Rock M Nation: All Posts by Sam SnellingA Blog for Ol' Mizzouhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50319/rmn-fav.png2024-03-28T12:43:57-05:00https://www.rockmnation.com/authors/sam-snelling/rss2024-03-28T12:43:57-05:002024-03-28T12:43:57-05:00Mizzou Basketball 2024 Transfer Tracker
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<figcaption>Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation</figcaption>
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<p>It’s transfer portal season already, and while we don’t expect a ton of movement we do expect Mizzou to be very active. </p> <p id="TKy2Yq"><strong>Update - March 28</strong>: Missouri has been listed as having been in contact with<a href="https://twitter.com/portal_updates/status/1773239482717802679?t=0vpJlDx9HmSpxbMWA54ZTQ&s=19"> B.J. Freeman</a>, a wing from Milwaukee, along with Oklahoma wing Otega Oweh. While there hasn’t been reported contact yet since <a href="https://twitter.com/TiptonEdits/status/1773402184454906199">Myles Rice just entered the portal</a>, we fully expect Mizzou to make a call or two. So I’m putting him on the list. </p>
<p id="ocEEHq"><strong>Update - March 27:</strong> Zeke Mayo, a Lawrence, Kan., native and South Dakota State guard entered the transfer portal and has reported contact from Missouri. Butler point guard DJ Davis also reported contact with Mizzou. The Tigers reportedly reached out to Milwaukee wing B.J. Freeman. Plus Marcus Foster, a combo guard from Furman, committed to Xavier. </p>
<p id="gm9tvT"><strong>Update - March 26: </strong>A report from On3 delves into Sam Alexis <a href="https://x.com/JamieShaw5/status/1772632427535442420?s=20">potential destinations for visits</a>. Missouri is not among them. Meanwhile, the Tigers have been linked to Northern Kentucky transfer Marques Warrick and George Mason transfer Keyshawn Hall. Iowa point guard Tony Perkins reported Mizzou interest. </p>
<p id="9YFZFV"><strong>Update - March 18-24: </strong>Missouri struck quickly during the first week of the portal season by <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/mizzou-basketball-recruiting/2024/3/19/24106137/missouri-tigers-basketball-recruiting-jacob-crews-commits">adding Jacob Crews</a>, a jumbo wing from UT-Martin, to space out the floor. Taking Crews probably renders moot any contact with UAPB’s Kylen Milton and Iona’s Greg Gordon. The Tigers also nosed around a couple of big men and combo guards. It’s worth putting a pin in that Michigan’s Tarris Reed and Pepperdine’s Jevon Porter are seeking new homes. Both are Show-Me State natives with some upside, and we expect them to have first dibs on spots. As for point guard, that stall at the market hasn’t put out its best wares, but Furman’s JP Pegues is a genuine PNR operator that can shoot off the bounce. </p>
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<p id="PWWPmO">The transfer portal is all the rage these days. It’s the hottest place to be in all of college basketball. </p>
<p id="f0iOKz">This post is strictly about which prospects Missouri has made contact with. We will have a Roster primer coming as well. I will link it here once it’s published. We’ll be frequently updating this post with the most recent contacts. </p>
<p id="54WrK0">So this will only contain who has reported interest from Mizzou, and then updates with where those prospects have committed when they do. For additional intel on which prospects we expect Missouri to be targeting and pursuing, we will host that in our new <a href="https://rockm.plus">RockM+</a> <a href="https://rockm.plus/forums">Forums</a> There you’ll also find a full list of players Matt Watkins and Matt Harris have scouted.</p>
<p id="pilgnC">The portal officially opens for everyone on Monday, March 18th. We expect Mizzou to be primarily seeking point guards, combo guards, and some interior size. Each prospect will be listed with the most recent publicly reported level of interest which could include initial contact, hosted on a visit, final schools, or committed. </p>
<h2 id="Ie3koj">POINT GUARDS</h2>
<ul>
<li id="DiIIvf">JP Pegues, Furman: <a href="https://x.com/247HSHoops/status/1771573588794974651?s=20">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="sJtmkb">Tony Perkins, Iowa: <a href="https://twitter.com/theportalreport/status/1772750071563784549?s=46&t=kOawWaKexlPmtLCuZv-7ZQ">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="xIUJIV">Zeke Mayo, South Dakota State: <a href="https://twitter.com/portal_updates/status/1772997950337118359">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="0Aoaw6">Myles Rice, Washington State: <a href="https://twitter.com/TiptonEdits/status/1773402184454906199">sooooon</a>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="Ll94ir">COMBO GUARDS</h2>
<ul>
<li id="JbVFz2">Camren Hunter, Central Arkansas: <a href="https://twitter.com/theportalreport/status/1768786949752435110?s=46&t=H9MNvQdA9whzzdYwIVOIKg">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="Etuax8">Marques Warrick, Northern Kentucky: <a href="https://twitter.com/ThePortalReport/status/1772689917392392408?s=20">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="zlRDv1">Marcus Foster, Furman: <a href="https://twitter.com/TiptonEdits/status/1773058481811014020">committed to Xavier</a>
</li>
<li id="0uvIH4">D.J. Davis, Butler: <a href="https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1773000829324177435">contact</a>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="ZmgUd4">WINGS</h2>
<ul>
<li id="xz3HXS">Jacob Crews, UT-Martin: <a href="https://twitter.com/RockMNation/status/1770169058446467444">COMMITTED to Missouri</a>
</li>
<li id="MJtFZh">Kylen Milton, Arkansas Pine Bluff: <a href="https://twitter.com/247HSHoops/status/1770117565525692430">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="8XtxD6">Greg Gordon, Iona: <a href="https://twitter.com/ThePortalReport/status/1771210864470982897">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="WY9K6X">Keyshawn Hall, George Mason: <a href="https://twitter.com/247HSHoops/status/1772688899476701332?s=20">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="kt0f0R">B.J. Freeman, Milwaukee: <a href="https://x.com/portal_updates/status/1773239482717802679?s=20">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="8dOb5U">Otega Oweh, Oklahoma: <a href="https://twitter.com/dylan_lutey/status/1773031913680162837">contact</a>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="jZcBtm">COMBO FORWARDS</h2>
<ul>
<li id="we78BB">Jevon Porter, Pepperdine</li>
<li id="UdU2oc">Ansley Almonor, Fairleigh Dickinson: <a href="https://x.com/JamieShaw5/status/1770442488085418437?s=20">contact</a>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="XyLscl">POSTS</h2>
<ul>
<li id="52aMGq">Amari Williams, Drexel: <a href="https://x.com/TiptonEdits/status/1769860472797364609?s=20">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="P8Nqhf">Tarris Reed, Michigan: <a href="https://x.com/TiptonEdits/status/1770108707222753494?s=20">contact</a>
</li>
<li id="qYFy7j">Sam Alexis, Chattanooga: <a href="https://x.com/JamieShaw5/status/1770812484900823347?s=20">contact</a>
</li>
</ul>
<p id="ynb7d9">This list attempted to note any reported interaction MU had with a transfer target. However, the nature of the portal means there are likely contacts that never become known publicly. We will attempt to keep our accounting updated more information became available.</p>
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https://www.rockmnation.com/mizzou-basketball-recruiting/2024/3/17/24103298/mizzou-basketball-2024-transfer-trackerSam Snelling2024-03-24T05:00:00-05:002024-03-24T05:00:00-05:00Pourover: The changing face of college basketball
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<img alt="Oakland v Kentucky" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/svt6jZfmN4urgVQgTY0x279Kwwo=/0x0:3478x2319/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73229088/2102872801.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Is the John Calipari method cooked at Kentucky?</p> <p id="WjP9De">It could easily be argued that Kentucky is the biggest brand in college basketball. If not the biggest, certainly one of the biggest. And for the better part of two decades the face of the program has been John Calipari. </p>
<p id="PZXw8w">In a lot of ways, Cal is perfect for Kentucky. He’s loud and arrogant, he’s an awesome recruiter, a master at managing personalities, and he wins a lot. Well, he won a lot. And now he still wins a good amount, but not as much as most Kentucky fans think he should win. </p>
