Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football.  Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season.  Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons.  Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers.  Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge.  Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs.  Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility.  While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened.  And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected.  Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived.  Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen.  Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous.  Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009.  Daniel and Harrell?  Gone.  Crabtree and Maclin?  Almost certainly gone.  McCoy, Bradford, Freeman?  Possibly gone.  Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris?  Gone.  Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility.  So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus.  Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion."  For '09?  "New"  Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009.  We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009.  We'll start with the North Division.  To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers.  There will certainly be a time and place for that.  Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings.  And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits.  Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy.  Plus, you'll probably be wrong.  Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

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It was a strange, strange year for Colorado in '07.  On its face--a lackluster offense and sporadically strong defense leading a team to a 6-7 season--seems anything but strange...predictable, even.  But with upsets of Oklahoma and Texas Tech bunched around a loss to Iowa State and a pummeling by Kansas State...plus a close call against woeful Colorado State and an attempted 2005 Missouri 'disappearing act' impersonation in the Independence Bowl (except they sucked a little too long and didn't come back quite enough)...this was not your typical .500(ish) season.  And the numbers pretty much show you the same thing.

Initial Stat Onslaught

EqPts Scores by Game

9/1: Colorado State 30.1, Colorado 14.4 (actual score: 28-31)
9/8: Arizona State 25.2, Colorado 6.4 (33-14)
9/15: Colorado 8.7, Florida State 8.2 (6-16)
9/22: Colorado 46.2, Miami-OH 2.7 (42-0)
9/29: Colorado 21.0, Oklahoma 8.2 (27-24)
10/6: Baylor 23.8, Colorado 21.1 (23-43)
10/13: Kansas State 25.9, Colorado 14.1 (47-20)
10/20: Colorado 18.9, Kansas 14.8 (14-19)
10/27: Texas Tech 25.9, Colorado 24.3 (26-31)
11/3: Missouri 47.6, Colorado -1.6 (55-10)
11/10: Colorado 23.3, Iowa State 21.9 (28-31)
11/23: Colorado 46.6, Nebraska 43.9 (65-51)
12/30: Colorado 26.4, Alabama 16.6 (24-30)

A crazy year for the Buffs.  They won three games they should have lost (Colorado State, Baylor, Texas Tech), and they lost four games they should have won (Florida State, Kansas, Iowa State, Alabama).  Of course, this is what happens when you play six games that are decided by a TD or less.  Close games are determined as much by special teams, turnovers, and luck as anything else.

The '+' Numbers...

Offense

EqPts+: 91.86 (#76 in the country)
Rushing EqPts+: 96.59 (#67)
Passing EqPts+: 91.64 (#66)

S&P+: 89.40 (#87)
Rushing S&P+: 84.74 (#91)
Passing S&P+: 92.29 (#76)

S&P+ (close): 94.84 (#74)
Rushing S&P+ (close): 69.58 (#115)
Passing S&P+ (close): 107.22 (#47)

Q1 S&P+: 93.07 (#77)
Q2 S&P+: 95.92 (#71)
Q3 S&P+: 95.67 (#74)
Q4 S&P+: 78.76 (#108)

1st Down S&P+: 92.88 (#85)
2nd Down S&P+: 89.60 (#85)
3rd Down S&P+: 69.65 (#100)

Passing Downs S&P+: 96.84 (#63)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+:89.71 (#97)

Line Yards+: 86.88 (#112)
Line Yards+ (close): 82.47 (#115)

Rather confusing numbers here.  In close games, Colorado was actually a decent passing team and an absolutely wretched rushing team.  EqPts-wise, though, they were entirely average in both rushing and passing.  I think the story this tells is that Colorado scored when they were set up well by their defense/special teams. 

In all, though, the other story this tells is that Colorado's offense was really not very good at all.  And that's backed up somewhat by this quiz question: name another returning CU offensive player besides Cody Nolte-Hawkins.  You probably can't do it.  If you can, it's probably WR Josh Smith that you name...and you only know him because his cousin is Darrell Scott.  There will be all sorts of playing time available to redshirt freshmen and incoming recruits...to say the least.

Defense

EqPts+: 97.73 (#71)
Rushing EqPts+: 79.92 (#84)
Passing EqPts+: 118.82 (#35)

S&P+: 96.09 (#72)
Rushing S&P+: 83.14 (#88)
Passing S&P+: 96.09 (#72)

S&P+ (close): 104.94 (#57)
Rushing S&P+ (close): 111.27 (#42)
Passing S&P+ (close): 100.86 (#63)

Q1 S&P+: 124.34 (#20)
Q2 S&P+: 105.74 (#43)
Q3 S&P+: 89.82 (#82)
Q4 S&P+: 122.52 (#14)

1st Down S&P+: 95.69 (#67)
2nd Down S&P+: 115.71 (#29)
3rd Down S&P+: 117.01 (#29)

Passing Downs S&P+: 114.50 (#37)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+: 101.02 (#56)

Line Yards+: 97.75 (#60)
Line Yards+ (close): 106.00 (#41)

So CU returns most of its leading tacklers outside of Jordan Dizon.  In a bit, we'll take a look at who made the big plays for CU when CU was actually making big plays, but...I think what these numbers are telling us is that...well, CU didn't really make many big plays.  They were good in the first quarter (Mizzou can attest to that)...they were good on 2nd and 3rd downs...but a team with patience (i.e. a team that didn't crumble if at first they didn't succeed in Q1, and a team that took the yards given to them on first down) could more or less move the ball at will against the Buffs.

