Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

• The Mizzou offense sputtered all night, as Chase Daniel seemed to have misplaced what arm strength he has in the locker-room before the game.  The defense, however, never gave K-State even a millisecond to breathe.  These are about the best close-game defensive stats that you'll ever see from a Mizzou defense.  Mizzou's 0.868 close-game S&P was a big disappointment considering the opponent, but K-State's 0.329 close-game S&P was amazingly low.
• Mizzou's biggest defensive problems in '08: occasional Passing Down lapses, Passing PPP.  K-State's Passing Downs S&P: 0.304.  K-State's Passing PPP: 0.20.  The fact that KSU only managed an overall 0.29 PPP despite a 93-yard run against the Mizzou scrubs tells you all you need to know, really.  We're all quick to unleash fury when Mizzou's defense doesn't live up to standards (as against Baylor), but we should be just as quick to throw praise in their direction when they're this dominant.  K-State's problem hasn't been offense this year (they don't have a great offense, but it's certainly been solid, especially in the passing game), but Mizzou completely and totally shut them down.
• Mizzou was as big an overachiever as you could find in the first half of the season when it came to success on Passing Downs.  But Chase Daniel has lost his mojo in this regard, and he knows it.  We can win the North even if he doesn't rediscover the magic, but we sure as hell won't have a chance in the Big 12 title game without it.
  

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1 - What did last week's string of upsets tell you about the current state of college football?

2 - A month into the season, where do you think Joe Ganz ranks among Big 12 QBs?

3 - For those who have seen Nebraska play at all this year, what do you think gives Nebraska the best opportunity of stopping the Mizzou offense enough to win?

4 - Big 12 Picks!

Texas @ Colorado
Kansas @ Iowa State
Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Oklahoma @ Baylor
ATM @ OSU

And finally...

Mizzou @ Nebraska

5 - Finally...on average, which game do you usually see as a bigger game in football: MU-NU or MU-KU?  (For Doug, change that to KU-KSU or MU-KU)  I think I've asked a question like this before, but...screw it.  I'm asking it again.

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Jared Perry dares you to press him.

Perry wasn’t happy with his diminished role and meager production but said he never considered transferring. After the Cotton Bowl, Perry talked with his parents in La Marque, Texas, and decided his only recourse was to rededicate himself to the game, especially considering there would be opportunities in spring camp with three-year starter Will Franklin headed to the NFL and classmate Danario Alexander recovering from knee surgery.

Shortly before spring practices began, he sat down with wide receivers coach Andy Hill and delivered a message.

"I told him he’s going to see a different person out of me," Perry said.

The results came instantly. Promoted to starter, perhaps by default with the turnover at receiver, Perry flashed his big-play ability from 2006 and entrenched himself in the starting lineup in time for preseason camp.

"I knew I had to gain confidence from everybody, the fans, the coaches," said Perry, who was voted the team’s most improved receiver during the spring. "I just tried to go out and practice and gain Chase’s respect that way."

The KC Star's Mike Dearmond makes a pretty good point: if we're going to blitz this much, we should probably think about actually getting to the QB more often.

Buffalo Links!

• Dave Matter: Behind the numbers
• Buffalo News: Naaman Roosevelt leads the charge
• Niagara Gazette: Willy sparking Bulls' resurgence
• Niagara Gazette: Tigers have nation's best offense

Jake Harry: well-rested.  And good.

It's Good, Bad and Sleazy time!!

Well, KSU didn't exactly repay me for my optimism last night.  31-14 on First Downs?  Really?  And only 12 carries?  And Josh Freeman still can't throw an out-route accurately...

It's not a great one, but...MAILBAG!!!

Finally...Mizzou Volleyball's now 0-1 in conference after a 4-set loss to OU in Norman last night.  Lei Wang was solid in the setting department, but...a) while both teams hit like crap (OU's .135 kill % was barely better than MU's .129), OU they had a go to girl--Francie Ekwerekwu--and we didn't; and b) we made another 12 freaking service errors.  That made the biggest difference.  The Tigers have to get the serving under control.  The Missourian has a nice article about the freshmen who are getting some decent playing time, but...well, they need to start playing better!

Alright, I guess I've talked about other conferences long enough.  I haven't given myself enough time to crank through the non-BCS conference (and anybody who knows me well, knows there's nothing I enjoy more than pretending I know a lot about the Eastern Michigan's and San Jose State's of the world), so I'll just do a Big 12 preview (set up like the others, only with links to my BTBS posts about Mizzou's 8 conference opponents) and uncork an overall national preview post next week.

North Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Defensive Points Per Play
• Redzone Defense
• Q4 Rushing Offense
  
• 3rd Down Defense
  

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q3 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q3 Passing S&P+
#4: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#104: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#103: Defensive Q3 S&P+
#99: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#96: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+, Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

You want to know how Mizzou differs from the stereotypical "spread offense, no defense" team?  Check out some of the '+' rankings in which they ranked in the Top 20. On offense, there was Close-Game Rushing S&P+, Rushing S&P+, and 3rd Down Rushing S&P+/Line Yards+.  On defense, there was Overall EqPts+, Close-Game Overall S&P+, Overall S&P+.  After a poor overall non-conference performance, the Mizzou defense really was one of the best in the country over the last 10 games of the season.  And the rushing offense was solid too.  They had almost no weakness from October onward.

So what does that mean for 2008?  Defensively, good things.  Lots of good things.  Even if they start slow again (and with so little new blood, you have to like the chances of avoiding that), this defense should end up in the Top 20 overall by end-of-season. One thing that Missouri did defensively better than just about any team in the country in '07 was take away its opponent's #1 (and sometimes #2) weapon.  Juice Williams & Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Purify & Marlon Lucky, Allen Patrick (and to an extent, Malcolm Kelly, though he still did rather well), Michael Crabtree, Todd Blythe, whoever Colorado's #1 weapon was, Jordy Nelson, Brandon McAnderson & Marcus Henry, Darren McFadden & Felix Jones. Just about everybody mentioned had extremely poor games against Missouri, at least until the game was out of hand in Q4.  If you had a good #3 or #4 option, you could move the ball against Mizzou.  But even then, your odds of major success using those options instead of your #1 or #2 are still limited.

I haven't mentioned the offense yet, but...well, you have to figure things are going to go just fine there.  Yes, there are a couple of new components--a RSFr left tackle and the first new starting center since 2004, for instance.  Plus, Tony Temple and Martin Rucker are gone.  Mizzou fans have extremely high hopes in their replacements (and in the case of Rucker's replacement, Chase Coffman is already almost more accomplished than Rucker anyway), but you never know what you're going to get until they show it on the field. 

Either way, though, an offense with Chase Daniel at the helm is going to succeed, and likely succeed big. If 2007 is any indication, there's one way to beat a Chase Daniel-led Missouri team: have a monstrous D-line, and hit Chase a lot.  Really, only two teams on the '08 schedule have really good lines--Illinois and Texas.  Illinois' is still as much about potential and athleticism as anything else, and Texas' was much better against the run than the pass, but those are the two biggest hurdles on the slate.

Verdict: While they may not be receiving any first-place votes, Missouri is as dangerous and proven as any team in the nation's Top Tier (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Mizzou, OU, USC, Ohio State).  They have a Heisman candidate at QB, speed speed speed at WR, the best hands in the country at TE (Coffman), a proven D-line, toughness and speed at LB (led by Sean Weatherspoon), an already-grizzled lock-down CB (Carl Gettis), and the best safety in the country (William Moore)...not to mention the most dangerous return man in the country (Jeremy Maclin) and the most consistent kicker in the Big 12 (Jeff Wolfert).  Barring a complete breakdown on the O-line, or a series of (KNOCK ON WOOD) injuries, Mizzou's got the talent to go undefeated and will be favored in at least 11 of the 12 games on their schedule.  They are, for 2008 at least, the class of the Big 12 North.

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First of all, everybody console Atch...who was screwed by weather and airlines out of a trip to the holy land this past weekend.  The highway's jammed with broken heroes on a last chance power drive, Atch.  Everybody's out on the run tonight, but there's no place left to hide...

1 - It's K-State week, so...K-State: bouncing back, or D-U-N?  Will the gamble on JUCOs pay off?

2 - What will be the score on 11/8 when K-State comes to Columbia?  And more importantly, if Mizzou's up 20 in the final seconds, will Ron Prince use all of his timeouts in a driving rainstorm again?

3 - Here's KSU's schedule.  Give me a W-L record:

8/30 - North Texas
9/6 - Montana State
9/17 - at Louisville
9/27 - UL-Lafayette
10/4 - Texas Tech
10/11 - at Texas A&M
10/18 - at Colorado
10/25 - Oklahoma
11/1 - at Kansas
11/8 - at Missouri
11/15 - Nebraska
11/22 - Iowa State

Seriously, look again at that 10/4 to 11/8 stretch.  That's two Top 15 teams at home, two more on the road, and two more bowl teams on the road...is it even possible to have a tougher stretch than that in the SEC??

