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Around SBN: What If This Is It For The Celtics? End Of An Era Looming

So How's James Franklin Doing?

Photo via Bill Carter.

Subtitle: THE JAMES FRANKLIN EXPERIMENT IS A FAILURE. BRING ON MATY MAUK OR CORBIN BERKSTRESSER OR SOME RANDOM OTHER QUARTERBACK OFF THE STREET WHO IS CLEARLY BETTER THAN JAMES FRANKLIN.

(Full "Links And Reflections" post is forthcoming, but this section of that post got rather long, and I decided I wanted it to stand alone.)

-----

On October 12, 2002, in his sixth game as Missouri starter, Brad Smith completed just 14 of 29 passes for 123 yards and rushed for just 34 yards in a 24-13 loss to a Nebraska team that would finish just 7-7.

On October 28, 2006, in his ninth game as Missouri starter, Chase Daniel completed 23 of 44 passes and was picked off three times in a 26-10 loss to an Oklahoma team that would win the Big 12 but finish just 11th in the country.

On October 17, 2009, in his sixth game as Missouri starter, Blaine Gabbert completed 22 of 44 passes and was picked off three times in a 33-17 loss to a banged up Oklahoma State team that would finish unranked.

October is hard on first-year starters, especially in an excellent conference. James Franklin's completion percentage hovered around 50 percent yesterday, just like those in the examples above. He threw three picks, just like Daniel and Gabbert above. And he did this against a defense better than those of 2002 Nebraska and 2009 Oklahoma State (OSU did, granted, have the advantage of facing a gimpy Gabbert) and at least rather comparable to 2006 Oklahoma's. Oklahoma State's is an active, opportunistic defense, and they did to Franklin what they've done to everybody else this year. And they got a little lucky, too. Let's just say that it's rare for one defensive end (Jamie Blatnick) to not only bat down two passes, but have both of them deflect to another defensive end for an interception. Most of the time, they fall harmlessly to the turf.

Am I a bit dismayed by some of Franklin's mistakes? Of course. He still makes screw-ups in clusters, he still occasionally fails to put enough oomph on some passes (I'm pretty sure we can adequately conclude that his arm strength is not even to par with that of Chase Daniel), then airmails others, and he still fails to show urgency at certain times. But here's the deal: I have always held a firm belief that whatever creates a person's most positive traits also create their worst.

The things that might (might) make James Franklin great one day -- poise, comfort in the pocket, run-pass ability -- are sometimes tripping him up now. Instead of looking poised, he looks indecisive at times. Instead of having a good, comfortable feel for what he is and isn't, he looks like he lacks improvisational skills and/or doesn't quite realize how much juice a certain throw needs (or how to maneuver in the pocket so his passes are less likely to get batted down). Instead of rolling out and waiting as long as possible to commit to running or throwing (a la Russell Wilson), he leaves the pocket and commits to running without keeping his eyes downfield (he missed a wide open Michael Egnew deep downfield on one particular run yesterday). He also, as he did yesterday, tends to sometimes be passive with his runs, content to follow blockers a little too long without making an assertive move.

We have no idea if things are going to "click" for Franklin the way they have with Missouri's last three starting quarterbacks, but we do know two things:

1) Each of the last three quarterbacks experienced some serious glitches in October of their first year as starter.

2) Even with the glitches, here's how Franklin's stat line projects over a full, 13-game season (and no, there are no guarantees right now that we're looking at 13 games instead of 12):

241-for-401 (60%), 3,105 yards (7.7 per pass), 20 TD, 13 INT; 825 rushing yards, 13 TD

And here are the first-year averages for Smith, Daniel and Gabbert:

248-for-421 (59%) passing, 3,151 yards (7.5 per pass), 22 TD, 8 INT; 537 rushing yards, 5 TD

Does Franklin need to improve? Absolutely. Is he drastically far behind the curve? Absolutely not. In fact, he is almost disturbingly on the curve in areas other than interceptions (worse) and rushing (better).

