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Rock M Roundtable!

1 - Roughly how many minutes of the NFL Draft did you watch last week/weekend?

2 - Fred Hoiberg: inspired move ... or desperate hire?  And will he still be The Mayor if he doesn't succeed there?

3 - Somehow, the Phillies decided Ryan Howard was worth $25 million/year.  With that, um, tweak to the overall market, what is Albert Pujols' annual salary going to be when he signs his next contract (with whatever team that may be) soon?

4 - Billy Corgan and Courtney Love feuding on Twitter: the greatest thing the Internet has ever produced, or reason for the entire Internet to be abolished?

Star-divide

Doug: 1 - I watched a great deal of the first round and second round, and part of the third round.  I was at work so that cut into my ability to watch it a little bit.  On Saturday I saw the Chiefs' last picks and the very end of the draft, so I missed a good portion of the later rounds.  Time wise, let's say about 8 hours.

2 - Oh, desperation hire beyond words.  Frank Martin had some experience as at least a head coach in high school.  The Mayor has one season as an assistant coach with the Timberwolves, and about 5 seasons in the front office.  There is no earthly way this is a good idea, it's like Iowa State just stopped caring about basketball.

3 - Well, Howard is worth every one of those 25 million dollars a year, and at least one team will agree that Pujols is worth about $35 million a year.  Frankly I thought Howard was going to let Pujols set the market price first, but 25 mill annually for Howard only increases Pujols' bargining power.

4 - Is a Twitter feud any worse than someone using Twitter to tell you where they are, or what their plans are for the day, or posting pictures of them eating pizza?  At least a feud provides us all with a good laugh.  And, in deference to Atch, I won't post the picture, but we all know what arguing on the Internet is like.

RPT: 1. Somewhat ashamed to admit that I watched quite a bit of it, although I should qualify that I had it on in the background while playing NHL and NCAA.

2. Desperately inspired.

3. How much money do the Yankees have left?

4. I will say this: There was talk at the Spring Game tailgate of a Baby The Beef Twitter account, and I will not rest until this happens.

Michael Atchison: 1 - I watched roughly 114 minutes of the draft.

2 - It sounds like a Circle the Wagons move.  Things have gone all kinds of wrong there, so they get a guy they know, trust and love.  It could work.  Don’t underestimate the recruiting value of a solid NBA pedigree.  Played in the league for a long time, knows every front office guy there is.  That will appeal to some kids.  But he’s got a steep learning curve to climb, and it’s too late to do any recruiting of value for next year.  I think ISU fans will be super patient with him.  The question about failure is interesting.  If he doesn’t succeed, he gets out of town for three or four years, all the feelings are dulled, and he comes back a hero from his playing days.  But if it works, he ends up as one of the great Cyclones ever.

3 - It didn’t really tweak the market that much.  ARod already makes more and Mauer makes nearly as much, and I’m always skeptical of the idea that one deal can change the market.  ARod’s 10 years and $252 million didn’t have much immediate impact because it was crazy.

But how much is Albert worth if Howard is worth $25 million?  Probably $30-35 million.  But here’s the thing: The player that Albert has been over the past ten years is worth that much.  The player he is five years from now almost certainly won’t be.  He is (at least) 30 years old.  History tells you that he’s at the end of his peak.  He can still be very productive for several years, but he probably can’t be a 1.100 OPS guy for much longer.

4 - Are those really the only two choices?

ZouDave: 1 - I watched the entire first round, most of the 2nd round, part of the 3rd round, and nothing beyond that.  Not sure how many minutes that is.

2 - I think it's a great move for them.  They needed something to be excited about and this will do it.  He may not succeed, but it doesn't mean the fans will just turn on him.  Frank White is still one of the most beloved Royals of all time despite failing as a minor league manager in our system.

3 - I heard on ESPNews awhile ago that his agent said their target is a $300M contract.  They didn't mention the length, but I think it's pretty obvious they're looking for 10 years, $300M.  NO WAY does Pujols get a $30M/year contract through age 40*.  Just isn't going to happen.  But $30M/year is going to happen, probably for 7 years.  I hope it's the Cardinals, but really I hope it's anyone besides the Yankees or Boston.

4 - Yawn.

(An hour later...)

ghtd36: Morning, friends.

