Mizzou-Oklahoma: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW
I just can't tell you how much I was hoping to write a Mizzou-Texas Tech preview this week. But instead of moping around about it, it's on to the numbers!
OU
|
Opp. |
Mizzou |
Opp. |
|
| 57.1% | % Close | 62.5% | ||
| 60.2% | 39.8% | Field Position % | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| 72.6% | 65.9% | Leverage % | 75.3% | 68.1% |
| Total | ||||
| 934 | 845 | Plays | 829 | 908 |
| 498.9 | 270.9 | EqPts | 424.59 | 298 |
| 50.4% | 38.0% | Success Rate | 56.1% | 42.4% |
| 0.53 | 0.32 | PPP | 0.51 | 0.33 |
| 1.038 | 0.700 | S&P | 1.073 | 0.752 |
| Close Games | ||||
| 571 | 445 | Plays | 563 | 522 |
| 351.07 | 149.13 | EqPts | 285.07 | 168.14 |
| 54.3% | 39.3% | Success Rate | 57.2% | 42.9% |
| 0.61 | 0.34 | PPP | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| 1.158 | 0.728 | S&P | 1.078 | 0.751 |
| Rushing | ||||
| 193.07 | 103.02 | EqPts | 156.04 | 97.64 |
| 47.0% | 40.7% | Success Rate | 51.6% | 40.7% |
| 0.39 | 0.29 | PPP | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| 0.856 | 0.697 | S&P | 0.971 | 0.656 |
| 3.59 | 2.73 | Line Yds/carry | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Passing | ||||
| 305.84 | 167.86 | EqPts | 268.55 | 200.38 |
| 54.4% | 36.0% | Success Rate | 59.3% | 43.7% |
| 0.70 | 0.34 | PPP | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| 1.249 | 0.703 | S&P | 1.145 | 0.825 |
| 2.5% | 7.9% | Sack Rate | 2.5% | 5.2% |
| Non-Passing Downs | ||||
| 54.6% | 44.5% | Success Rate | 60.9% | 47.4% |
| 0.52 | 0.35 | PPP | 0.55 | 0.33 |
| 1.061 | 0.798 | S&P | 1.157 | 0.802 |
| 1.6% | 5.7% | Sack Rate | 1.8% | 4.0% |
| 63.7% | 49.6% | Run Rate | 47.4% | 51.9% |
| Passing Downs | ||||
| 39.5% | 25.4% | Success Rate | 41.5% | 31.7% |
| 0.59 | 0.26 | PPP | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| 0.980 | 0.511 | S&P | 0.819 | 0.646 |
| 3.7% | 10.5% | Sack Rate | 3.8% | 6.8% |
| 26.6% | 27.8% | Run Rate | 22.9% | 24.1% |
| Turnovers | ||||
| 8 | 29 | Total | 20 | 21 |
| 18.63 | 59.54 | Points Lost | 52.34 | 52.19 |
| 17.28 | 85.05 | Points Given | 41.38 | 75.69 |
| 35.91 | 144.59 | Total T/O Pts | 93.72 | 127.88 |
| +108.68 | -108.68 | T/O Pts Margin/Gm | +54.16 | -54.16 |
Thoughts after the jump...
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Mizzou Links, 12-5-08
Certainly the most interesting article from the last 24 hours is this Trib link about the Mizzou secondary's communication issues during the KU game.
Sophomore cornerback Carl Gettis recalled a number of instances against KU where one or two players missed the defensive play call from the sideline and teammates. Other times, said cornerback Castine Bridges, the wrong play was signaled.
"For some reason, we slacked off," said Bridges, who suffered a season-ending torn medial colateral ligament in the game. "Some guys were playing the wrong calls. Some guys were calling Cover 2 instead of Cover 3."
Jackson wondered if some players were too caught up in the rivalry’s intensity to persistently concentrate on the game’s mental side.
"For a couple of plays, we would be communicating, and then after that, I’d look at" safety Justin "Garrett and he wasn’t even looking at me," Jackson said. "So everyone was really just trying to make sure they were doing their job. It’s against Kansas. A lot of emotions are flying. We were just really wanting to win, and it was hard to focus in on the call each different play."
How did that work out?
"It seemed like every time we didn’t get a call, that’s when a big play came," he said. "We’re going to have to do a better job."
The good news, of course, is that the two people in the article who seemed to be the most together were a sophomore (Gettis) and a freshman (Jackson), but...yeah, might want to get that hammered out. I hear OU's, uhh, not too bad at passing the ball.