Links:

The Trib: MU quarterback learns the hard way that turnovers aren’t tolerable
Post-Dispatch: Pinkel defends Franklin
KC Star: Franklin suffers more growing pains in Mizzou’s loss to Oklahoma State
Daily Oklahoman: Cowboy defense believing in 'a little magic'

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Comments

Display:

I am firm in my belief

that this team is going to be pretty good next year and a total bear in 2013 when Josey and Franklin are seniors (of course, barring injury). And DGB wouldn’t hurt a bit.

"When among evil companions, try to fit in." - Wild Bill Donovan

by Kpz1234 on Oct 23, 2011 11:56 AM CDT reply actions  

DGB and Mauk...

…if I’m not mistaken, I believe I heard that they were each on pace to break national career yardage records at their respective positions. DGB would be an absolutely incredible get. (Mizzou’s chances seem to oscillate between “no way” and “pretty good” depending on the week, but it cannot hurt that he visited unofficially last week, then called Mauk on his drive home.)

by Bill C. on Oct 23, 2011 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

OK, have you bugged Mauk's phone?

Or DGB? Is SB Nation a front for the Company? Am I going to disappear now?

What do you mean I can't retire at 32?

by Ausgiano on Oct 23, 2011 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Actually

Now that he has a full time job with SBNation, Bill is now legally able to bug anyone’s phone without a warrant. It’s in the Patriot Act. He is also no longer obligated to wear pants in public, as he is immune to prosecution for indecent exposure.

by Damnatio Memoriae on Oct 23, 2011 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

"Patriot Act"

“I LOVE IT I LOVE IT I LOVE IT.”

RockMNation.com (@rockmnation)
Fighting mob mentality since 2007

by RPT on Oct 23, 2011 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

It is my belief

that Franklin’s issue is his footwork in the pocket. I think too many times he does not step into his throws. When he does, it’s a strong, straight throw. But other he sails them, and you get the third interception. Granted, he does get happy feet, but that will come with time and age. I don’t know if his ceiling is as high as our past QB’s, but there’s a lot to be excited about in the future.

Also, want to say thanks to Beef and the Tailgate Queen for letting me come and hang yesterday morning. Bill C is taller than I thought. And Bill Carter’s idea could get some legs.

What do you mean I can't retire at 32?

by Ausgiano on Oct 23, 2011 12:12 PM CDT reply actions  

great historical stats

I wonder if it is the proverbial ‘game hasn’t slowed down yet’ transition that gets everybody about this point. I wonder if their brains at times just get overloaded- they don’t process where a safety is, whether there is a good enough throwing lane to make a pass, don’t concentrate on their footwork when making a throw.

He will be fine- I think his ceiling is plenty high. And I also think it is two way learning process- Yost and GP are also learning how to best take advantage of what he can do.

by tigertiger on Oct 23, 2011 12:19 PM CDT reply actions  

Generally...

…I tend to think that opponents catch on to a player’s tendencies after a few starts and adjust accordingly. Good players then have to adjust to the adjustments. That’s an extreme generalization, but it’s always rang true to me.

by Bill C. on Oct 23, 2011 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

I feel like he is playing against tougher competition

than say Gabbert was in 2009 or Daniel in 2006

According to an anonymous source...

by Tigers26 on Oct 23, 2011 12:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Absolutely.

Through eight games, Brad Smith had faced one ranked opponent, Chase Daniel had faced ZERO and Blaine Gabbert had faced three. Franklin will face his FIFTH next week.

by Bill C. on Oct 23, 2011 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

The schedule is part of the equation in these comparisons.

Not making excuses but Brad, Chase and Blaine faced many more cupcakes at this point of their collegic careers. Yes, there are many mistakes being made but so are the ones being made collectively as a team.

by McZou on Oct 23, 2011 12:29 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

(I took too long in sending this, point ^ was just made)

by McZou on Oct 23, 2011 12:31 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Ummm...quick prediction.

Mizzou to SEC East. Stadium expansion to 84,000. Announcement tomorrow.

I think we'll reconcile it by winning!
-Kim English

by Jack618 on Oct 23, 2011 12:30 PM CDT reply actions  

No way in hell do we announce an immediate expansion.