1 - I watched a lot more than I thought I would, especially considering I don't really have an NFL team. I watched the entire first round, most of the second day and bits and pieces of the third day.

And now, a mini-rant: can we put Chris Berman out to pasture? He's awful. I know it's fashionable to rip on Chris Berman, but there are reasons why it is fashionable to rip on Chris Berman. He provides exactly nothing -- he's a tired bit who has absolutely worn out his usefulness. At least Stuart Scott (another walking bit) knows a little bit about the NBA; Berman's clueless. Beyond that, why am I supposed to trust anything that Jon Gruden says? Because he was an NFL head coach? Do you realize how little an NFL head coach has to do with talent evaluation? Wade Phillips didn't pick Dez Bryant on Thursday, because if Wade Phillips were left in charge of the draft, he would have picked that lineman from Varsity Blues. ESPN is just the worst.

2 - It's a desperate move, but a desperate move that I understand. The new coach has to create a bit of a buzz around the program again, and that's what Hoiberg does. Will he be a good coach? Ehh, probably not. But buzz!

3 - Aaah, yes. The question I couldn't wait to answer.

First of all, let's establish one thing: this is not a good contract. In fact, this is a miserable contract. This enters the Pantheon of Bad Contracts, and is currently in the running for Worst Contract in Baseball (along with Alfonso Soriano's 8-year, $136 million deal from the Cubs, Aaron Rowand's 5-year, $60 million deal from the Giants, Carlos Lee's 6-year, $100 million deal from the Lastros and Vernon Wells' 7-year, $126 million deal from the Blue Jays).

And that's not to mention Jason Kendall getting a two-year deal from the Royals. Really, Dayton Moore? Two years for a 36-year-old catcher whose last season of not-distinctly-below-average performance was 2004? Are you even trying anymore?

But back to Howard. It is ludicrous to pay Ryan Howard -- who, I remind you, will turn 31 this season -- $25 million a year. I could go on and on about how Ryan Howard simply isn't worth $25 million a year, but let's just leave it at this:

Ryan Howard's career OPS vs. lefties: .750
Player X's career OPS overall: .751

One guess on who Player X is. One guess.

Give up? Click here for the answer.

Anyway, part of me just wants to write this off as Ruben Amaro being Ruben Amaro and overpaying for the sake of overpaying. But this contract is so out there...so phenomenally obese...that part of me thinks this could be a ploy to get Pujols out of the National League. Right now, if you're Pujols, and you are realistically 1.5 times better than Ryan Howard (Pujols career WAR per game: 0.046; Howard: 0.029), AND RYAN HOWARD IS MAKING $25 MILLION A YEAR, aren't you asking for at least $35 million a year? Doesn't the bidding start at 8-years, $280 million?

If I'm Pujols' agent, well, I'm greedily tapping the tips of my fingers together. I'm representing the best player in the league, and the price just went up. Part of me would try to convince Pujols to be a gun for hire and take only 1-year deals for four years or so. You're telling me that the Red Sox wouldn't pay 1-year, $40 million for the best player in baseball?

So, to answer your question, St. Louis' offer probably needs to start at 8 years, $280 million. And considering they're already paying Matt Holliday too much (because of all those non-existent other teams that were bidding against the Cardinals in the offseason), either they're going to give him that money and be financially handcuffed for the foreseeable future, or they're going to let him walk and lose the best player in baseball.

Maybe Ruben Amaro is a secret genius.

4 - I would pay to subscribe to a Fake Baby Beef Twitter account.

RPT: Greg needs to chill out. Billy Bob from Varsity Blues would have been a value pick at 24.

Bill C.: Priority list:  1) you give Mrs. Bill C. access to the Fake Mrs. Bill C twitter account, THEN 2) you pay to subscribe to Fake Baby Beef twitter account.

ZouDave: Baby Beef

Doug: Who does he have to pay?  I could use some cash.

RPT: Anyone else looking forward to the Google hits that result from the phrase "Fake Baby Beef," because I know I sure am.

Doug: Note to Atch: do not Google image the phrase "Fake Beef Baby."

ZouDave: First image on Page 2 of that search:

RPT: Somebody please photoshop Beef over the King's face.

(TWO AND A HALF HOURS LATER...)

RPT: Get your umbrellas before this thing is published, men. Our readership is not going to be happy with this effort.

ghtd36: So when does Jason Horton join The Rafters?

