By god, I'm putting the same energy into this as I have for the others.  Or I'm at least going to try.  Or try to try.

Initial Stat Assault

It's easy to pin Baylor down in a "bad offense, bad defense, bad everything" mold, and to some general degree you'd be somewhat correct in doing so, especially last year.  After showing increments of progress in 2005 and 2006, the wheels came off in 2007.  But let's try to figure out specifically where Baylor was proficient and woefully overmatched.

Offense (Success Rate / Points Per Play / S&P)

Overall: 38.2% / 0.25 / 0.630
Rushing: 39.9% / 0.30 / 0.695
Passing: 37.5% / 0.22 / 0.599

Overall (close): 38.7% / 0.25 / 0.637
Rushing (close): 36.6% / 0.27 / 0.638
Passing (close): 39.7% / 0.24 / 0.636

Passing Downs: 29.0% / 0.13 / 0.422
Non-Passing Downs: 43.1% / 0.31 / 0.739

Redzone: 33.6% / 0.16 / 0.497

Q1: 41.1% / 0.19 / 0.603
Q2: 36.3% / 0.37 / 0.734
Q3: 33.3% / 0.16 / 0.497
Q4: 42.3% / 0.26 / 0.685

1st Down: 40.4% / 0.26 / 0.663
2nd Down: 37.7% / 0.28 / 0.657
3rd Down: 35.5% / 0.14 / 0.492

• First key to success when implementing a spread offense: be able to throw the ball.  Baylor couldn't.
• The quarter-by-quarter numbers are pretty telling here.  In Q1, Baylor was able to move the chains a bit, but they had no explosive potential whatsoever.  By Q2, the need to pick up more than 3-5 yards at a time took over, and the success rate plummeted.  And then in Q4, when the game was likely out of hand, the numbers picked up a bit again.
• And predictably, they were terrible on 3rd downs.

Defense

Overall: 48.6% / 0.34 / 0.830
Rushing: 51.8% / 0.36 / 0.874
Passing: 45.3% / 0.33 / 0.784

Overall (close): 47.8% / 0.30 / 0.778
Rushing (close): 52.3% / 0.30 / 0.820
Passing (close): 43.5% / 0.30 / 0.739

Passing Downs: 30.6% / 0.08 / 0.383
Non-Passing Downs: 55.5% / 0.45 / 1.002

Redzone: 45.1% / 0.36 / 0.811

Q1: 45.7% / 0.25 / 0.704
Q2: 52.5% / 0.34 / 0.862
Q3: 48.7% / 0.40 / 0.889
Q4: 47.5% / 0.39 / 0.864

1st Downs: 54.0% / 0.45 / 0.990
2nd Downs: 47.3% / 0.33 / 0.805
3rd Downs: 36.7% / -0.02 / 0.351

• Leave it to Baylor to be one of the worst 1st down defenses in the country...and just about the best 3rd down defense in the country.  The Bears were murderous on 3rd downs and passing downs...but they just couldn't force many 3rd downs or passing downs.
• As with the offense, they came out guns-blazing in the 1st quarter and resembled a decent team...and then the regression started.
• As with many below-average defenses, stopping the run was the main problem.  They were downright decent against the pass.  Not great, but decent.
• Seriously, I may need to check on the accuracy of those 3rd-down numbers.  That's pretty sick if it's true.
• Yup, it's true.

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