Soon-to-be Mizzou QB Blaine Dalton: Blue Springs legend.

It's safe to say that Northwestern will come to play on December 29.

"It means everything in the world to me," Northwestern senior quarterback C.J. Bachér said, "and I know for the other 22 seniors, to get this bowl victory and leave the legacy on this program that we set out to leave when we decided to commit here and sign our letters of intent."

...

Perhaps sensing his team could get passed over in the Big Ten’s bowl selection process - Northwestern’s average home attendance of 28,950 was the lowest in the league this season - Fitzgerald made a sales pitch shortly after his team wrapped up its regular season with a 27-10 victory over Illinois, telling reporters, "If a bowl site wants to have the best and brightest that college football has to offer, by far the highest per capita income of any Big Ten team among alumni bases, where the economy has affected our alumni the least, we’ll be there to sell out our tickets and buy all the purple and white they can sell. We have a young energetic staff that will bring down their smiling families and have a great time."

They’ll leave smiling, too, if Northwestern can snap a five-game losing streak in bowl games. The Wildcats last won a bowl game in the 1949 Rose Bowl, a 20-14 victory over Cal.

The new Rivals 100 is out, and Mizzou soft-commit Sheldon Richardson has moved up once again, this time to #4.  Mizzou target Bryce Brown is now #2.

MAILBAG!!!

MUted asks: What will it take for MU BBall to fill Mizzou Arena? Are we only capable of capacity when it's Big XII season?

I'm so glad someone asked this. But I want you to know before I answer that you have opened a can of worms. The fact is, it's time to get past blaming these kids and this coach for things that happened that they had nothing to do with. This is an exciting team. And it's a good team. If you're one of those that needs them to show you, well, then, go ahead and wait. But they've been phenomenal in that building this year. There was some great energy with only 8300 at the Cal game. Imagine what it would be like with double that. I think the first thing it takes is a win over Illinois and a win over Kansas. Missouri fans are sick of being non-competitive in the two biggest rivalries on the schedule. And I also think it takes an NCAA tournament appearance. I hate to say it, but there are just too many people who are tuned out right now. I don't think they'll sell out a single game outside of Kansas this year. It's a shame, but I think it's the truth. If the Tigers make the dance this year and have some momentum going into 2009-10, maybe those bandwagon jumpers will decide to hop on. Remember, it was just last year we were all pissing and moaning that the Tigers couldn't sell out Faurot Field. They did it regularly this year. It seems fans have to have concrete proof that the team wins for a full season before they'll show up on a regular basis, and that's not just in basketball.

Finally, when Mike Leach is right, he's right.  To only announce three finalists and NOT invite Graham Harrell (or Michael Crabtree...either would have been acceptable) is ridiculous.  I mean, they invited five last year, and we all knew that Chase Daniel and Colt Brennan weren't winning the award, but the invitation was still awesome.  "System" QB or not, he put up ridiculous numbers on an 11-1 team.  Don't know what more you want to ask out of him, other than playing at a name school.  Tim Griffin agrees.

Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football.  Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season.  Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons.  Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers.  Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge.  Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs.  Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility.  While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened.  And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected.  Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived.  Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen.  Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous.  Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009.  Daniel and Harrell?  Gone.  Crabtree and Maclin?  Almost certainly gone.  McCoy, Bradford, Freeman?  Possibly gone.  Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris?  Gone.  Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility.  So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus.  Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion."  For '09?  "New"  Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009.  We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009.  We'll start with the North Division.  To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers.  There will certainly be a time and place for that.  Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings.  And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits.  Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy.  Plus, you'll probably be wrong.  Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

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It's Thursday, so you know what that means...BTBS Day!!  At some point in the season, I'll be able to start using 2008 '+' numbers, but the +'s need quite a decent sample size to be even remotely accurate, so for now I'm still going with the "2007 #'s + adjustments" method.

Mizzou-Nevada Projections

Mizzou Rushing

• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
• Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 10.78
• Projection #1: 19.27
• Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts+: 132.50
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 12.23

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 15.75

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Washington > Temple in my eyes, and if Nevada sells out to stop the pass, look out.)

Mizzou Passing

• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
  
• Nevada Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.41
• Projection #1: 17.06
  
• Nevada Passing Defense EqPts+: 126.17
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 14.58
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 15.82

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Mizzou's offense is harder to stop than Texas Tech because of both the running game and the use of tight ends.  Tech may have a Jeremy Maclin equivalent--okay, better--in Michael Crabtree, but they don't have a Chase Coffman equivalent.)

Nevada Rushing

• Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts+: 133.67
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 11.08
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
• Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.49
• Projection #2: 9.53
  

Projected Nevada Rushing Output: 10.31

Adjusted for 2008: 7.00 (So far, Mizzou's been sturdy against the run, and combined with the loss of Luke Lippincott, UNR should find it hard to move the ball on the ground.)

Nevada Passing

• Nevada Passing Offense EqPts+: 126.17
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 15.32
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
• Nevada Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 12.58
• Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Nevada Passing Output: 12.12

Adjusted for 2008: 14.00 (Nevada's passing game is inconsistent, but pretty decent at the deep ball.  Until Mizzou slows down a passing game, we have to give the edge to the opponent here.)

--

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 38, Nevada 21

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nevada 17

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South Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
• Q1 Offense
• Offensive Points Per Play
• Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster?  Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup.  The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable.  Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country.  They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford.  As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy.  He was sacked all of once a game last year.  I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone.  Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat.  Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost.  If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer?  Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently.  I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles.  He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug.  You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him.  If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there.  DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

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