RPT: He's probably lucky we haven't started The Basement.

Yet.

ghtd36: Last night, on the way out of the American Airlines Center, I was recounting probably my greatest Rec Center moment: knocking down a pullup J over Glen Dandridge.

So, yeah, my athletic career kinda sucks.

Comment 42 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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It's almost hypnotic.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 28, 2010 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

Somehow, the link didn't transfer to the page.

But if you really want to know who the Player X is that is better than Ryan Howard is against lefties, click here.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 28, 2010 4:36 PM CDT reply actions  

Jason Kendell dosn't get paid for OPS

he get’s paid for his super amazing mentoring skillz!

/looks over Meches’, Greinkes’ and Blowpens ERAs……….shoots self

How does one make a big freaken message by the way?

- .... .- - .----. ... / .-- .... .- - / ... .... . / ... .- .. -..

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Apr 28, 2010 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I know this sounds like another person whos dentists brothers uncles...

But my Best friends girlfriend used to babysit for Pujols, and I can tell you that he will NOT be taking one year deals. He loves to be around his kids all year, so they will move where he is. And he has a daughter with down syndrome so NO way will he be forcing her to move every year. He loves her doctor who is here in St. Louis, so I would guess he would take a considerable amount less to stay here.

Annoying You Since 1986

by MUTIGERS86 on Apr 28, 2010 4:37 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm not saying he WILL take one-year deals...

…but I am saying that it would likely be the most lucrative (although least secure) route for him to take.

And honestly, if Albert Pujols takes any less than $30 million a year, he’s a moron. I mean that: him leaving money on the table to stay in STL, when his contract is almost definitely going to financially cripple the franchise anyway, is like a dog chasing his tail. You’re already going to hurt the franchise if you stick around, Albert: at least get what you’re worth.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 28, 2010 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

I disagree.

If his salary was going to cripple the franchise, no way would they have given Holliday the money they did.

Annoying You Since 1986

by MUTIGERS86 on Apr 28, 2010 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Just expect the cost of a nosebleed ticket in St. Louis

to be up in the area of $150 come 2020….

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Apr 28, 2010 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

You've got a lot more faith in John Mozeliak than I do.

Let’s take a conservative estimate and say that the Cards exercise Albert Pujols’ option for 2011 (duh) and around the All-Star Break 2011, he takes a reasonable hometown discount, signing for 8 years, $225 million (a little over $28mil a year).

That means that from 2012 through 2016 (and, potentially, 2017 depending on Holliday’s option), the Cards would be paying $45 million to two players: Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Now, those are two very, very good players; not much doubt about that.

The problem is, the Cards have never had a payroll above $99 million. Even if you give that payroll a marginal boost (say, $110 million) that means that you’re paying 23 players — including an entire pitching staff — a combined $65 million. That just doesn’t bode well.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 28, 2010 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Do you remember McGwire's contract?

Yes. Pujols should and will get a contract worth much much much (infinity) more than McGwire, but his contract was spread out so that even when he retired, he was still getting paid. There is no way the people of St. Louis will let Albert leave, and if Mozeliak does, he will be promptly fired. Seriously, they will work something out. If not, Mo will be out of a job.

by TheHamburglar on Apr 28, 2010 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not all franchises identify potentially crippling contracts

…and stay away from them.

- .... .- - .----. ... / .-- .... .- - / ... .... . / ... .- .. -..

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Apr 28, 2010 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Keep in mind, that is only 16 million more per year for albert.

Which means they are currently paying 71 million for the other 23 players. It’s not a stretch to take 6 million out of that.

Annoying You Since 1986

by MUTIGERS86 on Apr 28, 2010 5:08 PM CDT reply actions  

Actually its only 13 million more per year.

The other 23 players on the current roster are only paid 68 million. And I wouldn’t say the team is crippled. They will be fine.

Annoying You Since 1986

by MUTIGERS86 on Apr 28, 2010 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

And when Carpenter's contract is up in 2012?

When Ludwick needs to be paid?
When Wainwright’s contract is up in 2013?
When Molina’s contract is up in 2012?
When Colby Rasmus is arbitration eligible?

