USC (7-2)

Or for all intents and purposes...

Game-Changing Stats

• 1st Down Defense
• Overall Defense, close games
• Q4 Rushing Offense
• Q1 Overall Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive EqPts+, Defensive EqPts+
#1: Defensive S&P+
#1: Offensive S&P+ (close games), Defensive S&P+ (close games)
#1: Defensive Line Yards+ (close games)

They were #1 in 8 categories overall (also: Defensive Non-Passing Downs S&P+, Defensive Q2 Line Yards+).

Bottom Ranks

#102: Offensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#96: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#95: Offensive 2nd Down Passing S&P+
#75: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Did you ever beat Mike Tyson (or in my case, see it done) in Punch Out?  Tyson would come out and throw haymaker after haymaker...if he landed one, you hit the ground.  If you dodged enough of them, though, he was handcuffed and you could outpoint him.  Most teams--from Idaho to Arizona State--crumbled quickly, but occasionally you see somebody you didn't expect (Oregon State/UCLA in 2006, Little Mac Stanford with Doc Harbaugh in 2007) weather the uppercuts.  The problem with being superior in athleticism and talent is that...well...you don't really get used to playing close games in the fourth quarter.  So when you do find yourself in that situation, you don't necessarily respond well.

In 2007, when USC faltered it was probably on the offense.  Passing in Q2 and rushing in Q4 tightened up a bit at times.  I don't know if USC's (occasional) lack of Q2/Q4 offensive success disproves (or is the exception to) my "Q1/Q3 = gameplan, Q2/Q4 = talent" theory, or if it just proves that, like Mike Krzyzewski, Pete Carroll's loose style needs the absolute best (not just very good) offensive talent for ultimate success, but either way USC faltered at a couple key times in 2007 with John David Booty, Chauncey Washington, Patrick Turner, etc., and they didn't do that with Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Dwayne Jarrett, etc.

2008 will be an interesting test for USC.  Joe McKnight could turn into Reggie Bush his sophomore season, Mark Sanchez could turn into Leinart, and any one of the 127 5-star WRs on the roster could turn into Mike Williams or Jarrett.  But until it happens, this is a team that could once again smoke good teams, then turn around and lay an unexpected egg.

But let's not play around here--USC might have the best defense in the country, and they still have as much or more pure offensive potential as anybody as well.  With this crew, the worst-case scenario is 10-2, and they're clearly one of the 3-4 most loaded teams in the country.  Of their 22 projected starters, 15 were in the Top 25 of their position according to Phil Steele's recruiting rankings, including #2 QB Sanchez (backed up by #1 Mitch Mustain if last week's injury ends up more serious than once thought), #3 RB Stafon Johnson, #3 WR Patrick Turner, #1 OL Jeff Byers, #1 DE Everson Griffen, #1 LB Rey Maualuga, #5 LB Brian Cushing, and #1 S Taylor Mays.  That's simply insane.  But it appears that the guys to watch may be the Sanchez-Johnson-Turner triumverate.  Carroll's system requires big individual plays from the talent positions, and those guys (plus Joe McKnight, Vidal Hazelton, Ronald Johnson, etc.) have to come up big.

Verdict: An offense loaded with potential...the single scariest, most hard-hitting defense in the country...I don't know if USC can avoid that random slip-up, but those slip-ups are impossible to predict...and I'm not even going to try.  The only scary road trip is to Corvallis, and I doubt they lose there again.  USC's one of my Top 2 teams in the country, and provided they get past Ohio State on 9/13, they should be in the national title game.

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