Mizzou Beats Miami (Ohio): Beyond The Box Score

Mizzou's best receiving target last Saturday.

We've obviously already hashed and re-hashed this game, and it's just about time to turn our attention to Arizona State, but the numbers have been punched, so we should find out what they have to say.

Missouri 17, Miami-OH 6

Miami-OH Missouri Miami-OH Missouri
Close % 100.0% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 38.7% 54.0% Success Rate 47.8% 52.6%
Leverage % 61.3% 60.3% PPP 0.15 0.19
S&P 0.626 0.715
TOTAL
EqPts 10.6 15.8 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 36.0% 41.3% Success Rate 17.2% 24.0%
Close PPP 0.14 0.25 PPP 0.13 0.35
Close S&P 0.502 0.664 S&P 0.305 0.586
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 5.5 9.1 Number 2 1
Close Success Rate 33.3% 48.6% Turnover Pts 9.9 5.2
Close PPP 0.17 0.26 Turnover Pts Margin -4.7 +4.7
Close S&P 0.500 0.745
Line Yards/carry 2.18 3.25 Q1 S&P 0.751 1.007
Q2 S&P 0.383 0.567
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.472 0.464
EqPts 5.1 6.7 Q4 S&P 0.407 0.611
Close Success Rate 38.1% 32.1%
Close PPP 0.12 0.24 1st Down S&P 0.548 0.620
Close S&P 0.503 0.562 2nd Down S&P 0.324 0.846
SD/PD Sack Rate 4.6% / 10.0% 7.7% / 6.7% 3rd Down S&P 0.653 0.479
Projected Pt. Margin: Missouri +9.9 | Actual Pt. Margin: Missouri +11

Find Your Identity

In the first quarter, Mizzou ran 15 plays; 10 were rushes (67%). In the second quarter, they passed 65% of the time. It was 50-50 in the third quarter and, with Mizzou in clock-killer mode, it was back to 57% run. I don't think it is a coincidence that Mizzou's two best offensive quarters (Q1, Q4) were the most run-heavy. James Franklin isn't Brad Smith -- you can't base an entire offense around him running the zone read. But the run was certainly ahead of the pass, and Mizzou's 3.25 line yards per carry were actually a solid average (much better than I expected to see). This was a "Figure out what your new quarterback can and can't do" game, and while there may have been reasons beyond Franklin for the passing game's struggles, it was still rather far behind the curve. We'll see a) how quickly the passing game comes around and b) how Mizzou chooses to attack Arizona State on Friday night. Identity goes a long way, and Mizzou really didn't have one on Saturday.

Stay on Schedule

Over the last six years, the national average for Leverage Rate (the ratio of standard downs to all plays) is 68%. Mizzou's average over the last four years: 71%. Mizzou's against Miami: 60%. That means that for every ten plays Mizzou ran, there was an extra passing down (and opportunity for failure) thrown in. Sixty percent is just way too low for Missouri to be producing against almost any mid-major defense, even a pretty well-coached one like Miami's.

Shut It Down

Granted, they committed a couple of drive-extending pass interference calls, but as a whole, Mizzou shut Miami down when the Redhawks reached passing downs. That's the way it's supposed to work when you hold an athletic advantage over your opponents, but that doesn't mean that it always happens that way. Mizzou's own success rate on passing downs was far below the norm, but Miami's was quite a bit lower.

Targets And Catches

Miami did well when they got the ball to their wideouts. Mizzou was too fast for the underneath stuff.

Miami Targets Catches Catch% Target% Rec. Yds. Yds. Per Target
Chris Givens (WR) 10 7 70.0% 25.6% 71 7.1
David Frazier (WR) 7 6 85.7% 17.9% 55 7.9
Andy Cruse (WR) 5 4 80.0% 12.8% 40 8.0
Dawan Scott (RB) 5 2 40.0% 12.8% 16 3.2
Orne Bey (RB) 4 3 75.0% 10.3% -3 -0.8
Kendrick Bruton (TE) 3 3 100.0% 7.7% 12 4.0
Willie Culpepper (RB) 2 1 50.0% 5.1% 3 1.5
Dustin White (TE) 2 0 0.0% 5.1% 0 0.0
Erik Finklea (RB) 1 0 0.0% 2.6% 0 0.0
TOTAL 39 26 66.7% 100.0% 200 5.1
TOTAL (WR) 22 17 77.3% 56.4% 166 7.5
TOTAL (RB) 12 6 50.0% 30.8% 16 1.3
TOTAL (TE) 5 3 60.0% 12.8% 12 2.4

Of course, part of the reason the receivers' numbers were strong were because Miami quarterback Zac Dysert never forced the issue, always happy to dump off to a tight end or running back for no gain. if he'd forced the issue, the receivers' numbers would have been worse.

Missouri Targets Catches Catch% Target% Rec. Yds. Yds. Per Target
T.J. Moe (WR)
9 6 66.7% 34.6% 56 6.2
Wes Kemp (WR)
5 3 60.0% 19.2% 24 4.8
Michael Egnew (TE)
4 2 50.0% 15.4% 12 3.0
Marcus Lucas (WR)
2 1 50.0% 7.7% 10 5.0
L'Damian Washington (WR)
2 1 50.0% 7.7% 4 2.0
De'Vion Moore (RB)
2 2 100.0% 7.7% 17 8.5
Bud Sasser (WR)
1 1 100.0% 3.8% 4 4.0
Kendial Lawrence (RB)
1 1 100.0% 3.8% 2 2.0
TOTAL 26 17 65.3% 100.0% 129 5.0
TOTAL (WR) 19 12 63.2% 73.1% 98 5.2
TOTAL (RB) 3 3 100.0% 11.5% 19 6.3
TOTAL (TE) 4 2 50.0% 15.4% 12 3.0

Yuck. The only Mizzou target who averaged even 6.5 yards per target was De'Vion Moore. That's not good. Despite a weaker arm than Blaine Gabbert's, James Franklin seems solid when he is looking both vertically and in the middle of the field. Mizzou is known for sideline-to-sideline action, and I'm not sure how much they're going to get away with it this year, especially without Gabbert's cannon.

Summary

Survive, advance, etc. There's really no way to paint a pretty picture about Mizzou's offense here, but as we've already said, they didn't look very good against Illinois and San Diego State last year either. With a little more continuity on the line and a quarterback who at some point becomes truly up-to-speed, things will pick up. Will that happen by Friday night?

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