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Study Hall: Missouri 84, Navy 59

Your Trifecta: Denmon-MPressey-PPressey. Your winner: nobody, though tigers-royals came awfully close.

First, some links!

MUtigers.com: No. 10 Tigers Remain Unbeaten, Down Navy 84-59
MUtigers.com: Mizzou vs. Navy Post Game Notes
MUtigers.com: Mizzou vs. Navy Post Game Quotes
The Trib: Tigers improve to 9-0 with rout of Navy
The Missourian: Andrew Jones makes debut on Missouri men's basketball team
Post-Dispatch: Tigers heed Haith warning, stay on undefeated roll
KC Star: MU routs Navy, improves to 9-0
KC Star: MU notebook: Ratliffe’s streak cools off
PowerMizzou: Tigers stay focused, rout Navy
KBIA Sports Extra: Mizzou men handle Midshipmen, move to 9-0
Fox Sports MW: Denmon helps Tigers stay unbeaten, take down Navy

---

When Mizzou takes its foot off of the accelerator, it takes its foot off of the accelerator. As was the case against Northwestern State, the Tigers rode a hot streak to a huge lead, then gave a good portion of it back. They went up 68-34 on a Phil Pressey dunk with 9:47 left, then watched as the Midshipmen went on a (futile) 24-6 run.

Now, complaining about how your team responds to a 30+ point lead is pretty much the sports blog definition of the "#firstworldproblems" Twitter hashtag. Lapses that take place when your team is up by an insurmountable amount are the ultimate in "problems you want to have," though as a fan it is at least one percent disconcerting that these players are ever capable of playing like that. Still, it's hard to wring your hands too much when your team can coast for the game's first 10-12 minutes ... and still be up 34 with ten minutes remaining in the game.

Missouri 84, Navy 59

Mizzou
Navy
Pace (No. of Possessions) 67.7
Points Per Minute 2.10 1.48
Points Per Possession (PPP) 1.24 0.87
Points Per Shot (PPS) 1.53 1.07
2-PT FG% 54.1% 50.0%
3-PT FG% 38.9% 32.0%
FT% 82.1% 41.7%
True Shooting % 62.4% 48.9%
Mizzou Navy
Assists 16 17
Steals 6 6
Turnovers 12 14
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.83 1.64
Mizzou Navy
Expected Offensive Rebounds 11 12
Offensive Rebounds 11 7
Difference +0 -5

Looks A Lot Like, Well, A Mizzou Win

Over 1.2 points per possession? Check. Fewer than 0.9 points allowed per possession? Check. True shooting percentage over 60%? Check. Win the BCI battle? Check. This game played out like a lot of Mizzou wins have this year, despite the streaks and droughts.

Well-Coached And Lacking In Talent

I'll say this for Navy: they know what they want to do. They showed solid vision and ball-handling ability, and they made quite a few nice cuts and passes ... but they just couldn't shoot or convert what they wanted to convert. I think Ed DeChellis could be a nice hire for a school like this, but he still needs to figure out a way to pull in a bit more talent than is currently there.

Star-divide

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

Player
AdjGS GmSc/Min Line
Marcus Denmon 19.3 0.58 33 Min, 22 Pts (6-14 FG, 3-7 3PT, 7-7 FT), 3 Reb, 2 Ast
Matt Pressey 13.1 0.57 23 Min, 12 Pts (4-6 FG, 1-2 3PT, 3-4 FT), 5 Reb (3 Off)
Phil Pressey 12.1 0.37 33 Min, 11 Pts (4-10 FG, 1-3 3PT, 2-2 FT), 5 Ast, 2 Reb, 2 Stl
Ricardo Ratliffe 10.4 0.37 28 Min, 14 Pts (6-9 FG, 2-2 FT), 8 Reb (3 Off), 4 TO
Kim English 9.0 0.27 33 Min, 13 Pts (3-6 FG, 2-4 3PT, 5-7 FT), 4 Reb, 3 Ast, 4 TO
Steve Moore 8.2 0.51 16 Min, 7 Pts (3-4 FG, 1-2 FT), 3 Reb
Mike Dixon 7.3 0.30 24 Min, 4 Pts (1-4 FG, 0-1 3PT, 2-2 FT), 5 Ast, 3 Reb, 3 Stl, 2 TO
Kadeem Green 1.4 0.23 6 Min, 1 Pt (0-1 FG, 1-2 FT), 3 Reb
Andy Rosburg 0.0 0.00 1 Min
Andrew Jones -0.5 -0.47 1 Min, 1 PF
Jarrett Sutton -0.8 -0.41 1 Min, 0 Pts (0-1 3PT)

It seemed liked Marcus Denmon was having a quiet half, but he's got 12 points after that 3. Tigers up 42-24.
Dec 10 via webFavoriteRetweetReply

That's what we like to call "Pulling A Marcus." He only makes himself noticeable a couple of times, and otherwise he just makes his open shots, lets the game come to him ... and ends up with 22 points. He is nearly automatic this year.