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 28, 2010 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

A few years ago you would have asked the same thing

About Edmonds, Rolen, etc. There will always be new players coming in and others going. But the Cardinals over the past 30 years have shown the ability to find these new players. I’m not saying it will be easy, but to say it will cripple the franchise is an over exaggeration in my opinion.

Annoying You Since 1986

by MUTIGERS86 on Apr 28, 2010 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

the baby beef pic

TOTALLY SAVED this roundtable

hmmmmmmmm……………….veal. Tasty tasty murder.

- .... .- - .----. ... / .-- .... .- - / ... .... . / ... .- .. -..

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Apr 28, 2010 6:23 PM CDT reply actions  

ghtd

As a fellow DFW-er, I must ask. Why no love for the Cowboys?

"I'm pretty sure there's more to life than being really, really, ridiculously good looking. And I plan on finding out what that is."

by CEW on Apr 28, 2010 7:20 PM CDT reply actions  

I don't know.

I think it stems from being surrounded by Cowboys fans for most of my formative years, and Cowboys fans are among the least realistic, most rah-rah we’re the best and your team sucks fans around. Never enjoyed that.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 28, 2010 11:43 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

pujols aside

greg, you’ve got to tell me you’re sold on the cardinals now. let’s end this silly argument.

by stlcardinalsfang on Apr 28, 2010 10:52 PM CDT reply actions  

Sold on them how?

That they’re going to run away with a terrible division? Been saying that for about a month.

I don’t think they are the best team in the NL, but they’re in the conversation.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 28, 2010 11:44 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

you were down on their pitching staff before the year started

and for that matter their non-pujols, non-holliday offense too.

are you convinced of either?

by stlcardinalsfang on Apr 28, 2010 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Because Holliday has been a strength so far

To be fair, he’s usually a second half player though

by Boots 58 on Apr 29, 2010 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

Well, who am I supposed to be impressed with?

Rasmus and Ludwick have been solid if unspectacular. Brendan Ryan has been awful. Freese and Schumaker have been relatively spare. Yadier Molina has not been good this year. Felipe Lopez is shaping up to be a good signing, but he is what he is: a fourth infielder.

As for the pitching, both Wainwright and Garcia’s success is (I suspect) largely a product of an extremely low BABIP (.221 for Garcia, .228 for Wainwright). I’m confident that Wainwright can maintain a mid-3s ERA, but that BABIP is going to catch up to Garcia. Penny’s been impressive to be sure, but I remain skeptical of any pitcher on the wrong side of 30 (and Penny turns 33 in a couple weeks) with a history of injury. Carpenter’s Carpenter, and Lohse is a LOL factory.

And everything comes with a Small Sample Size disclaimer. So, no, I’m not convinced of either.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 29, 2010 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

oh brother

sorry for completely ripping apart your post, but i have no other option.

Rasmus and Ludwick have been solid if unspectacular

colby rasmus is SECOND IN THE LEAGUE IN WAR. i’m sorry, but that’s spectacular. end of story. his BABIP is .394 to go along with a 15.4 ld rate and 31.6% HR/FB rate so yes, he will regress but to say he’s been unspectacular is simply ignorant.

ludwick has been worth 0.7 WAR so far this year and is OPS’ing over 1 since his move to the 2 hole. his ld BABIP is is .345 to go along with a HR/FB rate of 13.8%, so it’s absolutely sustainable. at this rate, he’ll be worth 5.4 WAR at the end of the year. which is absolutely solid and right on par with 2008 numbers.

Freese and Schumaker have been relatively spare

freese is hitting .295 while playing averageish defense at third. he’s doing exactly what we brought him here for.

schumaker has had TERRIBLE luck. he’s hitting .221 with a BABIP of .246 while having a ld rate of 31.3%. THIRTY ONE POINT THREE percent. i think he’s going to have a bit better luck. he’s been a .300 hitter before, and he’ll be a .300 hitter again by year’s end as soon as he stops hitting it right at people.

Yadier Molina has not been good this year

while this is semi-true, his BABIP is .246 (career average: .280) with a line drive rate of 22.2%. i think he’s also had some bad luck, and is average is bound to go up. all while being the best defensive catcher in baseball, so he’ll rebound.

Felipe Lopez is shaping up to be a good signing, but he is what he is: a fourth infielder.

truth, but he’s the best 4th infielder in baseball.