<p id="83BseH">From 2010 to 2019 Cal and the ‘Cats finished 17th or better in KenPom, with 7 top 10 finishes and an NCAA Tournament in every year but one in 2013 when Nerlens Noel tore his ACL when Kentucky was still in the top 20 in KenPom. They fell to 55th by the end of the season after a 1st round NIT exit. It was as good of a 10 year run as there was in College Basketball. In the 2019-20 season, Kentucky wasn’t considered a national title contender but they were still atop the SEC at the end of conference play with three players who would go on to be drafted after the season on the roster. Then COVID shut down and flipped college sports on its head. </p>
<p id="MgId06">Things have been reeling a bit since. Kentucky is 1-3 in the NCAA tournament, 80-46 overall (an average of just 20-12). Pre-2020 Cal averaged 2.9 1st round draft picks per year and 2.1 lottery picks. Since then just 1.25 1st round picks, and just two lottery picks total. And one of those guys never played at Kentucky (Shaedon Sharpe). </p>
<p id="fKbPaI">Things have clearly changed. It’s changed so much that it prompted Jay Wright to push back on the Calipari method of leaning hard into elite level freshman to keep UK atop the college basketball world: </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">"The era of taking these young freshmen and trying to play against older players is over," - Jay Wright. <a href="https://t.co/xvrR2toEZx">pic.twitter.com/xvrR2toEZx</a></p>— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) <a href="https://twitter.com/awfulannouncing/status/1771158837506023601?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 22, 2024</a>
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<p id="7fu37l">For some context here, the Oakland sharp-shooter who made 10 threes against the Wildcats in the opening round upset, Jack Gohlke, is 24 years old. Tyrese Maxey, Cal’s highest drafted player off the 2020 roster is currently finishing up his 4th season for the Philadelphia 76ers and is 23 years old. Gohlke is older than, competed against, and graduated high school the same year as former UK star Tyler Herro. Herro is in his 5th season in the NBA with the Miami Heat. </p>
<p id="0Jvl3H">In some ways, Jay Wright is correct. If you’re going to point to where Calipari has struggled it’s on multiple fronts. One being that his roster construction no longer featured a list of the best overall talent in college hoops. COVID impacted player development so incoming freshman production was harder to project. The transfer portal also changed college recruiting in a huge way. Then NIL of course changed it further, and now the NCAA is no longer enforcing their two time transfer rule. </p>
<p id="jFLCEQ">Mix all that in with the NCAA then giving everyone who played in the 2020-21 season a blank slate for that season, and you have a time period from 2020 to current where things aren’t what they used to be. I would also point out that when Cal first landed in the SEC it was a very different league. Hoops was on a far back burner with head coaches like Trent Johnson, Jeff Lebo, John Pelphrey, Rick Stansbury, and Darrin Horn. The only real competition at the time was Billy Donovan at Florida. Kevin Stallings was considered one of the top coaches in the league. </p>
<p id="V20U9g">The league has since pumped money into its basketball programs and Cal is competing against Rick Barnes, Nate Oats, Bruce Pearl, Chris Beard, and Eric Musselman. </p>
<p id="AQXYSd">But while everyone else was focusing on getting old this season, keeping with the theme of the last few years, Cal embraced his previous philosophy and loaded up his roster with youth. </p>
<p id="scE682">And here’s the thing... Kentucky was really good this year. Instead of a roster built on defense and rim protection, Cal rolled with his youngsters on the perimeter and ran scores up. His normal interior size was missing early when Aaron Bradshaw and Zvonimir Ivisic dealt with separate issues of getting on the court, and Cal went small and his offense flourished like it rarely has. He adjusted. They won! The defense was leaky, but moving back to his philosophy of just leaning hard on talent worked. </p>
<p id="Tle02T">Until they lost to Oakland. </p>
<p id="o1N6Jk">A team made up almost entirely of juniors and seniors made 15 of 31 threes en route to the upset of the Wildcats. A team that shoots 35% on the season made 48%. Meanwhile Kentuck shot 41% from outside on the season and made just 32%. </p>
<p id="G34mes">But this is clearly an indictment of Cal and his system of talented youngsters, and not an outlier shooting night? Cal reached into the portal for his best team since the COVID year and that team led by Oscar Tshiebwe and Sahvir Wheeler lost to St. Peter’s in the first round. </p>
<p id="16hpZT">Maybe the problem is Cal. Maybe he’s past his expiration date in Lexington. But I’m not going to be too quick to judge the roster building of a team that nabbed a protected seed in the NCAA Tournament and a protected seed in the SEC Tourmanent when multiple SEC teams built through the portal and did far worse. </p>
<p id="Tc7727">I would hesitate to insist on coaches moving towards experience if the cost is talent. Especially as the COVID years are coming to an end soon. Jack Gohlke was only able to take a flamethrower to the NCAA Tournament thanks to an extra COVID year. Jay Wright is correct on a lot of things, and he’s correct that NIL is going to sway more fringe NBA prospects to stay in college. But Cal didn’t win big at UK with fringe NBA talents. He won big with John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jamal Murray, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Guys who became NBA All Stars. </p>
<p id="6Eq5zI">Maybe Cal’s time is coming to an end, but his system only stopped working when he stopped landing the truly elite dudes. The factors which followed the COVID season hit Cal and the UK system harder than most. But how you win isn’t necessarily getting old, it helps raise your floor. But to take the ceiling off you still need high level guys. </p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2024/3/24/24108942/pourover-the-changing-face-of-college-basketballSam Snelling2024-03-23T05:00:00-05:002024-03-23T05:00:00-05:00What to watch on Saturday
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: NCAA Tournament First Round-McNeese vs Gonzaga" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7tGs3R7KaYqVmFjgPZkCUMCayvs=/0x0:4800x3200/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73227639/usa_today_22831384.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>NCAA Tournament Round of 32, Wrestling, Softball, Gymnastics, Baseball? </p> <p id="C7XncN">I think you all know what I’ll be watching. The NCAA Tournament is my favorite event of the year. Wall to wall basketball is basically a dream scenario for me. </p>
<p id="bO3CRC">However, I realize I’m a weirdo and probably am not like most people. I will be tuned in for basketball. Rooting for Gonzaga today. And trying to put the SEC failures behind me. But if hoops isn’t your thing and Mizzou is, then there’s a heckuva lineup today.</p>
<ul>
<li id="mkzunX">
<strong>Mizzou Wrestling</strong>: Follow Matthew Gustafson’s excellent coverage of the NCAA Session V with his Live Threads here, and <a href="https://twitter.com/M_Gustafson27">he’s on twitter also</a>. Session V starts at 11 am, Session VI starts at 6pm. You can catch the entire event on ESPN+. </li>
<li id="aV309H">
<strong>Mizzou Softball</strong>: The 16th ranked Tigers take on third ranked LSU after <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/mizzou-softball/2024/3/22/24109215/no-16-mizzou-softball-defeats-no-3-lsu-for-series-opening-win-march-22">a big upset in game one</a>. That game is at 2pm on SEC Network plus. Brandon will have coverage.</li>
<li id="Akz0jz">
<strong>Mizzou Gymnastics</strong>: Karen is tuned in for the SEC Championships in New Orleans on SEC Network plus. They start at 2:30 pm. Her preview will be out at 8am CT. </li>
<li id="ofUkpD">
<strong>Mizzou Baseball:</strong> The Tigers host top 25 Kentucky in game number two of the series. They dropped the opener 9-4 yesterday in 11 innings. This game will be on SEC Network plus. </li>
</ul>
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<p id="YoAVpS"><em>RockMNation has affiliate partnerships. These do not influence editorial content, though RockMNation may earn commissions for products purchased via affiliate links. Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See </em><a href="https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/87637?wpcid=163239&wpcn=howtowatchcontent&wpscn=CFB&wpsrc=Vox"><em><strong>draftkings.com/sportsbook</strong></em></a><em> for details.</em></p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2024/3/23/24109424/what-to-watch-on-saturdaySam Snelling2024-03-19T09:30:00-05:002024-03-19T09:30:00-05:00Scholarship Math: Just how many spots are the Tigers looking to fill?
