Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW
by The Boy
on Sep 30, 2008 11:00 AM CDT
in Beyond the Box Score
We had a bye week, and there's no game for me to review...so let's go ahead and talk about Nebraska, shall we?
So the NCAA.org site from which I get my play-by-plays is screwing me this week, as half their games from last week aren't in the database correctly yet. That's preventing me from having the up-to-date '+' numbers I was hoping to have for conference play. Oh well, I guess. Instead, what you get is one monster BTBS season box score for both Mizzou and Nebraska. And after the jump, I'll play with projections the way I have been for the other '08 games so far.
If you have any questions about these numbers, please ask them. At some point I'll get to the new BTBS Glossary I've promised...but it hasn't happened yet. And if your eyes glaze over looking at numbers, check out the bullets after the box.
Nebraska |
Opponents |
Missouri |
Opponents |
|
| 59.4% | % Close | 51.9% | ||
| 45.7% | 54.3% | Field Position % | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 71.2% | 67.4% | Leverage % | 76.2% | 66.6% |
| Total | ||||
| 243 | 282 | Plays | 290 | 317 |
| 114.58 | 81.79 | EqPts | 163.85 | 87.14 |
| 46.5% | 38.7% | Success Rate | 58.3% | 38.8% |
| 0.47 | 0.29 | PPP | 0.57 | 0.27 |
| 0.937 | 0.677 | S&P | 1.148 | 0.663 |
| Close Games | ||||
| 141 | 171 | Plays | 182 | 133 |
| 67.07 | 49.82 | EqPts | 108.33 | 35.11 |
| 44.7% | 40.9% | Success Rate | 59.9% | 37.6% |
| 0.48 | 0.29 | PPP | 0.60 | 0.26 |
| 0.922 | 0.701 | S&P | 1.194 | 0.640 |
| Rushing | ||||
| 46.94 | 36.55 | EqPts | 60.64 | 21.96 |
| 42.4% | 36.3% | Success Rate | 51.9% | 37.4% |
| 0.38 | 0.27 | PPP | 0.47 | 0.17 |
| 0.800 | 0.634 | S&P | 0.989 | 0.542 |
| 2.82 | 2.52 | Line Yds/carry | 3.31 | 2.23 |
| Passing | ||||
| 67.64 | 45.24 | EqPts | 103.21 | 65.18 |
| 50.8% | 40.8% | Success Rate | 63.4% | 39.8% |
| 0.57 | 0.31 | PPP | 0.64 | 0.35 |
| 1.082 | 0.716 | S&P | 1.275 | 0.748 |
| Non-Passing Downs | ||||
| 54.3% | 45.3% | Success Rate | 62.9% | 44.5% |
| 0.53 | 0.31 | PPP | 0.60 | 0.31 |
| 1.071 | 0.766 | S&P | 1.228 | 0.754 |
| Passing Downs | ||||
| 27.1% | 25.0% | Success Rate | 43.5% | 27.4% |
| 0.33 | 0.24 | PPP | 0.46 | 0.21 |
| 0.605 | 0.491 | S&P | 0.890 | 0.481 |
| Turnovers | ||||
| 7 | 6 | Total | 5 | 7 |
| 11.66 | 18.12 | Points Lost | 14.68 | 18.27 |
| 23.69 | 18.12 | Points Given | 12.31 | 33.76 |
| 35.35 | 36.24 | Total T/O Pts | 26.99 | 52.03 |
| +0.89 | -0.89 | T/O Pts Margin | +25.04 | -25.04 |
| Q1 | ||||
| 46.8% | 42.9% | Success Rate | 60.8% | 41.5% |
| 0.49 | 0.30 | PPP | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| 0.957 | 0.727 | S&P | 1.254 | 0.667 |
| Q2 | ||||
| 42.6% | 40.8% | Success Rate | 62.0% | 38.6% |
| 0.45 | 0.27 | PPP | 0.65 | 0.26 |
| 0.880 | 0.680 | S&P | 1.272 | 0.650 |
| Q3 | ||||
| 49.1% | 46.5% | Success Rate | 61.5% | 37.8% |
| 0.49 | 0.31 | PPP | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| 0.982 | 0.779 | S&P | 1.212 | 0.704 |
| Q4 | ||||
| 47.7% | 25.0% | Success Rate | 46.8% | 37.8% |
| 0.46 | 0.28 | PPP | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| 0.932 | 0.528 | S&P | 0.789 | 0.638 |
| 1st Downs | ||||
| 55.3% | 41.5% | Success Rate | 61.1% | 43.3% |
| 0.59 | 0.31 | PPP | 1.01 | 0.34 |
| 1.138 | 0.723 | S&P | 1.623 | 0.773 |
| 2nd Downs | ||||
| 38.9% | 34.8% | Success Rate | 60.2% | 34.0% |
| 0.41 | 0.21 | PPP | 0.53 | 0.22 |
| 0.800 | 0.561 | S&P | 1.131 | 0.561 |
| 3rd Downs | ||||
| 35.6% | 38.5% | Success Rate | 48.8% | 34.3% |
| 0.29 | 0.32 | PPP | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| 0.642 | 0.708 | S&P | 0.936 | 0.553 |
Thoughts...
- Nebraska has actually lost the field position battle (Field Position % = plays you've run in your opponent's territory vs plays they've run in your territory) so far this year. They've come up with some big plays so far, but that's a little bit alarming. Some teams are really good at the bend-don't-break thing, but it's a dangerous game.
- Less than 1/4 of Missouri's plays are Passing Downs. Oh yeah, and they're just about the best in the country at converting Passing Downs.
- Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.
- Mizzou's only giving up 2.23 Line Yards per carry. I thought it would be higher than that, even against relatively weak competition. That's a stout run defense right there.
- Nebraska's passing game is downright solid, especially considering Joe Ganz only has one 'shows up every game' weapon at his disposal, Nate "Remember Me?" Swift.
- Oh yeah, and Mizzou's 1.275 Passing S&P is unbelievable.
- If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.
- Mizzou is the poster child for why Turnover Points Margin is so much more telling than Turnover Margin. What happens when you put up 3 INT's for TD in 4 games? You average a more than 6-point turnover advantage per game.
- Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team. They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.
- Meanwhile, their defense is pretty stout in Q4. Don't know if that's because of the competition or not, but let's just go ahead and make sure this game is out of reach in Q3, shall we?
- Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3. We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off. They start fast and stay fast. Their Q4 numbers are down, but put little stock in that--they've only played their starters in Q4 in 2 of 4 games. They weren't wonderful offensively against Illinois in Q4, but that's a quite small sample size, no?
- Mizzou's offense is RIDICULOUS on first downs. A 1.623 S&P? Seriously?
- The game could be made or broken on third downs. Nebraska is -0.062 S&P on third downs (0.642 on offense, 0.708 on defense), while Mizzou is +0.383. You have to figure that home field advantage is most apparent on third downs, so Mizzou's advantage will shrink because of that...but that's still pretty significant right there.
Alright, projections after the jump...
31 comments
| 0 recs
|
