Can you feel it?  That's right...BTBS is back in your life...

* % close = the % of plays in the game that took place when the score was within two possessions.  It gives you a different way of looking how tight the game really was.  If a team scores two late TDs against scrubs and only loses by 14, the game may look like it was competitive, but "% of plays' will show that it probably wasn't.  On the other hand, if a game is within 3 points with two minutes to go, and the leader scores two late TDs, the score won't indicate how tight the game really was.

** Points Lost = the combined points lost via turnover, as determined by the point value of the team's starting field position.  Example: Sean Weatherspoon's first INT took place with Illinois at Mizzou's 29.  The Mizzou 29 was worth 3.41 EqPts, meaning Illinois "lost" 3.41 points on the play.

*** Points Given = the combined points handed to the other team via turnover, as determined by the point value of the resulting field position.  Example: Back to Weatherspoon's first INT--it resulted in Mizzou starting at their own 26, which is worth 1.27 EqPts.  So Illinois "gave" Mizzou 1.27 points on the play.  And obviously both Pick Sixes were worth 7 "points given".

Analysis after the jump.

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So after taking a day to digest what happened in St. Louis, I whipped out the TiVo to try to figure out exactly what most Mizzou fans were thinking: what the hell went wrong with our pass defense?

I went back through Juice's first four touchdown passes (before my TiVo cut out) to try to assess what the scheme was, what went wrong, and who exactly was to blame.

TOUCHDOWN PASS NO. 1:

The situation is stated in the top left corner of the diagram. Mizzou leads 7-0 but Illinois has worked into MU territory. The Illini line up in the Gun, with Dufrene left of Juice, a split end out wide on the left, a tight end to the right, and Judson and an unspecified slot receiver on the right. The left side of the field, both offense and defense, is unidentifiable but is also fairly inconsequential during the course of the play. 

The play begins with a playfake from Juice to Dufrene, which at first appears to suck in Sean Weatherspoon. As the play develops though, Spoon shuffles along the line of scrimmage, showing himself  to be playing a QB spy. Brock Christopher sits in a zone to take away the middle of the field.

The secondary is where the problem begins to occur. William Moore, lined up on the slot receiver before the snap, is sent on a nickel back blitz. This leaves safety Justin Garrett in man on the slot receiver (who I think was Arrelious Benn), who runs a post route and forces Garrett to the middle of the field. This route keeps Garrett from providing any support over the top, leaving Kevin Rutland in man-on-man with Will Judson on the right sideline. Judson barely gets by Rutland and goes up to make a great catch for the touchdown.

Here's the kicker, though. The coverage from Rutland was OUTSTANDING. But here's the thing about playing defensive back - you can be in perfect position and be step-for-step with the receiver, and if you don't make a play on the ball, it doesn't mean squat. Rutland NEVER looks back at the ball, giving Judson a chance to go up over him and get it.

Moore and/or Eberflus can be faulted for the ineffectiveness of the blitz, as Willy Mo is easily picked up by the IU O-Line. Moore is officially taken out of the play, but at the speed that this play developed, I'm not sure that it would have mattered.

VERDICT: Eberflus sent Moore on the blitz hoping that either A) Willy Mo would get to Juice first or B) Garrett and Rutland would be able to hold their own in man coverage. He was wrong about Part A, and very nearly right about Part B. This one is pretty much ALL on Rutland. A good defensive back has to have an innate sense of when the ball is in the air and show the ability to go up and make a play on it.

Breakdowns of the next three TD passes after the jump.

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I doubt this one becomes as long as the typical BTBS usually is, simply because I wrote a BTBS on Illinois about three months ago, and it's not like any games have happened since then.  But I still have some things to talk about.

'+' Projections

For one thing, using '+' ratings, we can actually somewhat project some points.  How, you ask?  Simple.  The EqPts+ number simply compares a team's performance with the averages of their opponents.  So watch what we can do...

