Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football.  Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season.  Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons.  Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers.  Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge.  Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs.  Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility.  While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened.  And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected.  Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived.  Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen.  Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous.  Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009.  Daniel and Harrell?  Gone.  Crabtree and Maclin?  Almost certainly gone.  McCoy, Bradford, Freeman?  Possibly gone.  Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris?  Gone.  Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility.  So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus.  Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion."  For '09?  "New"  Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009.  We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009.  We'll start with the North Division.  To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers.  There will certainly be a time and place for that.  Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings.  And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits.  Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy.  Plus, you'll probably be wrong.  Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

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Alright, I guess I've talked about other conferences long enough.  I haven't given myself enough time to crank through the non-BCS conference (and anybody who knows me well, knows there's nothing I enjoy more than pretending I know a lot about the Eastern Michigan's and San Jose State's of the world), so I'll just do a Big 12 preview (set up like the others, only with links to my BTBS posts about Mizzou's 8 conference opponents) and uncork an overall national preview post next week.

North Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Defensive Points Per Play
• Redzone Defense
• Q4 Rushing Offense
  
• 3rd Down Defense
  

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q3 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q3 Passing S&P+
#4: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#104: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#103: Defensive Q3 S&P+
#99: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#96: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+, Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

You want to know how Mizzou differs from the stereotypical "spread offense, no defense" team?  Check out some of the '+' rankings in which they ranked in the Top 20. On offense, there was Close-Game Rushing S&P+, Rushing S&P+, and 3rd Down Rushing S&P+/Line Yards+.  On defense, there was Overall EqPts+, Close-Game Overall S&P+, Overall S&P+.  After a poor overall non-conference performance, the Mizzou defense really was one of the best in the country over the last 10 games of the season.  And the rushing offense was solid too.  They had almost no weakness from October onward.

So what does that mean for 2008?  Defensively, good things.  Lots of good things.  Even if they start slow again (and with so little new blood, you have to like the chances of avoiding that), this defense should end up in the Top 20 overall by end-of-season. One thing that Missouri did defensively better than just about any team in the country in '07 was take away its opponent's #1 (and sometimes #2) weapon.  Juice Williams & Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Purify & Marlon Lucky, Allen Patrick (and to an extent, Malcolm Kelly, though he still did rather well), Michael Crabtree, Todd Blythe, whoever Colorado's #1 weapon was, Jordy Nelson, Brandon McAnderson & Marcus Henry, Darren McFadden & Felix Jones. Just about everybody mentioned had extremely poor games against Missouri, at least until the game was out of hand in Q4.  If you had a good #3 or #4 option, you could move the ball against Mizzou.  But even then, your odds of major success using those options instead of your #1 or #2 are still limited.

I haven't mentioned the offense yet, but...well, you have to figure things are going to go just fine there.  Yes, there are a couple of new components--a RSFr left tackle and the first new starting center since 2004, for instance.  Plus, Tony Temple and Martin Rucker are gone.  Mizzou fans have extremely high hopes in their replacements (and in the case of Rucker's replacement, Chase Coffman is already almost more accomplished than Rucker anyway), but you never know what you're going to get until they show it on the field. 

Either way, though, an offense with Chase Daniel at the helm is going to succeed, and likely succeed big. If 2007 is any indication, there's one way to beat a Chase Daniel-led Missouri team: have a monstrous D-line, and hit Chase a lot.  Really, only two teams on the '08 schedule have really good lines--Illinois and Texas.  Illinois' is still as much about potential and athleticism as anything else, and Texas' was much better against the run than the pass, but those are the two biggest hurdles on the slate.

Verdict: While they may not be receiving any first-place votes, Missouri is as dangerous and proven as any team in the nation's Top Tier (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Mizzou, OU, USC, Ohio State).  They have a Heisman candidate at QB, speed speed speed at WR, the best hands in the country at TE (Coffman), a proven D-line, toughness and speed at LB (led by Sean Weatherspoon), an already-grizzled lock-down CB (Carl Gettis), and the best safety in the country (William Moore)...not to mention the most dangerous return man in the country (Jeremy Maclin) and the most consistent kicker in the Big 12 (Jeff Wolfert).  Barring a complete breakdown on the O-line, or a series of (KNOCK ON WOOD) injuries, Mizzou's got the talent to go undefeated and will be favored in at least 11 of the 12 games on their schedule.  They are, for 2008 at least, the class of the Big 12 North.

