You didn't think I forgot about the BTBS preview, did you?

Thoughts after the jump...

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Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football.  Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season.  Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons.  Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers.  Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge.  Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs.  Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility.  While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened.  And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected.  Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived.  Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen.  Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous.  Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009.  Daniel and Harrell?  Gone.  Crabtree and Maclin?  Almost certainly gone.  McCoy, Bradford, Freeman?  Possibly gone.  Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris?  Gone.  Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility.  So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus.  Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion."  For '09?  "New"  Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009.  We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009.  We'll start with the North Division.  To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers.  There will certainly be a time and place for that.  Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings.  And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits.  Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy.  Plus, you'll probably be wrong.  Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

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Atch is out today...he sent in his contribution below...

1 - Three teams remain in the running for the Big 12 South--Texas, OU, and Texas Tech.  Of the three, who would you most rather face in title game, and who would you least rather face?

2 - Wants aside, who do you think we will face?  (And since your answer will be directly impacted by this game, who wins OU-TT this weekend?)

3 - Favorite moment from the 2008 season thus far?

4 - A week later, I'll ask it again: Any thoughts about your local basketball club yet?

5 - Both Missouri and Kansas have ridiculous numbers of freshmen on this year's basketball team...just a week into their respective careers, who's your favorite to this point?

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1 - I'm not going to mention Spit-Gate here (whoops, I just did...scratch that!), but instead I'll ask you this: what was your single favorite moment from last Saturday night's excorcism in Lincoln?

2 - Can OSU slow down Missouri enough on Saturday night to keep it a game late into the fourth quarter?

3 - Kansas-ISU: nice recovery and win by KU or warning sign of bad things to come for the Beakers?

4 - Name me the teams you think could beat Missouri right now (on a neutral field).

5 - Big 12 Picks!

Colorado at Kansas
Nebraska at Texas Tech
Kansas State at Texas A&M
Iowa State at Baylor

And the marquee matchups...

Oklahoma vs Texas
Oklahoma State at Missouri

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As the season progresses, I figure it might be a good idea to take a look at the Big 12 games of the previous week in my "BTBS Box Score" format...see if we can learn a bit about the games that the box scores and recaps don't tell us...I can't say "this will be on Tuesdays" or Wednesdays or any other day--I'll just try to update it at some point throughout the week.

And if you missed yesterday's Mizzou BTBS piece, here it is.

First up...Kansas, of course.

Taking EqPts into account, the margin for this one was USF +6.66.  The game was really decided by two things: Todd Reesing's Favre-esque INT at the end of the game, and KU's complete ineffectiveness running the ball.  Jake Sharp and Jocques Crawford combined for just 26 yards on 9 carries, and for some reason Angus "The Answer" Quigley only got 3 carries (for 22 yards).  They abandoned the run (the Run-Pass ratio was 21-51), and while they were able to produce a couple good plays on passing downs, KU was just outleveraged by USF as the game wore on. 

Nice resiliency by the Jayhawks to come back and tie the game after giving up 31 straight points, but USF deserved the win in this one, and honestly KU just didn't have what I thought they had.  The pass defense was suspect (something I certainly like to see as a Mizzou fan), and the running game was nonexistant.

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A few quick Big 12 recaps and comments for you...

• Nebraska 35, San Jose State 12 - SJSU got it to 14-12 early in Q4 until NU finally kicked it into gear.  Marlon Lucky's Heisman campaign isn't going well.  Nor is his All-Conference campaign.  Corn Nation looks at the goods and bads.
  
• Colorado 31, Eastern Washington 24 - Well...I guess almost losing to EWU is better than losing to EWU.  Darrell Scott struggled to get going, but I'm wondering how much of that is the O-line.  Ralphie Report looks at CU's first-down struggles.
  
• Iowa State 48, Kent State 28 - REVENGE!!!  Though for the second straight week, ISU's scoreboard blowout didn't match the stats.  Clone Chronicles analyzes what's up.
  
• Kansas 29, Louisiana Tech 0 - If I'm a KU fan (and I'm very much not), I'm starting to get really, really worried about the running game.  3rd-stringer Angus Quigley did well after Jake Sharp and Jocques Crawford combined for 39 yards on 14 carries.  But the defense is obviously looking good.  A nice recap at Rock Chalk Talk.
  
• Kansas State 69, Montana State 10 - Three return TDs + really bad opponent = 59-point win.
• Oklahoma 52, Cincinnati 26 - Cincy acquitted themselves relatively well, but my buddy's predictions of greatness for Ryan Broyles turned out to be pretty accurate.  CC Machine has some initial reactions...
  