  • Weird, weird game for Ricardo Ratliffe. He was invisible for the first ten minutes, then went on an 8-1 run all by himself (expanding Mizzou's lead from six to 13), then pulled an incredible brainfart early in the second half -- he got the rebound, twirled around for the putback and was so convinced he had made it that he started running back down the court with his arm in the air; he had, in fact, missed -- then executing a perfect pick-and-roll to end Navy's 24-6 run and start one last Mizzou push to get the lead back into the 20s. In the end, however, he went 6-for-9 from the field and it was actually somewhat disappointing; that's how well he's been playing of late. (The four turnovers, on the other hand, were legitimately disappointing.)
  • Matt Pressey, king of garbage time. He missed a couple of jumpers and scored seven points over his first 20 minutes on the court, then poured in a 3-pointer and two free throws in the game's final three minutes.
  • Ten field goal attempts, Phil? And 'only' five assists? Ball hog.

    (Kidding.)
  • A quiet, mostly efficient evening for Kim English, who once again made at least 50 percent of his 3-pointers but struggled in the ball-handling department. He alone was responsible for one-third of Mizzou's turnovers.
  • I think we would all take seven points in 16 minutes from Steve Moore anytime he wants to deliver it.
Player Usage% Floor% Touches/
Poss.
%Pass %Shoot %Fouled %T/O
Denmon 26% 45% 2.8 37% 44% 18% 0%
M. Pressey 17% 58% 1.9 39% 40% 22% 0%
P. Pressey 18% 44% 3.7 70% 24% 4% 2%
Ratliffe 25% 42% 1.5 0% 61% 11% 27%
English 20% 38% 3.0 53% 18% 17% 12%
Moore 19% 50% 1.2 0% 60% 25% 15%
Dixon 14% 39% 4.5 79% 11% 4% 5%
Green 16% 22% 1.3 0% 38% 62% 0%

To the checklist!

Marcus Denmon's Usage% needs to be 23% or higher. (Yes!)
Kim English's %T/O needs to be at 10% or lower. (No.)
Kim English's Floor% should be at 35% or higher. (Yes!)
Ricardo Ratliffe's %Fouled should be at least 10%. (Yes!)
Phil Pressey's Touches/Possession need to be 3.5 or better. (Yes!)
Mike Dixon's %Pass should be 55% or higher. (Yes!)
Steve Moore's Touches/Possession should be at least 1.0. (Yes!)

Six for seven. Once again, this game played out like your typical Mizzou win, even if there were a few highs and lows.

Summary

Right now, the goal is simple: plow through Kennesaw State (on Thursday) and William & Mary (on Sunday) and head to St. Louis undefeated. It is an attainable, likely goal, and it could result in the biggest Braggin' Rights battle in quite a few years. Illinois hasn't been quite as impressive overall, but they are indeed still undefeated, and if they can survive UNLV on Saturday, the Illini and Tigers could be a combined 23-0 for Braggin' Rights. That's, uh, impressive. Make it happen!

---

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome. As you would expect, someone like Kim English has a high Usage%, while Steve Moore has an extremely low one.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For Steve Moore, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.

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Comments

Display:

I thought we wouldn't see Jones until after the bowl game

He looks like he has a wide body and can take up some space in the paint.

Irish provenance of the schwa pronunciation of vowels in weakly stressed syllables -> Missoura

by totalloser on Dec 11, 2011 9:30 AM CST reply actions  

I like when we experiment and practice when we can against another team

Even with a decent lead, it still makes me itch to see these guys nail it the rest of the season. We play one team that does not make so many mistakes and I hope to see Mizzou shine!

by McZou on Dec 11, 2011 9:54 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

(You can tell I am work in the field when I write something so incoherent)

by McZou on Dec 11, 2011 9:56 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Either cocky or disinterested...

There is a God and I'm not it, after that EVERYTHING is subjective. Be careful for what you wish for, you just might GET IT!

by mizzoufan1 on Dec 11, 2011 11:24 AM CST up reply actions  

I felt the same way during the game.

But having sat thought on it overnight, maybe they were just bored?

by kctiger80 on Dec 11, 2011 11:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Well I hope they don't play "bored" against a legitimate opponent.

Actions form habits. They need to play at their top at all moments in the game. That’s how the greats play the game

by kcgiant06 on Dec 11, 2011 11:33 AM CST up reply actions  

It's a lose-lose

if they keep their foot completely on the accelerator, they’re running up the score in the eyes of opponents and impartial observers. But with a small team (in number) to begin with, they have to leave a lot of starters in.

