I forgot today was Wednesday (it's been that kind of week), but ZouDave came through with Roundtable questions.  Hoooorraaaaaay, ZouDave!

1 - On a scale of 1-14, with 1 being "not even a little" and 14 being "Jenna Haze on Ecstasy", how bad does Mediacom's service suck in the Columbia area?

2 - Which was it, a bad game from Mizzou or a good game from Buffalo?

3 - Now that your team's non-conference schedule is complete (see what I did there, Doug?), what are you most happy about? What are you most concerned with?

4 - It's a bye week. What will you be doing on Saturday in place of watching your favorite team?

5 - Big 12 picks!

Colorado at Florida State
Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State
Virginia Tech at Nebraska
TCU at Oklahoma
Troy at Oklahoma State
Army at Texas A&M

Continue reading this post »

Well, I still don't feel like we have enough of a sample size to use 2008 numbers here yet, so once again we'll use 2007 numbers and rely on some manual adjustments on my part...

Mizzou-Buffalo Projections

Mizzou Rushing

• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
• 2007 Buffalo Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.73
• Projection #1: 18.77
• 2007 Buffalo Rushing Defense EqPts+: 72.84
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 22.25

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 21.51

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0 - It's official: Derrick Washington is the man.  I was unimpressed with the run-blocking against Nevada, but I'll give them a pass.  Struggle with success rates against Buffalo, and we've got trouble.

Mizzou Passing

• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
  
• 2007 Buffalo Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.63
• Projection #1: 18.23
  
• 2007 Buffalo Passing Defense EqPts+: 75.78
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 24.28
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 21.26

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0 - It's official: Mizzou's passing game is better in 2008.

Buffalo Rushing

• 2007 Buffalo Rushing Offense EqPts+: 74.43
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 6.17
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
• 2007 Buffalo Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 9.38
• Projection #2: 7.69
  

Projected Buffalo Rushing Output: 6.93

Adjusted for 2008: 6.0 - They held Nevada below their average, and Buffalo doesn't have Colin Kaepernick and his play-fakes.

Buffalo Passing

• 2007 Buffalo Passing Offense EqPts+: 90.69
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 11.01
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
• 2007 Buffalo Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 9.26
• Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Buffalo Passing Output: 9.97

Adjusted for 2008: 11.0 - I'm willing to accept that the Willy-to-Roosevelt combo is worth a few points.

--

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 48, Buffalo 17

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 51, Buffalo 14

Continue reading this post »

(Photo courtesy Jonathan Brownfield, MUTigers.com)

Well, I'm absolutely soaked after the floods came on the walk back to the car after Mizzou's 69-17 thrashing of Nevada, so I'll go ahead and open up this thread for postgame reaction while I head off to take a shower.

The postgame podcast should be posted sometime soon, and Good, Bad, and Indifferent will be available after the jump on this post later in the day.

UPDATE, by rptgwb at 5:37 p.m.: Good, Bad, Indifferent now after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

It's Thursday, so you know what that means...BTBS Day!!  At some point in the season, I'll be able to start using 2008 '+' numbers, but the +'s need quite a decent sample size to be even remotely accurate, so for now I'm still going with the "2007 #'s + adjustments" method.

Mizzou-Nevada Projections

Mizzou Rushing

• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
• Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 10.78
• Projection #1: 19.27
• Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts+: 132.50
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 12.23

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 15.75

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Washington > Temple in my eyes, and if Nevada sells out to stop the pass, look out.)

Mizzou Passing

• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
  
• Nevada Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.41
• Projection #1: 17.06
  
• Nevada Passing Defense EqPts+: 126.17
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 14.58
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 15.82

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Mizzou's offense is harder to stop than Texas Tech because of both the running game and the use of tight ends.  Tech may have a Jeremy Maclin equivalent--okay, better--in Michael Crabtree, but they don't have a Chase Coffman equivalent.)

Nevada Rushing

• Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts+: 133.67
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 11.08
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
• Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.49
• Projection #2: 9.53
  

Projected Nevada Rushing Output: 10.31

Adjusted for 2008: 7.00 (So far, Mizzou's been sturdy against the run, and combined with the loss of Luke Lippincott, UNR should find it hard to move the ball on the ground.)

Nevada Passing

• Nevada Passing Offense EqPts+: 126.17
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 15.32
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
• Nevada Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 12.58
• Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Nevada Passing Output: 12.12

Adjusted for 2008: 14.00 (Nevada's passing game is inconsistent, but pretty decent at the deep ball.  Until Mizzou slows down a passing game, we have to give the edge to the opponent here.)

--

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 38, Nevada 21

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nevada 17

Continue reading this post »

We're going to set up projections the same way we did for Illinois (I will not give SEMO the short shrift!), only to get enough of a sample size, I'm not going with SEMO, but with "FCS Tier 6", the estimated amalgamation of the worst FCS teams to play D1 opponents in 2007.  (I've explained this before, but basically I combined the 1-AA/FCS teams into six tiers and grouped their stats together thusly.)