• Texas Tech 35, Nevada 19 - Graham Harrell was only 19-for-46, and Colin Kaepernick had 350+ total yards, which means I'm looking forward to next week.  I'm not scared of a loss, but I'm looking forward to an interesting challenge.  Double T with thoughts and links.
  
• Texas 42, UTEP 13 - Watched some of this one.  Colt McCoy is at his best when he's running around and improvising, and he looked good last night (as did Quan Cosby).  The defense still has some improving to do, but they continuously came up with big hits when they needed to.  Nothing postgame-ish at BON yet, but I'm sure it's coming...
• Oklahoma State 56, Houston 37 - Nothing like putting up 42 points in the second half to blow open a tight game.  Kendall Hunter (210 yards rushing) and Dez Bryant (236 receiving) looked, shall we say, solid.
• Texas A&M 28, New Mexico 22 - The Jerrod Johnson era begins.  A&M's defense confused UNM's QB (Porterie) pretty well, making up for the injuries to Stephen McGee and Mike Goodson.
  
• Baylor 51, Northwestern State 6 - Check out Robert Griffin's numbers.  Even against a 1-AA opponent, he looked pretty outstanding for a true freshman.  I'm not saying Baylor's an emerging threat or anything, but they might at least resemble a real team soon.

Alright, I guess I've talked about other conferences long enough.  I haven't given myself enough time to crank through the non-BCS conference (and anybody who knows me well, knows there's nothing I enjoy more than pretending I know a lot about the Eastern Michigan's and San Jose State's of the world), so I'll just do a Big 12 preview (set up like the others, only with links to my BTBS posts about Mizzou's 8 conference opponents) and uncork an overall national preview post next week.

North Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Defensive Points Per Play
• Redzone Defense
• Q4 Rushing Offense
  
• 3rd Down Defense
  

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q3 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q3 Passing S&P+
#4: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#104: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#103: Defensive Q3 S&P+
#99: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#96: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+, Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

You want to know how Mizzou differs from the stereotypical "spread offense, no defense" team?  Check out some of the '+' rankings in which they ranked in the Top 20. On offense, there was Close-Game Rushing S&P+, Rushing S&P+, and 3rd Down Rushing S&P+/Line Yards+.  On defense, there was Overall EqPts+, Close-Game Overall S&P+, Overall S&P+.  After a poor overall non-conference performance, the Mizzou defense really was one of the best in the country over the last 10 games of the season.  And the rushing offense was solid too.  They had almost no weakness from October onward.

So what does that mean for 2008?  Defensively, good things.  Lots of good things.  Even if they start slow again (and with so little new blood, you have to like the chances of avoiding that), this defense should end up in the Top 20 overall by end-of-season. One thing that Missouri did defensively better than just about any team in the country in '07 was take away its opponent's #1 (and sometimes #2) weapon.  Juice Williams & Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Purify & Marlon Lucky, Allen Patrick (and to an extent, Malcolm Kelly, though he still did rather well), Michael Crabtree, Todd Blythe, whoever Colorado's #1 weapon was, Jordy Nelson, Brandon McAnderson & Marcus Henry, Darren McFadden & Felix Jones. Just about everybody mentioned had extremely poor games against Missouri, at least until the game was out of hand in Q4.  If you had a good #3 or #4 option, you could move the ball against Mizzou.  But even then, your odds of major success using those options instead of your #1 or #2 are still limited.

I haven't mentioned the offense yet, but...well, you have to figure things are going to go just fine there.  Yes, there are a couple of new components--a RSFr left tackle and the first new starting center since 2004, for instance.  Plus, Tony Temple and Martin Rucker are gone.  Mizzou fans have extremely high hopes in their replacements (and in the case of Rucker's replacement, Chase Coffman is already almost more accomplished than Rucker anyway), but you never know what you're going to get until they show it on the field. 

Either way, though, an offense with Chase Daniel at the helm is going to succeed, and likely succeed big. If 2007 is any indication, there's one way to beat a Chase Daniel-led Missouri team: have a monstrous D-line, and hit Chase a lot.  Really, only two teams on the '08 schedule have really good lines--Illinois and Texas.  Illinois' is still as much about potential and athleticism as anything else, and Texas' was much better against the run than the pass, but those are the two biggest hurdles on the slate.