Mizzou Rushing

• Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
• Illinois Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 9.06
• Projection #1: 16.20
• Illinois Rushing Defense EqPts+: 165.11
• Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 9.82

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 13.01

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 12.00 (I don't fear the loss of Tony Temple, but UI's D-line will be as good or better than last year's)

Mizzou Passing

• Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
• Illinois Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 9.88
• Projection #1: 14.78
  
• Illinois Passing Defense EqPts+: 87.04
• Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 21.14
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 17.96

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 18.00

Illinois Rushing

• Illinois Rushing Offense EqPts+: 171.78
• Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 14.24
• Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
• Illinois Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 17.78
• Projection #2: 11.70

Projected Illinois Rushing Output: 12.97

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 11.00 (Dufrene is decent, but he's no Mendenhall...and 6 of Mizzou's front 7 return)

Illinois Passing

• Illinois Passing Offense EqPts+: 72.33
• Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 8.78
• Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
• Illinois Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.37
• Projection #2: 5.22

Projected Illinois Passing Output: 7.00

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 9.00 (Mizzou's secondary returns intact, but Benn is healthy)

--

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 30.0, Illinois 20.0

Neat, huh?  So that gives us a jumping-off point for the game.  Turnovers and special teams can certainly make up an 11-point difference, plus if the offensive line is the last thing on a team to gel, that helps Illinois, as Mizzou's O-line has further to go to gel.

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The Mizzourah/Rock M Nation Podcast is back again this week, chocked full with the shenanigans you've come to expect our two sites. This week, it's me, The Boy, and Big Head discussing the following:

• NCAA 09 Prediction for Illinois
• Chase Daniel drinking game!
• Debating the neutral site game schedules with Illinois and Kansas
• Thoughts on Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn
• Concerns about the Mizzou offense/the blueprint for beating Mizzou
• Is this the best Mizzou defense of the Pinkel era?
• A toast to Rex Sharp
• Love for the Brandon Gerau jersey
• Pimping the Rock M Nation Store and Hot Chicks with k.u.chebags

-- Don't forget to stop by iTunes and subscribe to the Mizzourah.net/RockMNation.com Podcast

We continue our looks at other conferences by moving to the north and east...to Big Ten country.

Same rules as apply as with my SEC Preview (Part One, Part Two). I'm calling this a "Beyond the Box Score" preview, but I'm going to make it as non-number friendly as possible.  I'm going to use some BTBS concepts to set up the team previews, but the rest will be more standard analysis.  And hopefully that will make you want to learn the BTBS concepts.  Or something like that.

Here's what we're going to do: I'm going to address each team's four main "Game-Changing Stats" emerging from their WinCorr's (I didn't figure anybody would care if I didn't list out the top 20 statistical categories as I've been doing recently...correct me if I'm wrong).  Then I'll look at their national '+' rankings and list their best and worst categories.

Ohio State (7-1)

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Defense.
  
• 2nd Down Defense.
• Overall Defense, Passing Downs.
  
• Q2 Offense.
  

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Non-Passing Down S&P+
#1: Defensive Passing Down S&P+
#1: Defensive 1st Down S&P+, Defensive 2nd Down S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#99: Offensive 1st Down Rushing S&P+
#95: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#84: Offensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#81: Offensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#81: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+

They were #1 in 13 defensive categories overall.  They were to defense what Florida was to offense.  (It's important to remember this in light of the fact that, well, nobody really respects them a whole lot after the national title game problems.  This is a good team.)  The question is, if they do get back to the title game (and let's face it--the schedule screams 11-1), can they get over the hump?  The game-changing stats suggest that it's possible.

First of all, everyone but Larry Grant and Vernon Gholston return on the defensive side, and while Gholston's loss is a blow, his replacement Lawrence Wilson is experienced and was a starter last year until a broken leg ended his season.  That, combined with a more experienced secondary, means a continued stout pass defense is likely.  The question is, can they avoid the occasional breakdown?  Like other good defenses--LSU, Auburn--OSU had a bit of trouble with Passing Down breakdowns, but it wasn't a tremendously huge issue.  Lord knows they didn't lose to LSU because of the defense.

