Mizzou a No. 3 seed in latest Bracketology
Other tidbits from Joe Lunardi's Cavalcade of Whimsy and Terror:
-Mizzou's up from a No. 5 seed in last month's iteration. Somebody's been doin' some impressin'.
-Playing in Tulsa would be fun...right? Ri-right?
-Missouri's inevitable path to destiny™ (ahem): Vermont, UNLV, Connecticut, Ohio State, Kansas, Duke. Mmm, that's some tasty potential vengeance.
-Illinois' a 4, Old Dominion's an 11 and Georgetown's a 3.
-Six bids for both the Big 10 and Big XII, and a whopping TEN BIDS for the Big East, including three of the top eight seeds.
over 1 year ago
ghtd36
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Ten for the Big East...
…as always, we start with an obscene number, then watch it shrink when teams in the conference actually begin playing each other and somebody finishes 6-12. Very doubtful they get more than 7 when all is said and done.
That said...
…the conference is stacked (as always) this year. Eight in KenPom’s top 30, and ten in his top 40.
"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010
The only thing that might help them is the lack of quality non bcs teams with at large potential..
Currently there are only 9 of those teams currently seeded high enough to get an at large. With 6 to 7 of those teams likely winning their conference, there is a good chance that this year only 2-4 non bcs teams get an at large bid.
Annoying You Since 1986
Also wanted to point out that on S-Curve rankings...
Georgetown is 9
Missouri is 11
Illinois is 16
Vanderbilt is 19
Old Dominion is 43
Annoying You Since 1986
Could you imagine the atmosphere of a Mizzou-kU
Final Four game. But I really do like that draw if this were to be the actual seeding. Which I know it wont be.
Great moments are born from great opportunity.
Follow me on Twitter @muwxman
I know Uconn is probably the weakest two seed in that bracket...
But I want nothing to do with Kemba Walker ever again.
Annoying You Since 1986
I harbor an admittedly unfair and overblown grudge against Kemba Walker.
"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010
Co-signed
I could score 30 a game if my layups started at the arc.
"I'm a genius, but I'm a misunderstood genius."
"What's misunderstood about you?"
"Nobody thinks I'm a genius."
by Transmogrified Tiger on Jan 3, 2011 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
I thought about making a new fanshot...
But this will suffice. Our favorite rater Ken Pom simulated the big 12 season 10,000 times based on his current ratings, and here is how many times each team got the #1 seed in the conference tourney:
Kansas 8352
Texas 554
Baylor 416
Missouri 342
Kansas St. 53
Nebraska 24
Iowa St. 14
Oklahoma St. 5
So Missouri has a roughly 3.4% chance to win the conference regular season title. Thoughts?
Annoying You Since 1986
Uh...
I think you are a bit confused. 3.4%, not 34%. And the Mitchell thing isn’t happening.
Annoying You Since 1986
I didn't get the sarcasm when you said just a wee bit higher.
But yes, 35% is way too high. The top 7 teams are clearly Kansas, Missouri, K St, Texas, Tex A&m, Baylor, and Okie St in some order. Mizzou plays 3 home games and 5 road games against those teams. Easily the toughest conference schedule of any team in the big 12. At best, I would say missouri has a 1/5 shot of winning the conference.
Annoying You Since 1986
I think we will win 2 or 3 of those 5 road games though
They have improved a ton since the beginning of the season
Thats possible.
But if you gave me the field at 65% or Missouri at 35%, I would take the house. And I’m not sure any realistic Missouri fan wouldn’t do the same.
Annoying You Since 1986
I want it noted for the record . . .
. . . that I had already written about this for tomorrow’s Hoop M Nation before reading this comment.
But my thought looking at this (and the other projections) is that I’m surprised at how often one team completely dominates his conference simulations. I’m also surprised that A&M didn’t win once in 10,000 tries, while Nebraska and Iowa State combined to win 38. And if A&M doesn’t win once, no way Baylor wins 416 times.
by Michael Atchison on Jan 3, 2011 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
When teams in his rankings are good..
He expects them to be really good. For instance, Kansas most difficult game according to him is at Missouri, and he still has them winning that game 2/3 of the time.
Annoying You Since 1986
And to elaborate, he is pretty good. The values on the left were his predicted odds of winning...
And the number on the right shows how many times that team actually won. Pretty impressive and hard to argue.
Prediction W-L Pct
50-55% 38-32 .543
56-60% 34-29 .540
61-65% 38-28 .576
66-70% 56-24 .700
71-75% 50-24 .676
76-80% 51-13 .797
81-85% 67-17 .798
86-90% 67-19 .779
91-95% 130-5 .963
96+% 194-5 .975
Annoying You Since 1986
And I looked at his site..
ANd he omitted A&M originally. They actually won it 240 times.
Annoying You Since 1986
I really don't understand why KenPom loves Baylor so much
and not even here. How is that team #24 in his rankings?
"I'm a genius, but I'm a misunderstood genius."
"What's misunderstood about you?"
"Nobody thinks I'm a genius."
by Transmogrified Tiger on Jan 3, 2011 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
Baylor is rated at the 8th best defense in the country
And it seems that in his rankings a better defense trumps a better offense.
Maryland is ranked 23rd with the 6th best defense and 63rd best offense, while Baylor has the 56th best offense and 8th in defense.
They are weighted equally.
You are just looking at the rankings, not the actual numbers. Maryland is 1.1 better on D, but only .9 worse on offense. Thus they are a little ahead. As for Baylor, they are rated high because they have destroyed almost all the teams they have beaten. And all of their losses are away from home and by pretty close margins.
Annoying You Since 1986
KenPom
Wish you could go on there and look at data from a certain day forward.
I would like to see how we rate from the Vanderbilt game til now against the rest of the country in the same time frame.
I think it’s pretty well known around here that it took time getting the pieces into place and guys understanding how everything worked.
by Team on Jan 3, 2011 2:21 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
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