So without further adieu...

Mizzou-SEMO Projections

Mizzou Rushing

• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
• FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 19.77
• Projection #1: 35.34
• FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts+: 50.18
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 32.30

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 33.82

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

Mizzou Passing

• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
• FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 17.32
• Projection #1: 25.90
  
• FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts+: 45.11
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 40.79
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 33.35

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

SEMO Rushing

• FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts+: 47.00
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 3.90
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
• FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.57
• Projection #2: 4.98

Projected SEMO Rushing Output: 4.44

Adjusted for 2008: 2.50 (I liked what I saw against Illinois)

SEMO Passing

• FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts+: 38.82
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 4.71
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
• FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 4.44
• Projection #2: 3.15

Projected SEMO Passing Output: 3.93

Adjusted for 2008: 4.50 (are the troubles with Mizzou's Passing D enough to accidentally give up a long pass to SEMO at some point?)

--

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 56.0, SEMO 7.0

Continue reading this post »

The Mizzourah/Rock M Nation Podcast is back again this week, chocked full with the shenanigans you've come to expect our two sites. This week, it's me, The Boy, and Big Head discussing the following:

• NCAA 09 Prediction for Illinois
• Chase Daniel drinking game!
• Debating the neutral site game schedules with Illinois and Kansas
• Thoughts on Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn
• Concerns about the Mizzou offense/the blueprint for beating Mizzou
• Is this the best Mizzou defense of the Pinkel era?
• A toast to Rex Sharp
• Love for the Brandon Gerau jersey
• Pimping the Rock M Nation Store and Hot Chicks with k.u.chebags

-- Don't forget to stop by iTunes and subscribe to the Mizzourah.net/RockMNation.com Podcast

 As always, we start with practice reports.  From PowerMizzou...

Del Howard did a nice job in coverage against Earl Goldsmith. I have some questions about Howard's hands, but he looks to be doing well in coverage.

Hardy Ricks stood out to me, particularly in coverage against Jeremy Maclin on one rep. Ricks said he feels more comfortable at safety than he was at corner and I think he's picked things up well. I'll have an audio interview with Hardy, and a couple others as well, later this afternoon.

From The Missourian...

In Monday's practice, Chase Coffman was noticeably favoring his right hand. The pinkie finger was broken in practice last week, and Coffman has had it heavily wrapped underneath his gloves in practice ever since. The senior tight end said he was running routes in practice late last week, and got it tangled up in a teammate's jersey.

"It hurts quite a bit," Coffman said, when asked how it felt when he tried to catch balls. "It's a little bit of a distraction, but I just need to get out there and get used to it in case it isn't better by the time season starts."

From the Post-Dispatch...

With so many players returning, there are few starting spots up for grabs, but the scrimmage will also be important as the staff makes decisions on which freshmen will play and which won’t.

“You start leaning, the percentages start going higher,” [Pinkel] said. “Right now if a guy’s got a 70 percent chance of playing some as a freshman, that might go up to 90. We very rarely say you’re in. We’re starting to make those decisions and by the beginning of next week, we’ll pretty much be locked in.”

From Dave Matter...

Safety Gilbert Moye got chewed out after the play … and then again when he walked off the field rather than jog. It's obvious Moye has struggled at times the last week, and the body language isn't going to help his cause. But he doesn't have to look further than William Moore for some guidance. In fact, I wouldn't leave Moore's shadow if I were Moye.

I have a pretty good "transfer radar", and Moye's been my biggest transfer concern for a while.  He was a highly-recruited Texas kid, he's stuck on the 3rd string, and he sometimes displays hints of an attitude problem.  As The Beef said via e-mail yesterday, this will be a good test of Willy Mo's leadership ability.  Here's to hoping it turns around for Moye, but he's certainly been having many more ups and downs than the other safeties.

Also: both Gabe and Matter mentioned that Austin Wuebbels was getting more and more snaps at 1st-string RG.

Woohoo, the videos are back!


Gary Pinkel Interview - Day 8 of Camp from Tribune Sports on Vimeo.

 So it sounds like Mizzou will be utilizing every ounce of Carl Gettis' talent (and taking advantage of the fact that we're deep at CB) in 2008.  Meanwhile, Willy Mo is free to roam.

 The Post-Dispatch is finally back to rolling with Mizzou articles...today's is about Lorenzo Williams' growing-ever-more-capable replacement, Jaron Baston.

 As was mentioned yesterday, Mizzou did in fact get a commit from PA WR Jaleel "Boo" Clark yesterday...Gabe at PowerMizzou dug up this link on him as well.  He's not Marlon Brown, but he sounds like a pretty damn solid pickup for the Tigers...

 Finally, I forgot to mention this yesterday, but...congrats to Mizzou's other other Olympian, Linas Kleiza...who made the game-winning 3-pointer to give Lithuania a win over Manu Ginobili's Argentina squad, the defending Olympic champs.

