Yesterday, it was North Offenses.  Today, North Defenses.

Defensive Lines

1. Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
2. Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
3. Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
4. Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
5. Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
6. Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)

That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers.  KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable.  Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.

Linebackers

1. Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
2. Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
   
3. Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
4. Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
5. Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
6. Kansas (?)

I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong.  If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009.  Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has.  Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average.  NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.

Defensive Backs

1. Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
2. Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
3. Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
4. Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
5. Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
6. Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)

Oy.  If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary.  I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs.  Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson.  But only Carl Gettis will be proven.

Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.

North Defenses, 2009

1. Nebraska (15)
2. Missouri (12)
3. Kansas State (11)
4. Iowa State (10)
5. Kansas (9)
6. Colorado (6)

As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths.  Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters.  Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense.  Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here.  Big-time tossup.  A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.

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A couple quick notes about additions before we launch into the stat orgy that is the BTBS Preview.

• I've added "Sack Rates" back into the mix now.  Not sure why I didn't earlier, but they're there now.  Sack Rate = Sacks / (Pass Attempts + Sacks)
• I've also added a "Run Rate" measure looking at Passing Downs and Non-Passing Downs.  Run Rate = Rushes / Total Plays.  Easy enough, right?  Among other things, this looks at how aggressive or conservative an offense is, and/or how much it tends to respect the defense it's opposing.  If your Run Rate is pretty high on Passing Downs, that suggests that you really don't trust that you can throw the ball downfield without a disaster.
• I changed "Total Turnover Points Margin" to "Turnover Points Margin per Game".  The numbers were getting pretty big, and it was easy to lose track of what the turnovers have meant on a game-to-game basis.

Alright...orgy time!  I should note that CUbuffs.com has a fantastic PDF of season stats as well.  I wish every school went into this much detail.

Thoughts after the jump.

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It was a strange, strange year for Colorado in '07.  On its face--a lackluster offense and sporadically strong defense leading a team to a 6-7 season--seems anything but strange...predictable, even.  But with upsets of Oklahoma and Texas Tech bunched around a loss to Iowa State and a pummeling by Kansas State...plus a close call against woeful Colorado State and an attempted 2005 Missouri 'disappearing act' impersonation in the Independence Bowl (except they sucked a little too long and didn't come back quite enough)...this was not your typical .500(ish) season.  And the numbers pretty much show you the same thing.

Initial Stat Onslaught

EqPts Scores by Game

9/1: Colorado State 30.1, Colorado 14.4 (actual score: 28-31)
9/8: Arizona State 25.2, Colorado 6.4 (33-14)
9/15: Colorado 8.7, Florida State 8.2 (6-16)
9/22: Colorado 46.2, Miami-OH 2.7 (42-0)
9/29: Colorado 21.0, Oklahoma 8.2 (27-24)
10/6: Baylor 23.8, Colorado 21.1 (23-43)
10/13: Kansas State 25.9, Colorado 14.1 (47-20)
10/20: Colorado 18.9, Kansas 14.8 (14-19)
10/27: Texas Tech 25.9, Colorado 24.3 (26-31)
11/3: Missouri 47.6, Colorado -1.6 (55-10)
11/10: Colorado 23.3, Iowa State 21.9 (28-31)
11/23: Colorado 46.6, Nebraska 43.9 (65-51)
12/30: Colorado 26.4, Alabama 16.6 (24-30)

A crazy year for the Buffs.  They won three games they should have lost (Colorado State, Baylor, Texas Tech), and they lost four games they should have won (Florida State, Kansas, Iowa State, Alabama).  Of course, this is what happens when you play six games that are decided by a TD or less.  Close games are determined as much by special teams, turnovers, and luck as anything else.

The '+' Numbers...

Offense

EqPts+: 91.86 (#76 in the country)
Rushing EqPts+: 96.59 (#67)
Passing EqPts+: 91.64 (#66)

S&P+: 89.40 (#87)
Rushing S&P+: 84.74 (#91)
Passing S&P+: 92.29 (#76)

S&P+ (close): 94.84 (#74)
Rushing S&P+ (close): 69.58 (#115)
Passing S&P+ (close): 107.22 (#47)

Q1 S&P+: 93.07 (#77)
Q2 S&P+: 95.92 (#71)
Q3 S&P+: 95.67 (#74)
Q4 S&P+: 78.76 (#108)

1st Down S&P+: 92.88 (#85)
2nd Down S&P+: 89.60 (#85)
3rd Down S&P+: 69.65 (#100)

Passing Downs S&P+: 96.84 (#63)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+:89.71 (#97)

Line Yards+: 86.88 (#112)
Line Yards+ (close): 82.47 (#115)

Rather confusing numbers here.  In close games, Colorado was actually a decent passing team and an absolutely wretched rushing team.  EqPts-wise, though, they were entirely average in both rushing and passing.  I think the story this tells is that Colorado scored when they were set up well by their defense/special teams. 

In all, though, the other story this tells is that Colorado's offense was really not very good at all.  And that's backed up somewhat by this quiz question: name another returning CU offensive player besides Cody Nolte-Hawkins.  You probably can't do it.  If you can, it's probably WR Josh Smith that you name...and you only know him because his cousin is Darrell Scott.  There will be all sorts of playing time available to redshirt freshmen and incoming recruits...to say the least.

Defense

EqPts+: 97.73 (#71)
Rushing EqPts+: 79.92 (#84)
Passing EqPts+: 118.82 (#35)

S&P+: 96.09 (#72)
Rushing S&P+: 83.14 (#88)
Passing S&P+: 96.09 (#72)

S&P+ (close): 104.94 (#57)
Rushing S&P+ (close): 111.27 (#42)
Passing S&P+ (close): 100.86 (#63)

Q1 S&P+: 124.34 (#20)
Q2 S&P+: 105.74 (#43)
Q3 S&P+: 89.82 (#82)
Q4 S&P+: 122.52 (#14)

1st Down S&P+: 95.69 (#67)
2nd Down S&P+: 115.71 (#29)
3rd Down S&P+: 117.01 (#29)

Passing Downs S&P+: 114.50 (#37)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+: 101.02 (#56)

Line Yards+: 97.75 (#60)
Line Yards+ (close): 106.00 (#41)

So CU returns most of its leading tacklers outside of Jordan Dizon.  In a bit, we'll take a look at who made the big plays for CU when CU was actually making big plays, but...I think what these numbers are telling us is that...well, CU didn't really make many big plays.  They were good in the first quarter (Mizzou can attest to that)...they were good on 2nd and 3rd downs...but a team with patience (i.e. a team that didn't crumble if at first they didn't succeed in Q1, and a team that took the yards given to them on first down) could more or less move the ball at will against the Buffs.

This team reached 6 wins and a bowl, mostly by a) performing pretty well when the game was close (but when the wheels fell off, they really fell off), and b) taking advantage of the opportunities they got.  Over a 60-minute span, though, this was a mediocre squad.  Lucky for Dan Hawkins, he appears to be recruiting well.

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