4 - Give me a score: 2007 Mizzou vs 1998 Kansas State.

5 - Finally...anybody actually watch the Olympics anymore?

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Ever since MU walked off the field in Manhattan to a "Beat KU" serenade from KSU fans, it's been hard to hate K-State football.  But it's KSU week now, so I'll do my best!

As always, we start with the 2007 stats.  KSU outscored opponents in 2007, 35.2-30.8.  Of course, you take the 61-10 win over SMS out of the equation, and that drops to 32.8-32.7.  Either way, the point differential was good even if the final record was not.  The Wildcats averaged 133 rushing yards per game (4.5 per carry) and 285 passing yards per game (6.7 per pass).  Decent numbers to be sure.  The major problems were on the defensive side of the ball, where KSU fell apart over the last half of the season.  In the end, they gave up 142 rushing yards per game (3.7 per carry) and 259 passing yards per game (7.5 per pass...too high).  After a rather impressive performance at Auburn to start the season, things just got worse by the week, culminating in a disastrous trip to Lincoln, a senior day collapse against Mizzou, and a dud of a trip to Fresno State to end the season.

While the defense may take a step up with the presence of quite a bit of fresh, new blood, the offense will have to replace both its leading receiver (Jordy Nelson, 1606 receiving yards & 16 TDs) and leading rusher (James Johnson, 1106 rushing yards & 12 TDs), which may be a problem.  The 2nd-leading players in receiving and rushing (Deon Murphy, 605 receiving yards; Leon Patton, 390 rushing yards) have a lot of slack to pick up.

Be sure to check out the kstatesports.com 2008 Spring Prospectus (pdf) to see where K-State stood in February...

...and the Spring Game recap to see where they stood in April.  Granted, Josh Freeman only threw four passes, but...KSU QBs went a combined 10-for-28 for 73 yards.  Eesh.  The only offensive bright spot was walk-on JUCO transfer Keithen Valentine, who put up 104 yards on 15 carries.  But the poor offensive numbers mean the defense is improved, right?

TB at BOTC wraps up KSU's trip to Media Day in KC.  I'll say this--if there's a good reason to hate KSU right now, it emanates directly from the QB position.  I realize all QBs are supposed to think they're the best and all, but...damn, Josh.

There's a snide comment to be made toward this "Prince's plan in place" headline (I mean...a 12-13 record, major coaching staff turnover, and a recruiting class made of 80% jucos is the 'plan'?), but it's an interesting article nonetheless, I think.

"We've had to rely on, for lack of a better word, some luck and some gimmicks once in awhile because things weren't necessarily in motion," Campbell said. "You can't expect everything to be the way you want it within one or two years."

Prince inherited the Fresno series from Bill Snyder, along with much of his roster. Now, only a few holdovers remain from the Snyder era. It hasn't always been painless — Prince endured criticism for replacing longtime equipment manager Shorty Kleinau, for instance — but the conversion is nearly complete.

"He's got his guys, whether it be coaches or equipment or anything like that," Carney said. "It's his system, and we're here to run it."

That, perhaps, is the most tangible benefit of Prince's added experience.

"He's got guys where he wants them," Campbell said. "He's got some of his guys in place. He's got his schemes. He's got the type of coaches he wants. I feel like he's in a better position that he has been for the last year or two."

Lose your star RB?  No problem.  Lose your punter?  No problem.  You quickly catch on to Prince's interview style.  Everything's fine, fine indeed.

As mentioned many times on RMN, the story of KSU's offseason has really been about that 2008 recruiting class.

Thus, when the list is taken at face value, with such a heavy juco influx, Prince is perceived as a coach desperate to apply a quick fix. The notion is underscored by the four-game losing streak the Cats suffered at the end of last season to finish 5-7.

Prince insists, however, he has not panicked.

Junior college contributors, he said, are part of a longstanding heritage Kansas State embraces. The juco pool, he added, is an emerging market, which presents K-State a better opportunity to land a four-star prospect. A unique opportunity exists, he contends, for transfers who recognize K-State is willing to create more flexibility within its roster to account for more two-year players.

...

Obviously, there are potential problems to this approach.

Once the junior college carousel is put in place, it can spin out of control. Future classes will require heavy transfer numbers again in order to properly distribute depth, with fewer high school players coming through the ranks.

Former K-State coach Bill Snyder once confronted similar issues by leaning on juco talent, yet was masterful in how he assembled, and assimilated, transfers.

