Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football.  Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season.  Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons.  Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers.  Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge.  Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs.  Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility.  While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened.  And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected.  Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived.  Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen.  Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous.  Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009.  Daniel and Harrell?  Gone.  Crabtree and Maclin?  Almost certainly gone.  McCoy, Bradford, Freeman?  Possibly gone.  Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris?  Gone.  Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility.  So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus.  Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion."  For '09?  "New"  Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009.  We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009.  We'll start with the North Division.  To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers.  There will certainly be a time and place for that.  Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings.  And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits.  Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy.  Plus, you'll probably be wrong.  Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

Continue reading this post »

I may have posted the BTBS 'box' yesterday, but there's still plenty to discuss.  Let's look back at last week's preview and see how things shook down.

Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.

Nebraska: 39.7% success rate, 40.9% while the game was close
Missouri: 56.9% success rate, 56.3% while the game was close

So NU held Mizzou a smidge below its season success rate...but still couldn't stop the big play.  Meanwhile, NU didn't have nearly enough offensive consistency.

If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.

Nebraska: 6-for-22 on passing downs.  They were 5-for-11 passing (2 successful passes to Nate Swift, 2 to Todd Peterson, 1 to Menelik Holt) with 1 sack, and they were 1-for-5 rushing. 

They were 2-for-4 in Q1 (that's when the two passes to Swift came), 4-for-18 the rest of the game.

Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team.  They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.

Nebraska Offense

Q1: 50.0% success rate / 0.42 PPP / 0.924 S&P
Q2: 30.0% success rate / 0.18 PPP / 0.484 S&P
Q3: 37.5% success rate / 0.15 PPP / 0.522 S&P

And the game was over in Q4.

They really did gameplan pretty well, with the rollouts and such, but once Mizzou got comfortable (which didn't take long), it was over fast.

Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3.  We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off.  They start fast and stay fast.

Missouri Offense

Q1: 61.5% success rate / 0.70 PPP / 1.320 S&P (skewed by Maclin's long TD)
Q2: 50.0% success rate / 0.40 PPP / 0.903 S&P
Q3: 72.7% success rate / 1.23 PPP / 1.953 S&P

So a slight dropoff in Q2, but only to 0.903.  That's still good.  I do find one thing ironic, though: remember how NU's coaches bragged about the fantastic gameplan they'd put together?  Well Mizzou was unbelievable in the "gameplan" quarters (Q1/Q3).  That's some good coaching by Nebraska, huh?

The game could be made or broken on third downs.

Mizzou on 3rd downs: 77.8% success rate / 1.487 PPP / 2.264 S&P
Nebraska on 3rd downs: 63.2% success rate / 0.391 PPP / 1.022 S&P

Nebraska was a little too successful on 3rd downs for my taste, but while they were just barely converting (0.391 PPP), Missouri was breaking the Points Per Play chart (1.487).  Again, S&P is a lot like OPS in baseball--anything over 0.900 is pretty good.  A 2.264 S&P is "Barry Bonds in the 2002 World Series" good.

(Correction: Barry Bonds only put up a 1.994 OPS in the 2002 World Series.  My bad.  The Missouri offense on third downs was better than Barry Bonds in the 2002 World Series.)

Continue reading this post »

Well this is pretty awesome--the OSU and Colorado games have officially sold out.  We've got a decent shot at averaging 64K per game this year, which is pretty good after the rain-dampened Nevada game.

MAILBAG!!!

The Missourian states the obvious: William Moore is a huge part of the Mizzou defense.  Meanwhile, the Trib has a nice article on Mizzou's cornerbacks and their lust for redemption.

[J]ust like last year’s turbulent start in nonconference play, big plays have been the culprit. The Tigers have given up nine passes of 25 yards or more - the same number they surrendered during nonconference play last season. But here’s the good news for the Tigers: Only three of those long passes have come in the last three games.

On the other hand, it’s the big ones that stand out. Nevada caught the MU secondary napping with a 42-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds of the first half on Sept. 13. A week later, Missouri mostly tamed Buffalo’s passing game but gave up a 32-yard scoring pass midway through the second quarter.

"I don’t think we give up a lot of plays, just too many big plays," Gettis said. "Those plays are what really kills our secondary."

Nebraska Links!

• Corn Nation: Should Missouri Be Considered Nebraska's Rival?  (The question's catching on!)
• Tim Griffin: Should Missouri Now Be Considered Nebraska's Major Rival?  (Like I said...)
• Omaha World-Herald: Time of Possession looms large for NU (No, no it doesn't.  Mizzou's last in the conference in TOP right now, and they seem to be doing just fine.)
• PowerMizzou: A Meaningless Streak
• Omaha World-Herald: Missouri over NU?  Absolutely.
• MIssourian: Tigers hope they're mature enough for trip to Nebraska
• Lincoln Journal-Star: NU's McNeill, Mizzou's Maclin friends off the field
• Omaha World-Herald: Huskers hungry for another shot at Mizzou
• Post-Dispatch: Where's the 'D'?
• Omaha World-Herald: Mizzou receiver Maclin leaves defenders breathless
• Post-Dispatch: Pelini can't handle losing, which is fine by him

Jake Harry knows that less is more.  Meanwhile, Jeff Wolfert is in the moment.

