We got to questions eventually, I promise.  But let's just pick up where the action began...

The Beef: So…while The Boy is in a morning meeting…anyone want to attempt to make this the earliest a Roundtable has ever gone careening off of the tracks? Who wants to fire the first salvo?

rptgwb: Ron Prince.

Go, Beef, go!

The Beef: No no...am not falling for that trap right there...I cursed all I wanted to the other day.

I did however see an article where the Gator Bowl is on record saying they would basically want a 7-5 Notre Dame or an 8-4 Nebraska over a 10-3 Mizzou squad....

rptgwb: Gator Bowl: Wrong for America.

Michael Atchison: What does this have to do with how hot Dave's sister is?

The Beef: Dave's Sister: Right for Everyone

Doug: And, boom goes the dynamite.

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It's...The Chamber!!! It's a big one, too.

Colorado Links!  Judging by the half-assed hits RMN is getting and the half-assed articles people are writing about this game, I'm not thinking anybody's heart is in this one.  We need some positivity to get behind...POSITIVITY.

• The Missourian: New QB system works for Colorado.  Define "works"...they're 1-0 with it, having scored 14 points against a bad defense.
• KC Star: Missouri is focused on beating Colorado.  Well...good.
• Post-Dispatch: Missouri defense keeps Texas thrashing in mind.
• Denver Post: Missouri trip is no vacation
• Mizzourah: Good, Bad and Sleezy

Aaaaand...that's about it.

Chase Coffman: really, really good.  Just like his dad.  (Dave Matter's got more Coffman blurbs at his blog.)

Finally, to basketball.  PowerMizzou's got Media Day quotes from Mike Anderson...

Q. Do you feel like this is a team that can kind of surprise some teams, maybe in the North and in the Big 12, kind of jump into that upper half and get competing with maybe the top four we see in the preseason poll?

COACH ANDERSON: I'm really excited about the team. When I get excited that means there's good things on the horizon. Number one, I'm used to winning. And, again, this team is going to be young, but I think we have a nice mixture. And I think a lot is going to depend on how these guys come about, how they come along.

I think the Canadian trip, it gave me an idea the potential of this team. And so now what we've done now is just we roll up our sleeves. Went back in the gym. We've been doing two-a-days they like that because I cut that out, this is the last of two-a-days but they've been working extremely hard. This team is going to be one of those teams, they're going to bring their helmets to the game every single night. I think when you bring that you'll give yourself a chance.

With that being said, I think we've got a chance to really develop this year and with our schedule we've got a lot of different kind of tests.
Early on we play in the Puerto Rican shootout, opened up against an Xavier team that was in the Elite Eight in that tournament and also is Southern Cal. Memphis, Seton Hall. You name it, you've got some great teams. Virginia Tech. So those are going to be some tremendous tests for us early on, and we'll get tested.

California coming into the Mizzou Arena. I'm excited about that. The Border War series, every year against Illinois and of course we play on the road against Georgia. So I think the development of our basketball team, hopefully with that schedule, it will get us really, really ready for the Big 12, which I think is going to be good this year as well.

The Missourian's got more.  So does the KC Star (in a less patient tone).  And the Post-Dispatch (though they call us "Missouri University", which sounds all sorts of weird).

This week's edition of Crossfire welcomes our SBN colleagues from The Ralphie Report to RMN for a taste of what we can expect when the Buffaloes roll into Columbia at 5:30 on Saturday.

RMN: We've got to start with the big question right now: What's brewing with the quarterback situation in Boulder right now? How does the Colorado offense differ from Hawkins to Hansen?

RR: Well, I would say it is far from a controversy. Tyler Hansen and Cody Hawkins are going to split time against Mizzou even though Dan Hawkins hates to have rotating quarterbacks. But he knows that Hansen offers something more dynamic to the Buffs offense . As far as how the two quarterbacks are taking the news, Cody Hawkins is a true team player. He honestly only cares about winning so I don't see him disowning his dad anytime soon. Hansen is just along for the ride.

The Colorado offense is better with Hansen in it for a couple reasons. First of all, the Buffs are decimated on the offensive line losing two starters this year already and four reserve players to injury, suspension, defection etc. The offensive line is very inexperienced so they need a quarterback who can make a play with his feet and the 4.6 forty quarterback in Hansen offers this poor man's version of the spread offense a little more variability. Second, Hansen is taller and has a better arm so he has the ability to throw from the pocket, something that the Buffs couldn't do with Cody Hawkins and not come out of the game with 5 tipped balls at the line of scrimmage. Cody still brings good experience to the table and frankly, we might not be 4 - 3 if he doesn't complete a big 3rd down pass with about 2 minutes to go last week.