That would be incredibly ill-timed. Even if a move would all but guarantee eventual expansion, I would still think we need to prove we can hit 70K regularly before we go to 80K, no?

by Bill C. on Oct 23, 2011 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Question Bill

How much do you think going to the SEC would help our attendance?

According to an anonymous source...

by Tigers26 on Oct 23, 2011 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

A solid amount, I would think.

I have to figure there would be a bump in season ticket sales, and obviously opponents like Tennessee would travel better than OSU did yesterday (which, by the way, was absolutely pathetic for a Top 5 team).

by Bill C. on Oct 23, 2011 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe Pickens is going to buy all the tickets and give them away to Okies.

They could fill the seats that way.

"When among evil companions, try to fit in." - Wild Bill Donovan

by Kpz1234 on Oct 23, 2011 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

This is kinda a chicken and egg thing

Going to SEC may bring in more visitors, and boost home attendance. Some may say just going to SEC is going to create demand, so need to start expanding. Others say need to lose supply of seats, then expand. I go with the latter. Prove that sellouts are consistent, visitors are starting to take over the Hill, then use that information to go to the donors and get the lettuce to expand.

Reality, look at expansion to start in 3-4 years, so about 2016 for new seating.

What do you mean I can't retire at 32?

by Ausgiano on Oct 23, 2011 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Remember Gabbert vs Bowling Green in 2009?

Couldn’t have gotten much worse than that right? Or San Diego State?

According to an anonymous source...

by Tigers26 on Oct 23, 2011 12:31 PM CDT reply actions  

OK, so SEC East seems highly possible

If you had to pick the rival from the West Division, would you rather have the Arky or aTm?

Matter points out having a game in Texas (or showing in Texas) would be good for maintaining recruiting ties there. Arky makes more geographical sense (I googlemap’ed this, and it’s 5:30 from CoMo to Fayetteville).

What do you mean I can't retire at 32?

by Ausgiano on Oct 23, 2011 12:48 PM CDT reply actions  

I think people need to relax and give Franklin a break. Now, if he plays like this next year, then we have a problem and grumbling can be expected.

Always bet on Black and Gold!

by Wesley Stripes on Oct 23, 2011 1:18 PM CDT reply actions  

Hey Mr. Bill C.

What are the chances we never play kU again because of the possible move? This actually saddens me that it may end, I’m a sucker for tradition

by MizzouRugby on Oct 23, 2011 1:28 PM CDT reply actions  

I think the odds of the series ending for a little while...

…are pretty high. But I have to figure the game shows up on the schedule again in the future.

by Bill C. on Oct 23, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

If it comes to that, I hope it does too.

Do that fans want that too, or is it the administration, or both?

by MizzouRugby on Oct 23, 2011 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh I think the MU administration absolutely wants it.

And I cannot totally blame KU for (apparently) basically saying “To hell with you if you leave.”

by Bill C. on Oct 23, 2011 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Beakers need the football Border War more than we do

If Mizzou and Nubs were to set up an annual Arrowhead game, that’s clearly an upgrade over a half-empty Arrowhead because all the Kansas fans dumped their tickets on StubHub.

by Gaknar on Oct 23, 2011 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

But would you want that hard of a game in the OOC?

"When among evil companions, try to fit in." - Wild Bill Donovan

by Kpz1234 on Oct 23, 2011 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

If kU won't play

I would. Especially after our upgrade to SEC speed ha

by MizzouRugby on Oct 23, 2011 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

.

I personally don’t want the series at all. Nubs can pound sand as far as I’m concerned. But it’s not about what I want. Osbourne wants a KC game, Mizzou wants a KC game, we have a built-in rivalry, the attendance would be much better than for Border War. If Mizzou can’t handle the SEC, a loss to Nubs won’t matter much. If Mizzou can handle the SEC, a nationally relevant game against Nubs would be good for the polling regardless of the outcome. At some point, Mizzou is going to have to start playing these types of OOC games if only to get the national attention.

