Oklahoma Beats Missouri: Beyond The Box Score

NORMAN, OK - SEPTEMBER 24: Tail back Henry Josey #20 of the Missouri Tigers rushes up field for a touchdown during the second half against the Oklahoma Sooners on September 24, 2011 at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma. Oklahoma defeated Missouri 38-28. (Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images)

With no game this coming weekend, we'll try to take a look at where Mizzou stands after four games. For now, we'll take one last look at last Saturday night.

Oklahoma 38, Missouri 28

Missouri Oklahoma Missouri Oklahoma
Close % 82.1% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 33.3% 44.8% Success Rate 52.9% 62.9%
Leverage % 68.0% 80.5% PPP 0.43 0.37
S&P 0.962 1.001
TOTAL
EqPts 31.5 34.7 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 35.7% 61.0% Success Rate 25.0% 47.1%
Close PPP 0.35 0.43 PPP 0.39 0.51
Close S&P 0.704 1.042 S&P 0.643 0.980
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 16.7 8.9 Number 0 2
Close Success Rate 40.0% 51.5% Turnover Pts 0.0 7.5
Close PPP 0.27 0.26 Turnover Pts Margin +7.5 -7.5
Close S&P 0.668 0.771
Line Yards/carry 3.67 2.36 Q1 S&P 1.124 1.022
Q2 S&P 0.485 1.077
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.457 0.986
EqPts 14.7 25.8 Q4 S&P 1.319 0.873
Close Success Rate 30.8% 68.2%
Close PPP 0.44 0.56 1st Down S&P 0.862 1.040
Close S&P 0.746 1.246 2nd Down S&P 1.024 1.043
SD/PD Sack Rate 4.8% / 7.1% 0.0% / 0.0% 3rd Down S&P 0.484 0.718
Projected Pt. Margin: Missouri +4.3 | Actual Pt. Margin: Oklahoma +10

Good: Mizzou Did Well On Standard Downs

Two things worked very much in Mizzou's favor on Saturday: 1) The Script, and 2) Henry Josey.

Here are Mizzou's first 11 standard downs:

1st-and-10, MU 24: James Franklin pass to T.J. Moe, 7 yards (SUCCESS)
2nd-and-3, MU 31: Henry Josey run, 14 yards (SUCCESS)
1st-and-10, MU 45: Franklin pass to Moe, 32 yards (SUCCESS)
1st-and-10, OU 23: Josey run, 10 yards (SUCCESS)
1st-and-10, OU 13: Josey run, 12 yards (SUCCESS)
1st-and-goal, OU 1: Franklin run, 0 yards
2nd-and-goal, OU 1: Franklin run, 1 yard TOUCHDOWN (SUCCESS)
1st-and-15, MU 14: Franklin run, -1 yards
1st-and-10, MU 24: Franklin pass to Moe, 29 yards (SUCCESS)
1st-and-10, OU 47: Josey run, 2 yards
2nd-and-8, OU 45: Franklin to L'Damian Washington, 45 yards TOUCHDOWN (SUCCESS)

That's a 73% success rate out of the gates. Mizzou's second drive was done in by a false start penalty and a sack, but the script certainly seemed to be working. The problem came when OU switched from man-to-man to more zone looks, but for the game, Mizzou still managed a healthy stat line on standard downs.

As for my position on "Henry Josey should be getting the ball more!!" ... I agree (as I just mentioned at the Mothership), though we do also have to understand that sometimes intentions and reality don't match up. When Mizzou ran zone reads after the first few drives, OU was almost certainly going to be over-compensating for Josey and forcing Franklin to keep the ball (and we never really know how many of the Franklin keepers were designed and how many were reads); plus, for a while, Mizzou was falling into passing downs too quickly to give Josey many opportunities. The key, of course, is that David Yost knows Josey needs the ball more, and he's a pretty creative guy. We'll see what happens.

Bad: Mizzou Did Not Do So Well On Passing Downs

A sophomore quarterback with a sophomore running back, invisible senior receivers (I'll come back to them) and some bad snaps does not make for a strong showing on passing downs, either at Owen Field or anywhere else in the country. Mizzou was able to conjure up some passing downs magic at Arizona State, but OU handled them well. They shut down the pass, then keyed on some predictable James Franklin keepers.

Good: Mizzou Won Two Quarters

This is basically the definition of a moral victory, but it's still something. The last time a conference opponent stayed within even 10 of Oklahoma in Norman was October 13, 2007, when Missouri did it. The time before that? November 11, 2006, when Texas Tech did it. The last time a conference rival actually stayed within single digits? November 12, 2005, when Texas A&M did it. Mizzou came into this season having won 40 games in four years -- they are beyond moral victories. But one can express concern about certain aspects of the game while still acknowledging that this was a pretty impressive performance.