RMN: Colorado is dead last in the Big 12 in scoring offense and total offense. Who's to blame for the offensive inefficiency?

RR: You name it, we have a problem. I wouldn't put the blame on anyone in particular. There is enough blame to spread around:

1. See my note in the first question about the youth and injuries to the offensive line so far this year. The Buffs are currently starting two red shirt freshmen and a sophomore who was a tight end last year. The offensive line is so decimated right now that the Buffs have started to move defensive lineman over to the offensive side of the ball (DT Eugene Goree) and actually playing him in the game.
   
2. Cody Hawkins - he has not gotten it done this year, partly because of the offensive line problems and partly because he just isn't elite. He doesn't have the physical tools. Basically, Cody hasn't been a consistent playmaker hence the change at quarterback. If Cody makes plays, the Buffs beat FSU and it is a different season.
   
3. Lack of Offensive Playmakers - WR Josh Smith and RB Rodney Stewart are the only playmakers on this team right now. There is no Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin or Chase Coffman for CU. QB Tyler Hansen can be a playmaker but he is a true freshman.
   
4. Play Calling - it got better last week with Hansen in the game but it still isn't good and doesn't feature our limited playmakers enough.
   

More questions after the jump

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Alright, I guess I've talked about other conferences long enough.  I haven't given myself enough time to crank through the non-BCS conference (and anybody who knows me well, knows there's nothing I enjoy more than pretending I know a lot about the Eastern Michigan's and San Jose State's of the world), so I'll just do a Big 12 preview (set up like the others, only with links to my BTBS posts about Mizzou's 8 conference opponents) and uncork an overall national preview post next week.

North Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Defensive Points Per Play
• Redzone Defense
• Q4 Rushing Offense
  
• 3rd Down Defense
  

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q3 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q3 Passing S&P+
#4: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#104: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#103: Defensive Q3 S&P+
#99: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#96: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+, Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

You want to know how Mizzou differs from the stereotypical "spread offense, no defense" team?  Check out some of the '+' rankings in which they ranked in the Top 20. On offense, there was Close-Game Rushing S&P+, Rushing S&P+, and 3rd Down Rushing S&P+/Line Yards+.  On defense, there was Overall EqPts+, Close-Game Overall S&P+, Overall S&P+.  After a poor overall non-conference performance, the Mizzou defense really was one of the best in the country over the last 10 games of the season.  And the rushing offense was solid too.  They had almost no weakness from October onward.

So what does that mean for 2008?  Defensively, good things.  Lots of good things.  Even if they start slow again (and with so little new blood, you have to like the chances of avoiding that), this defense should end up in the Top 20 overall by end-of-season. One thing that Missouri did defensively better than just about any team in the country in '07 was take away its opponent's #1 (and sometimes #2) weapon.  Juice Williams & Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Purify & Marlon Lucky, Allen Patrick (and to an extent, Malcolm Kelly, though he still did rather well), Michael Crabtree, Todd Blythe, whoever Colorado's #1 weapon was, Jordy Nelson, Brandon McAnderson & Marcus Henry, Darren McFadden & Felix Jones. Just about everybody mentioned had extremely poor games against Missouri, at least until the game was out of hand in Q4.  If you had a good #3 or #4 option, you could move the ball against Mizzou.  But even then, your odds of major success using those options instead of your #1 or #2 are still limited.

I haven't mentioned the offense yet, but...well, you have to figure things are going to go just fine there.  Yes, there are a couple of new components--a RSFr left tackle and the first new starting center since 2004, for instance.  Plus, Tony Temple and Martin Rucker are gone.  Mizzou fans have extremely high hopes in their replacements (and in the case of Rucker's replacement, Chase Coffman is already almost more accomplished than Rucker anyway), but you never know what you're going to get until they show it on the field. 

Either way, though, an offense with Chase Daniel at the helm is going to succeed, and likely succeed big. If 2007 is any indication, there's one way to beat a Chase Daniel-led Missouri team: have a monstrous D-line, and hit Chase a lot.  Really, only two teams on the '08 schedule have really good lines--Illinois and Texas.  Illinois' is still as much about potential and athleticism as anything else, and Texas' was much better against the run than the pass, but those are the two biggest hurdles on the slate.

Verdict: While they may not be receiving any first-place votes, Missouri is as dangerous and proven as any team in the nation's Top Tier (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Mizzou, OU, USC, Ohio State).  They have a Heisman candidate at QB, speed speed speed at WR, the best hands in the country at TE (Coffman), a proven D-line, toughness and speed at LB (led by Sean Weatherspoon), an already-grizzled lock-down CB (Carl Gettis), and the best safety in the country (William Moore)...not to mention the most dangerous return man in the country (Jeremy Maclin) and the most consistent kicker in the Big 12 (Jeff Wolfert).  Barring a complete breakdown on the O-line, or a series of (KNOCK ON WOOD) injuries, Mizzou's got the talent to go undefeated and will be favored in at least 11 of the 12 games on their schedule.  They are, for 2008 at least, the class of the Big 12 North.

