Quarterbacks

1. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
2. Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
3. Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
4. Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
5. Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
6. Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here.  If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap.  If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

1. Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
2. Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
3. Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
4. Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
5. Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
6. Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine.  Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
2. Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
3. Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
4. Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
5. Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
6. Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)
   

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario.  He's gone.  As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South.  OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley.  OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them.  Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

1. Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
2. Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
3. Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
4. Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
5. Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
6. Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)
   

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09.  You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma State (21)
2. Texas (20)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (12)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will.  But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (17)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (13)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (21)
3. Texas Tech (13)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

1. Oklahoma State (23)
2. Texas (18)
3. Texas Tech (14)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

By god, I'm putting the same energy into this as I have for the others.  Or I'm at least going to try.  Or try to try.

Initial Stat Assault

It's easy to pin Baylor down in a "bad offense, bad defense, bad everything" mold, and to some general degree you'd be somewhat correct in doing so, especially last year.  After showing increments of progress in 2005 and 2006, the wheels came off in 2007.  But let's try to figure out specifically where Baylor was proficient and woefully overmatched.

Offense (Success Rate / Points Per Play / S&P)

Overall: 38.2% / 0.25 / 0.630
Rushing: 39.9% / 0.30 / 0.695
Passing: 37.5% / 0.22 / 0.599

Overall (close): 38.7% / 0.25 / 0.637
Rushing (close): 36.6% / 0.27 / 0.638
Passing (close): 39.7% / 0.24 / 0.636

Passing Downs: 29.0% / 0.13 / 0.422
Non-Passing Downs: 43.1% / 0.31 / 0.739

Redzone: 33.6% / 0.16 / 0.497

Q1: 41.1% / 0.19 / 0.603
Q2: 36.3% / 0.37 / 0.734
Q3: 33.3% / 0.16 / 0.497
Q4: 42.3% / 0.26 / 0.685

1st Down: 40.4% / 0.26 / 0.663
2nd Down: 37.7% / 0.28 / 0.657
3rd Down: 35.5% / 0.14 / 0.492

• First key to success when implementing a spread offense: be able to throw the ball.  Baylor couldn't.
• The quarter-by-quarter numbers are pretty telling here.  In Q1, Baylor was able to move the chains a bit, but they had no explosive potential whatsoever.  By Q2, the need to pick up more than 3-5 yards at a time took over, and the success rate plummeted.  And then in Q4, when the game was likely out of hand, the numbers picked up a bit again.
• And predictably, they were terrible on 3rd downs.

Defense

Overall: 48.6% / 0.34 / 0.830
Rushing: 51.8% / 0.36 / 0.874
Passing: 45.3% / 0.33 / 0.784

Overall (close): 47.8% / 0.30 / 0.778
Rushing (close): 52.3% / 0.30 / 0.820
Passing (close): 43.5% / 0.30 / 0.739

Passing Downs: 30.6% / 0.08 / 0.383
Non-Passing Downs: 55.5% / 0.45 / 1.002

Redzone: 45.1% / 0.36 / 0.811

Q1: 45.7% / 0.25 / 0.704
Q2: 52.5% / 0.34 / 0.862
Q3: 48.7% / 0.40 / 0.889
Q4: 47.5% / 0.39 / 0.864

1st Downs: 54.0% / 0.45 / 0.990
2nd Downs: 47.3% / 0.33 / 0.805
3rd Downs: 36.7% / -0.02 / 0.351

• Leave it to Baylor to be one of the worst 1st down defenses in the country...and just about the best 3rd down defense in the country.  The Bears were murderous on 3rd downs and passing downs...but they just couldn't force many 3rd downs or passing downs.
• As with the offense, they came out guns-blazing in the 1st quarter and resembled a decent team...and then the regression started.
• As with many below-average defenses, stopping the run was the main problem.  They were downright decent against the pass.  Not great, but decent.
• Seriously, I may need to check on the accuracy of those 3rd-down numbers.  That's pretty sick if it's true.
• Yup, it's true.

Continue reading this post »