Know Your Finals Rival: Baylor Bears (And Saturday Live Thread)

COLUMBIA, MO - FEBRUARY 11: Michael Dixon #11 of the Missouri Tigerspasses as AJ Walton #22 of the Baylor Bears defends during the game on February 11, 2012 at Mizzou Arena in Columbia, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

LEAVE YOUR TRIFECTA PICKS IN COMMENTS.

Consider this your Saturday live thread in anticipation of this evening's game ... this is pretty bare-bones, as Rally Baby has been a handful this morning.

Missouri Vs. Baylor (2-0)


MU
BU
Pace (No. of Possessions)
65.9
Points Per Minute
2.01 1.81
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.22
1.10
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.53
1.20
2-PT FG% 58.9%
52.3%
3-PT FG% 42.9%
33.3%
FT% 72.7%
76.9%
True Shooting % 64.7%
54.7%




MU BU
Assists/Gm 17.5
16.5
Steals/Gm 6.5
7.0
Turnovers/Gm 13.0
16.0
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.85
1.47




MU BU
Expected Off. Rebounds/Gm 10.0
12.0
Offensive Rebounds/Gm 10.0
14.5
Difference +0.0
+2.5

Where Mizzou Has Enjoyed The Biggest Matchup Advantages

FG% Offense. Anything over 64% is ridiculously good from a True Shooting % perspective.

Forcing Turnovers. It doesn't matter what size advantage Baylor has if they are wasting 16 possessions per game.

Where Baylor Has Enjoyed The Biggest Matchup Advantages

Rebounding. The advantage hasn't been as significant as we feared with Baylor's length, but it has still existed. Offensive boards kept them in the game for quite a while in Columbia.

Forcing Turnovers. Missouri (in particular, Marcus Denmon and Ricardo Ratliffe) has been sloppy with the ball against Baylor, and that is partially by design. Baylor takes risks, and it typically either results in an open shot or a turnover.

Common Opponents

Game Missouri BU
Iowa State W (+6) W (+15)
at Iowa State W (+7) L (-8)
Kansas W (+3) L (-14)
at Kansas L (-1) L (-18)
Kansas State L (-10) L (-1)
at Kansas State L (-16) W (+2)
Oklahoma W (+38) W (+10)
at Oklahoma W (+3) W (+12)
Oklahoma State W (+18) W (+41)
at Oklahoma State L (-7) W (+4)
Texas W (+11) W (+5)
at Texas W (+1) W (+5)
Texas A&M W (+19) W (+9)
at Texas A&M W (+9) W (+3)
Texas Tech W (+13) W (+29)
at Texas Tech W (+22) W (+13)

Transitive property says ... Mizzou by 0.6!

Mizzou Player Stats Vs. BU

Player AdjGS*/Gm GmSc/Min Line
Phil Pressey 22.3 0.65 34.5 MPG, 18.5 PPG (71% 2PT, 50% 3PT, 64% FT), 5.0 APG, 4.5 RPG, 3.5 SPG, 2.5 TOPG
Marcus Denmon 13.5 0.35 39.0 MPG, 15.5 PPG (67% 2PT, 33% 3PT, 80% FT), 4.0 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, 3.0 TOPG
Ricardo Ratliffe 12.5 0.39 32.0 MPG, 16.5 PPG (61% 2PT, 71% FT), 8.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 4.5 TOPG
Mike Dixon 10.4 0.38 27.5 MPG, 11.0 PPG (60% 2PT, 40% 3PT, 100% FT), 4.0 APG, 2.5 RPG, 2.0 TOPG
Kim English 9.3 0.31 30.0 MPG, 11.0 PPG (57% 2PT, 33% 3PT, 83% FT), 3.0 APG, 2.0 RPG, 4.0 PFPG
Steve Moore 5.2 0.31 17.0 MPG, 3.5 PPG (60% 2PT, 33% FT), 2.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG
Matt Pressey 5.1 0.25 20.0 MPG, 4.5 PPG (0% 2PT, 100% 3PT), 1.5 APG, 1.0 RPG