Now, Prince will try to do the same, only in a bigger way after signing 19 transfers. He'll attempt to make his model work within a division where the reigning champion, Missouri, signed absolutely no juco players to its 2008 class.

Finally, will Ron Prince get a raise?  I do believe I'd wait until the end of the 2008 season to think about that one...

--

Oh, and let's be honest: I wouldn't be a rival fan if I didn't link to this video in a Links post.

Less than six weeks till football season, and we've got ourselves a lengthy all-football Links post, baby!

It's time for Big 12 Media Day, and Mizzou is more than ready for its close-up.

Chase Daniel crouches a bit as Jeremy Maclin and Sean Weatherspoon take knees off Daniel’s shoulders.

It is a formation no one will ever see on a college football Saturday. Weatherspoon, after all, is an All-Big 12 linebacker for the Missouri Tigers. Daniel is a Heisman finalist quarterback and wide receiver Maclin is an All-America return man.

This is a setup. Someone with a water bottle hurries in, spritzing would-be beads of sweat on the players’ faces.

Welcome to the world of Sports Illustrated, the camera crew in town to record images that will grace the Midwest regional cover of SI’s college football preview issue.

Here now, No. 9, you stand here. Sean, move slightly to your right. Chase, look straight into the camera. OK. Now, profiles everyone.

Welcome to the Brave New World of Missouri football. The Tigers have arrived.

The Tigers are local celebrities, there's no doubting that.  Dave Matter has that and the season's first edition of Cut to the Chase at his blog.

BTS: Who during 7-on-7 practices impressed you most?

CD: You know, of course he’s going to be good, but I’ll tell you who had a really good 7-on-7 week in and week out: J-Mac. (Blogger’s note: That’s Jeremy Maclin for the uninitiated to the Tigers’ nickname lexicon.) He’s getting better as a receiver. He’s getting smarter. Last year he was running around with his head cut off, and he still had 1,000 yards receiving and 80 catches. You look at Wes Kemp as a freshman, he’s got a really good chance of playing. He’s got to go in and compete, and that’s the main thing with summer camp: going in and competing and getting better at each position and trying to win a starting spot.

The Post-Dispatch takes a look at the upcoming Heisman Chase (get it?  Heisman?  Chase?) and notes previous Mizzou Heisman hopeful campaigns that never left the ground.  Hopefully Chase doesn't get turf toe.

They also take a look at previous failed Heisman campaigns from around the country.  It's rather amusing, but...stop talking about failed Heisman campaigns already!

Dave Matter continues with his Big 12 player rankings by taking a stab at the QB position.  The #1 guy is pretty predictable.

Tired of talking about Chase?  Here's a Q&A with the best safety in the country, Willy Mo.

CS: Over the last two years there were two safeties I enjoyed watching in the country, former Arizona State star Josh Barrett (now with the Denver Broncos) and you. The two of you have a lot of qualities similar to the late, great Sean Taylor. I’m not sure if you were a fan of his, but did you watch him at some point and try to emulate some of the things he did on the field?

Moore: Anyone who has followed my career knows that I wore No. 21 before I switched to No. 1. The reason why I wore No. 21 was because of Sean Taylor. He was always my favorite player, besides Barry Sanders. I always looked up to Sean Taylor, and when he passed away, I wrote his number on my arm for one of our games. I always watched highlights of him; he was a great player.

After the outcry and exultation following the revelation that JUCO DE/god Brian Coulter had indeed enrolled at Mizzou, Big Head has found the first picture of Mr. Coulter and chosen to reveal some Brian Coulter Facts.  He puts the laughter in manslaughter, you know.

Gabe at PowerMizzou takes a stab at his own Big 12 North predictions.

Quick recruiting links: Mizzou can take a couple kids off the big board...Waco DE Andrew Weaver (who, I believe, was never seriously considering Mizzou) has committed to Texas A&M, Texas LB Tanner Brock (who, I believe, was never seriously considering Mizzou) has committed to TCU, and EStL WR Terry Hawthorne (who...well, you know) has committed to Illinois.  Now that THAT's out of the way, it looks like two players are giving Mizzou a bit more time and thought than I previously assumed: 4-star NC WR Jheranie Boyd (Mizzou was on his radar early, and he'll most likely stay on the east coast, but he wants to visit Columbia if at all possible) and 4-star TX LB Chris Williams (a BIG hitter who was considered a heavy LSU lean).

Here's a nice Q&A with Mike "10 Years at Mizzou" Alden.