No, the trouble was on offense.  Todd Boeckman did his best Craig Krenzel impersonation for most of the season, and while it was good enough for 11 wins, he really didn't come through when it counted most.  He averaged just 182 yards passing while getting sacked 7 times in their two losses.  He will likely be complemented this fall by the guy everybody got tired of last winter, #1 high school recruit Terrelle Pryor.  Installing a run-oriented package for Pryor a few plays a game could help with some of the key rushing/redzone stats--a backfield of Pryor and Beanie Wells shouldn't have any problem with 1st or 3rd down rushing (though it might not help Q2/Q4 passing).  And that could make a huge difference in key moments.

Summary: If their defense remains as good as ever, and the running game improves...that leaves the passing game.  They struggled passing in the "talent" quarters (Q2/Q4), and Terrelle Pryor probably won't help in that regard.  It's up to Boeckman and his key receivers--Brian Robiskie, Brian Hartline, Ray Small--to actually make some plays against good secondaries, and until they do, tOSU will still be a bit limited.

Verdict: Of course, they'll still win the Big Ten, so 'limited' is a relative term.  If I'm ranking teams based on who I think would beat whom, this team falls below Georgia, USC, OU, Florida, Missouri, and possibly LSU.  But we all know they'll be right there in the title hunt at the end of the season.  Accept it, live it, love it.

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That's right, just when you least expect it...we're back, baby! It's "Illinois Week" at RMN, so it's time for some Illinois-related questions! Doug, I'm including you in on this even though, well, it does not really pertain to Kansas. Then again when does it pertain to Kansas?? Robot? You out there somewhere?

1 - We'll start with something basic--Ron Zook continues to build depth with his recruiting, but Illinois lost its main offensive (Mendenhall) and defensive (Leman) weapon. Does Illinois get better or worse in 2008?

2 - One a scale of 1 to 10 (10 being Kansas, 1 being...I dunno...Arkansas-Pine Bluff), rate the MU-UI football rivalry right now.

3 - Make your "Arch Rivalry" prediction.

4 - Who's your favorite Illinois resident/native (Illinoisian?) of all-time?

5 - And just for fun...completely unrelated to Illinois...make your Lakers-Celts prediction. And how many times did you have to hear Stu Scott say "It's about history. It's. About. History." before you vomited all over yourself? It only took once for me.

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Sniff...Beyond the Box Score, I've missed you ever so.  Life seemed incomplete without you...especially considering I've spent a good portion of my last 6 months entering play-by-play information in preparation for bringing you back into my life.  It's all at my fingertips now, and Illinois is the beneficiary of that.

Actually, that's a lie.  It's all at my fingertips, but I don't know what to do with it all.  By the time we get further into the schedule here, I'll have a lot more interesting tidbits and my fingertips, but for now I'm stuck using the same sort of measures I looked at last year.  Which isn't bad by any means...just not as good as it will be.

So for now we're focusing on three major numbers for the most part: success rates, PPP (Points Per Play), and S&P (Success Rates + Points Per Play).  You remember these old friends, right?  If not, go here.

Let's get started...see where this takes us!  (And if your eyes start to glaze over from all the random numbers, just hop down to the Conclusion at the end...and don't forget to take the poll!)

ALL PLAYS (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing

Illinois: 49.6% / 0.42 / 0.916
Opponents: 41.2% / 0.30 / 0.709

Passing

Illinois: 39.5% / 0.33 / 0.722
Opponents: 40.3% / 0.29 / 0.692

Total

Illinois: 45.9% / 0.39 / 0.844
Opponents: 40.7% / 0.29 / 0.700

Illinois really wasn't that great a passing team, but you probably didn't need creative numbers to tell you that. The typical stats (167 passing yds/game, 15 TD, 15 INT) do just fine there. Rejus Benn was solid as a freshman, but he wasn't tremendously consistent from game to game. He needs to be healthy and consistent this year.

CLOSE GAMES ONLY

Rushing

Illinois: 50.5% / 0.41 / 0.913
Opponents: 39.9 / 0.25 / 0.650

Passing

Illinois: 38.9% / 0.31 / 0.703
Opponents: 40.0% / 0.25 / 0.648

Total

Illinois: 46.2% / 0.37 / 0.835
Opponents: 40.0% / 0.25 / 0.649

This really was a pretty solid defensive unit.  I'll produce the numbers to prove it at some point, but a 0.649 S&P in close games is pretty good.

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