The Fog of '09 - North Defenses
by The Boy
on Nov 24, 2008 1:00 PM CST
in National Football 2008
Yesterday, it was North Offenses. Today, North Defenses.
Defensive Lines
- Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
- Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
- Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
- Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
- Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
- Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)
That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers. KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable. Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.
Linebackers
- Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
- Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
- Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
- Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
- Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
- Kansas (?)
I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong. If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009. Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has. Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average. NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.
Defensive Backs
- Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
- Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
- Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
- Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
- Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
- Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)
Oy. If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary. I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs. Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson. But only Carl Gettis will be proven.
Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.
North Defenses, 2009
- Nebraska (15)
- Missouri (12)
- Kansas State (11)
- Iowa State (10)
- Kansas (9)
- Colorado (6)
As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths. Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters. Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense. Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here. Big-time tossup. A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.
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Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW
by The Boy
on Sep 30, 2008 11:00 AM CDT
in Beyond the Box Score
We had a bye week, and there's no game for me to review...so let's go ahead and talk about Nebraska, shall we?
So the NCAA.org site from which I get my play-by-plays is screwing me this week, as half their games from last week aren't in the database correctly yet. That's preventing me from having the up-to-date '+' numbers I was hoping to have for conference play. Oh well, I guess. Instead, what you get is one monster BTBS season box score for both Mizzou and Nebraska. And after the jump, I'll play with projections the way I have been for the other '08 games so far.
If you have any questions about these numbers, please ask them. At some point I'll get to the new BTBS Glossary I've promised...but it hasn't happened yet. And if your eyes glaze over looking at numbers, check out the bullets after the box.
Nebraska |
Opponents |
Missouri |
Opponents |
|
| 59.4% | % Close | 51.9% | ||
| 45.7% | 54.3% | Field Position % | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 71.2% | 67.4% | Leverage % | 76.2% | 66.6% |
| Total | ||||
| 243 | 282 | Plays | 290 | 317 |
| 114.58 | 81.79 | EqPts | 163.85 | 87.14 |
| 46.5% | 38.7% | Success Rate | 58.3% | 38.8% |
| 0.47 | 0.29 | PPP | 0.57 | 0.27 |
| 0.937 | 0.677 | S&P | 1.148 | 0.663 |
| Close Games | ||||
| 141 | 171 | Plays | 182 | 133 |
| 67.07 | 49.82 | EqPts | 108.33 | 35.11 |
| 44.7% | 40.9% | Success Rate | 59.9% | 37.6% |
| 0.48 | 0.29 | PPP | 0.60 | 0.26 |
| 0.922 | 0.701 | S&P | 1.194 | 0.640 |
| Rushing | ||||
| 46.94 | 36.55 | EqPts | 60.64 | 21.96 |
| 42.4% | 36.3% | Success Rate | 51.9% | 37.4% |
| 0.38 | 0.27 | PPP | 0.47 | 0.17 |
| 0.800 | 0.634 | S&P | 0.989 | 0.542 |
| 2.82 | 2.52 | Line Yds/carry | 3.31 | 2.23 |
| Passing | ||||
