What's a fair line for the WIU game?

by Andy--01 on Sep 12, 2011 8:15 AM CDT

My wife's cousin works for Western Illinois, so we're wagering a 12-pack on the game. As confident as he is in his 'Necks, he's requesting points. Since Vegas won't be giving points on this matchup of the ages, what should I give him?

30 seems like too much, and 20 doesn't seem like enough, so I'm suggesting 25. Is that fair?

Fight, Tigers, fight for Old Mizzou

Right behind you, everyone is with you

break the line and follow down the field

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Being a WIU grad and a huge fan of the program...

this is such a weird team this year. The team has the talent to throw some points on the board, but the defense has struggled. WIU is trying to break in a new JUCO QB, or at least trying to figure out who the QB is going to be. Hudson had a solid game on Saturday. The defense is godawful. Caulton Ray (former Michigan State RB) is so sketchy: some games he’ll go for 150, the next he’ll go for 40. We basically have a ton of JUCO guys trying to gel, and it’s taking a couple games.

I’d say more like 27-28 would be a solid go. If it’s 49-21, I’d be surprised.

Then again, Western has always shown up v I-A/FBS opponents. We’ve smoked several MAC opponents over the years (which led to rumors we could jump. Another story for another day…). Dominated Purdue last year for much of the game in Lafayette, but that Purdue team was garbage, and Matt Barr was an experienced QB for us.

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by Big Head on Sep 12, 2011 6:20 PM CDT reply actions

Ok, we're gonna set it at 27 1/2 pts

Winner gets a 12 of Stag (though, I don’t know when the next time I’ll see him is, since I won’t be at Christmas this year….

Rational Mizzou Talk, whether you like us or not.

by Andy--01 on Sep 12, 2011 8:02 PM CDT up reply actions

well... that's what I'm going to offer

I think he’d be a fool to not take it. Especialy considering there’s only about $6 in beer riding on the line.

Rational Mizzou Talk, whether you like us or not.

by Andy--01 on Sep 12, 2011 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions

I think that is pretty solid.

Just plugging in the scores at anything else just doesn’t make much sense, knowing both of these teams like I do. If this was a more experienced team, I’d close that gap a bit, depending on how Josh Hudson turns out.

The MVFC (and old Gateway) Conference always has a good showing against non-BCS Conference teams, which are usually the same schools recruiting these guys anyway. Bumping up to a very good BCS conference team is just rough. MVFC has a lot of the big dogs of FCS football and has never had a problem playing lower-level BCS teams tough (UNI has ruined Iowa State’s season, NDSU beat kU, NDSU and/or SDSU have dominated Minnesota in the past couple of years). They typically beat up MAC and Sun Belt squads, which is part of the reason MVFC teams are mostly playing BCS teams. The non-BCS teams can’t afford a loss to an FCS school. It’s a GREAT conference top-to-bottom…for an FCS conference. In reality, any top 50 team will smoke an MVFC team though. Too much speed.

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by Big Head on Sep 12, 2011 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions

i think it may be a little closer than some think

just due to the fact that we’re so thin at the running back position, our receiving corp is sort of average, and our secondary and pass rush has struggled. if we were playing a top-25 caliber fcs team, i’d almost be concerned this week.