It was a strange, strange year for Colorado in '07.  On its face--a lackluster offense and sporadically strong defense leading a team to a 6-7 season--seems anything but strange...predictable, even.  But with upsets of Oklahoma and Texas Tech bunched around a loss to Iowa State and a pummeling by Kansas State...plus a close call against woeful Colorado State and an attempted 2005 Missouri 'disappearing act' impersonation in the Independence Bowl (except they sucked a little too long and didn't come back quite enough)...this was not your typical .500(ish) season.  And the numbers pretty much show you the same thing.

Initial Stat Onslaught

EqPts Scores by Game

9/1: Colorado State 30.1, Colorado 14.4 (actual score: 28-31)
9/8: Arizona State 25.2, Colorado 6.4 (33-14)
9/15: Colorado 8.7, Florida State 8.2 (6-16)
9/22: Colorado 46.2, Miami-OH 2.7 (42-0)
9/29: Colorado 21.0, Oklahoma 8.2 (27-24)
10/6: Baylor 23.8, Colorado 21.1 (23-43)
10/13: Kansas State 25.9, Colorado 14.1 (47-20)
10/20: Colorado 18.9, Kansas 14.8 (14-19)
10/27: Texas Tech 25.9, Colorado 24.3 (26-31)
11/3: Missouri 47.6, Colorado -1.6 (55-10)
11/10: Colorado 23.3, Iowa State 21.9 (28-31)
11/23: Colorado 46.6, Nebraska 43.9 (65-51)
12/30: Colorado 26.4, Alabama 16.6 (24-30)

A crazy year for the Buffs.  They won three games they should have lost (Colorado State, Baylor, Texas Tech), and they lost four games they should have won (Florida State, Kansas, Iowa State, Alabama).  Of course, this is what happens when you play six games that are decided by a TD or less.  Close games are determined as much by special teams, turnovers, and luck as anything else.

The '+' Numbers...

Offense

EqPts+: 91.86 (#76 in the country)
Rushing EqPts+: 96.59 (#67)
Passing EqPts+: 91.64 (#66)

S&P+: 89.40 (#87)
Rushing S&P+: 84.74 (#91)
Passing S&P+: 92.29 (#76)

S&P+ (close): 94.84 (#74)
Rushing S&P+ (close): 69.58 (#115)
Passing S&P+ (close): 107.22 (#47)

Q1 S&P+: 93.07 (#77)
Q2 S&P+: 95.92 (#71)
Q3 S&P+: 95.67 (#74)
Q4 S&P+: 78.76 (#108)

1st Down S&P+: 92.88 (#85)
2nd Down S&P+: 89.60 (#85)
3rd Down S&P+: 69.65 (#100)

Passing Downs S&P+: 96.84 (#63)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+:89.71 (#97)

Line Yards+: 86.88 (#112)
Line Yards+ (close): 82.47 (#115)

Rather confusing numbers here.  In close games, Colorado was actually a decent passing team and an absolutely wretched rushing team.  EqPts-wise, though, they were entirely average in both rushing and passing.  I think the story this tells is that Colorado scored when they were set up well by their defense/special teams. 

In all, though, the other story this tells is that Colorado's offense was really not very good at all.  And that's backed up somewhat by this quiz question: name another returning CU offensive player besides Cody Nolte-Hawkins.  You probably can't do it.  If you can, it's probably WR Josh Smith that you name...and you only know him because his cousin is Darrell Scott.  There will be all sorts of playing time available to redshirt freshmen and incoming recruits...to say the least.

Defense

EqPts+: 97.73 (#71)
Rushing EqPts+: 79.92 (#84)
Passing EqPts+: 118.82 (#35)

S&P+: 96.09 (#72)
Rushing S&P+: 83.14 (#88)
Passing S&P+: 96.09 (#72)

S&P+ (close): 104.94 (#57)
Rushing S&P+ (close): 111.27 (#42)
Passing S&P+ (close): 100.86 (#63)

Q1 S&P+: 124.34 (#20)
Q2 S&P+: 105.74 (#43)
Q3 S&P+: 89.82 (#82)
Q4 S&P+: 122.52 (#14)

1st Down S&P+: 95.69 (#67)
2nd Down S&P+: 115.71 (#29)
3rd Down S&P+: 117.01 (#29)

Passing Downs S&P+: 114.50 (#37)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+: 101.02 (#56)

Line Yards+: 97.75 (#60)
Line Yards+ (close): 106.00 (#41)

So CU returns most of its leading tacklers outside of Jordan Dizon.  In a bit, we'll take a look at who made the big plays for CU when CU was actually making big plays, but...I think what these numbers are telling us is that...well, CU didn't really make many big plays.  They were good in the first quarter (Mizzou can attest to that)...they were good on 2nd and 3rd downs...but a team with patience (i.e. a team that didn't crumble if at first they didn't succeed in Q1, and a team that took the yards given to them on first down) could more or less move the ball at will against the Buffs.

This team reached 6 wins and a bowl, mostly by a) performing pretty well when the game was close (but when the wheels fell off, they really fell off), and b) taking advantage of the opportunities they got.  Over a 60-minute span, though, this was a mediocre squad.  Lucky for Dan Hawkins, he appears to be recruiting well.

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