I doubt this one becomes as long as the typical BTBS usually is, simply because I wrote a BTBS on Illinois about three months ago, and it's not like any games have happened since then.  But I still have some things to talk about.

'+' Projections

For one thing, using '+' ratings, we can actually somewhat project some points.  How, you ask?  Simple.  The EqPts+ number simply compares a team's performance with the averages of their opponents.  So watch what we can do...

Mizzou Rushing

• Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
• Illinois Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 9.06
• Projection #1: 16.20
• Illinois Rushing Defense EqPts+: 165.11
• Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 9.82

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 13.01

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 12.00 (I don't fear the loss of Tony Temple, but UI's D-line will be as good or better than last year's)

Mizzou Passing

• Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
• Illinois Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 9.88
• Projection #1: 14.78
  
• Illinois Passing Defense EqPts+: 87.04
• Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 21.14
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 17.96

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 18.00

Illinois Rushing

• Illinois Rushing Offense EqPts+: 171.78
• Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 14.24
• Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
• Illinois Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 17.78
• Projection #2: 11.70

Projected Illinois Rushing Output: 12.97

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 11.00 (Dufrene is decent, but he's no Mendenhall...and 6 of Mizzou's front 7 return)

Illinois Passing

• Illinois Passing Offense EqPts+: 72.33
• Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 8.78
• Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
• Illinois Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.37
• Projection #2: 5.22

Projected Illinois Passing Output: 7.00

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 9.00 (Mizzou's secondary returns intact, but Benn is healthy)

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Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 30.0, Illinois 20.0

Neat, huh?  So that gives us a jumping-off point for the game.  Turnovers and special teams can certainly make up an 11-point difference, plus if the offensive line is the last thing on a team to gel, that helps Illinois, as Mizzou's O-line has further to go to gel.

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