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A TiK's Ten Special: The One Chaotic Scenario Which Would Force the Committee to Sweat Mizzou

Let me start this off by acknowledging the reality that Mizzou is not going make the Playoff. I understand that went out the window when the Selection Committee ranked us #16. My hope is that we could make it to #13, ahead of all the 3-loss teams, but that was not the case. So, I don't see any scenario, now, where Mizzou could jump 12 spots in reality.

However, I do believe there is one scenario that would at least make the 12 men and women in that room actually be forced to talk about the Missouri Tigers.

To further explain, here is how I break down the teams playing this weekend:

"The Top Tier" - These are the teams that either are in with a win or are knocking on the door. They are ranked 1-6:

Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Florida State, Ohio State, Baylor.

"The Challengers" - These are the teams that are playing against the above teams in conference championships or pseudo-championships. They are ranked between 7 and 16:

Missouri, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, and Kansas State.

"The Sideline Teams" -- These are the teams that are ranked between #1 and #16 (Mizzou's position) but are in the clubhouse, already. They are ranked between 8 and 15:

Michigan State, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia, UCLA.

"The Wildcard" -- This is the only team playing in any game involving the above teams that isn't involved in the discussion, but could play a role. If this were a card deck, they'd be the joker.

Iowa State

With that all in mind, the important concept to know here is that the goal for Mizzou, or really, Georgia Tech or Wisconsin, is chaos. In said chaos, the key is clearing out ONE spot in the Top 4 that would force the committee to talk about teams like Missouri.

Before we do that, however, here are some things to keep in mind:

1. None of the "sideline teams", in my view, have any chance of rising to the Playoff. Primarily, of course, because they are idle. Even if the teams ahead of them all lost, the teams below them could leap them by beating the teams ahead of them.

2. Oregon or Arizona is likely in, no matter who wins that game.

3. If any of the teams *except Oregon* in the top 4 lose, and either Baylor or Ohio State win, Baylor or Ohio State will replace that team. I believe the committee placed Arizona at #7 so if they beat Oregon, they could make a case for leapfrogging them into the Top 4.

4. For Baylor to move past TCU, Baylor needs to demolish K-State. However, if Wisconsin won and Florida State lost, for instance, I do think you'd see Baylor get in along with TCU.

So, back to the Tigers. At #16, even with a win against Alabama, is way too far behind, it seems. But, what would make the committee actually be forced to consider us, given their emphasis on conference champions?

Step 1. Mizzou beats Alabama by two touchdowns. In my view, this, in itself, regardless of any other result, would vault Mizzou past the "Sideline teams". I think most would agree we'd obviously move past Georgia, UCLA and probably Ole Miss, but I think it would vault us past Mississippi State and Michigan State. Remember, the committee is ranking everyone, and they've said conference championships matter. So, let's assume that occurs, and we do this. We go from #16 to #11, virtually.

Step 2. Because Mizzou beat Alabama so soundly, instead of in a tight game, the committee is forced to discuss moving Mizzou past Alabama, even though both would only have two losses. Mizzou would have the conference title, on a neutral field, and did so in resounding fashion. So, we go from #11 to #10.

Step 3. This is the key step. TCU loses to Iowa State. TCU goes tumbling down the ratings and now has a loss just as bad as Indiana, and has no conference championship. So, we go from #10 to #9.

Step 4. Oregon clobbers Arizona in the Pac 12 title game. Oregon shows that the first game was a complete fluke and blows out Arizona. The Wildcats are now with three losses, and while their overall resume is probably still better than ours, their best win was cancelled out by losing to the same team. Mizzou, who remember beat Alabama by two touchdowns in this scenario, is now #8.

Meanwhile, Oregon is the clear #1.

Step 5. Baylor beats #9 K-State, making themselves the clear Big 12 Champ. Baylor is now clearly in the Top 4, and K-State how has three losses, albeit to TCU, Baylor and Auburn. However, they are virtually third in the Big 12 and were only 7 spots ahead of us. They have no marquee wins -- which we would with a win against Alabama - and so we nip them too. We're now #7.

Meanwhile, Baylor is now #2 or #3, but in the playoff.

Step 6. Florida State beats Georgia Tech handily. The Seminoles, a team that has squeaked by all season, this time wins quite easily. Georgia Tech, currently #11, drops a third game and disappoints. Only being 5 spots ahead of Missouri, who won their conference title game, the Yellow Jackets also slip behind the Tigers. Mizzou is now #6. How could we not be?

Meanwhile, Florida State is now #3, possibly #2, but is clearly in the playoff. We just have one spot left.

What's left on the table?

Oh, that's right. Wisconsin vs. Ohio State. Wisconsin, who lost to a bad Northwestern team, is playing against Ohio State, who lost to a bad Virginia Tech team. Two champions of two divisions that are every bit as bad as the supposed bad SEC East. Also, Wisconsin, at #13, is the one "challenger" closest to us. Also, they are playing #5, while we are playing #1.

Now, if Ohio State wins this game, Missouri clearly moves past Wisconsin, but Ohio State would be in the Top 4, taking the final spot, and Missouri would be out -- as would Alabama. We'd be #5, in this scenario. (Remember, Alabama lost to us by two touchdowns, otherwise they might only slip to #4).

But, what if Wisconsin wins, but only because Ohio State's third-string quarterback is terrible? What if Wisconsin wins 13-3 because Ohio State can't score, but Wisconsin doesn't exactly run up the scoreboard, either? So that it's clearly a result of Ohio State being terrible without a good QB, not due to Wisconsin playing well?

Then we have a two loss Ohio State team, without it's QB, who just lost to Wisconsin, who didn't play very well. Ohio State has a loss to Virginia Tech, at home. You clearly can't put them in the playoff. especially since they lost to Wisconsin. But if not them, who?

- You can't put in Arizona, because they were #7 and LOST.

- You can't put in K-State, because they were #9 and LOST.

- You can't put in TCU -- for heaven's sake, they lost to IOWA STATE.

- You can't put in Georgia Tech - because they were #11 and LOST.

So, you're really left with three choices -- Missouri, Alabama, or Wisconsin.

Do you put in Alabama, who just lost by two touchdowns to Missouri, on a neutral field? We talked about that. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe we still don't pass Alabama, despite beating them by two touchdowns.

Do you put in two-loss Wisconsin, who lost to Northwestern, has no signature regular season wins aside from MAYBE Nebraska and Minnesota, neither of whom are ranked anymore, and barely squeaked by a hobbled Ohio State team? They'd still be Conference Champs..but very weak in comparison to a surging Missouri. Maybe

Or, do you go for a true crazy hail mary and go with #8 Michigan State, who really only beat Nebraska, and whose two losses are to Oregon and a healthy Ohio State, as a Big 10 Replacement?

Or do you put in Missouri, who has two losses, who did lose to Indiana and Georgia, but also just WON THE SEC by beating Alabama by two touchdowns on a neutral field? Maybe.

It's unlikely, I know. It' would require a loss by TCU to Iowa State, after all, and us clobbering Alabama, and a specific result in the Ohio State - Wisconsin game.

But, it is a scenario that would make them sweat. It would be the definition of chaos.

So, with that, two words:

GO CYCLONES!

:)

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