Know your Bayou rematch: LSU

Stacy Revere

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The Tigers of Missouri have a chance to avenge one of their most disappointing losses of the season, but the streaking Tigers of LSU aren't going to make it easy.

LSU Since Last Time (7-2)


LSU
Opp.
Pace (No. of Possessions)
67.6
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.04 0.99
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.26 1.16
2-PT FG% 50.4% 45.3%
3-PT FG% 34.9% 28.5%
FT% 67.9% 66.8%
True Shooting % 54.1% 49.7%




LSU Opp.
Assists/Gm 14.8 9.8
Steals/Gm 7.1 7.4
Turnovers/Gm 14.0 12.4
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.56 1.38




LSU Opp.
Expected Off. Rebounds/Gm 11.0 12.2
Offensive Rebounds/Gm 10.9 12.2
Difference -0.1 +0.0

A Slightly Different Team

This doesn't look exactly like the LSU team Mizzou lost to in Baton Rouge, this team looks like they've improved a bit. They've increased their True Shooting % from 51.1% to 54.1%, now hitting 50.4% of their 2PT and 67.9% of their FT. Since their offense has gotten rolling, they've become a tougher challenge in the SEC (and it all started with beating us seemingly). They like to dish the ball out and share the scoring too, averaging 14.8 assists a game. As we'll see when we look at the individual player stats, that helps make the scoring on this team fairly balanced.

Ken Pomeroy Stats

LSU Offense vs MU Defense Ranks

LSU Offense MU Defense Advantage
Efficiency 135 69 MU
Effective FG% 142 89 MU
Turnover % 242 290 LSU
Off. Reb. % 67 40 MU
FTA/FGA 253 37 MU big
MU Offense vs LSU Defense Ranks

MU Offense LSU Defense Advantage
Efficiency 11 93 MU
Effective FG% 77 71 push
Turnover % 118 75 LSU
Off. Reb. % 6 235 MU big
FTA/FGA 212 238 MU

Where the Bayou Bengals are weakest

They're going to allow teams to get to the offensive glass, and that's great news for Mizzou. Getting a lot of second chance opportunities against this team won't be a bad thing, as we saw how they like to get their offense going in transition last time. If Oriakhi can continue to be a rebound machine under the basket on offense, LSU is going to have a hard time finding an answer for him if Johnny O' Bryant III isn't getting it done. They also foul quite a bit, so LSU will find themselves in foul trouble quite often. Although Johnny O' Bryant III is a beast, he averages over 3 PF a game. Getting him in foul trouble would be a major plus for Missouri.

Where they are best

They don't turn the ball over and they'll force a lot of turnovers. This is a team that will pressure you into making mistakes, so Mizzou needs to continue to control the ball well at home. Grabbing offensive boards will be great but if we turn the ball over a ton it won't matter anyway. If there's one way this team will stay in a game on the road it's with defense, and if you let their defensive pressure wear you down, you're in for a long night.

LSU's Season Since Last Time

  • Wins (Team Rank is from KenPom.com)
    No. 22 Missouri (73-70)
    No. 74 Alabama (97-94, 3OT)
    No. 75 Arkansas (65-60)
    No. 93 Vanderbilt (57-56)
    at No. 202 South Carolina (64-46)
    at No. 277 Mississippi State (69-68)
    No. 277 Mississippi State (80-68)
  • Losses
    at No. 60 Tennessee (72-82)
    at No. 74 Alabama (57-60)

So since beating us, they've only lost to a streaking Tennessee team (that just beat Florida) and a sneaky Alabama team. They've seemingly started to figure things out, and it just kinda seems to me that anytime a team gets a big upset win over Missouri it kind of turns their season around. I have absolutely no data to support this, but that's just what it feels like to me. To be fair they've only won 2 of 4 road games since playing Mizzou with wins over a terrible Mississippi State team and a South Carolina team that isn't full of world beaters.