Brendan Ryan has been awful

i can’t argue with this, but he is the 8th place hitter and is spectacular defensively, so we don’t look to garner much from him offensively.

point is, the cardinals have four hitters that are on pace to be 5+ WAR this season and another that is going to be hitting right around .300 at year’s end. put that together with a couple .260ish hitters, and that’s a damn good offense.

As for the pitching, both Wainwright and Garcia’s success is (I suspect) largely a product of an extremely low BABIP (.221 for Garcia, .228 for
Wainwright).

i can’t really speak for garcia, but wainwright has done this before. his stats should regress to the mean, yes, but he’s a damn fine pitcher.

Penny’s been impressive to be sure, but I remain skeptical of any pitcher on the wrong side of 30 (and Penny turns 33 in a couple weeks) with a history of injury

so you think he might get hurt or something? i can live with that.

Lohse is a LOL factory

contract aside (which yes, sucks), lohse has become de facto #5. he’s rocking a nice a 6.55 ERA but his FIP is only 3.70. i’m not trying to make an argument that he’s good or anything, but he’s a hell of a lot better than a lot of teams #5 guy.

again, SSS disclaimer as well, but some statements you made were flat out wrong and had to be addressed.

by stlcardinalsfang on Apr 29, 2010 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

You're right.

This IS what we intended to get out of the Roundtable.

by RPT on Apr 29, 2010 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

Haha...

Just giving you a hard time, because I sure as hell didn’t have anything to add to this conversation.

by RPT on Apr 29, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'll enjoy the past time from time to time.

But NOWHERE near informed enough to get in a conversation with real “baseball people,” which decent amount of Cards fans seem to be.

Plus, alienating Cards fans on a Mizzou blog is a horrible idea.

by RPT on Apr 29, 2010 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

My point was not to rip Rasmus and Ludwick.

They’ve been good. My “solid if unspectacular” comment was aimed at the fact that they’re hitting well — consistently well — but not necessarily getting a lot of buzz. Doing extraordinary things very ordinarily, if that makes sense.

Freese is a perfect example of an empty average. 18 strikeouts in 18 games, and an OPS on par with Kyle Blanks. Unless he’s playing defense like Elvis Andrus (and there are no good defensive statistics, especially with this small of a sample, but he’s -23.8 in UZR/150), he’s hurting the team.

Schumaker’s numbers aren’t going to stay this bad, but he’s also striking out ~15% of the time.

Brendan Ryan is an offensive liability. I don’t care how good he is with the glove (and he’s…good…not great); he’s hurting the team.

Didn’t say anything bad about Wainwright, but Garcia’s not going to sustain this.

And yes, I’m saying that Penny is likely to get hurt. And no, Kyle Lohse is not a hell of a lot better than a lot of teams’ No. 5s. He’s one of the worst pitchers in the league right now. A 0.76 K/BB ratio isn’t a hell of a lot better than a whole lot of AA lifers.

I’m not saying that they’re not going to run away with the division; they are. But I’m not sold on the Cardinals’ offense or pitching being elite.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 29, 2010 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

we'll agree to disagree on the specifics

but even you can say they’re on a crash course to an nlcs showdown with the phillies, right?

by stlcardinalsfang on Apr 29, 2010 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

Probably.

Though I’ll say this: if I’m a Cardinals fan, I’m praying that I avoid the Rockies in the NLDS.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 29, 2010 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah...

…that’ll happen when you come up with five men on.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Apr 29, 2010 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Rasmus has been the best hitter in the majors this year so far

That doesn’t mean he’ll keep it up (BABIP alert!), but he’s been an utter STUD so far even in the underlying stats. Unspectacular doesn’t describe in any way how good he has been. He’d be on pace for 46 bombs and 130 walks if he miraculously kept up this pace.

As for Garcia, he’s obviously not this good no. But I think his potential has really been undersold after actually seeing his post-TJ stuff (not results). He basically has the same stuff as a younger Pettitte, 88-93 with sink, a slider/cutter that’s effective against both LH/RH, a big curveball and a changeup. He commands 4 at least average pitches from the left side and definitely seems to have a great mound presence for what it’s worth, I see no reason why his ceiling isn’t a championship caliber #2 starter. The great thing about it is that we don’t even need him to be that guy just yet and actually don’t want him to be innings wise.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Apr 29, 2010 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

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