The Big 12-SEC Challenge
by The Boy
on Sep 28, 2008 3:46 PM CDT
in National Football 2008
After yesterday's action, which left me with the thought that there are about 4-5 actually good teams in the country, I thought it was time to discuss one thing in particular: is the SEC really infinitely better than any other conference? The reason I'm thinking of this right now is easy: Ole Miss won in Gainesville yesterday, and the settling conventional wisdom seems to be that "this is proof of how great the SEC really is" instead of "Maybe Florida's not that great this year." Meanwhile, Auburn vs Tennessee was a battle of two positively horrendous offenses. How bad are some of the offenses in the SEC? I'm confident in saying that any starting QB in the Big 12 could start for these two "strong programs", along with about six others. That's right--if Austen Arnaud were Auburn's starting QB, they'd be a better team than they are right now. And hell...if Zac Robinson played for Auburn, they'd be a Top 5 team bar none. And he's probably the Big 12's sixth-best QB!
I figured the best way to see if SEC really is head-and-shoulders above everybody else was to do a basketball-style "conference challenge". You know how it works. I was too impatient to wait for the polls to come out, so the 1-12 ranking are based completely on my own subjectivity. And we'll assume every matchup is played at a neutral site as close to directly in between the schools as possible.
Big 12
- Oklahoma
- Missouri
- Texas
- Texas Tech
- Kansas
- Oklahoma State
- Nebraska
- Colorado
- Baylor
- Kansas State
- Iowa State
- Texas A&M
SEC
- Alabama
- LSU
- Georgia
- Florida
- Auburn
- Vanderbilt
- Ole Miss
- Kentucky
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
- Mississippi State
- Arkansas
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Beyond the Box Score: SEC Edition (Part Two)
by The Boy
on Aug 3, 2008 9:00 AM CDT
in National Football 2008
We pick up today where Part One left off: with the West Division.
West Division
LSU (6-2)
Game-Changing Stats
- Pass Defense.
- Total Defense, Passing Downs.
- Total Defense, close games.
- Total Offense, 1st Downs.
Top Ranks
#2: Defensive 1st Down S&P+.
#2: Offensive 1st Down Line Yards+.
#3: Defensive 2nd Down S&P+, Passing.
#3: Defensive EqPts+.
Bottom Ranks
#91: Defensive Q3 S&P+, Passing.
#85: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+, Rushing.
#65: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Passing.
#60: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+.
How far does "They're LSU" get you? The #1 thing that impacted LSU's success in 2007 was pass defense. Overall, their pass defense numbers were great, but they had some Passing Down breakdowns here and there, and it sometimes kept opponents in games. So now All-American safety Craig Steltz is gone, stud CBs Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon are gone...and all that remains is a whole mess of young 4- and 5-star recruits. They're LSU, after all. Phil Steele projects their starting secondary to be a senior FS (Curtis Taylor), two sophomores (Jai Eugene, Chad Jones) and a freshman (Patrick Johnson). You know that these players will end up strong one day, but...well, how much did an inexperienced pass D hold Florida back in 2007?
The one thing LSU will have that Florida didn't last year is an insanely good defensive line. It's amazing how much better you cover when opposing QBs only have about 1.5 seconds to find a target. DEs Kirston Pittman and Tyson Jackson return, as does DT Marlon Favorite. Granted, they have to replace new Kansas City Chief Glenn Dorsey, but...his replacement was the defensive MVP in the national title game last year. Folks are assuming that Ricky Jean-Francois is ready to dominate every bit as much as Dorsey did last year, and he's done nothing to prove that the assumptions are incorrect...as long as he can stay on the field (he was under academic suspension for the entire 2007 regular season). With possibly the best DL in the country, the DBs shouldn't find themselves in too many awkward situations.
As for their offense (particularly their 1st-down offense)...well, when you lose your leading rusher (Jacob Hester), it's nice to have the option of replacing him with any number of guys (Keiland Williams, Trindon Holliday, Charles Scott, Richard Murphy) who averaged well over 6 yards per carry. It's also nice to have them running behind one of the best OL's in the country.
Summary: Really, the only reason LSU's not a runaway #1 pick in 2008 is that Ryan Perrilloux went and got himself kicked off the team, and LSU's starting QB will either be a RSFr (Jarrett Lee), a true Fr (Jordan Jefferson), or a Harvard transfer (Andrew Hatch). But let's be honest--Matt Flynn wasn't exactly Joe Montana. LSU's QB just has to not be a liability, and whoever wins this job should do fine in that regard.
Verdict: When Perrilloux got kicked off the team, LSU fell a bit further in everybody's rankings...I saw them pretty consistently in the #8-11 range, and as a fan of a fellow Top 10 team, I was hoping those projections were correct. But this is still going to be a really, really good team. I can see a QB mistake or pass defense breakdown costing them a shot at the national title, but from week to week there's still no other West team this good.
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