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/B3XQHAE12Xb89mJ6UqtpcT7nOIQ=/0x0:3829x2553/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73217696/CAL_2794.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation</figcaption>
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<p>We dive in on the roster.</p> <p id="DSeGdY">The basketball season isn’t over for everyone, but it’s over for Missouri. And it has been for days, or maybe weeks. </p>
<p id="su42ii">I hope by now you’ve read <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/2024/3/14/24100351/r-i-p-mizzou-basketball-2023-24-recruiting-spring-transfer-portal">R.I.P. Mizzou Basketball</a>, and the season ending <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/study-hall/2024/3/15/24100875/mizzou-basketball-stats-analysis-reaction-study-hall-georgia-bulldogs">Study Hall</a>. Also make sure you check out <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/2024/3/19/24047338/wrapping-up-the-2023-24-missouri-basketball-season">Parker’s season wrap up</a> which went up this morning. But what we haven’t really talked much in depth about for a while now is the roster situation. So let’s do that now. </p>
<p id="fMG6uq">Here’s our most recent roster graphic:</p>
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<img alt="mizzou basketball roster count 12-28-2023" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5I-zxrgHfzQq9m60uG07o5tzYqk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25191638/mizzou_basketball_roster_count_12282023.png">
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<p id="2jf42D">Now clearly this shows what the roster looks like and not what the scholarship situation looks like, but with NIL these days the scholarship situation is always far more malleable. For example this past season we know Mabor Majak, Jackson Francois, J.V. Brown, and Danny Stephens were for sure preferred walk-ons. But that leaves 14 other guys where you aren’t completely sure. Maybe Kaleb Brown, maybe someone else. It doesn’t really matter, which is my overall point. </p>
<p id="2M8taz">Instead of looking at 13 scholarships, we’re more looking at 15 spots with up to 20 total including walk-ons. I don’t think you go over 20. </p>
<p id="WddBdm">So then looking at column two, there are twelve players who were on the roster this past season who can return for another. That’s NOT including two seniors who played less than the allowed amount and could be eligible for a medical redshirt: John Tonje, Caleb Grill. It does include multiple players whose eligibility may be fuzzy, like Carralero-Martin, Majak, and even Curt Lewis. After all the latter three were featured in “Senior Videos” put out on Twitter by @MizzouHoops, and they each took part in Senior day ceremonies. As did John Tonje, Noah Carter, Connor Vanover, Caleb Grill, Sean East, and Nick Honor. The last three have yet to be featured in a video. So read into that what you want. </p>
<p id="eBFKKE">Like I said, murky. </p>
<p id="vgWsDp">What we know is East, Honor, Vanover, and Carter don’t have a choice. They’re done. </p>
<p id="Cv0m4J">Everyone else has some kind of chance to be on the roster next year. That’s still a lot of guys. </p>
<p id="8asX9E">So the next few weeks are going to be telling. We’re told most of the exit interviews with players should be completed by this week. And for each guy out, you can expect another guy in. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/86bjv_5XeYSeizuuu7ZI8yJN3Yo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25273783/CAL_6654.jpg">
<cite>Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="3gp5xl">Count to 15, be comfortable getting close</h3>
<p id="delUsL">Five incoming freshmen are locks to be on the roster next year. You expect three soon to be sophomores there as well. Plus Tamar Bates. That’s 9. Aidan Shaw would make it 10. We’re pretty confident in the last five names there to basically have a choice if they want to return or not. </p>
<p id="jYFFih">That leaves Zeus, Curt, Kaleb, Tonje, and Grill all in the middle gray area. And it would seem with the other 10 in place, keeping all five is out of the question if Missouri is hoping to have a better season than they just had. </p>
<p id="m3lPuV">With exit interviews, the coaching staff and players have the opportunity to figure out if everyone is on the same page. It’s always possible during these meetings that someone comes out of them with a different feeling about their place moving forward. Whether that’s wanting a different role than what is being offered (see Mohamed Diarra last year) or coming to the realization that they may get squeezed out of playing time with so much youth coming to the roster (see many examples, but a good one is Torrence Watson a few years ago). </p>
<p id="6LM2ZZ">There are a lot of reasons any player will transfer but they can usually be boiled down into those two categories... that and money. Of course NIL is a factor as well. Now that there’s nothing preventing multiple time transfers there’s always the threat. </p>
<h3 id="YBSxao">What does Missouri need?</h3>
<p id="HjpM9I">Ball handling, scoring, shooting, rebounding. Lots. </p>
<p id="N3UZBs">But they need <em>at least</em> two starters, possibly three. Shoot, maybe four! </p>
<p id="lPjHlx">Some of that depends on who returns. Missouri started 12 different players, 8 of whom have a chance to return next year. Three who started double digit games: Shaw, Butler, Bates. Butler started 13 games, Shaw started 10. </p>
<p id="5URt8v">Tamar is the only one who started games and stood out while starting. In his 25 starts he averaged 15.2 points per game in 31 minutes per game. In Butler’s 13 starts he averaged 15 minutes and 2.4 points. Shaw averaged 19.5 minutes and 4.6 points in his 10 starts. So neither is a guy you want to slot into a guaranteed spot. </p>
<p id="GD6k1m">Both Caleb Grill and John Tonje were expected to be starters when they arrived, and both started games before being shut down. Grill started 5 of the 9 games he played in, Tonje 4 of the 8 he played in. Trent Pierce also started a few games.</p>
<p id="Qxb7hP">With only Tamar Bates as a surefire level starter it should be a priority to boost the top line of the roster. Gambling that anyone else takes a leap leaves a lot to chance. I’m sure there are some combinations where Shaw or Butler (or Pierce) improve, after all they’re young enough. Or Grill or Tonje return to the roster and health. Making a gamble on one of those things working out makes some sense, on both? Less so. </p>
<p id="lg9N5t">So three starting level players, two who can handle the ball. And one with some size, please. </p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2024/3/19/24103547/scholarship-math-just-how-many-spots-are-the-tigers-looking-to-fillSam Snelling2024-03-16T05:00:00-05:002024-03-16T05:00:00-05:00Mizzou Football Spring Game: How to watch
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-16ucu3QTizi24H6jyrP4DLi1GE=/0x0:4070x2713/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73211244/CAL_5942.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s spring time (kinda) get on in here and watch some football!</p> <p id="tuD1cv">The one football game we have to get excited about until the real season arrives next fall. Okay, okay it’s next summer, albeit late summer. </p>
<p id="7e9mbU">Still, no football until then. So enjoy your Black and Gold matchup. We’ll have full coverage from the beat guys, and Cal will be there to get shots. You can head on over to <a href="https://rockm.plus">RockM.plus</a> where Chad Moller and others will be manning the live thread with instant commentary. Basically coverage everywhere!</p>
<p id="bxwAg5">If you’re not into watching exhibition/scrimmage football, there is a wealth of College Basketball happening as we’re into Saturday of Championship week. Either way I think spending the day watching sports sounds good. </p>
<h2 id="mkzunX">Black vs Gold football: Time, Location</h2>
<p id="9Zu4yh"><strong>TIME: </strong>1:00 p.m. CT</p>
<p id="e0yOA3"><strong>DATE: </strong>Saturday, March 16, 2024</p>
<p id="f0QJsv"><strong>LOCATION: </strong>Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium; Columbia, MO</p>
<h2 id="8iGyPR">Black vs Gold football: Follow the game, TV Channel</h2>
<p id="IG3u3h"><strong>TELEVISION: </strong>ESPN+ / SEC Network+</p>
<p id="CYdYih"><strong>STREAM</strong>: WatchESPN</p>
<p id="Wm0Cg5"><strong>TWITTER</strong>: <a href="https://twitter.com/MizzouFootball">@MizzouFootball</a></p>
<p id="FQRsqL"><strong>FACEBOOK</strong>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/MizzouFootballShowMe/">MizzouFootballShowMe</a></p>
<p id="bTkiNY"><em><strong>ESPN+</strong></em>: <a href="http://go.web.plus.espn.com/c/482924/555830/9070?sharedid=RockMNation">ROCKMNATION</a></p>
<h2 id="8b3gjM">Black vs Gold football: Betting odds, predictions</h2>
<p id="cHo1mR">As of Friday evening, Gold is a 1.5-point underdog to Black, according to <a href="https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/87637?wpcid=163239&wpcn=howtowatchcontent&wpscn=CFB&wpsrc=Vox">DraftKing’s Sportsbook</a>. The total points (over/under) is 57... I’m kidding, there’s no line on this game. All betting is purely for stupity purposes so have fun with it. </p>
<p id="UyRUbB">If you’re not into watching Football, there is a host of hoops on as we’re nearing the end of my favorite week of the year, Championship week. </p>