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It was a strange, strange year for Colorado in '07.  On its face--a lackluster offense and sporadically strong defense leading a team to a 6-7 season--seems anything but strange...predictable, even.  But with upsets of Oklahoma and Texas Tech bunched around a loss to Iowa State and a pummeling by Kansas State...plus a close call against woeful Colorado State and an attempted 2005 Missouri 'disappearing act' impersonation in the Independence Bowl (except they sucked a little too long and didn't come back quite enough)...this was not your typical .500(ish) season.  And the numbers pretty much show you the same thing.

Initial Stat Onslaught

EqPts Scores by Game

9/1: Colorado State 30.1, Colorado 14.4 (actual score: 28-31)
9/8: Arizona State 25.2, Colorado 6.4 (33-14)
9/15: Colorado 8.7, Florida State 8.2 (6-16)
9/22: Colorado 46.2, Miami-OH 2.7 (42-0)
9/29: Colorado 21.0, Oklahoma 8.2 (27-24)
10/6: Baylor 23.8, Colorado 21.1 (23-43)
10/13: Kansas State 25.9, Colorado 14.1 (47-20)
10/20: Colorado 18.9, Kansas 14.8 (14-19)
10/27: Texas Tech 25.9, Colorado 24.3 (26-31)
11/3: Missouri 47.6, Colorado -1.6 (55-10)
11/10: Colorado 23.3, Iowa State 21.9 (28-31)
11/23: Colorado 46.6, Nebraska 43.9 (65-51)
12/30: Colorado 26.4, Alabama 16.6 (24-30)

A crazy year for the Buffs.  They won three games they should have lost (Colorado State, Baylor, Texas Tech), and they lost four games they should have won (Florida State, Kansas, Iowa State, Alabama).  Of course, this is what happens when you play six games that are decided by a TD or less.  Close games are determined as much by special teams, turnovers, and luck as anything else.

The '+' Numbers...

Offense

EqPts+: 91.86 (#76 in the country)
Rushing EqPts+: 96.59 (#67)
Passing EqPts+: 91.64 (#66)

S&P+: 89.40 (#87)
Rushing S&P+: 84.74 (#91)
Passing S&P+: 92.29 (#76)

S&P+ (close): 94.84 (#74)
Rushing S&P+ (close): 69.58 (#115)
Passing S&P+ (close): 107.22 (#47)

Q1 S&P+: 93.07 (#77)
Q2 S&P+: 95.92 (#71)
Q3 S&P+: 95.67 (#74)
Q4 S&P+: 78.76 (#108)

1st Down S&P+: 92.88 (#85)
2nd Down S&P+: 89.60 (#85)
3rd Down S&P+: 69.65 (#100)

Passing Downs S&P+: 96.84 (#63)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+:89.71 (#97)

Line Yards+: 86.88 (#112)
Line Yards+ (close): 82.47 (#115)

Rather confusing numbers here.  In close games, Colorado was actually a decent passing team and an absolutely wretched rushing team.  EqPts-wise, though, they were entirely average in both rushing and passing.  I think the story this tells is that Colorado scored when they were set up well by their defense/special teams. 

In all, though, the other story this tells is that Colorado's offense was really not very good at all.  And that's backed up somewhat by this quiz question: name another returning CU offensive player besides Cody Nolte-Hawkins.  You probably can't do it.  If you can, it's probably WR Josh Smith that you name...and you only know him because his cousin is Darrell Scott.  There will be all sorts of playing time available to redshirt freshmen and incoming recruits...to say the least.

Defense

EqPts+: 97.73 (#71)
Rushing EqPts+: 79.92 (#84)
Passing EqPts+: 118.82 (#35)

S&P+: 96.09 (#72)
Rushing S&P+: 83.14 (#88)
Passing S&P+: 96.09 (#72)

S&P+ (close): 104.94 (#57)
Rushing S&P+ (close): 111.27 (#42)
Passing S&P+ (close): 100.86 (#63)

Q1 S&P+: 124.34 (#20)
Q2 S&P+: 105.74 (#43)
Q3 S&P+: 89.82 (#82)
Q4 S&P+: 122.52 (#14)

1st Down S&P+: 95.69 (#67)
2nd Down S&P+: 115.71 (#29)
3rd Down S&P+: 117.01 (#29)

Passing Downs S&P+: 114.50 (#37)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+: 101.02 (#56)

Line Yards+: 97.75 (#60)
Line Yards+ (close): 106.00 (#41)

So CU returns most of its leading tacklers outside of Jordan Dizon.  In a bit, we'll take a look at who made the big plays for CU when CU was actually making big plays, but...I think what these numbers are telling us is that...well, CU didn't really make many big plays.  They were good in the first quarter (Mizzou can attest to that)...they were good on 2nd and 3rd downs...but a team with patience (i.e. a team that didn't crumble if at first they didn't succeed in Q1, and a team that took the yards given to them on first down) could more or less move the ball at will against the Buffs.