| 67.64 | 45.24 | EqPts | 103.21 | 65.18 |
| 50.8% | 40.8% | Success Rate | 63.4% | 39.8% |
| 0.57 | 0.31 | PPP | 0.64 | 0.35 |
| 1.082 | 0.716 | S&P | 1.275 | 0.748 |
| Non-Passing Downs | ||||
| 54.3% | 45.3% | Success Rate | 62.9% | 44.5% |
| 0.53 | 0.31 | PPP | 0.60 | 0.31 |
| 1.071 | 0.766 | S&P | 1.228 | 0.754 |
| Passing Downs | ||||
| 27.1% | 25.0% | Success Rate | 43.5% | 27.4% |
| 0.33 | 0.24 | PPP | 0.46 | 0.21 |
| 0.605 | 0.491 | S&P | 0.890 | 0.481 |
| Turnovers | ||||
| 7 | 6 | Total | 5 | 7 |
| 11.66 | 18.12 | Points Lost | 14.68 | 18.27 |
| 23.69 | 18.12 | Points Given | 12.31 | 33.76 |
| 35.35 | 36.24 | Total T/O Pts | 26.99 | 52.03 |
| +0.89 | -0.89 | T/O Pts Margin | +25.04 | -25.04 |
| Q1 | ||||
| 46.8% | 42.9% | Success Rate | 60.8% | 41.5% |
| 0.49 | 0.30 | PPP | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| 0.957 | 0.727 | S&P | 1.254 | 0.667 |
| Q2 | ||||
| 42.6% | 40.8% | Success Rate | 62.0% | 38.6% |
| 0.45 | 0.27 | PPP | 0.65 | 0.26 |
| 0.880 | 0.680 | S&P | 1.272 | 0.650 |
| Q3 | ||||
| 49.1% | 46.5% | Success Rate | 61.5% | 37.8% |
| 0.49 | 0.31 | PPP | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| 0.982 | 0.779 | S&P | 1.212 | 0.704 |
| Q4 | ||||
| 47.7% | 25.0% | Success Rate | 46.8% | 37.8% |
| 0.46 | 0.28 | PPP | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| 0.932 | 0.528 | S&P | 0.789 | 0.638 |
| 1st Downs | ||||
| 55.3% | 41.5% | Success Rate | 61.1% | 43.3% |
| 0.59 | 0.31 | PPP | 1.01 | 0.34 |
| 1.138 | 0.723 | S&P | 1.623 | 0.773 |
| 2nd Downs | ||||
| 38.9% | 34.8% | Success Rate | 60.2% | 34.0% |
| 0.41 | 0.21 | PPP | 0.53 | 0.22 |
| 0.800 | 0.561 | S&P | 1.131 | 0.561 |
| 3rd Downs | ||||
| 35.6% | 38.5% | Success Rate | 48.8% | 34.3% |
| 0.29 | 0.32 | PPP | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| 0.642 | 0.708 | S&P | 0.936 | 0.553 |
Thoughts...
- Nebraska has actually lost the field position battle (Field Position % = plays you've run in your opponent's territory vs plays they've run in your territory) so far this year. They've come up with some big plays so far, but that's a little bit alarming. Some teams are really good at the bend-don't-break thing, but it's a dangerous game.
- Less than 1/4 of Missouri's plays are Passing Downs. Oh yeah, and they're just about the best in the country at converting Passing Downs.
- Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.
- Mizzou's only giving up 2.23 Line Yards per carry. I thought it would be higher than that, even against relatively weak competition. That's a stout run defense right there.
- Nebraska's passing game is downright solid, especially considering Joe Ganz only has one 'shows up every game' weapon at his disposal, Nate "Remember Me?" Swift.
- Oh yeah, and Mizzou's 1.275 Passing S&P is unbelievable.
- If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.
- Mizzou is the poster child for why Turnover Points Margin is so much more telling than Turnover Margin. What happens when you put up 3 INT's for TD in 4 games? You average a more than 6-point turnover advantage per game.
- Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team. They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.
- Meanwhile, their defense is pretty stout in Q4. Don't know if that's because of the competition or not, but let's just go ahead and make sure this game is out of reach in Q3, shall we?
- Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3. We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off. They start fast and stay fast. Their Q4 numbers are down, but put little stock in that--they've only played their starters in Q4 in 2 of 4 games. They weren't wonderful offensively against Illinois in Q4, but that's a quite small sample size, no?
- Mizzou's offense is RIDICULOUS on first downs. A 1.623 S&P? Seriously?
- The game could be made or broken on third downs. Nebraska is -0.062 S&P on third downs (0.642 on offense, 0.708 on defense), while Mizzou is +0.383. You have to figure that home field advantage is most apparent on third downs, so Mizzou's advantage will shrink because of that...but that's still pretty significant right there.
Alright, projections after the jump...
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