldn’t actually happen (playing K-State in the second round), but it just speaks to the advantage of being underseeded.
"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010
Absolutely
Remember what happened in 2002…that team, which is probably the most talented Mizzou team I’ve seen in the 15 or so years I’ve been following them, underachieved it’s way into a fantastic tournament draw as a 12 seed and was a few free throws away from beating Oklahoma and heading to the final four.
"This looks like it could be gravy."
-Carl the Groundskeeper, Caddyshack
by MissouriMarine on Mar 12, 2010 1:08 PM CST up reply actions
I think your "first glance" Final Four was right
I feel pretty strong about West Virginia this year. Although, Huggins usually implodes during the tournament, so that is cause for alarm.
Mizzou as a 10 seed would be MUCH better than an 8…because you are, for all intents and purposes, making them a 7, which means a better second round match-up (not MUCH better, but anytime you can avoid playing a 1 the first weekend it’s an improvement).
And it did my heart good to see Houston lay a whoopin on Pastner yesterday. Cougar time! And I’m not talking Courtney Cox.
"Wherever you go, there you are" - Buckaroo Bonzai
agreed on the #10
the 8/9 seed is a death seed, IMO
by jschooltiger on Mar 12, 2010 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
Then root for A&M to get hot and win the whole thing...
And move up to a 4 or 5.
Annoying You Since 1986
Kansas State playing
my alma mater.
Go Big Green!
Hahhaa!!
Mike doesn’t want that. He doesn’t need to go out and sign a bunch of McDonald’s All-Americans. He just needs to go find a few Burger King-type guys and he’ll get it done.
by tigers and chiefs fan on Mar 12, 2010 10:45 AM CST reply actions
CBS Sports
has Kansas potentially playing Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Orange Lantern Lex Luthor. No way they survive that run.
Any chance we drop to an 11?
"So we finish the 18th and he's gonna stiff me. And I say, 'Hey, Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know".
that's what someone was predicting right after they lost
but that was right after they lost. i don’t think there’s any chance of being an 11 seed, especially after what has happened to the bubble. an 11 seed usually signifies you were one of the last 8 in, and obviously that’s not going to be the case with mizzou.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 12, 2010 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
i can't believe you have seton hall in right now?
just can’t believe it. there might not be a less deserving team in the country than freakin’ seton hall.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 12, 2010 12:01 PM CST reply actions
should be a period, not a question mark
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 12, 2010 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
I can't believe it either...
…but who’s more deserving? Nobody.
Rock M Nation
I'm on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/billconnelly1
I sure hope
we don’t wear our gold jerseys in the tournament again.
"So we finish the 18th and he's gonna stiff me. And I say, 'Hey, Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know".
they sure worked against memphis.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 12, 2010 12:49 PM CST up reply actions
Evan Turner
wow. he’s good.
"So we finish the 18th and he's gonna stiff me. And I say, 'Hey, Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know".
seriously
four back to back game winning shots there
"This looks like it could be gravy."
-Carl the Groundskeeper, Caddyshack
by MissouriMarine on Mar 12, 2010 1:09 PM CST up reply actions
What happened, I missed the game. Something about a half-court three to win it?
"Sometimes when Will Ebner tackles people, I think they are going to explode on impact."
michigan had a two point lead with thirty secs left
then OSU scored to tie it with 9 secs left
Michigan scored again on a fadeaway with 2 secs left to take the lead by 2.
Michigan declined to guard the inbounds pass and Evan Turner from OSU got the ball dribbled down court and hit a 40-ft shot to win the game
"This looks like it could be gravy."
-Carl the Groundskeeper, Caddyshack
by MissouriMarine on Mar 12, 2010 1:32 PM CST up reply actions
Watching OSU, I would like that potential matchup in the tournament
You can’t play 6 guys against Mizzou….even if that starting-5 is stacked.
Not afraid to nitpick
Against the Mizzou team that played Nebraska I'm pretty sure Turner could play alone and beat us.
In other news..appears Illinois really wants a bid. Up 27-18 on Wiscy 2 min left in 1st.