Bad: Those Are Some Gaudy Oklahoma Passing Numbers

Yikes. I mean ... I knew Oklahoma had their way with Missouri's secondary, particularly during the time when Mizzou's offense was stalling, but still ... a 1.246 S&P? A 68-percent success rate? Yikes.

As we see below, Oklahoma succeeded in a way that we should hope Mizzou will succeed in the near future: they utilized the entire field and all skill positions. Passes to wide receivers were perfectly successful -- 73% completion rate, 9.6 yards per attempt -- but the running backs and tight ends were even more successful, and they saw over 30 percent of Landry Jones' passes.

Player Targets Catches Catch% Target% Rec. Yds. Yds. Per Target
Ryan Broyles (WR) 16 13 81.3% 33.3% 154 9.6
Jaz Reynolds (WR) 6 5 83.3% 12.5% 93 15.5
Dom Whaley (RB) 5 5 100.0% 10.4% 82 16.4
Dejuan Miller (WR) 5 4 80.0% 10.4% 40 8.0
Roy Finch (RB) 3 2 66.7% 6.3% 13 4.3
Kameel Jackson (WR) 3 0 0.0% 6.3% 0 0.0
James Hanna (TE) 2 2 100.0% 4.2% 29 14.5
Austin Haywood (TE) 2 2 100.0% 4.2% 7 3.5
Brennan Clay (RB) 2 1 50.0% 4.2% 5 2.5
Trent Ratterree (TE) 1 1 100.0% 2.1% 25 25.0
N/A 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TOTAL 48 35 72.9% 100.0% 448 9.3
TOTAL (WR) 30 22 73.3% 62.5% 287 9.6
TOTAL (RB) 10 8 80.0% 20.8% 100 10.0
TOTAL (TE) 5 5 100.0% 10.4% 61 12.2

Honestly, though Ryan Broyles' overall numbers were gaudy, you should be happy anytime you hold him under 10 yards per target. What killed Missouri was the fact that Jones targeted Jaz Reynolds and Dom Whaley 11 times, and it resulted in 10 completions and 175 yards. Ouch.

(And I'm going to whistle right along to the next section without acknowledging how much of a back-breaker the 2nd-and-8 completion to a certain Mister Trent Ratterree was on Oklahoma's final drive.)

Good: T.J. Moe Had A Breakout Game
Bad: The Seniors Were Either Terrible Or Nonexistent

Or to put it another way ... disregarding the four incomplete passes that did not include target data...

Passes to Seniors: 7-for-16 for 115 yards.
Passes to Underclassmen: 9-for-17 for 176 yards.

Player Targets Catches Catch% Target% Rec. Yds. Yds. Per Target
T.J. Moe (WR) 10 7 70.0% 30.3% 119 11.9
Wes Kemp (WR) 7 3 42.9% 21.2% 39 5.6
Jerrell Jackson (WR) 6 2 33.3% 18.2% 36 6.0
Michael Egnew (TE) 3 2 66.7% 9.1% 40 13.3
L'Damian Washington (WR) 1 1 100.0% 3.0% 45 45.0
Henry Josey (RB) 1 1 100.0% 3.0% 12 12.0
Marcus Lucas (WR) 1 0 0.0% 3.0% 0 0.0
N/A 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TOTAL 33 16 48.5% 100.0% 291 8.8
TOTAL (WR) 25 13 52.0% 75.8% 239 9.6
TOTAL (RB) 1 1 100.0% 3.0% 12 12.0
TOTAL (TE) 3 2 66.7% 9.1% 40 13.3

Mizzou's passing struggles last year came when Blaine Gabbert either couldn't find anybody open in man coverage or threw challenging-but-catchable balls at Wes Kemp and Jerrell Jackson with little to no success. I started getting flashbacks in the second and third quarters, when either Franklin had to roll out of the pocket and throw the ball way because nobody was open, and when he started throwing moderate degree-of-difficulty passes at Jerrell Jackson and saw them hit the turf. Michael Egnew finally made a contribution on Mizzou's last two drives, but as I mentioned on Sunday, Mizzou simply has to get Egnew, Jackson and Kemp going if they are going to reach whatever their ceiling is this year. If they aren't going to step up, then I am all for L'Damian Washington, Lucas and Eric Waters seeing more and more passes. (I'm actually wondering why Washington didn't see a single pass thrown his way after the touchdown. If nothing else, he's proven his ball skills are as good as anybody's on the team over the past three weeks.)

Summary

I would say we're basically on the same page with this one. There is a lot to like about the Missouri offense, the run defense, and this incredible sophomore class. But while Mizzou's defensive backs made some nice plays, they still didn't make nearly enough of them, the pass rush was nowhere to be found, and the offense still struggles with players appearing and disappearing for possessions at a time. There are quite a few playmakers on both sides of the ball, and the goal for the bye week is to work toward making them all show up at once. Or at least most of them.

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