I don’t want the game, but it makes a lot of sense for both universities.

by Gaknar on Oct 23, 2011 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I think the SEC scheduling would matter

This year should make perfectly clear the huge downside when you load up your schedule with BCS conference opponents. I don’t want a game like Nebraska on the schedule if we’re playing a 9 game SEC slate. And honestly, I’m not sure I’d want it if the conference schedule is 8 games either. Maybe my fears are mitigated by the SEC hype machine buoying teams in rankings, but even a one game difference makes a huge difference in how the game is perceived. It’s one thing when you’re the team with the stronger program like the Illinois game, but considering the difference between Illinois and Nebraska, plus all the uncertainty with how the SEC schedule will treat us, I’d rather play a different program in Arrowhead. Like K-State.

by Transmogrified Tiger on Oct 23, 2011 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, 8 conf games vs 9 will be key to non-conf scheduling...

…if we end up playing 9 SEC teams every year, then I really cannot justify playing ANYBODY good in non-conf, you know?

by Bill C. on Oct 23, 2011 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

But at some point Mizzou has to take these risks if they ever want to be considered a top program

Oklahoma does it and it tends to pay off. An early OOC loss to a top team doesn’t hurt that badly, especially if you make it up with an SEC schedule. I know Pinkel disagrees, but I think a loss to a good team is worth far more than a blow-out win over Western Illinois. I think that if you play the best, it makes you better over the long term.

Unless you’re Ron Prince, of course.

by Gaknar on Oct 23, 2011 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

The next step for Mizzou is just a lack of total losses

They’re still quite a few years from getting the benefit of the doubt from the humans on the scale of programs like OU or even aTm. If they overturn the BCS and/or get rid of the anchor-ridden human polls, then sure, load up the schedule. Play Nebraska week 1, then go to Autzen week 2, host OU week 3, then play all 9 conference games. Attendance would go through the roof and we wouldn’t be as damaged for losses. But I don’t think the reward is quite worth the risk with the status of Mizzou’s program in the current system.

In other words, voters are always looking for a reason to thrust OU up in the polls, and therefore there’s less risk in big early games than for a school with a lesser perception.

by Transmogrified Tiger on Oct 23, 2011 8:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Teams schedule an A level team, a B level team, and a C level team.

This year, Arizona State was our A level team – a good BCS conference team.
Miami (OH) was our B level team – midmajor.
Western Illinois was our C level team.

The SEC schedule carries enough credibility by itself for some reason to not have to play a totally insane schedule like you laid out. With or without the polls, I think.

"When among evil companions, try to fit in." - Wild Bill Donovan

by Kpz1234 on Oct 24, 2011 2:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

I have a serious question regarding Franklin and the two upcoming QB's

Just how competitive will next spring and fall camp be? Assuming that Franklin continues on the good but flawed trend this year, how secure will his position be? Would it be like this year’s past camps, where it is completely open?

by MizzouRugby on Oct 23, 2011 2:52 PM CDT reply actions  

Pinkel and staff clearly love Franklin

From all they say about him, and if past behaviour is a guide I doubt there is any threat at all to his job. He starts, Berkstresser gets a few minutes here and there, Mauk redshirts, and then the mother of all battles in 2013.

by MizKC on Oct 23, 2011 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

This is basically true...

…but they will also go out of their way to mention that the competition is an open one…

by Bill C. on Oct 23, 2011 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Open competition will more than likely depend on final record

If Mizzou drops to 5-7 or worse, gotta think there will be some honest evaluations in spring ball. If Franklin shows some signs of growth and MU can spring some good victories (and a bowl win?) then Franklin should have a leg up on the others moving forward.

by octiger10 on Oct 23, 2011 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Anything as long as we don't end up like Texas.

I think all of this will go away if Franklin takes another step forward next week. I was outspoken yesterday, and I still have doubts, but I really do think he could be great. But if he doesn’t continue to progress, I hope there is an honest competition next spring and fall. Loyalty is admirable, but the better player should get the job.

by MizzouRugby on Oct 23, 2011 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

Bill C that was perfect

Thank you for putting some perspective out there on good Franklin is and how great his will be.

