Quick programming note--I'm thinking the OU-MU BTBS preview won't be up until tomorrow...

MAILBAG!!!

mizzouman99 asks: It's obvious that Matt Eberflus isn't going anywhere this off-season. With the recent struggles of the defense this season you have to think this coaching staff has to point to the scheme we are using as one of the key problems.

What do you think the chances are that Coach Pinkel calls for wholesale changes to the defensive scheme in the off-season, similar to the way we changed to the spread offense in 2005? Do you think there is a scheme that would help the effectiveness of our blitzing that they might consider due to the athleticism we have coming in the underclassmen?

I don't know if you'll see wholesale changes, but there have to be adjustments certainly. We've talked about the defense ad nauseum and the bottom line was it didn't play up to its potential. How much of that is the fault of the players and how much the scheme and the coaching? I don't know the answer to that, but I think it's priority number one in the off-season to figure it out.

Again, Eberflus = Pinkel.  Eberflus is only executing the Pinkel philosophy.  He's not going anywhere, nor does he need to.  They tinker with the on offense and defense very year.  Sometimes the adjustments work, sometimes they don't.  The defensive adjustments they made this season (discussed at least somewhat in yesterday's roundtable) didn't work, though again--this is still an average to above average defense in a ridiculously offense-oriented conference.

I may change my mind about this later, but if we end up playing a Northwestern or somebody like that in the Alamo Bowl, I have the feeling we'll be blown away by how athletic and fast our defense looks after getting used to seeing some of the Big 12 offenses we played against this year.

(BIIIIIIIIIG TWWWWELLLLLLVE SPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED.)

Still annoyed by the coaches' All-Big 12 team?  The AP team is out soon (ballots were due Sunday)--here's Dave Matter's ballot.  And yes, I'd have linked to this even if he'd picked Gresham over Coffman...

Today's OU Links!

• Dave Matter: Behind the Numbers
• The Missourian: Eyes in Texas will be upon Missouri (as exemplified by the number of UT applications for the Mizzou Fan Visa)
• The Missourian: Tiger defense examines struggles
• Post-Dispatch: Daniel sees mistake-free performance against Oklahoma (here's to hoping...)
• Post-Dispatch: Sam Bradford a special QB for Oklahoma
• PowerMizzou: Tiger offense will have to start fast
• PowerMizzou: Attacking the OU D
• PowerMizzou: Powered Up: Anatomy of an Upset
• Tulsa World: Missouri's Maclin displays excellence (what a weird headline--I looked at it and saw "Missouri's Maclin pisses excellence" at first)
• Tulsa World: Sooners' BCS lead over UT isn't safe
• Daily Oklahoman: OU has Chase Daniel's number
• Daily Oklahoman: OU's DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown are chasing after Big 12 history

Toledo has made its choice, and it is indeed a Big 12 defensive coordinator.  It's Tim Beckman, whose absence I'm thinking could make a huge difference at OSU.  I was tremendously impressed with Beckman's performance this year.

Finally...man, do I love rumors.  After Broderick Green listed Mizzou as a possible transferring-from-USC destination a while back, now apparently Vidal Hazelton has as well. Hazelton has just one catch since USC's season opener against Virginia (he's been nagged by injuries)--he had 50 catches for 540 yards and 4 TDs last year.

Hazelton initially went to high school in Staten Island, and Rutgers is the closest school to Staten Island on his list (MU, Rutgers, Tech), so you have to figure they're the safest bet, but...you know...I'd still take my chances if he wanted to come here.

Quarterbacks

1. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
2. Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
3. Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
4. Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
5. Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
6. Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here.  If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap.  If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

1. Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
2. Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
3. Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
4. Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
5. Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
6. Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine.  Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
2. Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
3. Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
4. Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
5. Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
6. Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)
   

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario.  He's gone.  As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South.  OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley.  OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them.  Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

1. Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
2. Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
3. Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
4. Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
5. Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
6. Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)
   

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09.  You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma State (21)
2. Texas (20)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (12)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will.  But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (17)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (13)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (21)
3. Texas Tech (13)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

1. Oklahoma State (23)
2. Texas (18)
3. Texas Tech (14)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

South Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
• Q1 Offense
• Offensive Points Per Play
• Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster?  Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup.  The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable.  Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country.  They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford.  As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy.  He was sacked all of once a game last year.  I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone.  Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat.  Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost.  If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer?  Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently.  I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles.  He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug.  You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him.  If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there.  DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

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