We continue our looks at other conferences by moving to the north and east...to Big Ten country.

Same rules as apply as with my SEC Preview (Part One, Part Two). I'm calling this a "Beyond the Box Score" preview, but I'm going to make it as non-number friendly as possible.  I'm going to use some BTBS concepts to set up the team previews, but the rest will be more standard analysis.  And hopefully that will make you want to learn the BTBS concepts.  Or something like that.

Here's what we're going to do: I'm going to address each team's four main "Game-Changing Stats" emerging from their WinCorr's (I didn't figure anybody would care if I didn't list out the top 20 statistical categories as I've been doing recently...correct me if I'm wrong).  Then I'll look at their national '+' rankings and list their best and worst categories.

Ohio State (7-1)

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Defense.
  
• 2nd Down Defense.
• Overall Defense, Passing Downs.
  
• Q2 Offense.
  

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Non-Passing Down S&P+
#1: Defensive Passing Down S&P+
#1: Defensive 1st Down S&P+, Defensive 2nd Down S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#99: Offensive 1st Down Rushing S&P+
#95: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#84: Offensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#81: Offensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#81: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+

They were #1 in 13 defensive categories overall.  They were to defense what Florida was to offense.  (It's important to remember this in light of the fact that, well, nobody really respects them a whole lot after the national title game problems.  This is a good team.)  The question is, if they do get back to the title game (and let's face it--the schedule screams 11-1), can they get over the hump?  The game-changing stats suggest that it's possible.

First of all, everyone but Larry Grant and Vernon Gholston return on the defensive side, and while Gholston's loss is a blow, his replacement Lawrence Wilson is experienced and was a starter last year until a broken leg ended his season.  That, combined with a more experienced secondary, means a continued stout pass defense is likely.  The question is, can they avoid the occasional breakdown?  Like other good defenses--LSU, Auburn--OSU had a bit of trouble with Passing Down breakdowns, but it wasn't a tremendously huge issue.  Lord knows they didn't lose to LSU because of the defense.

No, the trouble was on offense.  Todd Boeckman did his best Craig Krenzel impersonation for most of the season, and while it was good enough for 11 wins, he really didn't come through when it counted most.  He averaged just 182 yards passing while getting sacked 7 times in their two losses.  He will likely be complemented this fall by the guy everybody got tired of last winter, #1 high school recruit Terrelle Pryor.  Installing a run-oriented package for Pryor a few plays a game could help with some of the key rushing/redzone stats--a backfield of Pryor and Beanie Wells shouldn't have any problem with 1st or 3rd down rushing (though it might not help Q2/Q4 passing).  And that could make a huge difference in key moments.

Summary: If their defense remains as good as ever, and the running game improves...that leaves the passing game.  They struggled passing in the "talent" quarters (Q2/Q4), and Terrelle Pryor probably won't help in that regard.  It's up to Boeckman and his key receivers--Brian Robiskie, Brian Hartline, Ray Small--to actually make some plays against good secondaries, and until they do, tOSU will still be a bit limited.

Verdict: Of course, they'll still win the Big Ten, so 'limited' is a relative term.  If I'm ranking teams based on who I think would beat whom, this team falls below Georgia, USC, OU, Florida, Missouri, and possibly LSU.  But we all know they'll be right there in the title hunt at the end of the season.  Accept it, live it, love it.

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