M-I-Z!

Fight Tigers Fight!

by digideth on Oct 24, 2011 2:15 AM CDT reply actions  

All that says is that we lost the game in part because of the QB.

FYI, I didn’t care much for BG as a QB either.
 
 But, let’s compare apples to apples. This was Franklin’s 7th game, not his 6th not his 9th. So I sort of think the information is cherry-picked to make a point and like all statistics, they’re usually skewed to make the writers point.
 
 In his 7th game in 2002, Brad Smith’s line was 20-32-0, 275 yards, and 3 TD’s in a road loss to a 9&5 Texas Tech team. FYI, that loss to NU they’re comparing was in Lincoln and yeah, NU wasn’t all that in ‘02, but who wins in Lincoln?
 
In his 7th game in 2006, Chase Daniel’s line was 21-29-0, 295 yards and 1 TD in a road loss to a 9& 4 Texas A&M team (Daniel rushed for 33 yards too).
 
In his 7th game in 2009, Blaine Gabbert’s line was 8-16-0 for 84 yards and 1 TD (Costello was 3-6-2 for 25 yards to a 13-1 Texas team (whose only loss was to Alabama in the NC title game) 2 weeks after the NU game in the monsoon where BG’s ankle was injured.
 
In his 7th game in 2011, James Franklin’s line was 14-27-3 for 184 yards and 1 TD.
 
 So, in their 7th games, Smith, Daniel, and Gabbert combined for 0 INT’s. Their combined completion rate was 63.6% (take out the injured Gabbert and Smith/Daniel completed 67.2% compared to Franklin’s 51.8%). To his credit, at this point, Franklin’s QB rating is 135.0. For their first season as starters their ratings were:
Gabberts – 140.1
Daniel’s – 145.1
Smith’s – 117.3 (recall, he also rushed for 1,029 yards)
 
 Again, is Franklin the entire problem? No. But, he is clearly NOT the level of QB our last 3 starters were at this point in his career. He does not have the arm strength to get the ball to the side lines (I think he’s EXCELLENT throwing between the hash marks and if we’d run more plays there we’d have much better success) nor does he have much touch on his passes. Some of the shorter passes he floats and I’m surprised he’s not picked off more often. Sometimes there are gaping holes that if he ‘felt’ it, he could take off running and pick up yardage. (we also get a LOT better rushing results when we run straight up the gut which we don’t do enough but that’s another rant).
 
 Losing Elvis Fisher as our starting left tackle doesn’t help at all. Travis Ruth missed time as our starting center too. Losing Will Ebner at LB doesn’t help. Having literally NO pass rush doesn’t help. Having lost Eberflus as D coordinator to the NFL and Christensen to Wyoming doesn’t help because I don’t know if Steckel and Yost can run the D/O respectively. Our offense just hasn’t clicked since Yost became the coordinator.
 
 But Franklin isn’t a game changer and maybe we’ve become conditioned to expect game changing quarterbacks? Smith and Daniel were, to me, game changers. They made our offense click whether it was with their feet or their arm’s. Gabbert could affect a game (see OU last year) but he seldom rose to grab the team and pull it to a victory. I know Chase had better receivers than we have now, but TJ and Egnew aren’t slouches. I’m mostly just afraid of how fast we can fall if things don’t get better quickly

Steve

by thedad on Oct 24, 2011 7:54 AM CDT reply actions  

Wait... our offense hasn't clicked since Yost has been coordinator?

Our offensive statistics since then say otherwise.

That is intended to be a dismissive response.

by mizzousundevil on Oct 24, 2011 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

You really think our offense has been consistent under Yost?

We had a 1st round, top ten NFL draft QB at the helm. Look at the scores across the last 2 years and see how consistent the offense was week to week. And really, you haven’t scratched your head and asked, “WTF is Yost calling that for?” a few times every game? How long has it taken him to recognize that we need to run more? 3 games? Really, he’s not an offensive genius.

Steve

by thedad on Oct 25, 2011 6:03 AM CDT reply actions  

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