Part One

California (3-6)

Game-Changing Stats

• Q2 Defense
• Rushing Offense, particularly on 1st Downs/Non-Passing Downs
• Q4 Offense
• Redzone Offense

Top Ranks

#2: Offensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#3: Offensive 1st Down S&P+
#4: Offensive Q2 S&P+
#5: Offensive Non-Passing Downs S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#121: Defensive 2nd Down Passing S&P+
#114: Defensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#105: Defensive 2nd Down S&P+
#103: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Raise your hand if you realized that Cal finished below both Oregon State and Arizona in the Pac 10 standings last year.  Yeah, that's what I thought.  On October 13, Cal was 5-0 and #2 in the country, having just won in Eugene the previous week.  Two months later, Cal was 6-6.  The only thing that prevented them from missing a bowl altogether was a 3-point home win against lowly Wazzu.  Injuries to Nate Longshore and Desean Jackson slowed the offense down, but...I mean...that collapse is just staggering.  That they actually managed to win the bowl game after falling behind big early, after awful performances at Washington (37-23) and Stanford (20-13) to end the season, is somewhat miraculous.

Few coaches in America are probably happier to start a new season than Jeff Tedford.  Nevermind that he has to replace most of his skill position players--Justin Forsett, DeSean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins, Robert Jordan--he's got both QBs and most of his top defenders back, and...well...2008 probably can't be more painful than 2007.  The main source of attention this August has been the QB battle, and it appears for now that Longshore is holding off Kevin Riley, who filled in for him with decent results last fall.  Longshore seems to be a pretty frustrating guy--he's capable of more than any of the other QBs, both good and bad.  Despite solid protection from the O-line last year, he managed only a 16-13 TD-INT ratio.

Whoever wins the QB battle, he'll have nothing but new weapons around him.  You can't figure a Jeff Tedford offense will be unproductive, but this year will test that theory.  Youngsters like Jahvid Best, Shane Vereen and Tracy Slocum are battling for the RB job, while the likes of JUCO transfer Verran Tucker, Florida transfer Nyan Boateng, and some other young players are fighting for WR PT.

Defensively, Cal has some potential star power.  The LB corps of Zack Follett, Anthony Felder and Worrell Williams is potentially outstanding, Syd'Quan Thompson is looking good at CB (plus his CB counterpart will likely be either Chris Conte or Darian Hagan's Son, both of whom got PT as true freshmen last year.  Plus, the D-Line returns quite a bit of experience, led by DE Tyson Alualu, but they need to produce a better pass rush.

In all, the defense should be solid, and the offense will be athletic, but it likely all boils down to QB performance.  Longshore looks the part (6'5, 230+) but has only managed a 41-27 TD-INT ratio in his career; Riley got some good experience last year but wasn't able to differentiate himself from Longshore.  One of them has to seize the opportunity and lead Cal back to what it's capable of achieving.

Verdict: I can't imagine Cal gravitates toward .500 again, but collapses like last year's can linger for a while.  Getting a lot of new blood in the skill positions might actually be a good thing, but one of the QBs has to become a strong leader.

Continue reading this post »