OU Links!
- KC Star: Oklahoma provides a head game for Missouri
- KC Star: Maclin's return game in spotlight
- Post-Dispatch: Maclin ready to expose Oklahoma's weakness on kick return defense
- Dave Matter: Writer's Block (a Q&A with Jake Trotter of the Daily Oklahoman)
- PowerMizzou: Three Keys to a Tiger victory (First key on the list: score a lot. You know, that's just crazy enough to work...)
- Tulsa World: Sooners' success speaks for itself
- The Missourian: MU football hopes to overcome history, #4 Oklahoma
- The Missourian: Tigers push optimistic message for Oklahoma game
- Daily Oklahoman: Bradford to have 8am surgery following title game
- Daily Oklahoman: Bob Stoops' Big 12 championship history
- Daily Oklahoman: Will Tigers have any advantage?
Also regarding the OU game...the Missourian mentions one reason for Mizzou hope: 2003 KANSAS STATE!!!!!!! Just know where you heard that first.
Nothing earth-shattering in this article, but the P-D has a nice summary of the Big 12 Championship's history of upsets...
Also nothing earth-shattering here, but...man, I'm going to miss the "Isn't Chase Coffman amazing?" articles. We've only got a month left with him...
Finally, there aren't a lot of new names or anything, but check out Mizzou's status with a lot of recruits in this week's Chamber...
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Mizzou Links, 12-4-08
Quick programming note--I'm thinking the OU-MU BTBS preview won't be up until tomorrow...

mizzouman99 asks: It's obvious that Matt Eberflus isn't going anywhere this off-season. With the recent struggles of the defense this season you have to think this coaching staff has to point to the scheme we are using as one of the key problems.
What do you think the chances are that Coach Pinkel calls for wholesale changes to the defensive scheme in the off-season, similar to the way we changed to the spread offense in 2005? Do you think there is a scheme that would help the effectiveness of our blitzing that they might consider due to the athleticism we have coming in the underclassmen?
I don't know if you'll see wholesale changes, but there have to be adjustments certainly. We've talked about the defense ad nauseum and the bottom line was it didn't play up to its potential. How much of that is the fault of the players and how much the scheme and the coaching? I don't know the answer to that, but I think it's priority number one in the off-season to figure it out.
Again, Eberflus = Pinkel. Eberflus is only executing the Pinkel philosophy. He's not going anywhere, nor does he need to. They tinker with the on offense and defense very year. Sometimes the adjustments work, sometimes they don't. The defensive adjustments they made this season (discussed at least somewhat in yesterday's roundtable) didn't work, though again--this is still an average to above average defense in a ridiculously offense-oriented conference.
I may change my mind about this later, but if we end up playing a Northwestern or somebody like that in the Alamo Bowl, I have the feeling we'll be blown away by how athletic and fast our defense looks after getting used to seeing some of the Big 12 offenses we played against this year.
(BIIIIIIIIIG TWWWWELLLLLLVE SPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED.)
Still annoyed by the coaches' All-Big 12 team? The AP team is out soon (ballots were due Sunday)--here's Dave Matter's ballot. And yes, I'd have linked to this even if he'd picked Gresham over Coffman...
Today's OU Links!
- Dave Matter: Behind the Numbers
- The Missourian: Eyes in Texas will be upon Missouri (as exemplified by the number of UT applications for the Mizzou Fan Visa)
- The Missourian: Tiger defense examines struggles
- Post-Dispatch: Daniel sees mistake-free performance against Oklahoma (here's to hoping...)
- Post-Dispatch: Sam Bradford a special QB for Oklahoma
- PowerMizzou: Tiger offense will have to start fast
- PowerMizzou: Attacking the OU D
- PowerMizzou: Powered Up: Anatomy of an Upset
- Tulsa World: Missouri's Maclin displays excellence (what a weird headline--I looked at it and saw "Missouri's Maclin pisses excellence" at first)
- Tulsa World: Sooners' BCS lead over UT isn't safe
- Daily Oklahoman: OU has Chase Daniel's number
- Daily Oklahoman: OU's DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown are chasing after Big 12 history
Toledo has made its choice, and it is indeed a Big 12 defensive coordinator. It's Tim Beckman, whose absence I'm thinking could make a huge difference at OSU. I was tremendously impressed with Beckman's performance this year.
Finally...man, do I love rumors. After Broderick Green listed Mizzou as a possible transferring-from-USC destination a while back, now apparently Vidal Hazelton has as well. Hazelton has just one catch since USC's season opener against Virginia (he's been nagged by injuries)--he had 50 catches for 540 yards and 4 TDs last year.
