I'm suddenly running behind this week, so...less talk, more numbers...

Thoughts after the jump...

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So at my current rate, I'll be sick of writing about the Big 12 by about Week Three of the season.  I mean...how many words have I written about the Ne-----a defense at this point?  7,000?  8,000?  And Ron Prince's JUCOs?  2,000?  I've still got a few more BTBS previews of Big 12 teams to write, but as I get the chance over the last month of the offseason, I'm going to branch out a bit and write about other conferences.  And naturally we'll start with the OMG, greatest, fastest, most talented, most awesomely amazing conference known to man, the SEC.

Now, I'm calling this a "Beyond the Box Score" preview, but I'm going to make it as non-number friendly as possible.  I'm going to use some BTBS concepts to set up the team previews, but the rest will be more standard analysis.  And hopefully that will make you want to learn the BTBS concepts.  Yeah, that's the ticket!

Here's what we're going to do: I'm going to address each team's four main "Game-Changing Stats" emerging from their WinCorr's (I didn't figure anybody would care if I didn't list out the top 20 statistical categories as I've been doing recently...correct me if I'm wrong).  Then I'll look at their national '+' rankings and list their best and worst categories.

So let's just get started.  I'll list teams in order of where they finished last year, I'll determine a 'balance of power' for each division, and then I'll look at the schedules.  East Division today, West Division and schedules tomorrow.

(And one last note: I removed all 'pressure situation' categories from the list, as...well...pressure situations are important for everybody...we don't need stats to figure that one out...)

East Division

Tennessee (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats (i.e. stats with the highest impact on the team's W/L's, and what they mean for 2008)

• Pass Defense, close games.
  
• Q2 Defense.
• Rushing Offense, Non-Passing Downs.
• Q2 Offense.

Top Ranks

#11: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+.
#11: Offensive Q2 S&P+.
#12: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Passing.
#13: Defensive 2nd Down S&P+, Rushing.

Bottom Ranks

#117: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+.
#105: Offensive Q4 S&P+.
#102: Offensive Q4 S&P+, Passing.
#102: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+.

Remember how the Vols won the East last year instead of Florida or Georgia?  Remember that?  Me neither.

I've expressed my theory in the past that, in general, teams are either 1st and 3rd quarter teams or 2nd and 4th quarter teams.  The 1st/3rd's are generally teams who derive advantages from gameplanning and adjustments.  The 2nd/4th's are the teams with talent and athleticism that overcome you once the gameplanning is exhausted.  It's a relatively viable theory, I think, but UT blows that for now.  You see, Tennessee's best quarters were Q2 and Q4.  Their worst quarters were...Q2 and Q4  Their passing game found a rhythm in Q2, while their run blocking ground to a halt.  Then, in Q4 the opposite happened...the run blocking in Q4 was top-notch, while the passing game faltered.  How does this happen?  And more importantly...what does it mean?  I wish I had an answer.

All I know is this: their secondary returns intact, and while you could make something of a case that that isn't a good thing (they weren't very good, so you'd kinda want some new talent in there), I'll say that it is, in fact, good.

Also tied to wins and losses: the rushing game.  Let's see: a) the line appears to have blocked better as the game wore on, b) Arian Foster returns, and c) Phil Steele calls UT's OL the best in the SEC.  Another good thing.

So now they just have to get this whole "Q2" thing figured out.  They lose 18-year starting QB Erik Ainge, so that's bad, but if Q2 really is a "talent" quarter, former stud recruit Jonathan Crompton should lead the offense relatively well.

Summary: I'm pretty torn on this team.  These numbers suggest that Tennessee should be as good or better at the things that where most important to them last year, and that could spell success.  Only, the teams around them possibly improved more.

I always thought Erik Ainge was rather overrated, so I don't feel that replacing him will be completely murderous.  The running game should click along pretty well as long as Crompton isn't a total liability in the passing game, and the defense isn't the best in the conference, but I think their success will come down to what's more important: the positive impact of getting better in the secondary, or the negative impact of getting worse on the D-Line.  For now we'll say the offense is better, the defense the same.

Verdict: Tennessee could be a bit better than what most are assuming (then again, SMQ and others have them in the Top 20, so whaddo I know).  If they slip in the SEC East, it's because...well, they play in the SEC East, and Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina should all improve quite a bit in '08.

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