...we can add another Winter tradition to the list: Mizzou tight ends getting screwed over by the Big 12 coaches.

That's right, the Coaches' All-Big 12 awards have been announced.

1st-Team Mizzou players

WR Jeremy Maclin
DL Ziggy Hood
LB Sean Weatherspoon
DB William Moore (unanimous)
PK Jeff Wolfert

2nd-Team Mizzou players

RB Derrick Washington
TE Chase Coffman
OL Kurtis Gregory
DL Stryker Sulak

Honorable Mention

QB Chase Daniel
WR Tommy Saunders
OL Tim Barnes
OL Colin Brown
DL Jaron Baston
LB Brock Christopher
DB Castine Bridges (?)
DB Justin Garrett (??)
KR/PR Jeremy Maclin

I realize it's hard to complain too much--a few years ago, it was amazing to see a handful of second-teamers in Mizzou uniforms, much less nine on the 1st- and 2nd-team--and I realize that Jermaine Gresham is by all means a helluva tight end, but...come on.  Not only is Chase Coffman the best tight end in the conference, he's the best tight end I've ever seen.

Then again, this tells you everything you need to know about the validity of these stupid exercises:

* Justin Garrett = honorable mention all-conference
* Carl Gettis = not

Good god, what a waste of time.  Sorry I even acknowledged this with a post.

Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football.  Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season.  Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons.  Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers.  Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge.  Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs.  Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility.  While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened.  And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected.  Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived.  Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen.  Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous.  Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009.  Daniel and Harrell?  Gone.  Crabtree and Maclin?  Almost certainly gone.  McCoy, Bradford, Freeman?  Possibly gone.  Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris?  Gone.  Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility.  So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus.  Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion."  For '09?  "New"  Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009.  We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009.  We'll start with the North Division.  To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers.  There will certainly be a time and place for that.  Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings.  And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits.  Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy.  Plus, you'll probably be wrong.  Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

Continue reading this post »

A couple quick notes about additions before we launch into the stat orgy that is the BTBS Preview.

• I've added "Sack Rates" back into the mix now.  Not sure why I didn't earlier, but they're there now.  Sack Rate = Sacks / (Pass Attempts + Sacks)
• I've also added a "Run Rate" measure looking at Passing Downs and Non-Passing Downs.  Run Rate = Rushes / Total Plays.  Easy enough, right?  Among other things, this looks at how aggressive or conservative an offense is, and/or how much it tends to respect the defense it's opposing.  If your Run Rate is pretty high on Passing Downs, that suggests that you really don't trust that you can throw the ball downfield without a disaster.
• I changed "Total Turnover Points Margin" to "Turnover Points Margin per Game".  The numbers were getting pretty big, and it was easy to lose track of what the turnovers have meant on a game-to-game basis.

Alright...orgy time!  I should note that CUbuffs.com has a fantastic PDF of season stats as well.  I wish every school went into this much detail.

Thoughts after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

As we look at this season's to-date BTBS stats, keep in mind that we can approximately say that Mizzou and UT have played similar schedules.  I mean, OU > OSU, but Illinois > anybody UT played in non-conference.  In the end, it's more or less balanced out (to my naked eye, anyway), and we can take these stats at something close to face value.

Thoughts...

• This game will likely lie on the right arms of the two BFF's, Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy, as both teams have pretty stout run defenses.  UT's run defense is a little better, but MU's run offense is better, so unless Ogbonnaya continues to break off 1-2 big runs a game, this is pretty much a wash.
• One thing I find interesting: UT allows 2.28 line yards per carry.  So does Mizzou.  That's a very good number, but looking at the overall rushing numbers, I'd have expected a little better for UT.  For instance, they allow a 0.455 rushing S&P (compared to Mizzou's 0.542); but UT and Mizzou have allowed the exact same LY/carry.  The reason: while Mizzou has allowed few big rushes (longest five rushes: 68, 41, 35, 22, 18), UT has allowed almost no big rushes (longest five carries: 26, 26, 21, 21, 19).  Really, the only difference between the Mizzou rush defense and that of Texas is Kendall Hunter's 68-yard TD run and a 41-yard scamper by Illinois' Daniel Dufrene (which I do not even remotely remember--that game was a Shiner-and-Jager-fueled blur).
  