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • Highest Usage%: Ratliffe (29%), P. Pressey (23%), Denmon (21%)
  • Highest Floor%: Moore (50%), P. Pressey (48%), M. Pressey (46%)
  • Highest %Pass: M. Pressey (72%), Dixon (61%), English (61%)
  • Highest %Shoot: Ratliffe (60%), Moore (37%), English (28%)
  • Highest %Fouled: Moore (20%), Ratliffe (17%), P. Pressey (14%)
  • Highest %T/O: Ratliffe (23%), Denmon (8%), P. Pressey (5%)

BU Player Stats Vs. Mizzou

Player AdjGS*/Gm GmSc/Min Line
Quincy Miller (6'9, 210, Fr.) 27.6 0.90 30.5 MPG, 24.5 PPG (68% 2PT, 100% 3PT, 90% FT), 5.5 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 3.0 TOPG
Quincy Acy (6'7, 235, Sr.) 14.9 0.46 32.5 MPG, 12.5 PPG (63% 2PT, 83% FT), 8.5 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 BPG, 3.0 TOPG, 3.5 PFPG
Pierre Jackson (5'10, 180, Jr.) 14.8 0.42 35.0 MPG, 12.5 PPG (67% 2PT, 30% 3PT, 67% FT), 9.5 APG, 4.0 RPG, 4.5 TOPG
Anthony Jones (6'10, 195, Sr.) 7.9 0.56 14.0 MPG, 5.0 PPG (50% 2PT, 100% 3PT), 3.5 RPG
Brady Heslip (6'2, 180, So.) 3.6 0.18 20.0 MPG, 8.0 PPG (40% 2PT, 36% 3PT), 1.0 APG
Deuce Bello (6'4, 185, Fr.) 3.1 1.25 2.5 MPG, 2.0 PPG, 1.0 RPG
Perry Jones III (6'11, 235, So.) 2.8 0.09 30.0 MPG, 6.0 PPG (32% 2PT), 6.0 RPG, 1.5 APG, 2.5 TOPG
A.J. Walton (6'1, 185, Jr.) 0.1 0.01 21.0 MPG, 1.0 PPG (25% 2PT, 0% 3PT), 2.0 APG, 2.0 SPG
Cory Jefferson (6'9, 210, So.) 0.1 0.03 4.0 MPG, 1.0 PPG (25% 2PT), 1.0 RPG
Gary Franklin (6'2, 195, So.) -4.4 -0.42 10.5 MPG, 0.0 PPG (0% 2PT

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • Highest Usage%: Miller (30%), Jefferson (24%), Jackson (21%)
  • Highest Floor%: Miller (52%), A. Jones (51%), Bello (46%)
  • Highest %Pass: Jackson (77%), Walton (72%), Franklin (66%)
  • Highest %Shoot: A. Jones (86%), Miller (63%), Heslip (56%)
  • Highest %Fouled: Bello (33%), Miller (23%), Acy (15%)
  • Highest %T/O: Acy (15%), Miller (14%), A. Jones (14%)

Keys to the Game

  1. PJ3. He was absolutely nonexistent in both games versus Missouri this year, and he has been magnificent thus far in the Big 12 Tournament: 49 points on 18-for-30 shooting, 18 rebounds. If Missouri can fluster him like they did during the regular season, Baylor is incredibly beatable.

  2. The Long Ball. Both teams can get smoking hot from the 3-point line -- Missouri with Marcus Denmon, Kim English, Mike Dixon and Phil Pressey; Baylor with Kansas killer Brady Heslip, Pierre Jackson and a couple of their bigs. If only one team gets hot, that's an advantage of, what, about 9-18 points?

  3. Flipadelphia. If PJ3 hasn't been the MVP of the Big 12 Tournament thus far, Phil Pressey possibly has. (Obviously Kim English has an excellent case as well.) He has been Great Flip for two straight games, and when Great Flip makes a sustained appearance ... well, to say the least, Missouri is ridiculously tough to beat.

Prediction

Ken Pomeroy says Mizzou 76, Baylor 73. As well as Baylor has played in the tournament thus far, it is difficult to ignore the fact that Missouri has played at either the same, or an even higher, level. If Kim English is not too hobbled from yesterday's quad injury, and if both teams are both full strength and ready to play, this could be fantastic. I'll go with Pomeroy's projection, simply because I have absolutely no idea what to expect.

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