Hazelton initially went to high school in Staten Island, and Rutgers is the closest school to Staten Island on his list (MU, Rutgers, Tech), so you have to figure they're the safest bet, but...you know...I'd still take my chances if he wanted to come here.
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Mizzou Links, 12-3-08
OU Links!
- Post-Dispatch: Missouri defense is bracing for high-octane Oklahoma
- Post-Dispatch: Sooners say chip on their shoulder against Mizzou (great)
- PowerMizzou: Stopping an unstoppable offense
- PowerMizzou: Like Father, Unike Son: Title Upset?
- The Missourian: Stoops says Sooners deserve spot
- KC Star: Coffman vows to fight pain, and Sooners
- KC Star: Even Tiger moms and dads are picking OU
- Tulsa World: Sam Nation
- Daily Oklahoman: Thumbs up for Sam Bradford
- Daily Oklahoman: What regional writers think
- Dallas Morning News: Missouri defense better be on its game against Oklahoma
Sounds like nobody on the Mizzou offense is feeling betrayed by Dave Christensen's departure...
Not that we need a ton of links talking about how badly Mizzou killed hapless UA-Pine Bluff last night, but...well, there's not a ton else going on, so that's exactly what you get!
- Mutigers.com: Missouri crushes Arkansas-Pine Bluff
- The Trib: Missouri routs Arkansas-Pine Bluff
- The Missourian: Missouri dominates Arkansas-Pine Bluff
- KC Star: Missouri pounds Arkansas-Pine Bluff
- Post-Dispatch: Tigers' defense is too much (way to go, P-D, ruining the headline symmetry...)
And if you want a bit more basketball reading, check out Steve Walentik's Big 12 power poll...
Finally, in Mizzou Football Recruiting news, Rivals has a neat story about Blue Springs South DE Derrion Thomas, Derrick Thomas's son who, while a bit undersized, developed into a dominant force this year...
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Mizzou Links, 12-2-08
I'm sorry, but I just can't respect any movie that a) stars Tom Cruise, and b) stars Tom Cruise wearing an eyepatch. Just can't do it.
Chase Daniel: chippy.
Quarterback Chase Daniel was in an extraordinarily chippy mood during his weekly turn at the podium. When asked about Oklahoma’s defense, Daniel came prepared with some offensive statistics for several of his teammates.
“They’re a great defensive team, but you want to talk about their guys,” he said. “What about our guys? I’ve got some stats right here.”
With that Daniel rattled off several season and career numbers for six of his teammates, reading off from a piece of paper — though he could probably recite them for memory. He mentioned numbers for Chase Coffman, Jeremy Maclin, Tommy Saunders, Jared Perry, Jeff Wolfert and Derrick Washington.
“You look at their weapons. Well, I want to look at ours and what we have to bring to the table,” he said. “I feel good about our guys.”
...
A couple things at play here: Daniel’s got something for the Sooners. That’s obvious. He grew up a Texas fan, so no surprise there. But over the last three years, Daniel’s been more than willing to discuss and dissect the defensive players for every other team on MU’s schedule. Just not Oklahoma.
“We want respect, and it’s not going to be given to us,” he said. “We just have to go out and get it.”
I love the attitude, but I'm scared enough about poking the bear that...yeah...back it up, Chase, and I'll love you to pieces...the KC Star has more.
Big 12 Championship Links!
- Mutigers.com: official release
Oklahoma has won 18 of the last 19 games in the series, dating back to 1984, and if you take it back to 1970, they’ve won 30 of the last 33 meetings between the two schools. Since 1946, the series stands in OU’s favor by a whopping 49-7-1 margin – that’s when the separation really began by the Sooners from the Tigers, as in 1945, a Mizzou 14-6 win over OU evened the series at 16-16-1 at the time.
- Soonersports.com: Sooner Scouting Report
- The Trib: Tigers vs Sooners: The Sequel
- PowerMizzou: Tigers know few have faith
- Post-Dispatch: Missouri not distracted as it focuses on OU and Big 12 Title Game
- Bryan Burwell: Missouri has a chance to defeat Oklahoma, but it is a slim one
- Tulsa World: Sooners' depth will be tested
- Daily Oklahoman: Bob Stoops addresses Sam Bradford injury, Missouri
- Daily Oklahoman: Tigers way short of expectations
- Daily Oklahoman: Thumbs up for OU quarterback Sam Bradford
Naturally, Gary Pinkel is pretty happy about Dave Christensen's promotion (they've been working together since 1980!), as are Christensen's players...