Finally, Mizzou Volleyball's NCAA chances are holding on after last night's 3-2 home win over Iowa State.  It was a 5-setter that wasn't actually very close.  Mizzou dominated the first two sets (25-15, 25-15), got thumped in the 3rd (25-16), lost the only close set in the 4th (25-22), then dominated the fifth (15-7).  In all, they outscored Iowa State 103-87, outhit them .259-.165, and outdug them 82-74.  Iowa State stayed in the match by outblocking the FIghtin' Kreklows, 12.0-5.0, but Mizzou pulled it out.  They're now 2-2 in the Big 12 and 8-6 overall, having won 3 in a row.  The Missourian has more.

I can't believe it's freaking October...

The Trib has a nice article on the country-wide upsets, and how a couple well-known buddies of Chase Daniel have told him..."Don't let your team do it..."

Nebraska links!

• KC Star: Missouri's offense can prepare for anything
• Dave Matter: Cut to the Chase! (“It’s going to be really hostile. We’re going to work with sound. We worked with sound on Saturday. We had two really big speakers out there. You couldn’t even hear yourself think out there. I don’t know how much more loud it can be. I was there sophomore year and it was loud. We got to work on that. Other than that, it’s just going out there and playing football.")
• The Missourian: Nebraska's 'Poor loser' coach prepares for Tigers
• KC Star: Struggling Nebraska defense faces biggest challenge in Missouri
• Post-Dispatch: Considerable ability helps [Derrick] Washington (another strange headline from the P-D folks)
• Post-Dispatch: [Mike] McNeill is hearing from folks back home
• Tim Griffin: Nebraska remembers Missouri's spread offense

Mizzourah's got a nice summary of how Hate Week is heating up quite nicely...

SI's Stewart Mandel fits Mizzou in at #3 in his latest power rankings.

Quick recruiting note: another big-time RB will be visiting Columbia soon--this time it's 4-star Tulsa Union RB Jeremy Smith, a current Oklahoma State commit.

Finally, the Hearnes Center has a new look tonight for Mizzou Volleyball's conference battle against Iowa State...not sure what I think about the banners, but they're definitely interesting...

We had a bye week, and there's no game for me to review...so let's go ahead and talk about Nebraska, shall we?

So the NCAA.org site from which I get my play-by-plays is screwing me this week, as half their games from last week aren't in the database correctly yet.  That's preventing me from having the up-to-date '+' numbers I was hoping to have for conference play.  Oh well, I guess.  Instead, what you get is one monster BTBS season box score for both Mizzou and Nebraska.  And after the jump, I'll play with projections the way I have been for the other '08 games so far.

If you have any questions about these numbers, please ask them.  At some point I'll get to the new BTBS Glossary I've promised...but it hasn't happened yet.  And if your eyes glaze over looking at numbers, check out the bullets after the box.

Thoughts...

• Nebraska has actually lost the field position battle (Field Position % = plays you've run in your opponent's territory vs plays they've run in your territory) so far this year.  They've come up with some big plays so far, but that's a little bit alarming.  Some teams are really good at the bend-don't-break thing, but it's a dangerous game.
• Less than 1/4 of Missouri's plays are Passing Downs.  Oh yeah, and they're just about the best in the country at converting Passing Downs.
• Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.
• Mizzou's only giving up 2.23 Line Yards per carry.  I thought it would be higher than that, even against relatively weak competition.  That's a stout run defense right there.
• Nebraska's passing game is downright solid, especially considering Joe Ganz only has one 'shows up every game' weapon at his disposal, Nate "Remember Me?" Swift.
• Oh yeah, and Mizzou's 1.275 Passing S&P is unbelievable.
• If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.
• Mizzou is the poster child for why Turnover Points Margin is so much more telling than Turnover Margin.  What happens when you put up 3 INT's for TD in 4 games?  You average a more than 6-point turnover advantage per game.
  
• Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team.  They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.
• Meanwhile, their defense is pretty stout in Q4.  Don't know if that's because of the competition or not, but let's just go ahead and make sure this game is out of reach in Q3, shall we?
  
• Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3.  We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off.  They start fast and stay fast.  Their Q4 numbers are down, but put little stock in that--they've only played their starters in Q4 in 2 of 4 games.  They weren't wonderful offensively against Illinois in Q4, but that's a quite small sample size, no?
• Mizzou's offense is RIDICULOUS on first downs.  A 1.623 S&P?  Seriously?
• The game could be made or broken on third downs.  Nebraska is -0.062 S&P on third downs (0.642 on offense, 0.708 on defense), while Mizzou is +0.383.  You have to figure that home field advantage is most apparent on third downs, so Mizzou's advantage will shrink because of that...but that's still pretty significant right there.

Alright, projections after the jump...

Continue reading this post »