This team reached 6 wins and a bowl, mostly by a) performing pretty well when the game was close (but when the wheels fell off, they really fell off), and b) taking advantage of the opportunities they got.  Over a 60-minute span, though, this was a mediocre squad.  Lucky for Dan Hawkins, he appears to be recruiting well.

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Quite a bit of debate going on about a) when Colorado will break through with Dan "Nick Nolte" Hawkins (2008? 2009?) and b) just how far they're capable of breaking through.  We'll start to take a look at that this week.

As always...we'll start with the 2007 stats (pdf).  In the end, Colorado was wholly mediocre in 2007.  Their upset of OU and continued dominance of Texas Tech overshadowed losses in Ames (31-28) and Manhattan (47-20!), and they pretty much crapped the bed in the Independence Bowl before rallying late. Oh yeah, and they got rolled by Mizzou.

All their major stats were pretty much stalemates.  They averaged 19.5 first downs wihle allowing 19.7.  They gained 377.0 yards per game while allowing 389.4.  They scored 27.6, allowed 29.4.  Guess all this explains the .500 record, huh? (For some strange reason, CU doesn't count bowl stats in their overall stats...didn't realize schools could choose not to do that.  Whatever.)

Cody Nolte-Hawkins was decent for a freshman, completing 56.4% of his passes for 6.4 yards per pass and a 19-15 TD-INT ratio.  He took quite a few positive steps early on before faltering a bit down the stretch.  It was hard for me to gauge his potential because he did make quite a few freshman mistakes, plus he really didn't have anybody to throw to--his leading receivers were Scotty McKnight, Tyson DeVree, Dusty Sprague, and Patrick Williams, none of whom are world beaters.

On defense, the question is and will continue to be...just how much will CU miss Jordan Dizon (and for that matter, Terrance Wheatley)?  Most of their leading tacklers not named Dizon--S Daniel Dykes, LBs Jeff Smart & Brad Jones, DB Ryan Walters--return, but Dizon was a machine for the Buffs.

So obviously the most encouraging news for the Buffs during the 2008 offseason was the signing of everybody's #1 running back, Darrell Scott.

How quickly Scott (and the other RBs they signed) can hit the ground running (ha!) will very much determine how good CU's 2008 offense is.  Hugh Charles was shifty and rather fun to watch, but he wasn't amazing...and none of CUs returning RBs/WRs have shown much big-time potential.  If Scott is more Adrian Peterson than Joe McKnight (i.e. if he's big-time from Game #1 instead of developing as the season progresses), it could make the difference between a #2 finish in the North and a #4-5 finish.  One thing's for certain: he's fast.  And he's CU's biggest signee since Darian Hagan.

In a conference with Mike Leach, you're never going to get top billing in the 'crazy' department, but...let's not slight Dan Hawkins in that department.

Get your first look at Darrell Scott on a Sunday.

Spring game report: Black 28, Gold 17 (and I must say, I'm very impressed with CU drawing 17K+ to the spring game...they had plenty of other things they could be doing in Boulder on a Saturday in April...plus, the times I've been to Boulder the crowd hasn't really cared to show up until Q2, so...again, kudos).  The passing game was clicking, though that probably had as much to do with spring injuries to the secondary as much as anything.

It hasn't been the best offseason in Boulder when it comes to the relationships between Buffs and cops, but...well, it wasn't exactly a pristine winter for us either, so I guess I won't say much.

One other obstacle to CU's 2008 breakthrough: the schedule.

In conference play, the Buffs must travel to Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Nebraska. Any record other than 1-3 in that stretch is hopelessly optimistic. Texas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State must come to Boulder, so the Buffs must take care of business at home. That’s not a given either by the way. In the new century, Colorado is a very average 27-19 in home games. That winning percentage ranks ahead of only Baylor among Big 12 teams. That’s very surprising considering the elevation in Boulder. But I digress. The non-conference slate is not easy either. The Buffs host a likely top-10 foe in West Virginia and travel to Jacksonville to take on Florida State.

Finally...I mean, come on...I'm not the only one who sees this, right?

Not sure how I resisted posting this (or this), but I did.