Verdict: While they may not be receiving any first-place votes, Missouri is as dangerous and proven as any team in the nation's Top Tier (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Mizzou, OU, USC, Ohio State).  They have a Heisman candidate at QB, speed speed speed at WR, the best hands in the country at TE (Coffman), a proven D-line, toughness and speed at LB (led by Sean Weatherspoon), an already-grizzled lock-down CB (Carl Gettis), and the best safety in the country (William Moore)...not to mention the most dangerous return man in the country (Jeremy Maclin) and the most consistent kicker in the Big 12 (Jeff Wolfert).  Barring a complete breakdown on the O-line, or a series of (KNOCK ON WOOD) injuries, Mizzou's got the talent to go undefeated and will be favored in at least 11 of the 12 games on their schedule.  They are, for 2008 at least, the class of the Big 12 North.

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You know how this works by now.  I walk you through the EqPts scores of last year's games to see if they won or lost any games they shouldn't.  Then I attack you with thousands of S&P- and Line Yards-related stats.  Then we look at '+' numbers.  Well...I'm going to abbreviate part of that with Kansas because...well...we all know that they didn't play the toughest of schedules in 2007, and the '+' numbers should be of particular interest.  '+' numbers, after all, are the measures that compare what they did to what other opponents' opponents did.  That way, even if they played a super-weak schedule, they're evaluated by how they played those crappy teams as compared to everybody else who played said crappy teams.  That's the meat of any Kansas analysis here.  But first...just so you don't get too terribly disoriented...I'll still hit you with some EqPts and a mini-stat onslaught.

And as always, for The Beef and others, I'll boldface the important stuff.

EqPts Scores

Kansas 42.6, Central Michigan 8.9 (real score: 52-7)
Kansas 40.6, SE Louisiana 14.1 (62-0)
Kansas 35.7, Toledo 7.9 (45-13)
Kansas 38.5, Florida International 0.6 (55.3)
Kansas 28.5, Kansas State 17.2 (30-24)
Kansas 29.0, Baylor 2.9 (58-10)
Kansas 14.8, Colorado 18.9 (19-14)
Kansas 18.0, Texas A&M 13.9 (19-11)
Kansas 65.7, Nebraska 31.1 (76-39)
Kansas 37.6, Oklahoma State 28.2 (43-28)
Kansas 41.8, Iowa State 7.8 (45-7)
Kansas 33.6, Missouri 34.8 (28-36)
Kansas 17.6, Virginia Tech 12.3 (24-21)

That game in Boulder was a dogfight, and the offense did next to nothing against the Buffs.

Stat Onslaught

We'll give you the bare bones stat onslaught here...bearing in mind that the upcoming '+' numbers are far more telling.

OFFENSE (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing: 51.0% / 0.45 / 0.960
Passing: 45.9% / 0.45 / 0.909
TOTAL: 48.4% / 0.45 / 0.934

Rushing (close games): 48.2% / 0.38 / 0.862
Passing (close games): 46.0% / 0.44 / 0.902

TOTAL: 47.0% / 0.41 / 0.884

Passing Downs: 30.9% / 0.20 / 0.507
Non-Passing Downs: 54.8% / 0.54 / 1.088

They never really took major chances on passing downs.  They succeeded by a) staying OUT of passing downs and b) having no problem falling back on their defense and playing it safe.

DEFENSE (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing: 37.3% / 0.23 / 0.599
Passing: 33.0% / 0.21 / 0.536
TOTAL: 34.8% / 0.21 / 0.562

Rushing (close games): 36.8% / 0.18 / 0.548
Passing (close games): 35.9% / 0.27 / 0.626
TOTAL (close games): 36.3% / 0.23 / 0.595

Passing Downs: 24.5% / 0.10 / 0.350
Non-Passing Downs: 40.9% / 0.28 / 0.688

Alright, on with the meat of the show.

'+' Numbers

Instead of numbers you may or may not care about, I'll just give you KU's national rank in each category.  That most directly tells you what you need to know.

OFFENSE

EqPts+: #9 in the country

S&P+: #9
Rushing S&P+: #8
Passing S&P+: #14

S&P+ (close games): #10
Rushing S&P+ (close games): #18
Passing S&P+ (close games): #25

Non-Passing Downs S&P+: #13
Passing Downs S&P+: #59

Redzone S&P+: #70

Q1 S&P+: #90
Q2 S&P+: #8
Q3 S&P+: #12
Q4 S&P+: #22

1st Downs S&P+: #24
2nd Downs S&P+: #22
3rd Downs S&P+: #35

Line Yards+: #9
Line Yards+ (close games): #6

• First things first, this was obviously a good offense.  Yeah, they torched some bad defenses, but they really torched them.
• KU's offense was a bit of a slow starter overall, less than mediocre in Q1 (though as you'll see, they still jumped out to big leads because of their defense).  But by Q2, they hit their stride. 
  
• Line play was quite strong as well.  KU was average-at-best on passing downs, but as I said above...they didn't face many.

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