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You don't have to go too far "beyond the box score" to realize that ISU was a gritty...and bad...team last year.  But even so, onward we travel!

EqPts Scores

Iowa State 17.0, Kent State 18.9 (14-23)
Iowa State 21.6, Northern Iowa (FCS Tier 1) 25.1 (13-24)
Iowa State 6.6, Iowa 8.5 (15-13)
Iowa State 28.6, Toledo 24.3 (35-36)
Iowa State 18.6, Nebraska 24.1 (17-35)
Iowa State 9.4, Texas Tech 34.1 (17-42)
Iowa State 6.8, Texas 46.5 (3-56)
Iowa State 6.4, Oklahoma 22.0 (3-17)
Iowa State 24.9, Missouri 29.5 (28-42)
Iowa State 17.5, Kansas State 21.5 (31-20)
Iowa State 21.9, Colorado 23.3 (31-28)
Iowa State 7.8, Kansas 41.8 (7-45)

If you judge a coach by how his team maximizes its performance, I think you'd have to say Gene Chizik did a strong job in squeezing three wins out of this team.  They won three games they should have lost (Iowa, K-State, Colorado), while losing only one they should have won (Toledo).  From an EqPts perspective, they only outscored one team all season.  That's bad.  So while Chizik did a nice job in steering ISU to 3-9...the lack of talent on display had to be pretty alarming for ISU fans.  A lot of coaches struggle in their first year with somebody else's personnel, though, so surely there are some bright spots somewhere, right?

Stat Onslaught

Iowa State Offense (success rate / points per play / S&P)

Rushing: 34.5% / 0.21 / 0.560 (National Avg: 0.762)
Passing: 38.2% / 0.20 / 0.585 (Nat'l Avg: 0.697)
TOTAL: 36.3% / 0.21 / 0.572 (Nat'l Avg: 0.730)

Rushing (close): 32.0% / 0.17 / 0.487 (Nat'l Avg: 0.751)
Passing (close): 39.8% / 0.22 / 0.615 (Nat'l Avg: 0.701)
TOTAL (close): 35.8% / 0.19 / 0.549 (Nat'l Avg: 0.726)

Non-Passing Downs: 42.5% / 0.28 / 0.704 (Nat'l Avg: 0.845)
Passing Downs: 25.5% / 0.09 / 0.342 (Nat'l Avg: 0.483)

Redzone: 41.2% / 0.26 / 0.672 (Nat'l Avg: 0.866)

Q1: 42.3% / 0.18 / 0.601 (Nat'l Avg: 0.709)
Q2: 34.6% / 0.21 / 0.558 (Nat'l Avg: 0.759)
Q3: 32.1% / 0.21 / 0.534 (Nat'l Avg: 0.717)
Q4: 36.3% / 0.23 / 0.593 (Nat'l Avg: 0.734)

1st Down: 36.4% / 0.22 / 0.584 (Nat'l Avg: 0.766)
2nd Down: 30.6% / 0.14 / 0.450 (Nat'l Avg: 0.730)
3rd Down: 41.9% / 0.15 / 0.570 (Nat'l Avg: 0.730)

Pressure (Q4, within two possessions): 25.9% / 0.14 / 0.401

Line Yards: 2.42 per carry (Nat'l Avg: 2.89)
Line Yards (close): 2.48 per carry
Line Yards by Quarter: 2.78 (Q1), 2.57 (Q2), 2.53 (Q3), 1.77 (Q4)

Usually you see that even bad offenses were good at something...well...that doesn't appear to be the case.  As I've said before, Alexander Robinson looked good against Mizzou, and his progress over the course of November had to be a bit encouraging, but as far as team stats go, there was just not much encouraging here at all.

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People treat Iowa State kind of funny right now.  We're all quick to say that Gene Chizik's done a good job so far, and that he could do some good things in Ames; and yet nobody even thinks for a moment that ISU will be involved in any future "balance of power" conversations.  Is that fair?  Unrealistic?  Totally realistic?  The 2008 version of ISU looks like it will somewhat resemble the second-half-of-2007 version: competent, tough...but not overtly talented enough to keep up with most Big 12 opponents.  At least that's what I think at the beginning of the week...we'll see what the Iowa State Week links, stats, roundtables, and Q&As do to change my mind...