This team reached 6 wins and a bowl, mostly by a) performing pretty well when the game was close (but when the wheels fell off, they really fell off), and b) taking advantage of the opportunities they got.  Over a 60-minute span, though, this was a mediocre squad.  Lucky for Dan Hawkins, he appears to be recruiting well.

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Quite a bit of debate going on about a) when Colorado will break through with Dan "Nick Nolte" Hawkins (2008? 2009?) and b) just how far they're capable of breaking through.  We'll start to take a look at that this week.

As always...we'll start with the 2007 stats (pdf).  In the end, Colorado was wholly mediocre in 2007.  Their upset of OU and continued dominance of Texas Tech overshadowed losses in Ames (31-28) and Manhattan (47-20!), and they pretty much crapped the bed in the Independence Bowl before rallying late. Oh yeah, and they got rolled by Mizzou.

All their major stats were pretty much stalemates.  They averaged 19.5 first downs wihle allowing 19.7.  They gained 377.0 yards per game while allowing 389.4.  They scored 27.6, allowed 29.4.  Guess all this explains the .500 record, huh? (For some strange reason, CU doesn't count bowl stats in their overall stats...didn't realize schools could choose not to do that.  Whatever.)

Cody Nolte-Hawkins was decent for a freshman, completing 56.4% of his passes for 6.4 yards per pass and a 19-15 TD-INT ratio.  He took quite a few positive steps early on before faltering a bit down the stretch.  It was hard for me to gauge his potential because he did make quite a few freshman mistakes, plus he really didn't have anybody to throw to--his leading receivers were Scotty McKnight, Tyson DeVree, Dusty Sprague, and Patrick Williams, none of whom are world beaters.

On defense, the question is and will continue to be...just how much will CU miss Jordan Dizon (and for that matter, Terrance Wheatley)?  Most of their leading tacklers not named Dizon--S Daniel Dykes, LBs Jeff Smart & Brad Jones, DB Ryan Walters--return, but Dizon was a machine for the Buffs.

So obviously the most encouraging news for the Buffs during the 2008 offseason was the signing of everybody's #1 running back, Darrell Scott.

How quickly Scott (and the other RBs they signed) can hit the ground running (ha!) will very much determine how good CU's 2008 offense is.  Hugh Charles was shifty and rather fun to watch, but he wasn't amazing...and none of CUs returning RBs/WRs have shown much big-time potential.  If Scott is more Adrian Peterson than Joe McKnight (i.e. if he's big-time from Game #1 instead of developing as the season progresses), it could make the difference between a #2 finish in the North and a #4-5 finish.  One thing's for certain: he's fast.  And he's CU's biggest signee since Darian Hagan.

In a conference with Mike Leach, you're never going to get top billing in the 'crazy' department, but...let's not slight Dan Hawkins in that department.

Get your first look at Darrell Scott on a Sunday.

Spring game report: Black 28, Gold 17 (and I must say, I'm very impressed with CU drawing 17K+ to the spring game...they had plenty of other things they could be doing in Boulder on a Saturday in April...plus, the times I've been to Boulder the crowd hasn't really cared to show up until Q2, so...again, kudos).  The passing game was clicking, though that probably had as much to do with spring injuries to the secondary as much as anything.

It hasn't been the best offseason in Boulder when it comes to the relationships between Buffs and cops, but...well, it wasn't exactly a pristine winter for us either, so I guess I won't say much.

One other obstacle to CU's 2008 breakthrough: the schedule.

In conference play, the Buffs must travel to Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Nebraska. Any record other than 1-3 in that stretch is hopelessly optimistic. Texas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State must come to Boulder, so the Buffs must take care of business at home. That’s not a given either by the way. In the new century, Colorado is a very average 27-19 in home games. That winning percentage ranks ahead of only Baylor among Big 12 teams. That’s very surprising considering the elevation in Boulder. But I digress. The non-conference slate is not easy either. The Buffs host a likely top-10 foe in West Virginia and travel to Jacksonville to take on Florida State.

Finally...I mean, come on...I'm not the only one who sees this, right?

Not sure how I resisted posting this (or this), but I did.