LSU Player Stats Since Last Time

Player AdjGS*/Gm GmSc/Min Line
Johnny O'Bryant III (6'9, 256, So.) 16.7 0.49 33.8 MPG, 16.8 PPG (53% 2PT, 66% FT), 9.6 RPG, 2.7 APG, 3.2 TOPG, 3.4 PFPG
Charles Carmouche (6'4, 187, Sr.) 13.0 0.49 26.7 MPG, 11.2 PPG (58% 2PT, 47% 3PT, 67% FT), 5.4 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.4 SPG, 2.0 TOPG
Anthony Hickey (5'11, 178, So.) 10.7 0.29 36.6 MPG, 11.6 PPG (49% 2PT, 30% 3PT, 31% FT), 4.9 APG, 3.1 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 2.8 TOPG, 2.7 PFPG
Andre Stringer (5'10, 182, Jr.) 7.9 0.24 33.2 MPG, 9.4 PPG (30% 2PT, 41% 3PT, 78% FT), 2.3 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.4 TOPG
Shavon Coleman (6'5, 195, Jr.) 7.7 0.28 27.0 MPG, 8.2 PPG (41% 2PT, 20% 3PT, 76% FT), 4.6 RPG, 1.6 TOPG, 2.6 PFPG
Malik Morgan (6'4, 188, Fr.) 6.3 0.31 20.2 MPG, 6.4 PPG (52% 2PT, 32% 3PT, 80% FT), 2.8 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.2 TOPG, 2.8 PFPG
Andrew Del Piero (7'3, 254, Sr.) 5.4 0.41 13.2 MPG, 3.8 PPG (67% 2PT, 60% FT), 3.3 RPG
Jalen Courtney (6'8, 228, Jr.) 2.2 0.29 7.6 MPG, 2.1 PPG, 1.6 RPG
Shane Hammink (6'7, 208, Fr.) -0.3 -0.04 6.9 MPG, 0.8 PPG
Corban Collins (6'3, 192, Fr.) -0.8 -0.15 5.1 MPG, 0.5 PPG

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • Highest Usage%: O'Bryant (28%), Hickey (22%), Carmouche (21%)
  • Highest Floor%: Del Piero (50%), O'Bryant (42%), Carmouche (42%)
  • Highest %Pass: Hickey (64%), Stringer (55%), Morgan (54%)
  • Highest %Shoot: Courtney (76%), Del Piero (46%), Coleman (42%)
  • Highest %Fouled: Coleman (26%), Del Piero (20%), O'Bryant (15%)
  • Highest %T/O: Coleman (10%), O'Bryant (9%), Del Piero (9%)
  • Johnny O' Bryant III was a huge presence for LSU the last time we played them, so Oriakhi will again have his hands full defensively. He averages 16.8 PPG and 9.6 RPG, so watching the big men go at it at the rim will be fun.
  • Anyone that's watched LSU play this season knows that Charles Carmouche can get HOT. He's a 47% 3PT shooter, but once he gets in a zone it's hard to get him out of it. The game against South Carolina showed that Mizzou does still struggle defending the three (which isn't completely random, giving them wide open looks IS bad perimeter defense) so making this sure this guy doesn't get uncontested shots is important.

Keys to the Game

  1. Limit turnovers. We cannot turn the ball over against this team. They like to score in transition, and giveaways will allow them to do that. Good Phil along with another solid performance from our guards would go a long way in this one.

  2. Contain Johnny O' Bryant III. What is it with big guys whose last names start with "O" having success against this team? (Too soon?) This man is an absolute beast, almost averaging a double double and putting up about 17 points a game. If Oriakhi can handle him, LSU loses their most valuable piece on offense.

  3. DEFENSE. An awful defensive showing in the first half against South Carolina kept them in the game, and a pretty great defensive showing in the second half took them right back out of it. Mizzou has proven they can and will score, especially at home. It's time we show some consistency on defense too. Three combined halves of bad defense (and one OT period) against Kentucky and South Carolina vs. three combined halves of good defense against Florida and South Carolina are a good enough sample for me to say that this team will go as far as the defense takes them.

Prediction

I like Mizzou in this one. We're obviously strong at home, but I just don't think LSU has what it takes to get it done a second time. The first time we played them we didn't have Keion Bell, who is quickly showing how ridiculously good he can be. If we can limit turnovers and play solid defense, I'll take Mizzou 81-67. If we do a poor job controlling the ball, this one could go a whole different direction.

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