Mizzou Links, 6-27-11

by Bill C. on Jun 27, 2011 5:06 AM CDT in News

LONDON ENGLAND - OCTOBER 31: Justin Smith #94 of San Francisco 49ers celebrates sacking Kyle Orton the Denver Broncos Quarterback during the NFL International Series match between Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers at Wembley Stadium on October 31 2010 in London England. This is the fourth occasion where a regular season NFL match has been played in London. (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

The Trib brought the heat this weekend ... lots of good stuff here, and most of it's from them.

Mizzou Football Links

The Trib: Happy to give back: Former Tiger football stars Lorenzo Williams, Tony Temple plan charity events
The Trib: Richer TV contract has Big 12 schools on solid footing
The Trib: Big 12 has plenty of defensive minds
Pro Football Weekly: 49ers' 'Smith boys' keeping themselves very busy

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Comments

The home field advantage article ignores a very important point with regards to ats at home records.

Vegas and places that set these spreads take these things into account when doing it. For example, if Ohio St played northwestern at home, and would be a natural 14 point favorite, but with home field advantage gets another 4 points to make them an 18 point favorite. Then Akron plays someone crappy at home and is a 6 point favorite, but Vegas doesnt think their home field is as big of a deal so gives them just 1 point to make them a 7 point favorite. Well if Ohio State wins by 17, and Akron by 8, OSU did not cover the spread while Akron did. Based on his study that would make the home field advantage better for Akron, where as really it was 3 points for Ohio St, but only 2 for Akron. It’s a nice idea, but you really learn absolutly nothing from his study. THe bigger the stadium the larger the home field advantage Vegas expects when they set these spreads.

Annoying You Since 1986

by MUTIGERS86 on Jun 27, 2011 9:16 AM CDT reply actions

Right, but...

…doesn’t the post suggest that there’s an even bigger advantage than Vegas is accounting for? If Vegas is assigning Ohio State a larger home-field advantage, and Ohio State is still covering a higher percentage of the time than Akron, then doesn’t that tell us something?

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by Bill C. on Jun 27, 2011 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions

I have always thought

the purpose of the line was to get as much money bet on the game as possible. Therefore, the lines are not predictions by the oddsmakers, just a line that will get as much money thrown on the game as possible.

by mizzou2396 on Jun 27, 2011 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions

But for the books to retain their advantage...

… the lines need to be as close to the result as possible so the bets are evenly distributed.

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by RPT on Jun 27, 2011 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions

in a lot of cases yes, but not every case

sometimes Vegas knows that the betting public is going with their gut instead of their head.

by mizzou2396 on Jun 27, 2011 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions

It's not in the best interest of the house to give away any sort of advantage.

And the best way to avoid doing that is to predict the outcome as closely as possible using as much evidence as you can gather.

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by ghtd36 on Jun 27, 2011 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions

it's biggest advantage is to get as many people to place bets on either side of the line

which sometimes means picking it very closely to the predicted outcome, but not always. That’s the only point I’m making here. The line is not set up to predict scores, it does, as a side effect, sometimes end up predicting scores, but it’s not its purpose. Therefore, any study in which the premise has a presumption that Vegas is trying to predict a score, is flawed. Fatally? Maybe not. But flawed nonetheless.

by mizzou2396 on Jun 27, 2011 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions

I guess if the sole purpose of the article was to give you a tip on betting...

Then yes, I guess you did learn something. If the point is to determine the relationship between crowd size and home field advantage it did little to nothing.

Annoying You Since 1986

by MUTIGERS86 on Jun 27, 2011 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions

THe real way to do this study would be to take a system like Sagarins predictor ratings...

And ignore his overall homefield and compare how teams did against the expected result at home compared to on the road and then cross reference that with crowd size. Obviously very time intensive and has its flaws as well, but would be much more accurate.

Annoying You Since 1986

by MUTIGERS86 on Jun 27, 2011 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Am I a snob? That Yanks Abroad piece

I was reading it, and agreeing with it (not having enough soccer knowledge to know if it’s true or not), but when I saw him use the following phrase:

Achille’s heel.

I completely discredited everything he said and stopped reading. If you don’t know that it’s “Achilles’ Heel” then I don’t trust anything else you write.

And, maybe it was just a typo that lead to the apostrophe being put in the wrong place, but that’s like calling the boy who walks down the aisle before a wedding the “Ring Bear”.

Rational Mizzou Talk, whether you like us or not.

by Andy--01 on Jun 27, 2011 2:17 PM CDT reply actions