(Photo courtesy Jonathan Brownfield, MUTigers.com)

Well, I'm absolutely soaked after the floods came on the walk back to the car after Mizzou's 69-17 thrashing of Nevada, so I'll go ahead and open up this thread for postgame reaction while I head off to take a shower.

The postgame podcast should be posted sometime soon, and Good, Bad, and Indifferent will be available after the jump on this post later in the day.

UPDATE, by rptgwb at 5:37 p.m.: Good, Bad, Indifferent now after the jump.

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We start with recruiting news: granted, a certain basketball commit from the weekend visitor list would be the best news, but this is pretty good: Houston DE Terrance Lloyd is a Tiger.  He's the 15th known commitment for Mizzou and the 3rd Texas DE on the list (though I wouldn't be shocked if Marvin Foster ended up a DT...actually I'd be surprised if he didn't), strangely enough.

Another recruiting link: Ashton Glaser's ready to compete at Mizzou.  Good to know.  And yes, Beef, it's A-s-h-t-o-n (like Demi Cougar Moore's boy) G-l-a-s-e-r (like, uhh, the donut?).

Nevada Links!

• Mutigers.com has the official release: "Tiger Head Coach Gary Pinkel definitely has a history with Nevada, however, as he went 3-0 versus the Wolfpack and their coach, Chris Ault, while at Toledo. His Rockets defeated Nevada twice in the 1995 season, winning a 49-35 game at Nevada early in the year, and then claiming a 40-37 overtime win that same season in the 1995 Las Vegas Bowl. That game had historical significance, as it was the first-ever overtime game played in Division I, after the new rule had been placed into effect just prior to bowl season that year. Toledo also took a 31-13 win over Nevada in Toledo in 1997."
• An injury update from Pinkel: "William Moore will be in a red pullover tomorrow practicing. That protects him to let players know he has an issue or problem, and they react accordingly. He's looking pretty good, but we'll see tomorrow for sure. (SR Defensive Back) Tru Vaughns has a turned ankle, he is questionable right now."
• That's right, Danario Alexander is off the injured list.
• The Missourian looks at what Nevada has to offer: "The plan on the other side of the ball is for the Tigers to find a way to stop Nevada's fifth-ranked rushing offense. The Wolf Pack will play without last year's Western Athletic Conference rushing champion, Luke Lippincott, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL tear."

Here's a big duh: William Moore's return will help the secondary.

It's Like Father, Unlike Son!

Dave Matter's got some Big 12 Notes for you.  Also, from his blog...

Pinkel and Eberflus aren’t very concerned with Missouri’s sagging pass defense stats. Through two weeks, the Tigers are last in the Big 12, giving up 350.5 yards per game. Pinkel pointed out two factors that can sometimes throw off passing numbers: “When you get out to a huge lead in games, people throw the ball more. And when you’re good at stopping the run, people are going to throw the ball more.” Eberflus has always said the stats he looks at most are scoring defense (the Tigers are ninth in the league), rushing defense (fourth) and turnover margin (second). Stats are pretty hollow this time of year, especially when Missouri’s the only Big 12 team that’s played a BCS bowl team from a year ago. Still, some of those SEMO receivers were mighty open.

Gary Pinkel "has his reasons" for burning Blaine Gabbert's redshirt.  Just don't ask him if he's preparing for next year.

Caitlyn Vann: Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week.

This is a bit old now, but Max Scherzer's ridiculous '11 K's, 1 BB' performance against the Dodgers the other day shouldn't go without mention...

Finally, this link comes from The Beef...check out who's made his way onto the Dallas Cowboys' staff...it's Brian Stewart!  Yes, that Brian Stewart...

via images.pictopia.com.edgesuite.net (Joel Kowsky, MUTigers.com)

Overflow thread for immediate reaction. Analysis to come in the form of the postgame podcast some time in the next 24 hours.

**SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE, by rptgwb: Good, Bad, and Indifferent now added after the jump. And I promise it doesn't just say "Good: Mizzou, Bad: SEMO."

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We're going to set up projections the same way we did for Illinois (I will not give SEMO the short shrift!), only to get enough of a sample size, I'm not going with SEMO, but with "FCS Tier 6", the estimated amalgamation of the worst FCS teams to play D1 opponents in 2007.  (I've explained this before, but basically I combined the 1-AA/FCS teams into six tiers and grouped their stats together thusly.)

So without further adieu...

Mizzou-SEMO Projections

Mizzou Rushing

• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
• FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 19.77
• Projection #1: 35.34
• FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts+: 50.18
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 32.30

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 33.82

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

Mizzou Passing

• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
• FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 17.32
• Projection #1: 25.90
  
• FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts+: 45.11
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 40.79
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 33.35

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

SEMO Rushing

• FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts+: 47.00
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 3.90
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
• FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.57
• Projection #2: 4.98

Projected SEMO Rushing Output: 4.44

Adjusted for 2008: 2.50 (I liked what I saw against Illinois)

SEMO Passing

• FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts+: 38.82
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 4.71
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
• FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 4.44
• Projection #2: 3.15

Projected SEMO Passing Output: 3.93

Adjusted for 2008: 4.50 (are the troubles with Mizzou's Passing D enough to accidentally give up a long pass to SEMO at some point?)

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Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 56.0, SEMO 7.0

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So after taking a day to digest what happened in St. Louis, I whipped out the TiVo to try to figure out exactly what most Mizzou fans were thinking: what the hell went wrong with our pass defense?

I went back through Juice's first four touchdown passes (before my TiVo cut out) to try to assess what the scheme was, what went wrong, and who exactly was to blame.

TOUCHDOWN PASS NO. 1:

The situation is stated in the top left corner of the diagram. Mizzou leads 7-0 but Illinois has worked into MU territory. The Illini line up in the Gun, with Dufrene left of Juice, a split end out wide on the left, a tight end to the right, and Judson and an unspecified slot receiver on the right. The left side of the field, both offense and defense, is unidentifiable but is also fairly inconsequential during the course of the play. 

The play begins with a playfake from Juice to Dufrene, which at first appears to suck in Sean Weatherspoon. As the play develops though, Spoon shuffles along the line of scrimmage, showing himself  to be playing a QB spy. Brock Christopher sits in a zone to take away the middle of the field.

The secondary is where the problem begins to occur. William Moore, lined up on the slot receiver before the snap, is sent on a nickel back blitz. This leaves safety Justin Garrett in man on the slot receiver (who I think was Arrelious Benn), who runs a post route and forces Garrett to the middle of the field. This route keeps Garrett from providing any support over the top, leaving Kevin Rutland in man-on-man with Will Judson on the right sideline. Judson barely gets by Rutland and goes up to make a great catch for the touchdown.

Here's the kicker, though. The coverage from Rutland was OUTSTANDING. But here's the thing about playing defensive back - you can be in perfect position and be step-for-step with the receiver, and if you don't make a play on the ball, it doesn't mean squat. Rutland NEVER looks back at the ball, giving Judson a chance to go up over him and get it.

Moore and/or Eberflus can be faulted for the ineffectiveness of the blitz, as Willy Mo is easily picked up by the IU O-Line. Moore is officially taken out of the play, but at the speed that this play developed, I'm not sure that it would have mattered.

VERDICT: Eberflus sent Moore on the blitz hoping that either A) Willy Mo would get to Juice first or B) Garrett and Rutland would be able to hold their own in man coverage. He was wrong about Part A, and very nearly right about Part B. This one is pretty much ALL on Rutland. A good defensive back has to have an innate sense of when the ball is in the air and show the ability to go up and make a play on it.

Breakdowns of the next three TD passes after the jump.

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