Annoying You Since 1986
Tennessee? Yeah, not so much.
They just aren’t good. SEC it terrible this year outside of Kentucky. That projected South Region is super weak though. I’m kind of hoping Frank Martin and Co. can pull a couple out and get that #1 seed over ’Cuse.
And I think this projection really underestimates tOSU. There’s talk of them as a #1. This has them as a #3. Gotta say, they are my favorite for the B10 Tourney. Maybe flip Purdue and tOSU and I’d be ok with it.
Former Mizzourah.net asshat
I'm not sure who is shown more:
Chase Daniel’s family in the Alamo Bowl or Michael Jordan at the B10 Tournament
"Sometimes when Will Ebner tackles people, I think they are going to explode on impact."
Andy Katz hates us.
Via @ESPNAndyKatz
If Auburn offiically fires Jeff Lebo as being reported in Birm News then Tony Barbee, Chuck Person, Mike Anderson, Mike Davis viable.
Former Mizzourah.net asshat
Oh what a terrible terrible…terrible rumour.
by KCTiger on Mar 12, 2010 2:41 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
"Mike Anderson is a candidate"...
is a rumor that will probably jump up every year, much like with Pinkel. Nature of the business.
It offically hit stupidity last year when they thought he’d leave the Big 12 for CUSA. Although this rumor is at least logical (heading to SEC, a – seemingly – conference on equal footing), I still don’t buy it. SELL SELL SELL.
"Wherever you go, there you are" - Buckaroo Bonzai
He was a candidate for Bama and Georgia last year.
Get your own coaching candidates, SEC!
Former Mizzourah.net asshat
Rock M Nation's official response:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Auburn. Basketball.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Rock M Nation
I'm on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/billconnelly1
by Bill C. on Mar 12, 2010 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
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chuck person the rifleman? who's he been coaching.
yes, i guess i live under a rock.
"Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries." French soldier
by threadkiller on Mar 12, 2010 5:59 PM CST up reply actions
A list of colleges for which Mike Anderson will
always be a candidate:
"This team is just one unit that gels so good. We need everybody, but we don’t need nobody." --Mr. Coffee
by Other Side of the Pillow on Mar 12, 2010 6:09 PM CST up reply actions
I'll say this
If the Utah Career College – Online manages to lure CMA away, I’m going postal.
I had actually meant the list all the way at the bottom:
Alabama additional schools
below the ads :)
"This team is just one unit that gels so good. We need everybody, but we don’t need nobody." --Mr. Coffee
by Other Side of the Pillow on Mar 12, 2010 8:52 PM CST up reply actions
Holy cow
This Ill vs Wisc game is getting crazy now.
by KCTiger on Mar 12, 2010 3:28 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Based on the above bracket...
Assuming 8/9 line: I would choose Duke to come out against. Not an athletic team (per Gottlieb, lol) but it would have to be a coaching “moment” from CMA, engaging the guards, esp Denmon and Taylor to really work on penetrating, instead of settling for 3’s, especially if they are contested, or not going in.
Assuming 10/7 line: I would choose Purdue to come out to, if only for the injury question marks.
Bet me!
Hold Up! Richmond has a higher seed....
I kno we crapped out of Big 12 tourney but man… we are better than richmond
and wow how lucky would we be if we got that path i mean…
Lousville – Win
Duke – worst No. 1 seed
Wisconsin – idk i hate facing Big Ten teams wayyyy to good of defense
KSU – we’ve beaten before
TEN – easily most beatable Final Four
KU – yeh uhh… well…
With that said, I simply think our path is pretty darn considering we have an #8 seed…. duke doesn’t scare me neither does KSU or TEN…..
but i fucking hate Big 10 defenses and think we’ll lose at Wisconsin…
Sat, Nov 28 at Richmond L 52-59
"This team is just one unit that gels so good. We need everybody, but we don’t need nobody." --Mr. Coffee
by Other Side of the Pillow on Mar 12, 2010 7:24 PM CST up reply actions
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