Finally...via Gabe...look.  I realize that he's a perfect physical specimen, and I realize he's got the "coach's son" mentality, and I realize that he's beaten Texas twice...but if Josh Freeman is the #1 pick in the NFL draft next year...I dunno.  Ever since the whole "Beat KU" chant by KSU fans after last year's MU-KSU game, I've had trouble saying as many bad things about KSU as a whole (which has felt very odd), but I mean...come on...don't you have to have some semblance of accuracy and touch to be the #1 pick in the draft.  Won't scouts catch onto that once they, you know, watch him?  And this isn't a jealousy thing--I know that, whenever Freeman comes out, he'll be drafted higher than Chase Daniel.  As crazy as I think that is, I've long since accepted it.  But...#1?

Since they haven't been mentioned too much lately, I thought I'd take a quick look at Mizzou's three major leaguers:

* Max Scherzer: Threw two scoreless innings of relief against the Mets on Wednesday to lower his ERA from 3.10 to 2.90. In 31 innings, Mad Max has K'd 33 guys and only allowed a decent 39 hits/walks.

* Ian Kinsler: I'm still having trouble grasping the fact that, not only was it Kinsler who broke Mizzou's MLB-less streak, but he's also doing quite well in Arlington. He went 5-for-14 in three games against Kansas City this week, raising his average to a tidy .311, with 9 HRs and 39 RBIs. He doesn't walk a ton, but he's done it enough to post a .359 OBP and a .489 SLG (thanks mostly to 19 doubles), good for an un-secondbaseman-like .848 OPS. He's also currently second in All Star voting for AL 2B behind Dustin Pedroia. (Right now, the Sox and Yankees are accounting for the leaders in 6 of 8 position races and the DH.)

* Doug Mathis: Mr. Mathis has had, to say the least, an up and down season. Four starts have taken his ERA from 0.00 to 10.13 to 5.56 to 9.00 to 7.72. Two sparkling starts (a combined 11.1 IP and 3 ER) have been accompanied by two horrific ones (a combined 6 innings and 14 ER). But hey...he's 2-1!

Mizzou Track coach Dr. Rick McGuire can add another two All-Americans to his tally: Nick Adcock and Lars Rise finished 4th and 7th in the decathlon at Nationals yesterday. Congrats, guys. The KC Star has more on the meet.

I don't see this as a bad thing: Mizzou Basketball will head to Canada over Labor Day weekend for three exhibition games. The more reps, the better for what is going to be a super-young team. Steve Walentik has more. The last time Mizzou made a trip like this was to Australia in 1995, and hey...'95-'96 went great. Oh wait. No it didn't. Maybe this is a bad idea.

Now...he never actually uses the words "blown away" as suggested in the title, but it sounds like Southlake Carroll DE Brayden Burnett very much enjoyed his recent trip to Columbia (to the point where I'm sure Freeman will say that Mizzou's got a 104% chance to get him in his next hot list...I kid, I kid...). Dude's got 25+ offers, so it will be a solid competition for him, but...yeah, to say we've got connections with SLC is a bit of an understatement.

A couple interesting football links in Dave Matter's latest blog post. First, he talks about a few players who won't be in Kansas and Texas Tech uniforms this coming season. Kansas loses two defensive contributors--DT Todd Haselhorst and DB Anthony Webb. This aren't killer losses, but it does hurt their overall depth. Meanwhile, Tech will be without the services of RB Kobey Lewis (which really may be a loss) and DB Steven Harris (which...yeah, I've got nothing on him).

The second link says that Josh Freeman isn't going to go pro after this coming season. Um...yeah, I think that's probably smart.

Finally, this is no "Big 12 as Punch Out characters", but it sure ain't bad--it's "Big 12 as Potato Chips" (though I do resent the suggestion that only retards like Krunchers...and the fact that Colorado is underrated. Wait one more year before pulling the Colorado trigger.). Here's probably the best one:

Texas Tech- Blazing Buffalo & Ranch Doritos
Acquired taste. Both have been known to hit the spot, but could easily cause projectile diarrhea. It's a touchy situation around them. Basically 50/50 that it could either quell your need or make you shit a brick five minutes later at a truck stop in Lubbock.

Or maybe this one...sorry TB...

Kansas State- Funyuns
I realize this may be hard for you to believe, but in a past life, we were known to partake in some 'munchie needing' activities every once in awhile. With that said, K-State and Funyuns were great a few years ago. Now they are played out and everyone is embarrassed to be associated with them. To put it bluntly; they are f---ing terrible.