<div id="XDzrsX"><div data-anthem-component="table:12280778"></div></div>
<p id="YoAVpS"><em>RockMNation has affiliate partnerships. These do not influence editorial content, though RockMNation may earn commissions for products purchased via affiliate links. Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See </em><a href="https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/87637?wpcid=163239&wpcn=howtowatchcontent&wpscn=CFB&wpsrc=Vox"><em><strong>draftkings.com/sportsbook</strong></em></a><em> for details.</em></p>
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https://www.rockmnation.com/2024/3/16/24102423/mizzou-football-spring-game-how-to-watch-infoSam Snelling2024-03-15T07:00:00-05:002024-03-15T07:00:00-05:00Study Hall: Georgia 64, Mizzou 59
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<img alt="study hall 2022" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Gb5nL39BcidudccsGDqtTZTRjvs=/109x0:1261x768/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73209004/Study_Hall_2022___Gates_2.0.png" />
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<p>Then the lights went out...</p> <p id="Ebq5lU">Our last Study Hall of the season, thankfully. It’s been a bit of a slog. If you haven’t already please read the <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/2024/3/14/24100351/r-i-p-mizzou-basketball-2023-24-recruiting-spring-transfer-portal">R.I.P. Mizzou Basketball 2023-24</a> piece I wrote yesterday. </p>
<aside id="LOAHGH"><div data-anthem-component="actionbox" data-anthem-component-data='{"title":"Sign up today for Rock M+!","description":"Support the best Mizzou Podcast on the ‘net, RockMRadio!","label":"Sign Up Today!","url":"https://rockm.plus/"}'></div></aside><p id="qAO0Jo">There still seems to be a misunderstanding about the Luck Factor I mentioned again yesterday, and I’m not sure why. As this is an analytically focused series, it’s important that we understand analytics as a starting point. There’s a reason I have many of the basics listed below on each post. When we say Missouri is an unlucky team, we aren’t implying they’re a good team. Luck is basically measured by actual record versus expected record. Variance is a key here, because variance is built into these models. </p>
<p id="NMe2qe">Variance is a team that shoots 33% from three point range on the season shooting 41.4% on a given night. Then on the same night, your 30% shooting team shoots 19% instead. That’s variance, and that’s considered poor luck. Expected range of results versus actual results. </p>
<p id="y8r8Bk">We expect variance to happen. It just rarely happens to the same tune and cost the same team game after game after game. The adage “even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while” is precisely what we’re talking about here with Mizzou and their luck. </p>
<p id="6IjbTg">Against Georgia, Mizzou looked like they were going to blind squirrel this thing and finally find the nut. With 3:38 to go Sean East II scored on a layup to cap a 6-0 run. This was the kind of late run the Tigers had never been able to find over the previous 19 games. The run put them up 7. Hopeless Mizzou fans felt an unfamiliar twinge in their side... could this be it?</p>
<p id="IyJZ2T">LOL, no of course not! Georgia would cut it to 5 on a quick bucket. Then a Nick Honor missed jumper led to a foul on Russell Tchewa who made a free throw to cut it to four. Then the backbreaker... Noah Carter inbounded the ball and it was stolen and passed to R.J. Melendez for a quick layup. The lead was 2. That’s all it took. The goodwill of the 6-0 run gone, and momentum was back to the Bulldogs. Missouri went home. From a 7-point lead with 3:38 left, to the lights going out on the season.</p>
<h1 id="TFpKHR">Team Stats</h1>
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<img alt="2024 study hall georgia" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/d1_FvKeHJzoSDQ-7_g-okqngDmw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25336052/32_UGa_Game_Box.png">
</figure>
<ul>
<li id="Uy9GiX">
<strong>If those three-point shooting numbers above sounded familiar</strong>: it was intended. On a night Mizzou really could have used a few extra threes, they only made four. Even with a chance to tie the game and Georgia fouling them left and right, Gates set up a great sideline play and freed Nick Honor who kicked it out quickly to Noah Carter who was open and ready to shoot. He missed, continuing a string of misses to finish the game. </li>
<li id="boQbl9">
<strong>The PPS here stands out</strong>: in particular because Georgia didn’t turn the ball over much. It’s even wilder when you consider they were just 38.5% from inside the arc. The interior defense did its job! </li>
<li id="If9BjD">
<strong>But the Tigers also got crushed in BCI, while being terrific on the glass</strong>: leave it to this years Tigers to lose the game in expected ways while doing things during the game they rarely do like rebound and defend the rim while not taking care of the ball. </li>
</ul>
<h1 id="JHenhD">Player Stats</h1>
<h3 id="SChsHG">Your Trifecta: Connor Vanover, Tamar Bates, Nick Honor</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="2024 study hall georgia" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hJsYHygggKeELVIuF0CuPqzqMd0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25336054/32_UGa_Player_Box.png">
</figure>
<p id="RiOBLb"><em>On the season: Sean East II 56, Tamar Bates 38, Noah Carter 32, Nick Honor 25, Connor Vanover 9, Aidan Shaw 7, Caleb Grill 6, Anthony Robinson II 5, Trent Pierce 3, Jesus Carralero-Martin 2, Jordan Butler 1</em></p>
<p id="p3di8L">If you want any more evidence of Mizzou’s poor luck* look no further than Sean East II being elite nearly all year long, and being pretty awful against Georgia. He finished the season with a 113 Offensive Rating, with 9 games under the 100 mark. This was his 4th game with a rating in the 70s, and his second-worst performance overall. If East plays like East has played for most of the year this is probably a Missouri win. Instead, he made just three shots and turned the ball over 5 times. This isn’t meant to denigrate East, after all he’s been the only guy with any level of consistency... he just picked a rotten time to have an off night. </p>
<p id="joQLRo">But hey, Connor Vanover went out on a high! He’s been in and out of the lineup for a variety of reasons, but when Vanover has played he’s generally made a positive impact. Vanover is what he is, and when he’s playing hard he’s really good around the rim and clearly impacted play for Georgia to the point where their only hope of scoring was hitting threes. Which they did, unfortunately. </p>
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<img alt="2024 study hall georgia" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DD0sbEf0-TN-JyS9PgphgSCzObs=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25336056/32_UGa_Player__.png">
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<p id="tH05JD">It was clear that Gates decided at some point in the second half to just ride with his vets. He let East, Honor, Carter, and Bates run and give it their best shot. Only Honor took a rest in the second half. </p>
<p id="WxE4pQ">Bates was slightly passive, and none of them played an exemplary offensive game. Instead, they strung together a few buckets here and there and competed in the game. The returning three all had usage rates right around 25%, so basically with them playing as much as they were nearly three quarters of the possessions went through Honor, Carter, and East. </p>
<p id="Iat1ou">As I said in the RIP post, their effort is admirable but it’s also been part of the reason the team has struggled. Too much has been asked of guys who weren’t high-usage guys last season. Carter was the highest a year ago at 21%, but he also played closer to 53% of the minutes. Meanwhile, Honor was at 13%, East was at 19%. The production didn’t scale up, with the exception of East. And to reiterate, he had an off night. </p>
<p id="UD9ca9">That’s how you lose against Georgia. It’s how you lose a lot of games. The last 19. And 22 of the last 23. I’ve already put the dust cover on the season. So I’ll just say I’m looking forward to covering the transfer portal. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="SitoEx">
<p id="xvVzSd"><em><strong>True Shooting Percentage (TS%): </strong></em><em>Quite simply, this calculates a player’s shooting percentage while taking into account 2FG%, 3FG%, and FT%. The formula is Total Points / 2 * (FGA + (0.475+FTA)). The 0.475 is a Free Throw modifier. KenPomeroy and other College Basketball sites typically use 0.475, while the NBA typically uses 0.44. That’s basically what TS% is. A measure of scoring efficiency based on the number of points scored over the number of possessions in which they attempted to score, </em><a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball/2018/6/5/17428326/true-shooting-percentage-basketball-stats-why"><em><strong>more here.</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="HE3Yuz"><em><strong>Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%): </strong></em><em>This is similar to TS%, but takes 3-point shooting more into account. The formula is FGM + (0.5 * 3PM) / FGA</em></p>