In football recruiting news, it looks like Mizzou sent out a new offer for 2010: Blaine Gabbert's younger brother, Tyler.
Mizzou Basketball links!
- KC Star: Freshman Paul fits in at Missouri
- Mutigers.com: UA-Pine Bluff official release
- Steve Walentik: Goodbye Oral Roberts, hello Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Finally, it's time to get fully into 2003 Kansas State mode...live it, love it...
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The Fog of '09 - South Offenses
Quarterbacks
- Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
- Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
- Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
- Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
- Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
- Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)
Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here. If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap. If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.
Running Backs
- Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
- Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
- Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
- Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
- Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
- Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)
I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine. Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
- Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
- Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
- Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
- Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
- Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)
I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario. He's gone. As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South. OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley. OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them. Broyles could be a major stud, though.
Offensive Lines
- Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
- Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
- Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
- Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
- Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
- Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)
It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09. You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.
South Offenses, 2009
- Oklahoma State (21)
- Texas (20)
- Oklahoma (15)
- Texas Tech (12)
- Texas A&M (9)
- Baylor (7)
You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will. But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.
If Colt McCoy goes pro
- Oklahoma State (22)
- Texas (17)
- Oklahoma (15)
- Texas Tech (13)
- Texas A&M (9)
- Baylor (8)
If Sam Bradford goes pro
- Oklahoma State (22)
- Texas (21)
- Texas Tech (13)
- Oklahoma (10)
- Texas A&M (10)
- Baylor (8)
If McCoy AND Bradford go pro
- Oklahoma State (23)
- Texas (18)
- Texas Tech (14)
- Oklahoma (10)
- Texas A&M (10)
- Baylor (9)
This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.
One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.
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Mizzou Links, 10-6-08
Nebraska Wrap-up Links!
- PowerMizzou: Sunday Grade Card
- KC Star: MU still feeling good after big win in Lincoln
- The Trib: No more stinkin' in Lincoln
- The Trib: Tigers thumb nose at Huskers, history
- The Missourian: Tiger defense shows mettle against Huskers
- Post-Dispatch: MU drills Huskers
- The Missourian: MU players not pleased with dirty play
- ESPN.com: Husker's Pelini: Game tape doesn't show dirty tactics vs Mizzou
- Mizzourah: The Lincoln experience
- Lincoln Journal-Star: NU needed a miracle; no such luck
- Omaha World-Herald: Tigers hand Huskers worst Lincoln loss in a half-century
- Omaha World-Herald: It's time for NU to move on from loss
And as always...Dave Matter empties the notebook...
Last week I did a radio interview with a talk-show host in Omaha who told me Nebraska fans still believe they’ll win every game against Missouri because of the “Pinkel Factor,” the Huskers-inspired theory that Pinkel will botch something on game day and cause the Tigers to lose. I think we can officially put that theory to rest — if you haven’t already, say a year ago when Missouri won 12 games and finished No. 4 in the country. Now that Pinkel’s won four of six against the Husk-ers and defeated three different NU head coaches, don’t you think the “Pinkel Factor” seems a touch outdated?
I think Missouri fans can turn the tables and credit the Huskers’ struggles to the “Maclin Factor.” Or the “Daniel Factor” or the “Washington Factor” or the “Alexander Factor” — as in the Tigers’ wealth of offensive weapons compared to Nebraska’s lunging, slow-footed collection of defenders.
Now...a couple Oklahoma State links!
- Post-Dispatch: MU looks for improvement
- Tulsa World: Dez-struction
- Tulsa World: The day after A&M
- Daily Oklahoman: OSU's defense riding high
- Daily Oklahoman: Introducing OSU's unknown Ugo
- Daily Oklahoman: (VIDEO) Dez, Defense dominate A&M
And since Dez Bryant's profile continues to rise, here's a sneak peek of what's coming to Como this weekend...
Here's ESPN's latest Heisman watch. It's almost a little freaky how close Chase Daniel's and Sam Bradford's (and to a lesser extent, Colt McCoy's) numbers are. What's sad is, if Derrick Washington's rushing numbers weren't so effective, Chase would probably have about 5-7 more TD passes. That's a good problem to have.
Finally, I'm sure The Beef will have more about this in the Musings, but it was a good weekend for Mizzou Soccer and another crappy one for Mizzou Volleyball--this team just can't win (or hit) on the road, and it's killing them.