And speaking of Mizzou...apparently we made our presence felt on the Today Show...

So as we read practice report after practice report, we can start to see a few emerging battles that we can pay attention to as the rest of August progresses (three weeks till kickoff!!!).  I thought I'd walk through the major battles (at least, 'major' as I see them).  If nothing else, this will give you something else to think about when you're reading the multitude of reports from Matter, Gabe, et cetera.

Some of the questions I had at the beginning of practice seem to have resolved themselves:

• Which freshman WR will emerge?  Answer: Jerrell Jackson.
• Will anyone challenge Jake Harry at punter?  Answer: No.
• Who will emerge as the main backup defensive tackle?  Answer: Terrell Resonno.
• Will Derrick Washington hold onto his #1 RB gig?  Answer: a resounding yes.
• Will LB depth be a problem?  Answer: not really
• Will anybody challenge Castine Bridges for starting CB opposite Carl Gettis?  Answer: nope.
• Will Blaine Gabbert challenge Chase Patton for the backup QB gig?  Answer: not yet.
• Will Dan Hoch look as good from Day One as some thought he would?  Answer: not yet.
• Will Justin Garrett face a challenge at SS?  Answer: nope.  He may be close to making a junior-to-senior surge like Pig Brown did last year.  Okay, maybe not to that extent, but he seems to know what he's doing now.

Right Guard: Dain Wise vs Austin Wuebbels

This one's come out of nowhere.  Early on we were hearing that none of the right guards could block Ziggy Hood, and after yesterday's practice it sounds like the RSFr Wuebbels has gained some steam.  Wuebbels only gained notice in the spring when he was arrested for marijuana possession, and I had somewhat written off his chances of seeing too much of the field this year.  But Wise, who has been "the next star O-Lineman" for three years now but has never seized one of the starting jobs, has failed to separate himself so far in August.  The O-line always seems like the last unit to find a rhythm when practices start, so a lot will still work itself out here (and Dan Hoch could still catch on and insert himself into the 2-deep), but for now assumed-starter Wise has a battle on his hands.  My prediction: Wise retains the job.  But here's to hoping he actually wins it instead of being the default winner.

Main Backup Defensive End: Brian Coulter vs Michael Keck

At the end of spring, two redshirt freshmen--Michael Keck and Chris Earnhardt--had seized the backup DE roles, and when you've got two senior starters, that's a pretty damn nice situation.  However, that was before God Himself, Brian Coulter, made his way to campus, and folks started thinking that he might even overtake perpetually-underappreciated Tommy Chavis as the starter opposite Stryker Sulak.  But then Coulter went and tweaked his ankle.  He's not yet to full-speed, so the Coulter vs Keck (and maybe Earnhardt) battle is still waiting to come to fruition.  But Coulter has three weeks to show his stuff, and we'll all continue to assume he'll do just that.  However...My prediction: I'm skeptical of JUCOs as a whole (though top JUCO DEs usually work out relatively well), so I say Keck is the #3 DE at the start of the season.  We'll see what's developed by mid-season, however.

Nickel Back: Del Howard vs Hardy Ricks (vs Gilbert Moye)

I don't know what to do with Hardy Ricks.  He started last year as starting CB but quickly proved that he's more adept at hitting than covering.  I was advocating, as were many others, that Ricks move to safety, especially after he got injured and lost his starting job, and he did a pretty decent job with the position in the spring.  Howard made a similar transition about 12 months ago, having his redshirt ripped off to play CB in his freshman campaign, then moving to safety in the offseason.  When Pig Brown got hurt, it was a battle for playing time between Howard and Justin Garrett, and though Howard seems to have better ball skills, Garrett was more trustworthy and got the majority of playing time.  Mizzou safeties seem to make a surge between their sophomore and junior seasons--just ask William Moore, Justin Simpson, or David Overstreet--and I've been expecting something similar with Del.  At this point, he seems steady but not necessarily any better than Ricks.

Moye, meanwhile, has a sickening amount of athletic ability but is finding out that the safety position has a pretty slow learning curve.  He seems to make more good AND bad plays than either Howard or Ricks, but I have to figure he's going to stay behind both of them in '08.  By 2009, on the other hand...we'll see.

This battle is important for playing time, but it's quite possible that two of these three will be Mizzou's starting safeties in 2009, so I'd prefer to see all continue to get more and more experience.  My prediction: I say Ricks overtakes Howard and gives Mizzou yet another hard hitter in the nickel package.

Now...I'm doing a lot of speculating considering Mizzou's only one week into August practices, and it's quite possible I could write this exact same post next Sunday with three completely different positions up for grabs.  But this team has (knock on wood) so many certainties to it right now...barring injury (KNOCK ON WOOD), we're pretty much set, unless Jerrell Jackson continues to surge and threatens Jared Perry's starting spot.