In the absence of an Opponent Week BTBS piece, instead you get more talk about other conferences!  It's been fun to notice how teams in different conferences start to resemble their conference mates after a while.  Pretty much every Big East team had a stout pass defense in '07 (aside from Louisville, who had the nation's worst), and seemingly every team had O-line inconsistencies as well.  Let's see how they stack up for '08.

And it just struck me that I should probably put Notre Dame somewhere, so they'll go at the end of Part Two tomorrow.

Game-Changing Stats

• Offensive Success Rates (particularly Q1)
  
• 3rd Down Offense
  
• 3rd Down Rushing Defense
  
• Passing Downs Defense
  

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Rushing EqPts+
#1: Defensive Rushing EqPts+
#1: Defensive Passing S&P+ (close games)
#1: Defensive 2nd Down Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#103: Defensive Q3 Rushing S&P+
#97: Defensive Q3 Line Yards+
#96: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+
#85: Offensive Q3 Passing S&P+

We've pretty well established that there's a "top tier" of 7 teams nationally--Georgia, LSU, Florida, OU, Missouri, USC, and Ohio State, in some order.  If there's one team that could crack into that tier, it's West Virginia.  It's easy to get the feeling that they blew their best chance at a national title last year--they're probably not going to be #1 in Offensive Rushing EqPts+ AND Defensive Rushing EqPts+ this year.  But with a schedule of 7 home games and 5 winnable road games (ECU, Colorado, UConn, Louisville, Pitt), WV and new (former interim) coach Bill Stewart will have a chance to make a run.  Lord knows they've got the speed for a run.

We'll start with what you know.  Pat White?  Noel Devine?  Good.  Really, really good.  Now that that's out of the way, what else does WV have?  How about 5 returning starters on the OL?  Does that sound like a good thing?  LT Ryan Stanchek was an All-American in '07, and he's joined by four other seniors (and a senior "block first" TE in Sam Morrone) up front.  Meanwhile, Devine will have some company in the backfield with returnees like Jock Sanders and newcomers like Terence Kerns and Zach Hulse.  Really, the main question mark is at WR, where Dorrell Jalloh is the only returnee that caught more than 12 passes in '07.

As good as WV was on offense last year, the numbers suggest the defense was almost as good.  In fact, in WV's two losses against USF and Pitt, the main breakdowns happened on the offensive end (hence the top two 'Game-Changing Stats' coming on offense).  Fortunately for the Mountaineers, their top two tacklers return; unfortunately, that's about it.  Nine of the next 11 tacklers on the list are gone.  They have to replace their two best D-linemen and all four starters in the secondary--bad news considering pass defense was a WV strength.  If WV fails to break into the aforementioned Top Tier, that would be why, and naturally that's been a primary focus in August practices.

Verdict: WV has a favorable schedule (they get Auburn, USF and Rutgers at home) and the most explosive backfield in the country.  But I can't shake a couple of thoughts: 1) Pat White got hurt twice last year (setting up both losses), and he's not going to take any less of a pounding in '08, and 2) the defense really did bail them out a bit at times, giving up 14 points or less 6 times in '07, and the pass defense in particular is going to take a hefty step backwards.  And for that matter, 3) their head coach has 1 career 1A win (and a 9-25 record overall after three failed years at VMI).  I can't help but think they're going to slip at some point(s), but they're still obviously the class of the Big East.

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