• Both teams are good at the leverage (avoiding Passing Downs on offense, moving opponents toward them on defense).  They stay near 80% leverage while holding their opponents near 60-65%.  Mizzou held OSU near 65%, while Texas held OU to 66%.  Again, this is important because even teams who generally perform well on Passing Downs can get bitten by them eventually (Mizzou against OSU, for instance).  The lower the leverage %, the more passing downs a team has to face.
• To no one's surprise, Mizzou has been more explosive than Texas to date (0.54 PPP vs 0.48 PPP).  UT's PPP has risen in the last couple of games, thanks to a few long plays to Chris Ogbonnaya.  I can't figure Ogbonnaya out--he doesn't look fast at all, but defenders can't seem to catch up to him.  And I don't know how much of his success has been due to his own skills or the skills of Colt McCoy and the guys blocking for him, but he's torched a decent defense (Colorado) and a good one (Oklahoma) so far, and you can't argue with results.
• Both teams have similar S&P margins, both overall and in close games.  In close games, MU is +0.427 (1.125 on offense, 0.698 on defense), while UT is +0.453.
• Both teams have the tendency to give up some big pass plays (they both allow at least 0.34 PPP in the passing game), but the key for Texas will be holding Mizzou as close as possible to the 37% success rate that Texas opponents have managed so far, instead of the 62% Mizzou has put up.  And it all ends up tying together.  An unsuccessful passing attempt here and there means more Passing Downs...and Mizzou sucked on Passing Downs against OSU.
• And speaking once more of Passing Downs, both defenses have been identically strong in this regard.
• Turnovers could always swing either way, but so far Mizzou has had a tendency of making more of the turnover game than UT has--they've benefitted from t/o's by about 3 more points per game.
• Mizzou's offense is best in Q1 and Q3, while their defense is best in Q2 and Q4, but overall they've been pretty consistently strong in both categories.  Meanwhile, OU game aside, UT has been best on offense in the first half and best on defense in the second half.
• Texas' defense has the overall advantage on Mizzou's, but Mizzou has been better (and allowed fewer big plays) on third downs.  Keep that in mind.

Projections after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

via farm4.static.flickr.com

This will get its own set of bullets: The Trib put out its First And Ten edition yesterday.

• MU stars get comfortable in the spotlight
• Getting there is half the fun (a look at the schedule)
• Star-studded Mizzou teams of earlier eras
• The ultimate defender (Willy Mo...who also gets pub from the P-D)
• Armed and dangerous (the Big 12's stud QBs)
• A twisted trip around the league (Joe Walljasper being Joe Walljasper)

Today's Braggin' Rights links:

• KC Star: MU-UI preview
• Mizzourah: MU-UI preview
• Champaign News-Gazette: Juice vs Chase
• PowerMizzou: Previewing the Illinois defense.
• Missourian: Juice starts season with a smile
• PowerMizzou: Three Tiger Keys against Illinois.

MAILBAG!!!

jeffrgoldberg asks: Outside of Maclin, Daniel and Moore, which player or position can Mizzou least afford to lose to injury? What position can Mizzou rebound most easily from injury?

This is going to surprise people, but it's Tim Barnes. The depth at center just isn't there. Barnes is head and shoulders above the guys behind him. If he goes down, I'm scared. I think they could most afford an injury at safety. No, you don't want Moore going down, but if Justin Garrett is hurt, I think Del Howard, Hardy Ricks, et al, would be okay.

The Missourian takes one last look at Derrick Washington before he attempts to prove himself.

If it's a big game, Missouri's in it.

Let's take a quick look at last night's results and share some comments...

• Wake Forest 41, Baylor 13.  Wake Forest just has the best counter-punch offense in the country.  You can get to them if you're athletic enough, but...Baylor's not athletic enough.  If they blitzed, they got burned for 10 yards, if they dropped back they got bumped for 5.  Wake Forest did whatever it wanted offensively...and only ended up with 376 total yards.  THAT's Wake Forest football.  Oh yeah, and Baylor still has a long way to go.  But they might as well just start Robert Griffin for the rest of the season.
• Iowa State 44, South Dakota State 17.  I'd be really impressed if this were D1 killer North Dakota State, but oh well.  I'll have to parse the play-by-play of this one soon, as I want to see just how telling it is that ISU only outgained SDSU 388-350.  Maybe SDSU got a ton of yards in Q4.
• Stanford 36, Oregon State 28.  Picked it.  :-)
• SEMO 35, Southwest Baptist 28 (OT).  Actually a nice comeback for SEMO from down 21-3.

The men's basketball team has finalized its schedule.  Haven't had time to digest it yet, but here it is.  And I haven't shared much about their Canada trip, so here's a link for that.  (And speaking of basketball, a moment of well-wishes to former Big 8 great Wayman Tisdale, who's struggling with cancer right now.)

Finally, some awesome reporter from the Maneater broke a volleyball story last night--Lindsey Hunter, Mizzou's all-time leading assists leader, is coming back to help the program and finish her degree.  That really can't be a bad thing.