<p id="oBZ6C6"><em>So think of TS% as scoring efficiency, and eFG% as shooting efficiency, </em><a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball/2018/6/5/17428326/true-shooting-percentage-basketball-stats-why"><em><strong>more here.</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="6qCUiW"><em><strong>Expected Offensive Rebounds: </strong></em><em>Measured based on the average rebounds a college basketball team gets on both the defensive and offensive end. This takes the overall number of missed shots (or shots available to be rebounded) and divides them by the number of offensive rebounds and compares them with the statistical average.</em></p>
<p id="syIhX3"><em><strong>AdjGS:</strong></em><em> A take-off of the Game Score metric (definition </em><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html"><em><strong>here</strong></em></a><em>) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual’s “score” for a given game. The “adjustment” in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game’s points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.</em></p>
<p id="c33Erk"><em><strong>%Min</strong></em><em>: This is easy, it’s the percentage of minutes a player played that were available to them. That would be 40 minutes, or 45 if the game goes to overtime.</em></p>
<p id="rXTyUz"><em><strong>Usage%</strong></em><em>: This “estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor” (</em><a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/"><em><strong>via sports-reference.com/cbb</strong></em></a><em>). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team’s offensive outcome.</em></p>
<p id="AiwF3Z"><em><strong>Offensive Rating (ORtg):</strong></em><em> Similar to Adjusted game score, but this looks at how many points per possession a player would score if they were averaged over 100 possessions. This combined with Usage Rate gives you a sense of impact on the floor.</em></p>
<p id="zJWCjw"><em><strong>IndPoss</strong></em><em>: This approximates how many possessions an individual is responsible for within the team’s calculated possessions.</em></p>
<p id="IHREFV"><em><strong>ShotRate%: </strong></em><em>This is the percentage of a team’s shots a player takes while on the floor.</em></p>
<p id="I5flkU"><em><strong>AstRate%: </strong></em><em>Attempts to estimate the number of assists a player has on teammates made field goals when he is on the floor. The formula is basically AST / (((MinutesPlayed / (Team MP / 5)) * Team FGM) - FGM).</em></p>
<p id="fBe2lL"><em><strong>TORate%</strong></em><em>: Attempts to estimate the number of turnovers a player commits in their individual possessions. The formula is simple: TO / IndPoss</em></p>
<p id="oTSgVX"><em><strong>Floor%</strong></em><em>: Via</em><a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/"><em><strong> sports-reference.com/cbb</strong></em></a><em>: Floor % answers the question, “When a Player uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?”. The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.</em></p>
<p id="iRM4Ua"><s><em><strong>Touches/Possession</strong></em></s><s><em>: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, touches attempt to estimate, “the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor.” Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you’ll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.</em></s></p>
<p id="rKN4Zm"><s><em>Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player “in an attacking position” passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.</em></s></p>
<p id="F8JvJc"><em>In attempting to update Study Hall, I’m moving away from Touches/Possession and moving into the Rates a little more. This is a little experimental so if there’s something you’d like to see let me know and I’ll see if there’s an easy visual way to present it.</em></p>
<p id="xdfuIa"></p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/study-hall/2024/3/15/24100875/mizzou-basketball-stats-analysis-reaction-study-hall-georgia-bulldogsSam Snelling2024-03-14T00:02:44-05:002024-03-14T00:02:44-05:00R.I.P. Mizzou Basketball 2023-24
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: SEC Conference Tournament First Round-Missouri vs Georgia" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2oaPsC9ZodUw5buccXBXtdSzxT0=/0x0:2927x1951/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73205919/usa_today_22766622.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It was certainly a strange season, and most of us are happy to move on from it. But let’s take a moment to reflect.</p> <p id="uG2xml">Virtually every basketball season ends with a loss. No matter the level, the playoffs determine that one team wins and one goes home until the last game. It’s not often they end with 19 consecutive losses, but that’s exactly how Missouri ended their 2023-24 campaign. </p>
<p id="PDO2Yo">I’ve never seen a season like this one before. We sat through three seasons of Kim Anderson, and even he found a way to win a few games a season. Cuonzo Martin threw together a weird roster on his way to getting fired a couple years ago and that team was awful and they still won 5 games. Missouri put themselves in position to win 12 times in their final 19 losses, and they came up empty each time. That’s really statistically improbable. Not impossible, but Mizzou just proved you could do it. </p>
<p id="qVlWUk">This isn’t a post to convince you this was a good team. They aren’t, or now weren’t. </p>
<p id="9pCyVe">But they deserved better. </p>
<p id="5uCgC9">They didn’t deserve to lose all those games. Sean East II, Noah Carter, Nick Honor. Those three especially. All played a big role on a team that won so many games in improbable fashion. They didn’t have to return for another season and chose to do so, hoping to continue to help Dennis Gates rebuild Missouri Basketball. Their reward was finishing last in the SEC, and last in <a href="http://KenPom.com">KenPom.com</a> ‘s luck factor, and bottoming out in what looked like a return to year zero. </p>
<p id="WYoYWv">Poor luck extended off the court as well. Gates’ first portal commitment in the spring, John Tonje, injured his foot and had offseason surgery. He never returned to form and looked uncomfortable on the floor whenever he entered the game. Then the second most heralded portal commitment, Caleb Grill, broke his wrist when the team was 7-2. Grill would not see the floor again. Top rated freshman Trent Pierce fell sick and missed 10 games. East missed two games. Connor Vanover missed 8 games. Only four players saw action in every one of 32 games: Carter, Honor, Aidan Shaw, and Tamar Bates. </p>
<p id="J7ZmDH">And you could tell as the roster rotations were a mess for most of the season. 12 different Tigers started a game, but only four cleared 40% of the minutes played. Portal additions, for the most part, didn’t live up to the billing. Leaving the returning players to pick up the slack, and that was far too big of an ask. They were all good role players on a good team, and ended up being good players on a bad team. </p>
<h3 id="NvE3lF">A doomed recipe, night after night</h3>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GrA7RSFYyKHLrux_NYG_48-k7Do=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25083001/CAL_3925.jpg">
<cite>Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation</cite>
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<p id="QJvz84">The lack of depth within the rotation led to Missouri finding itself competitive on most nights. But rarely deep enough, or offensively skilled enough to break through. They shot under 32% from three this year, good for 11th in the SEC. That’s just one year removed from leading the league in shooting. It was a recipe we saw unfold night after night. Mizzou would be within a possession or two late in the 2nd half, sometimes even leading. But inevitably they fell. It even happened against Georgia, in perhaps the most cruel fashion yet. Mizzou led 59-52 with 3:30 to play in the game. They would fail to score a point the rest of the way. They lost 64-59. </p>
<p id="28qmS2">For everything that went right last year, it turned around and went wrong this one. I said this last year in this same piece: <em>“But outside of the ending, I’m not sure you could really script a better start to the Dennis Gates era.”</em></p>
<p id="L40La7">If last season was fantasy, this season was horror. The script was flipped completely to the point where we’ve felt starved for good news over the better part of three months. Even Aaron Rowe’s commitment feels like a lifetime ago, and <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/mizzou-basketball-recruiting/2023/12/12/23997346/missouri-tigers-basketball-recruiting-aaron-rowe-commitment-2025-dennis-gates">it was December 12th</a>. </p>
<h2 id="YzrIaL">So what comes next?</h2>
<p id="QgGFso">A LOT of change. </p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lszhpJPZdeiNZIOLf16CVVh3-qo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24962264/Boateng___2023_10_02.jpeg">
<cite>Adidas/3SSB</cite>
<figcaption>Annor Boateng won’t solve the roster issues on his own.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="8tR8iE">Annor Boateng leads a top-five-ranked freshmen class to Columbia. He and four other four-star recruits land this summer. But outside of that, there are no guarantees. </p>
<p id="mKguVF">We know who will be gone for sure thanks to East, Honor, Carter, and Vanover all having expiring eligibility. They’re gone. But while Grill and Tonje are in their 5th year, both could apply for medical redshirts. Curt Lewis and Jesus Carralero-Martin both graduated and could transfer. Aidan Shaw could transfer, so could all three freshmen, and so could Bates. </p>