I guess I’m saying that I understand why huge leads have led to lapses of late.

by CBonerfied on Dec 11, 2011 11:37 AM CST up reply actions  

No team plays at its best all the time

Top by definition can’t be something that happens constantly. It’s not a realistic expectation either in my opinion.

As long as we keep playing well enough to get up 30, I’m fine with a late game slump here and there.

by apr67d on Dec 11, 2011 11:54 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Playing down to competition

Let’s not get too upset when we won by 25 points. But Poor execution is always troubling.

Irish provenance of the schwa pronunciation of vowels in weakly stressed syllables -> Missoura

by totalloser on Dec 11, 2011 11:55 AM CST up reply actions  

That's what I'm talking about.

Poor Execution? Not an excuse when you’re up by 20 points. I don’t mind not running up the score, but be please be efficient on offense and play like they’ve been coached to.

by kcgiant06 on Dec 11, 2011 12:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Bill, how did the checklist come about again?

Reviewing last year’s most important statistics in relation to winning? Earlier in the year, it sure seemed like we were handily winning games while finishing 3-for-7 in the checklist. Just curious.

by CBonerfied on Dec 11, 2011 11:29 AM CST reply actions  

maybe a compilation of Kenpom's keys to the game or whatever?

and doesn’t statsheet correlate certain more obscure stats with winning?

"I try to shoot shots that I know are going to go in."
-Marcus Denmon

by ttt on Dec 11, 2011 1:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah...

…pretty much looking at stats from last year’s wins and losses and figuring out which ones seemed to correlate most closely to wins.

by Bill C. on Dec 11, 2011 2:02 PM CST up reply actions  

nice

Mizzou and Illinois are 2 of only 9 undefeated D1 teams. It could be a really marquee matchup between ranked teams. I’m already excited (also because it seems like Illinois isn’t really as good as their record).

"I try to shoot shots that I know are going to go in."
-Marcus Denmon

by ttt on Dec 11, 2011 1:18 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Illinois is certainly as good as their record

Neither team’s SOS is very good, but the Illini have beaten some decent teams (Richmond, Maryland, St. Bonnies, Gonzaga) without slipping up yet. Leonard is going to be Mizzou’s best test yet against a post player. But yeah, I am as excited as you are for that game. I always am.

by CBonerfied on Dec 11, 2011 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

people are saying the same thing about us.

and even whoever wins that game will still have to hear that same talk. i thought we had a good sked coming into the year, but a sos in the 300’s says otherwise. ’nova, cal, and nd you would have thought might have provided a little better strength in the schedule dept.

In love with the new Gaknar avatar.

by threadkiller on Dec 11, 2011 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

For sure, we'll see. I'm not trying to hate on Ilinois. And I know we could lose. I guess I mean...

they are one of only 9 undefeated teams, but nothing that I’ve seen is saying they are playing like one of the 9 best teams in the country. Whereas, I think I’m being objective when I say, Mizzou does seem to be playing like a top 10 team.
Illinois struggled mightily to put away Illinois St. and St. Bonaventure.
Mizzou has basically dominated every game we’ve played, never trailed in the second half, and looked good while doing it.
Illinois has had a lot of really, really close games against average teams.
Again, I know we could lose, but I think we have the significant upper hand. Even if Illinois keeps winning until Dec 22 and are ranked in the #15 range, I really like our chances.

"I try to shoot shots that I know are going to go in."
-Marcus Denmon

by ttt on Dec 11, 2011 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

That's actually a bit scary

The fact that IL had to scratch and claw, and we haven’t had to this year. But this group is pretty battle tested from last year, so hopefully they’ll rise in the face of adversity from it surfaces this year. .

Irish provenance of the schwa pronunciation of vowels in weakly stressed syllables -> Missoura

by totalloser on Dec 11, 2011 2:36 PM CST up reply actions  

yeah, that may be.

But I would rather have the 11-0 team that has been dominant than a team that has had multiple slugfests with average A10 and MVC teams. Win or lose, those types of games just don’t instill confidence.

"I try to shoot shots that I know are going to go in."
-Marcus Denmon

by ttt on Dec 11, 2011 2:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Agree with you...

I’ve watched each a couple times this year and I’ll be surprised if Missouri doesn’t handle Illinois comfortably. They’re not for real, and I think you guys are.

by hiphopopotamus on Dec 12, 2011 9:22 AM CST up reply actions  

yet,

so far so good.

In love with the new Gaknar avatar.

by threadkiller on Dec 11, 2011 8:30 PM CST up reply actions  

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