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Around SBN: What If This Is It For The Celtics? End Of An Era Looming

#Rangers sign 14th round RHP Nick Tepesch, out of University of Missouri.

Per Rangers blogger Jamey Newberg. Hooray!

almost 2 years ago Untitled_tiny ghtd36 24 comments 0 recs  | 

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DAMN.

Not gonna lie. Was hoping he’d come back. Didn’t expect it a month ago, but I was beginning to believe it was going to happen.

by Bill C. on Aug 15, 2010 12:20 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm sad for Mizzou, happy for Nick.

I’m not real sure that coming back for another year would cause his stock to rise precipitously, and 14th rounders still made decent money. Beyond that, speaking from a position of bias, the Rangers have started to show that they can develop minor league pitching, which would bode well for Nick, as a lot of things I’m reading say that his delivery needs almost an entire overhaul.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Aug 15, 2010 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wow.It was in his best interest to sign.

But I didn’t think the Rangers had any sort of intention of dishing out more cash. Already thrown a lot of cash at their top picks (waaaaaaaay over slot).

Now the Cards need to sign Austin Wilson and Zack Cox. Could take it or leave it on Swags.

Former Mizzourah.net asshat

by Big Head on Aug 15, 2010 12:36 PM CDT reply actions  

New owners, dawg.

GET MONEY.

"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010

by ghtd36 on Aug 15, 2010 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

And inherit $200m+ in debt.

Not that Tepesch’s deal is a breaking point.

Former Mizzourah.net asshat

by Big Head on Aug 15, 2010 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Tom Hicks?

Putting a team deep in to debt? Where have I heard this before?

by CPC on Aug 15, 2010 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Via Keith Law

Twitter

Looks like several folks reported this already – Texas signed RHP Nick Tepesch for $400K. Had first-round potential, never had performance.

Not even sure how to take that. KLaw is kind of a dick anyway, so it’s not surprising.

Former Mizzourah.net asshat

by Big Head on Aug 15, 2010 2:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Well...

…he never did perform like the first-rounder he was projected to be a couple of years ago. He turned into a good pitcher, but not a Scherzer-Gibson-Crow level good pitcher.

by Bill C. on Aug 15, 2010 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Tepesch was never a definite 1st round prospect.

Via Jim Callis (Baseball ’mericah)

Baseball America’s Jim Callis provides a scouting report saying Tepesch features a 90-94mph fastball and would’ve gone in the first three rounds out of high school had it not been for his signing demands.

His $400k is over the MLB slot recommendation, so he did well. He was picked in like the 27th round a few years ago (out of HS) by the BoSawx. Sure his signability cost him as far as the slot he was selected in, but I’d guess he was offered right around the same cash, maybe more, by the Sox. Just look at AJ Cole, the Nats 4th rounder. Took $2m today IN THE SAME ROUND AS TEPESCH. Their 12th rounder just signed for $799k. Nick was just running out of options, so taking the same or possibly even a little less cash than ’07 was a good move for him.

Passing up that amount of cash again could be a mistake, even if he was taken in the 2nd or 3rd round next year when he’s totally out of options. He wasn’t going to be a 1st rounder next year. If I’m guessing the MLB slot recommendation correctly, Nick signed for late 2nd round to 3rd round money. I just had my doubts the Rangers wanted to sign him, especially going over slot to get him.

Former Mizzourah.net asshat

by Big Head on Aug 15, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Back when Crow was tearing things up...

…somebody wrote a “Missouri could have the top pitcher taken in the draft for three straight years — Crow, Gibson, Tepesch!” article. I think it was at Baseball America, but I can’t remember for sure. It was obviously a best-case scenario observation, but he was absolutely thought of as a potential (not definite) first-rounder.

by Bill C. on Aug 15, 2010 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

I saw Tep starting to put things together this year, though.

I’m a huge stats guy, but the biggest thing I saw from Tep was that he became mentally tough on the mound. One run didn’t snowball into three or four, it stayed as one isolated run most of the time. On top of that, his command was much-improved.

He’s got a frame that can add on some bulk and just needs to work a little more on his changeup. Texas got a fantastic 14th-round pick—even if he doesn’t pan out, getting a guy with his potential that late is pretty solid.

Chicago White Sox Examiner — Big hat, no cattle

by UribeAuction on Aug 15, 2010 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

I didn't pay close enough attention

but would you say he lacked run support? Is that part of the reason his numbers aren’t as impressive?

by CPC on Aug 15, 2010 10:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

A lack of run support wouldn't have anything to do with his meaningful numbers not being impressive.

His 75/27 K/BB ratio could’ve been better (in the strikeout department), but he got a good amount of ground balls and limited his home runs. I couldn’t give less than a crap about his 6-6 record. That means absolutely f***ing nothing for his future performance.