<p id="J2M9hp">The last five (Shaw, Anthony Robinson, Jordan Butler, Pierce and Bates) are all expected back. </p>
<p id="6fIaTJ">But in the transfer portal era, anything is possible. </p>
<p id="1FgIyH">Any of them could leave, none of them could leave, but what’s likely is some will and some won’t. </p>
<p id="sKM8BJ">The best info we have right now seems to be that the freshmen should all be back and Tamar will as well. It might just be up to Aidan on what he wants to do. But the exit interviews will happen soon and then if there are any surprises I would guess we’ll hear about them soon enough. </p>
<h3 id="k5XRvJ">None of that really changes what this program needs, however</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Basketball: Pepperdine at Gonzaga" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bPAC93SkCJuqVVmmSbkcNPVd6Uk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25335399/usa_today_22223769.jpg">
<cite>James Snook-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
<figcaption>Could Jevon Porter help solve Mizzou’s offensive woes?</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="R1KaEs">The transfer portal has made more rosters and sank more rosters than any other thing in College Basketball the last few seasons. Maneuver the portal well and you can turn around your fortunes in a blink. Miss and you can sink your season fast. </p>
<p id="RoGqFk">Dennis Gates knows what he has now. 8 young players in the freshmen and sophomore classes for next season, plus one reliable veteran scoring presence in Tamar Bates. It’s not easy going into the spring portal period knowing you need 3-4 starting-level players if you want to compete for an NCAA Tournament berth next season. But that’s the situation. </p>
<p id="LqKEWl">More than anything, this team needs players who can score the ball. They need to replace ball handling, and they need to find some shooting. Oh and if they can find a consistent big man that would be great as well!</p>
<p id="VVTdB5">There’s still real reason to feel hopeful for the future of Mizzou Basketball. A season like this one would have killed a hundred locker rooms, but Missouri stuck together. That leadership, the connectedness that East, Honor, and Carter showed this season should be admired because it can help set the tone for future seasons. Young and impressionable players can see them focusing on the task at hand and learn to do the same. So when the fortunes do turn, and they will, you don’t take it for granted. </p>
<p id="lQifxk">The players (mostly) did their part. It’s time for the staff and the NIL office to do the rest. If Mizzou can play their hand right, there is no reason why this post can’t be a bit happier (and posted a bit later) next year. </p>
<p id="VAWJFD">I wrapped last season's post with this quote: <em>Mizzou Basketball feels like it’s back. But as Ian Fleming said, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.” You have to do it again.</em></p>
<p id="iSFANZ">They did not do it again. This season was a failure. After year one, we’ll call it happenstance. </p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2024/3/14/24100351/r-i-p-mizzou-basketball-2023-24-recruiting-spring-transfer-portalSam Snelling2024-03-10T05:00:00-05:002024-03-10T05:00:00-05:00Study Hall: LSU 84, Mizzou 80
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<p>They did it! They accomplished the improbable!</p> <p id="Ebq5lU">Surely there has never been a team like this Missouri basketball team. </p>
<p id="0O51oG">Over 35 minutes of game action the Tigers outscored the Bayou Bengals 72-51. The other 5 minutes they were outscored 33-8. That’s +19 to -25... all in just a few minutes of game action. </p>
<p id="30T6t8">I’m not going to spend a lot of time here. A lot of it is the same. Some is different, but we’re nearing the end and I’m sure you, like myself, are ready to just get this over with. </p>
<p id="80aZxM">So I’ll just say that I was pleased with the scout, they looked prepared and had a sound plan. A lot of it worked, until LSU got energized during a lightning burst of a 14-0 run to go from 7 down to up 7. By that point it was all as if we’ve seen this pay before, Mrs. Lincoln. </p>
<h1 id="TFpKHR">Team Stats</h1>
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<img alt="2024 study hall lsu" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/brqunCmTmFkbEAL0W1dZUht6hvU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25327691/31_LSU_Game_Box.png">
</figure>
<p id="Uy9GiX">Even in possessions minus turnovers, minus four on the offensive glass. </p>
<p id="2V9G8t">Mizzou coaxed the right shooting night from the LSU Tigers but sent them to the line 21 more times to the tune of 13 more points. </p>
<p id="4jvorI">I see this stat-box and just think about how frustrating this has to be for the coaches. You really did nearly everything right and it still didn’t matter. </p>
<h1 id="JHenhD">Player Stats</h1>
<h3 id="SChsHG">Your Trifecta: Sean East II, Noah Carter, Tamar Bates</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
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<p id="RiOBLb"><em>On the season: Sean East II 56, Tamar Bates 36, Noah Carter 32, Nick Honor 24, Aidan Shaw 7, Connor Vanover 6, Caleb Grill 6, Anthony Robinson II 5, Trent Pierce 3, Jesus Carralero-Martin 2, Jordan Butler 1</em></p>
<p id="p3di8L">Honestly really happy to see Noah have a good game. Carter had scored just 14 points over the last four games, and really it has felt like more of a struggle over the entire season, from a guy everyone was counting on to step into a bigger role. Carter’s a good teammate, and a big reason why the locker room hasn’t disintegrated despite the winless run in conference play. A month or a year or two years from now we won’t really think about that part of it but if Dennis Gates is going to turn this around a good portion of it is going to come from the fact that despite this incredibly tough run, he never lost the locker room, and Carter and Sean East and Nick Honor will have played a big role in that. </p>
<p id="joQLRo">Speaking of East, he was so good against LSU that SEVEN TURNOVERS barely nicked his efficiency. You’re doing well when you’re running a 1.12 offensive efficiency while turning the ball over nearly <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> of the time. </p>
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<p id="tH05JD">The freshmen really had a good night, even if it was a little low key. Jordan Butler didn’t attempt any shots but he really played pretty well. They also combined for 28% of the rebounds! But holding true to form, Mizzou only got good nights from two of their top four guys. Nick Honor was bad and Tamar Bates was kinda middle of the road. So even the bonus push from Trent Pierce and Anthony Robinson didn’t matter enough. </p>
<p id="AVmUjb">All that’s left is the SEC Tournament and we’re into the offseason. </p>
<p id="gFcL2w">Sorry for this being so brief. But if it makes you feel better there isn’t a lot left to say and I’ve been working hard on a little project for you all that I think we can get excited about. Announcement coming soon. Until then, It was an eventful night for the spring sports and wrestling. We’ve got a LOT of coverage happening so tune in and click on those articles. And stay tuned in the next few days for what we all hope is an exciting new phase for RockMNation. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="SitoEx">
<p id="xvVzSd"><em><strong>True Shooting Percentage (TS%): </strong></em><em>Quite simply, this calculates a player’s shooting percentage while taking into account 2FG%, 3FG%, and FT%. The formula is Total Points / 2 * (FGA + (0.475+FTA)). The 0.475 is a Free Throw modifier. KenPomeroy and other College Basketball sites typically use 0.475, while the NBA typically uses 0.44. That’s basically what TS% is. A measure of scoring efficiency based on the number of points scored over the number of possessions in which they attempted to score, </em><a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball/2018/6/5/17428326/true-shooting-percentage-basketball-stats-why"><em><strong>more here.</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="HE3Yuz"><em><strong>Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%): </strong></em><em>This is similar to TS%, but takes 3-point shooting more into account. The formula is FGM + (0.5 * 3PM) / FGA</em></p>
<p id="oBZ6C6"><em>So think of TS% as scoring efficiency, and eFG% as shooting efficiency, </em><a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball/2018/6/5/17428326/true-shooting-percentage-basketball-stats-why"><em><strong>more here.</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="6qCUiW"><em><strong>Expected Offensive Rebounds: </strong></em><em>Measured based on the average rebounds a college basketball team gets on both the defensive and offensive end. This takes the overall number of missed shots (or shots available to be rebounded) and divides them by the number of offensive rebounds and compares them with the statistical average.</em></p>
<p id="syIhX3"><em><strong>AdjGS:</strong></em><em> A take-off of the Game Score metric (definition </em><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html"><em><strong>here</strong></em></a><em>) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual’s “score” for a given game. The “adjustment” in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game’s points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.</em></p>