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Rock M Roundtable!
1 - What did last week's string of upsets tell you about the current state of college football?
2 - A month into the season, where do you think Joe Ganz ranks among Big 12 QBs?
3 - For those who have seen Nebraska play at all this year, what do you think gives Nebraska the best opportunity of stopping the Mizzou offense enough to win?
4 - Big 12 Picks!
Texas @ Colorado
Kansas @ Iowa State
Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Oklahoma @ Baylor
ATM @ OSU
And finally...
Mizzou @ Nebraska
5 - Finally...on average, which game do you usually see as a bigger game in football: MU-NU or MU-KU? (For Doug, change that to KU-KSU or MU-KU) I think I've asked a question like this before, but...screw it. I'm asking it again.
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Big 12 Roundtable: Week 5
With the return of Big 12 play looming on the schedule, it was about time we revived the Big 12 Roundtable. This week's set of questions comes to us from PB at Burnt Orange Nation...
1. We start with a review of your team's non-conference performance. Take the format of my Week 5 Big 12 Report and give us your Offensive MVP, Defensive MVP, and Projected Finish. (Limit 125 words max on each.)
RMN: Credit to BON for a fairly even-handed assessment of Missouri entering Big 12 play, which can be read here for reference. As much as I love Jeremy Maclin, though, I find it difficult to name him the offense's MVP when arguably the most valuable player in the entire nation lines up under center. I know it's "cool" to distribute credit and name drop wherever possible, but Chase Daniel is the most valuable player in the country, much less for the Missouri offense. As much as I want to give some serious dap to Maclin, Derrick Washington, Chase Coffman and the MU offensive line, Daniel is your man. On defense, everything PB said about Sean Weatherspoon stands true. As for projected finish, before the season, I tabbed Missouri to be a perfect 12-0 and 8-0 in conference during regular season play (note that this is NOT a prediction of Big 12/National titles). For now, I'll stick by that prediction, although the Texas game is beginning to worry me far more than it originally did.
2. Oklahoma State is one of two Big 12 teams not represented by bloggers. Don your oversized Cowboy hat for a day and give us your take on Mike Gundy's team. Are they same old same old (above average offense, putrid defense)? Or something else?
RMN: I have the same issues with Oklahoma State that I currently have with Texas and Texas Tech: I have simply no idea what to make of them until I see them play someone semi-legit (sorry, Arkansas, but you don't count this year). The Pokes certainly found ways to put up numbers in non-conference, and the offense Gundy's compiled in Stillwater provides the kinds of energy that T. Boone Pickens is dedicating his life to finding. I realize I'm supposed to be an "expert" on the Big 12, but I (and others, I assume) really won't know much about the Cowboys' worthiness until I see them up close and personal on the road in Columbia for a nationally televised night game. Sure, beating Texas A&M at home is nice, but the road to legitimacy for OSU begins Oct. 11 at 7:00.
More roundtable madness after the jump...
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The Big 12-SEC Challenge
After yesterday's action, which left me with the thought that there are about 4-5 actually good teams in the country, I thought it was time to discuss one thing in particular: is the SEC really infinitely better than any other conference? The reason I'm thinking of this right now is easy: Ole Miss won in Gainesville yesterday, and the settling conventional wisdom seems to be that "this is proof of how great the SEC really is" instead of "Maybe Florida's not that great this year." Meanwhile, Auburn vs Tennessee was a battle of two positively horrendous offenses. How bad are some of the offenses in the SEC? I'm confident in saying that any starting QB in the Big 12 could start for these two "strong programs", along with about six others. That's right--if Austen Arnaud were Auburn's starting QB, they'd be a better team than they are right now. And hell...if Zac Robinson played for Auburn, they'd be a Top 5 team bar none. And he's probably the Big 12's sixth-best QB!
I figured the best way to see if SEC really is head-and-shoulders above everybody else was to do a basketball-style "conference challenge". You know how it works. I was too impatient to wait for the polls to come out, so the 1-12 ranking are based completely on my own subjectivity. And we'll assume every matchup is played at a neutral site as close to directly in between the schools as possible.
Big 12
- Oklahoma
- Missouri
- Texas
- Texas Tech
- Kansas
- Oklahoma State
- Nebraska
- Colorado
- Baylor
- Kansas State
- Iowa State
- Texas A&M
SEC
- Alabama
- LSU
- Georgia
- Florida
- Auburn
- Vanderbilt
- Ole Miss
- Kentucky
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
- Mississippi State
- Arkansas
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