Chicago White Sox Examiner — Big hat, no cattle

by UribeAuction on Aug 15, 2010 11:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

And sorry, LHJK.

That just hit kind of a nerve. Like people who cite batting average as a primary offensive statistic. Or fielding percentage.

Chicago White Sox Examiner — Big hat, no cattle

by UribeAuction on Aug 15, 2010 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Absolutely. He is a solid 4th round pick, and (surprisingly) the Rangers were again willing to pay for it.

And of all the organizations a pitcher could go to, the Rangers are easily top three (Rays, Braves). Very good situation for Tepesch.

Former Mizzourah.net asshat

by Big Head on Aug 15, 2010 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Even being a Mizzou homer...

You’ve got to admit, Tepesch did stall out from his HS form. If BA had him slated as a possible 1st rounder as a HS’er (when Crow/Gibby were wrecking the B12) and the MLB drafting purely on potential, it can’t be great to throw some of the stats he had over the past couple of seasons. To put it bluntly, he wasn’t a 1st round talent.

The good thing about Nick is he throws A LOT of strikes. He does have staff leadership ability too, and his K’s per inning are pretty good.

The bad things are things he could control; WHIP isn’t great, his walkrate is ok (just sub-3 a game), and a lot of his allowed baserunners score (about 50%). Take out his two CG’s, and I’m not overly impressed with a six inning average start. By comparing B12 college baseball to where it would rank within the MLB farm system, at best, it’s Hi-A ball, but I’m leaning towards Mid-A if there was a better comparison. Getting hit around like that isn’t great. Sure, some of the hits could be due to the PING!, but he’s basically going against the best of the best in pro ball.

I guess what I’m trying to say is, yes, in ‘07 out of HS, Nick Tepesch may have been a borderline 1st round talent. Three years later, he hasn’t improved as much as you could hope…just look at the paragraph above; those are his doing. The good thing for Nick is he’s going to a good organization that can develop him, and hopefully get his secondary pitches a little more cut. The Rangers saw enough in him to pay above slot money for him.

Former Mizzourah.net asshat

by Big Head on Aug 15, 2010 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree with most of this.

But again, Tep improved as the year went on, which is encouraging. You’re right, he’s not at the level some hoped when he was coming out of HS, but he’s at a level where he’s at least an intriguing prospect.

A few other things: A 2.46 BB/9 is by no means just okay, that’s pretty solid. That’s better than first-round picks like Alex Wimmers and Barret Loux.

Also, a pitcher can’t completely control his WHIP, as the H in there is somewhat dependent on the defense behind him. Tep had a .361 BABIP, which indicates that not all of the hits he allowed were necessarily his fault.

Some of that could have been bad luck (i.e. the general randomness associated with the game), and some of that could have been due to balls being scored as hits that should’ve been errors, and some of that could have been due to fielders not reaching balls they shoud’ve and seeing them fall in for hits (Mizzou had a pretty good defense, especially in the outfield, though).

Also, in general, a LOB % of around 50 percent isn’t sustainable. If Tep really is a good pitcher, he won’t strand runners at a 50 percent rate—that’ll climb into the high 60 to low 70 percent range. And, as a result, Tep’s ERA will go down, just as it will with a little BABIP regression.

But, in general, you’re right on with your assessment.

Chicago White Sox Examiner — Big hat, no cattle

by UribeAuction on Aug 15, 2010 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ugh @ Loux and Wimmers reference

I’ll be pissed if the D’backs don’t sign Loux. Treated him shitty so far. You knew his deal before drafting him, and he has thrown well since. I hate conspiracy theories, but wonder if there is something there. Arizona is going to offer him a strange deal IF THEY OFFER.

Got to see Wimmers in action early this season. Less than impressed to say it kindly.

Former Mizzourah.net asshat

by Big Head on Aug 16, 2010 1:26 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

I think he was one of the reasons Byrnes was fired.

The whole thing reeks of something odd, yeah. And Wimmers may not look impressive, but he’s in the right organization. The Twins always seem to turn the unimpressive into the Kevin Slowey type, which isn’t bad.

(And when they have talent, like Kyle Gibson, they get a whole lot out of them.)

Chicago White Sox Examiner — Big hat, no cattle

by UribeAuction on Aug 16, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

How much did that pain you to say, Sox fan?
The Twins always seem to turn the unimpressive into the Kevin Slowey type, which isn’t bad.

Guys that can pitch no-hitters and get injured? :)

Of course, I have to watch the Cubs AA squad here, and we usually go to a few games a month, so I end up rooting for them…til the Bigs. Guess I could drive to Johnson City for some Cards Appy League ball.

Former Mizzourah.net asshat

by Big Head on Aug 16, 2010 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

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