<p id="c33Erk"><em><strong>%Min</strong></em><em>: This is easy, it’s the percentage of minutes a player played that were available to them. That would be 40 minutes, or 45 if the game goes to overtime.</em></p>
<p id="rXTyUz"><em><strong>Usage%</strong></em><em>: This “estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor” (</em><a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/"><em><strong>via sports-reference.com/cbb</strong></em></a><em>). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team’s offensive outcome.</em></p>
<p id="AiwF3Z"><em><strong>Offensive Rating (ORtg):</strong></em><em> Similar to Adjusted game score, but this looks at how many points per possession a player would score if they were averaged over 100 possessions. This combined with Usage Rate gives you a sense of impact on the floor.</em></p>
<p id="zJWCjw"><em><strong>IndPoss</strong></em><em>: This approximates how many possessions an individual is responsible for within the team’s calculated possessions.</em></p>
<p id="IHREFV"><em><strong>ShotRate%: </strong></em><em>This is the percentage of a team’s shots a player takes while on the floor.</em></p>
<p id="I5flkU"><em><strong>AstRate%: </strong></em><em>Attempts to estimate the number of assists a player has on teammates made field goals when he is on the floor. The formula is basically AST / (((MinutesPlayed / (Team MP / 5)) * Team FGM) - FGM).</em></p>
<p id="fBe2lL"><em><strong>TORate%</strong></em><em>: Attempts to estimate the number of turnovers a player commits in their individual possessions. The formula is simple: TO / IndPoss</em></p>
<p id="oTSgVX"><em><strong>Floor%</strong></em><em>: Via</em><a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/"><em><strong> sports-reference.com/cbb</strong></em></a><em>: Floor % answers the question, “When a Player uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?”. The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.</em></p>
<p id="iRM4Ua"><s><em><strong>Touches/Possession</strong></em></s><s><em>: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, touches attempt to estimate, “the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor.” Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you’ll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.</em></s></p>
<p id="rKN4Zm"><s><em>Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player “in an attacking position” passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.</em></s></p>
<p id="F8JvJc"><em>In attempting to update Study Hall, I’m moving away from Touches/Possession and moving into the Rates a little more. This is a little experimental so if there’s something you’d like to see let me know and I’ll see if there’s an easy visual way to present it.</em></p>
<p id="xdfuIa"></p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/study-hall/2024/3/10/24096045/mizzou-basketball-stats-analysis-reaction-study-hall-lsu-tigersSam Snelling2024-03-09T05:00:00-06:002024-03-09T05:00:00-06:00College Basketball GameDay: Missouri vs LSU: info, where to watch, predictions
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<figcaption>Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Last chance</p> <p id="C7XncN">We made it!</p>
<p id="42FEqf">The long nightmare season’s end is nigh. I don’t need to spell any more of this out for you at this point, but it’s sucked. But nothing last forever, the good or the bad. And the bad is almost over with. </p>
<p id="somdwY">I don’t think I’ve ever seen a season like this. For three years we watched Kim Anderson’s teams be overmatched and still manage to pull off a few wins here and there. We saw Cuonzo Martin ride injury riddled teams and find ways to win at least five conference games. For whatever reason Mizzou this season just hasn’t been able to break through. And now it’s officially become a thing.</p>
<p id="lBqzIr">It may feel like forever ago but Mizzou was actually favored to beat Georgia in the first conference game. And really probably should have. It wasn’t until a late Georgia run where the odds switched towards the Bulldogs. The next game was a trip to Kentucky and you probably never expect to win that one. But then South Carolina came to town and if you forgot... MIzzou led that game for nearly the entirety of the second half all the way up until SC tied it at the very end of regulation. With either or both of those games and I’m sure we’re feeling a little different. That probably spurs them onto at least a couple more wins. </p>
<p id="65jOjs">Instead it’s all gone wrong. </p>
<p id="jXzJiP">There’s one last chance to win a game during the regular season. Whether they win or not is really immaterial to what needs to happen next. LSU isn’t very good, they’re not bad either. And they’re probably playing for a post-season bid. You get to 9-9 in the SEC and you should probably be playing somewhere.</p>
<p id="hOhH2N">So it’s a tall task. Needing a win against a home team who is consistently better than you are in their home gym, it doesn’t spell success in most cases. </p>
<p id="XTJwc0">You could do the sensible thing here, there are plenty of other good games to watch... watch them and hope for better days ahead!</p>
<h2 id="mkzunX">Missouri-LSU basketball: Time, Location</h2>
<p id="9Zu4yh"><strong>TIME: </strong>7:30 p.m. CT</p>
<p id="e0yOA3"><strong>DATE: </strong>Saturday, March 9, 2024</p>
<p id="f0QJsv"><strong>LOCATION: </strong>Maravich Assembly Center; Baton Rouge, LA</p>
<h2 id="wnBSwv">Missouri-LSU basketball: Follow the game, TV Channel</h2>
<p id="IG3u3h"><strong>TELEVISION: </strong>SEC Network</p>
<p id="CYdYih"><strong>STREAM</strong>: WatchESPN</p>
<p id="bTkiNY"><em><strong>ESPN+</strong></em>: <a href="http://go.web.plus.espn.com/c/482924/555830/9070?sharedid=RockMNation">ROCKMNATION</a></p>
<h2 id="pSAFk4">Missouri-LSU basketball: Betting odds, predictions</h2>
<p id="cHo1mR">As of Friday evening, Missouri is a 7-point underdog to LSU, according to <a href="https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/87637?wpcid=163239&wpcn=howtowatchcontent&wpscn=CFB&wpsrc=Vox">DraftKing’s Sportsbook</a>. The total points (over/under) is 151. <a href="http://KenPom.com">KenPom.com</a> prediction machine has this projected as a 9 point Missouri loss, 79-70.</p>
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<p id="YoAVpS"><em>RockMNation has affiliate partnerships. These do not influence editorial content, though RockMNation may earn commissions for products purchased via affiliate links. Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See </em><a href="https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/87637?wpcid=163239&wpcn=howtowatchcontent&wpscn=CFB&wpsrc=Vox"><em><strong>draftkings.com/sportsbook</strong></em></a><em> for details.</em></p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball/2024/3/9/24095129/college-basketball-gameday-missouri-vs-lsu-info-where-to-watch-predictionsSam Snelling2024-03-07T08:00:00-06:002024-03-07T08:00:00-06:00Study Hall: Auburn 101, Mizzou 74
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<p>Not even a KenPom column was enough to get Mizzou out of the winless column. </p> <p id="Ebq5lU">Tuesday night was a bear. </p>
<p id="I5ekSk">On top of Mizzou losing by 27 points at home, the game began a little after 8 but didn’t hit halftime until about a quarter after 9. It didn’t wrap up until nearly 10:30. There were 64 free throw attempts, several reviews, and just anything else that could extend the game and make it longer happened. And this was a game that was largely non-competitive in the second half. </p>
<p id="JGRHTF">It was a tale of two halves. Auburn was +5 in point differential in the first half and +22 in the second. They were only +4 in rebounds in the 1st half, but grabbed 13 offensive rebounds thanks to shooting just 37.5% from the floor. In the second half they grabbed only one offensive rebound, but they also only missed 6 shots from the floor (and three from the FT line). Meanwhile Mizzou did about the same in the first half as they did in the second. It’s just int he first half, Auburn was bad and in the second half they were not. </p>
<h1 id="TFpKHR">Team Stats</h1>
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<ul>
<li id="Uy9GiX">
<strong>This is where I’m happy I changed the format a bit</strong>: it’s one thing to see that Mizzou shot just 34.1% from inside the arc, it’s another to see they basically matched Auburn in attempts but made 12 fewer shots. Getting a similar percentage from three, and being better at the FT line by a bit were useless because of the disparity happening at the rim. You can thank Johni Broome for a good amount of that. He’s just a monster around the rim and his timing is exceptional. </li>
<li id="boQbl9">
<strong>Auburn survived in the first half on the glass</strong>: and it’s just another example of this team not making up possessions through turnovers the way they did a year ago. They lost the BCI battle and had an even amount of turnovers. The rate is good offensively, less so on defense. </li>
</ul>
<p id="MX9edU">The pace was higher (thanks to a fair amount of fouling) despite the time it took to play the game, that favored Auburn. But Missouri giving up 1.55 points per shot attempt is a lot when they’re only forcing 11 turnovers. Which is a bit of a microcosm for the season. They’re the same as they were last year defensively, except they don’t force turnovers at the same rate.</p>