First, last year's stats.  Distinct improvement for ISU over the last month, at least offensively.  The 'Clones averaged 24.3 PPG over that period after averaging just 15.1 before that.  The defense regressed slightly (to 33.8 PPG), though that had as much to do with playing three strong offenses (MU, KU, and KSU) as anything else.

A quick perusal of the stat sheet shows you that a) Iowa State has to replace some major contributors in '08--4-year starters QB Bret Meyer and WR Todd Blythe, do-it-all LB Alvin Bowen, etc.--but...well...most of them just weren't that good to begin with.  Blythe was the only true deep threat ISU had, though (only one other WR averaged even 10.0 yards per catch, much less Blythe's 15.0), and that's a major concern.  We see repeatedly just how important easy points are to any team, and I have no idea where those easy points are going to come from.

So who are the 'stars' for Iowa State in 2008?  Chris Singleton is a potential star at CB, coming off a season with 4 INTs and having started every game from the past two seasons.  Meanwhile, Phil Steele likes the other CB, Allen Bell, quite a bit.  Lord knows playing in the Big 12 will pretty quickly prove the value of your CBs.

Mizzou fans may view sophomore RB Alexander Robinson as a potential star (so do readers of Clone Chronicles, who voted for Robinson to start), what with his 149-yard explosion in Columbia last year; however, his game-to-game output leaves something to be desired.  Most projected JJ Bass to be the starter at RB, but he was suspended in the spring and then wasn't listed in this summer's media guide, suggesting his time in Ames is done.  He's still "suspended" instead of "kicked off the team", but...I mean, suspended guys still get listed in the media guide, right?

Anyway, there's uncertainty at QB as well, though in a slightly more healthy way.  No suspensions, just a battle between two youngsters, sophomores Austen Arnaud and the more boringly-named Phillip Bates.  Arnaud (a big boy at 6'3, 222) is slightly more experienced, getting quite a few snaps last year (he ended up with 37 pass attempts and 17 rushes) while Bates was a backup WR (5 catches, 73 yards); however, Bates looked a bit better in the spring.  From the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald:

"I'm really proud of both of them," Chizik said. "You can't have two quarterbacks with both being equally good at the same things. That's unrealistic. There's probably some things Austin is better at right now than Phillip, and vice versa.

"The job will cater more to the things that they are better at, but they still have to run the whole offense. That's the key. We still think, with either quarterback, we can run them. Not only can they run the football, our quarterbacks will have to run the football. That's no secret."

Arnaud is the hometown favorite and was Meyer's understudy the past two seasons. He saw action in six games in 2007, completing 20 of 37 attempts for 267 yards.

Playing receiver, Bates hauled in five receptions for 73 yards last season, including a key 38-yard catch that set up the winning field goal in Iowa State's 15-13 triumph over Iowa.

Say this about Chizik and his team: they're confident.

When you look at their 2008 schedule, it's important, I think, to look at two things: a) how many non-conference wins are available, and b) where are the most likely home upsets in conference?  The answer to (a) is anywhere between 1 and 4, honestly.  South Dakota State is more or less a gimme (though North Dakota State would be a different story), and Kent State should be (though they did lose to them 23-14 last year), as should the trip to UNLV (though road trips will always be a challenge).  That leaves the Iowa game.  ISU has covered the spread against Iowa each of the last four years, including straight-up upsets the last two games in Ames.  This one, however, is in Iowa City, so you figure Iowa will win, but...well, Iowa's program isn't all that healthy itself at the moment, so you never know.

As for (b)...you figure the upset potential of the home games, in order, is 1) Nebraska, 2) Texas A&M, 3) Kansas, 4) Missouri, but all are up for grabs somewhat, as rpt's EA simulation suggested.  Plus, a trip to Waco is in the works, and though Baylor will possibly be favored there...well...trips to Waco are never too daunting.  So I'd probably put the at-first-glance best-case scenario for ISU at 3-5 in conference, 6-6 overall.  I don't know if that would get them a bowl game, but you'd have to consider a 3-game improvement a rousing success.

Finally, camp has begun in Ames, and experience is the tagline from Day One.