I doubt this one becomes as long as the typical BTBS usually is, simply because I wrote a BTBS on Illinois about three months ago, and it's not like any games have happened since then.  But I still have some things to talk about.

'+' Projections

For one thing, using '+' ratings, we can actually somewhat project some points.  How, you ask?  Simple.  The EqPts+ number simply compares a team's performance with the averages of their opponents.  So watch what we can do...

Mizzou Rushing

• Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
• Illinois Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 9.06
• Projection #1: 16.20
• Illinois Rushing Defense EqPts+: 165.11
• Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 9.82

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 13.01

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 12.00 (I don't fear the loss of Tony Temple, but UI's D-line will be as good or better than last year's)

Mizzou Passing

• Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
• Illinois Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 9.88
• Projection #1: 14.78
  
• Illinois Passing Defense EqPts+: 87.04
• Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 21.14
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 17.96

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 18.00

Illinois Rushing

• Illinois Rushing Offense EqPts+: 171.78
• Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 14.24
• Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
• Illinois Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 17.78
• Projection #2: 11.70

Projected Illinois Rushing Output: 12.97

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 11.00 (Dufrene is decent, but he's no Mendenhall...and 6 of Mizzou's front 7 return)

Illinois Passing

• Illinois Passing Offense EqPts+: 72.33
• Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 8.78
• Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
• Illinois Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.37
• Projection #2: 5.22

Projected Illinois Passing Output: 7.00

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 9.00 (Mizzou's secondary returns intact, but Benn is healthy)

--

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 30.0, Illinois 20.0

Neat, huh?  So that gives us a jumping-off point for the game.  Turnovers and special teams can certainly make up an 11-point difference, plus if the offensive line is the last thing on a team to gel, that helps Illinois, as Mizzou's O-line has further to go to gel.

Continue reading this post »

The "Week of Roundtables" continues! The first edition of the Big 12 Roundtable is once again being spearheaded by Matt over at Crimson and Cream Machine.

1. There has been lots of talk this pre-season about scheduling. Colorado has arguably the strongest schedule but who do you think has the weakest and which cream puff on your teamʼs schedule do you wish wasnʼt there?

RMN: I don't think there's much question that Colorado has the toughest slate, but everyone is overlooking solid non-conference tests for Baylor and Oklahoma. The Bears will have their hands full with Wake Forest, Washington State and UConn in what could be a very rough intro to Baylor life for Art Briles. Oklahoma, after its cupcake date with Tennessee-Chattanooga, could be tested by either Cincy or TCU, and gets a front row seat to the Jake Locker experience on the road in Washington in between. Kansas State's slate would have been up with the best, but the dumping of Fresno State in favor of Montana State plummets their schedule near that conference cellar.

The weakest schedule, outside of a small argument for Kansas State, is far and away Texas Tech. Now, I'm not about to go condemning them for the schedule, as it seems most outlets ripping Tech completely ignored the extenuating circumstances. The Red Raiders slate of Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and UMass should provide little to no threat to Leach and Co.

As for Missouri, I'm in the process of pretending that the Southeast Missouri State isn't going to happen. Feel free to join me.

 
2. As a whole the Big 12 has the best quarterbacks in the country. Make a case for your quarterback being one of the conferenceʼs top signal callers and tell us which other conference quarterback you would pick to replace him if you had to.

RMN: I shouldn't have to make too much of a case for Chase Booger "Great Watermelon Balls of Fury" Daniel. You can start with his Heisman invite last year. You can continue with his 62 career touchdowns, 143.82 passer rating and nearly 9,000 total yards. You can look past the stats and go on intangibles alone. You can end with the short, undervalued gunslinger from Southlake leading Mizzou to heights not seen in a generation. There's no doubt the Big 12 is stacked with a ridiculous amount of talent at the quarterback position, but in my humble yet biased opinion, the controversy starts at No. 2 behind Daniel.

Replacing Daniel is a tough task, but that has a lot to do with personal biases. Graham Harrell puts up huge numbers and has a gun of an arm, but he is neither mentally nor physically tough. Ditto for Colt McCoy. Sam Bradford is extremely efficient, but I wonder what he would do if he wasn't behind the impenetrable force known as the Sooner O-Line. I love Todd Reesing's grittiness, but, come on, this is a Missouri site - I'm NOT taking Reesing to replace Daniel. Can I cop out and make a hybrid? I'll take the leadership of Reesing, the arm of Harrell, the composure of Bradford, the legs of Texas backup John Chiles and the cojones of Stephen McGee. I just created the Tim Tebow of the Big 12.

 
More questions after the jump...

Continue reading this post »