<h1 id="JHenhD">Player Stats</h1>
<h3 id="SChsHG">Your Trifecta: Sean East II, Aidan Shaw, Tamar Bates</h3>
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<img alt="2024 study hall auburn" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ue3aslJrZYlzEZsGv07FWl4X5Ng=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25320663/30_Auburn_Player_Box.png">
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<p id="RiOBLb"><em>On the season: Sean East II 53, Tamar Bates 35, Noah Carter 30, Nick Honor 24, Aidan Shaw 7, Connor Vanover 6, Caleb Grill 6, Anthony Robinson II 5, Trent Pierce 3, Jesus Carralero-Martin 2, Jordan Butler 1</em></p>
<p id="p3di8L">It was such a tough night offensively for everyone that Sean East could go 4-17 from the floor, scratch and claw his way to 21 points, and be far and away the leader in Adjusted GameScore. It was also such a tough night that Aidan Shaw slipped into the second spot because he made a couple shots and grabbed 9 rebounds. </p>
<p id="Qvo2Bk">Credit to Shaw here, he’s had a really strong stretch here in the last few games. He’s not really flashing much more than he has offensively, but he’s been slightly more aggressive around the rim and his rebounding rates are still very high. Going forward he’s still kind of caught in the middle of a wing and a combo forward, but if you impact play and help your team it doesn’t matter what position you play, you’ll be on the floor. </p>
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<p id="x6vSGc">It’s getting harder and harder to write about this team. I guess it’s fortunate I’ve made it this far and still having something to say on a game to game basis. Even if a few times I’ve repeated myself.</p>
<p id="f3sf0d">It’s been a very tough year, and Mizzou has competed hard for much of it. Even if the margin was ugly against Auburn, there was no quit. It was just a matter of a team with 3-4 guys who were capable of being competitive in that game against a roster that routinely goes 10 deep. For years it’s felt as though Auburn was a poor matchup for Mizzou because they’re usually very athletic and Bruce Pearl plays a lot of guys who are interchangeable. Whereas for far too long Mizzou has had less athletic rosters without much depth. </p>
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<cite>Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation</cite>
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<p id="Hj9V9b">At least Dennis Gates is trying to change that last part. </p>
<p id="YCqGKy">It was a disappointing finish to the home season. Even the Ole Miss game left you with a bit more hope. To get drubbed and be so poor offensively just let the air out of the building. But I did appreciate Dennis Gates’ comments after the game captured here by Eli Hoff, the beat writer for the Post-Dispatch:</p>
<div id="wmUcIc">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here's how <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mizzou?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Mizzou</a> coach Dennis Gates ended his last home postgame press conference of the year — with a message for fans, administration and reporters:<br><br>"I am absolutely proud of our guys. I am proud of each and every one of them. If you quote me, please quote that," he began... <a href="https://t.co/3U8T3twUR8">pic.twitter.com/3U8T3twUR8</a></p>— Eli Hoff (@byEliHoff) <a href="https://twitter.com/byEliHoff/status/1765245967320678442?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 6, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p id="zG9skl">This has been a season gone awry in a big way, and what’s impressive is the entire locker room is still holding the rope. They’re together, they play together, and Gates is right. There is nothing for them to hold their heads about. Losing sucks. We don’t want them to lose. They don’t want to lose. But to lose as much as they have and still be that responsive to each other is something they do deserve credit for. </p>
<p id="GhW85k">Maybe it’s naive, but I think that’s important. And it’s why I think Dennis Gates is going to be fine. Just get out there and make things better with a few key portal adds and let's get it right next year. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="SitoEx">
<p id="xvVzSd"><em><strong>True Shooting Percentage (TS%): </strong></em><em>Quite simply, this calculates a player’s shooting percentage while taking into account 2FG%, 3FG%, and FT%. The formula is Total Points / 2 * (FGA + (0.475+FTA)). The 0.475 is a Free Throw modifier. KenPomeroy and other College Basketball sites typically use 0.475, while the NBA typically uses 0.44. That’s basically what TS% is. A measure of scoring efficiency based on the number of points scored over the number of possessions in which they attempted to score, </em><a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball/2018/6/5/17428326/true-shooting-percentage-basketball-stats-why"><em><strong>more here.</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="HE3Yuz"><em><strong>Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%): </strong></em><em>This is similar to TS%, but takes 3-point shooting more into account. The formula is FGM + (0.5 * 3PM) / FGA</em></p>
<p id="oBZ6C6"><em>So think of TS% as scoring efficiency, and eFG% as shooting efficiency, </em><a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball/2018/6/5/17428326/true-shooting-percentage-basketball-stats-why"><em><strong>more here.</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="6qCUiW"><em><strong>Expected Offensive Rebounds: </strong></em><em>Measured based on the average rebounds a college basketball team gets on both the defensive and offensive end. This takes the overall number of missed shots (or shots available to be rebounded) and divides them by the number of offensive rebounds and compares them with the statistical average.</em></p>
<p id="syIhX3"><em><strong>AdjGS:</strong></em><em> A take-off of the Game Score metric (definition </em><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html"><em><strong>here</strong></em></a><em>) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual’s “score” for a given game. The “adjustment” in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game’s points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.</em></p>
<p id="c33Erk"><em><strong>%Min</strong></em><em>: This is easy, it’s the percentage of minutes a player played that were available to them. That would be 40 minutes, or 45 if the game goes to overtime.</em></p>
<p id="rXTyUz"><em><strong>Usage%</strong></em><em>: This “estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor” (</em><a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/"><em><strong>via sports-reference.com/cbb</strong></em></a><em>). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team’s offensive outcome.</em></p>
<p id="AiwF3Z"><em><strong>Offensive Rating (ORtg):</strong></em><em> Similar to Adjusted game score, but this looks at how many points per possession a player would score if they were averaged over 100 possessions. This combined with Usage Rate gives you a sense of impact on the floor.</em></p>
<p id="zJWCjw"><em><strong>IndPoss</strong></em><em>: This approximates how many possessions an individual is responsible for within the team’s calculated possessions.</em></p>
<p id="IHREFV"><em><strong>ShotRate%: </strong></em><em>This is the percentage of a team’s shots a player takes while on the floor.</em></p>
<p id="I5flkU"><em><strong>AstRate%: </strong></em><em>Attempts to estimate the number of assists a player has on teammates made field goals when he is on the floor. The formula is basically AST / (((MinutesPlayed / (Team MP / 5)) * Team FGM) - FGM).</em></p>
<p id="fBe2lL"><em><strong>TORate%</strong></em><em>: Attempts to estimate the number of turnovers a player commits in their individual possessions. The formula is simple: TO / IndPoss</em></p>
<p id="oTSgVX"><em><strong>Floor%</strong></em><em>: Via</em><a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/"><em><strong> sports-reference.com/cbb</strong></em></a><em>: Floor % answers the question, “When a Player uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?”. The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.</em></p>
<p id="iRM4Ua"><s><em><strong>Touches/Possession</strong></em></s><s><em>: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, touches attempt to estimate, “the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor.” Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you’ll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.</em></s></p>
<p id="rKN4Zm"><s><em>Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player “in an attacking position” passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.</em></s></p>
<p id="F8JvJc"><em>In attempting to update Study Hall, I’m moving away from Touches/Possession and moving into the Rates a little more. This is a little experimental so if there’s something you’d like to see let me know and I’ll see if there’s an easy visual way to present it.</em></p>
<p id="xdfuIa"></p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/study-hall/2024/3/7/24091977/mizzou-basketball-stats-analysis-reaction-study-hall-vs-auburnSam Snelling